Early Detection of Emergent Events Based on an Extremal Process Approach

2000 Mathematics Subject Classification: Primary 60G70, 62F03.

Early detection of delirium in older medical inpatients: prodrome, predictors and motor subtyping

Background Delirium is highly prevalent, especially in older patients. It independently leads to adverse outcomes, but remains under-detected, particularly hypoactive forms. Although early identification and intervention is important, delirium prevention is key to improving outcomes. The delirium prodrome concept has been mooted for decades, but remains poorly characterised. Greater understanding of this prodrome would promote prompt identification of delirium-prone patients, and facilitate improved strategies for delirium prevention and management. Methods Medical inpatients of ≥70 years were screened for prevalent delirium using the Revised Delirium Rating Scale (DRS--‐R98). Those without prevalent delirium were assessed daily for delirium development, prodromal features and motor subtype. Survival analysis models identified which prodromal features predicted the emergence of incident delirium in the cohort in the first week of admission. The Delirium Motor Subtype Scale-4 was used to ascertain motor subtype. Results Of 555 patients approached, 191 patients were included in the prospective study. The median age was 80 (IQR 10) and 101 (52.9%) were male. Sixty-one patients developed incident delirium within a week of admission. Several prodromal features predicted delirium emergence in the cohort. Firstly, using a novel Prodromal Checklist based on the existing literature, and controlling for confounders, seven predictive behavioural features were identified in the prodromal period (for example, increasing confusion; and being easily distractible). Additionally, using serial cognitive tests and the DRS-R98 daily, multiple cognitive and other core delirium features were detected in the prodrome (for example inattention; and sleep-wake cycle disturbance). Examining longitudinal motor subtypes in delirium cases, subtypes were found to be predominantly stable over time, the most prevalent being hypoactive subtype (62.3%). Discussion This thesis explored multiple aspects of delirium in older medical inpatients, with particular focus on the characterisation of the delirium prodrome. These findings should help to inform future delirium educational programmes, and detection and prevention strategies.

An investigation into the utility of the Mini Addenbrooke's Cognitive Examination (M-ACE) for the early detection of dementia and mild cognitive impairment in people aged 75 and over

Background/Aims: The Mini Addenbrooke’s Cognitive Examination (M-ACE) is the abbreviated version of the widely-used Addenbrooke’s Cognitive Examination (ACE-III), a cognitive screening tool that is used internationally in the assessment of mild cognitive impairment (MCI) and dementia. The objectives of this study were to investigate the diagnostic accuracy of the M-ACE with individuals aged 75 and over to distinguish between those who do and do not have a dementia or MCI, and also to establish whether the cut-off scores recommended by Hsieh et al. (2014) [9] in the original validation study for the M-ACE are optimal for this age group. Methods: The M-ACE was administered to 58 participants (24 with a diagnosis of dementia, 17 with a diagnosis of MCI and 17 healthy controls). The extent to which scores distinguished between groups (dementia, MCI or no diagnosis) was explored using receiver operating characteristic curve analysis. Results: The optimal cut-off for detecting dementia was ≤ 21/30 (score ≤ 21/30 indicating dementia with a sensitivity of 0.95, a specificity of 1 and a positive predictive value of 1) compared to the original higher published cut-off of ≤ 25/30 (sensitivity of 0.95, specificity of 0.70 and a positive predictive value of 0.82 in this sample). Conclusions: The M-ACE has excellent diagnostic accuracy for the detection of dementia in a UK clinical sample. It may be necessary to consider lower cut-offs than those given in the original validation study.

Advances in skin cancer early detection and diagnosis

OBJECTIVES: To provide an overview of 1) traditional methods of skin cancer early detection, 2) current technologies for skin cancer detection, and 3) evolving practice models of early detection. DATA SOURCES: Peer-reviewed databased articles and reviews, scholarly texts, and Web-based resources. CONCLUSION: Early detection of skin cancer through established methods or newer technologies is critical for reducing both skin cancer mortality and the overall skin cancer burden. IMPLICATIONS FOR NURSING PRACTICE: A basic knowledge of recommended skin examination guidelines and risk factors for skin cancer, traditional methods to further examine lesions that are suspicious for skin cancer and evolving detection technologies can guide patient education and skin inspection decisions.

Serum proteomic abnormality predating screen detection of ovarian cancer

Ovarian cancer is characterized by vague, non-specific symptoms, advanced stage at diagnosis and poor overall survival. A nested case control study was undertaken on stored serial serum samples from women who developed ovarian cancer and healthy controls (matched for serum processing and storage conditions as well as attributes such as age) in a pilot randomized controlled trial of ovarian cancer screening. The unique feature of this study is that the women were screened for up to 7 years. The serum samples underwent prefractionation using a reversed-phase batch extraction protocol prior to MALDI-TOF MS data acquisition. Our exploratory analysis shows that combining a single MS peak with CA125 allows statistically significant discrimination at the 5% level between cases and controls up to 12 months in advance of the original diagnosis of ovarian cancer. Such combinations work much better than a single peak or CA125 alone. This paper demonstrates that mass spectra from the low molecular weight serum proteome carry information useful for early detection of ovarian cancer. The next step is to identify the specific biomarkers that make early detection possible.

Proteomics-driven approach for the detection of breast cancer biomarkers

Breast cancer (BC) is the most often diagnosed cancer entity of women worldwide. No molecular biomarkers are usable in the clinical routine for the early detection of BC. Proteomics is one of the dynamic tools for the successful examination of changes on the protein level. In this thesis different proteomics-based investigations were performed for the detection of protein and autoantibody biomarkers in serum samples of BC and healthy (CTRL) subjects. First, protein levels of candidates from previous profiling studies were investigated via antibody-microarray platform. Three proteins were found in distinct levels in both groups: secretoglobin family 1D member 1, alpha-2 macroglobulin and inter-alpha-trypsin inhibitor heavy chain family member 4. The second part was dedicated to the de novo exploration of potentially immunogenic tumor antigens (TA’s) with immunoprecipitation and Western immunoblotting followed by identification over mass spectrometry. Autoantibody levels were verified in individual serum profiling via the protein microarray platform. Two autoantibody’ cohorts (anti-Histone 2B and anti-Recoverin) were found in different levels in both groups. The findings of this PhD thesis underline deregulated serum protein and autoantibody levels in the presence of BC. Further investigations are needed to confirm the results in an independent study population.

Development of an electrochemical biosensor for the detection of miRNA-155 in Breast Cancer

Breast cancer is one of the most prevalent forms of cancer in women. Despite all recent advances in early diagnosis and therapy, mortality data is not decreasing. This is an outcome of the inexistence of validated serum biomarkers allowing an early prognosis, out coming from the limited understanding of the natural history of the disease. In this context, miRNAs have been attracting a special interest throughout the scientific community as promising biomarkers in the early diagnosis of cancer. In breast cancer, several miRNAs and their levels of expression are significantly different between normal tissue and tissue with neoplasia, as well as between different molecular subtypes of breast cancer, also associated with prognosis. Thus, this these presents a meta-analysis that allows identifying a reliable miRNA biomarker for the early detection of breast cancer. In this, miRNA-155 was identified as the best one and an electrochemical biosensor was developed for its detection in serum samples. The biosensor was assembled by following three button-up stages: (1) the complementary miRNA sequence thiol terminated (anti-miRNA-155) was immobilized on a commercial gold screen-printed electrode (Au-SPE), followed by (2) blocking non-specific binding with mercaptosuccinic acid and by (3) miRNA hybridization. The biosensor was able to detect miRNA concentrations lying in the 10-18 mol/L (aM) range, displaying a linear response from 10 aM to 1nM. The device showed a limit of detection of 5.7 aM in human serum samples and good selectivity against other biomolecules in serum, such as cancer antigen CA-15.3 and bovine serum albumin (BSA). Overall, this simple and sensitive strategy is a promising approach for the quantitative and/or simultaneous analysis of multiple miRNA in physiological fluids, aiming at further biomedical research devoted to biomarker monitoring and point-of-care diagnosis.

Factors influencing the impact of primary and secondary prevention strategies for cervical cancer among Queensland women

Since the introduction of the National Human Papillomavirus Vaccine Program (NHPVP) in 2007, few studies have assessed women's knowledge, beliefs and attitudes towards cervical screening and human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccination in Australia. It is imperative to ascertain this, as substantial changes are anticipated to the National Cervical Screening Program (NCSP) through a process called 'the Renewal', to ensure any changes that are introduced will be acceptable and well understood by women. The objectives of this study were to describe Queensland women's current knowledge of cervical cancer/screening and HPV, their beliefs and attitudes towards Pap smears and the HPV vaccine and seek their advice on effective methods for communicating changes to the NCSP in their communities. This research was a descriptive-exploratory study that incorporated a combination of qualitative and quantitative methods within the context of the Health Belief Model (HBM). A computer-assisted telephone interview (CATI) survey of 1002 Queensland women was conducted in Phase 1 of the study. During Phase 2 of the study, 23 focus groups were conducted throughout Queensland to gather in-depth information about women's knowledge, awareness and acceptance about cervical cancer prevention strategies. This study found high levels of awareness of HPV (over 60%) and the HPV vaccine (over 86%) amongst Queensland women. However, it also identified considerable uncertainty amongst participants about perceived susceptibility to cervical cancer, especially, the link between cervical cancer, HPV and sexual activity. Women also had limited understanding of the benefit of the Pap smear as a preventative strategy, with many women thinking the main purpose of the Pap smear was for the early detection of cancer. Despite high awareness of HPV, women participating in this study also had significant knowledge deficits about their susceptibility to HPV and the severity of HPV infection. Queensland women had high levels of awareness of the HPV vaccine, which was most commonly via the media. High acceptance of the HPV vaccine was found amongst participants although awareness of the full benefits of vaccination was not evident with little acknowledgement that the quadrivalent vaccine used in the NHPVP would also prevent genital warts. Extensive barriers to having Pap smears, including physical and psychological discomfort, were identified and the most common barriers to vaccination were concerns about side effects and a lack of information upon which to make a decision about consent. Women described enablers for screening participation, such as reminder systems and practitioner characteristics, and expressed positive views towards self collected testing as an enabler, particularly for women who did not attend screening. As this study was conducted with Queensland women it may therefore not be representative of women from other parts of Australia and as participants were more likely to report they were regular screeners than Queensland women overall, these results may not be representative of women least likely to participate in cervical screening. The use of self-reported cervical screening history may also have led to over-reporting of screening status and previous abnormalities by participants. This study reveals significant gaps in Queensland women's knowledge that require effective communication strategies to address. Recommendations from this study highlight the need for increased community education to raise awareness about primary and secondary cervical cancer prevention strategies, training of cervical screening providers in sensitive examination techniques, a reduction in costs associated with screening, the exploration of alternative service models and communication plans that incorporate methods women trust and recommend for disseminating information about changes to the NCSP. This study is the first large study to explore women's perceptions of the Pap smear and barriers to screening, their knowledge about HPV and their attitudes towards the HPV vaccine in Queensland, since the introduction of the NHPVP. It highlights considerable uncertainty about many aspects of cervical cancer and primary and secondary prevention strategies available in Australia and identified many barriers to cervical screening and concerns about HPV vaccination. These knowledge gaps and barriers need to be taken into account and addressed within the context of anticipated changes to the NCSP to ensure benefits are maximised for women in future primary and secondary cervical cancer prevention strategies in the Australian context.

Towards a field-compatible optical spectroscopic device for cervical cancer screening in resource-limited settings: effects of calibration and pressure.

Quantitative optical spectroscopy has the potential to provide an effective low cost, and portable solution for cervical pre-cancer screening in resource-limited communities. However, clinical studies to validate the use of this technology in resource-limited settings require low power consumption and good quality control that is minimally influenced by the operator or variable environmental conditions in the field. The goal of this study was to evaluate the effects of two sources of potential error: calibration and pressure on the extraction of absorption and scattering properties of normal cervical tissues in a resource-limited setting in Leogane, Haiti. Our results show that self-calibrated measurements improved scattering measurements through real-time correction of system drift, in addition to minimizing the time required for post-calibration. Variations in pressure (tested without the potential confounding effects of calibration error) caused local changes in vasculature and scatterer density that significantly impacted the tissue absorption and scattering properties Future spectroscopic systems intended for clinical use, particularly where operator training is not viable and environmental conditions unpredictable, should incorporate a real-time self-calibration channel and collect diffuse reflectance spectra at a consistent pressure to maximize data integrity.

Importance of prostate volume in the European Randomised Study of Screening for Prostate Cancer (ERSPC) risk calculators: results from the prostate biopsy collaborative group.

OBJECTIVES: To compare the predictive performance and potential clinical usefulness of risk calculators of the European Randomized Study of Screening for Prostate Cancer (ERSPC RC) with and without information on prostate volume. METHODS: We studied 6 cohorts (5 European and 1 US) with a total of 15,300 men, all biopsied and with pre-biopsy TRUS measurements of prostate volume. Volume was categorized into 3 categories (25, 40, and 60 cc), to reflect use of digital rectal examination (DRE) for volume assessment. Risks of prostate cancer were calculated according to a ERSPC DRE-based RC (including PSA, DRE, prior biopsy, and prostate volume) and a PSA + DRE model (including PSA, DRE, and prior biopsy). Missing data on prostate volume were completed by single imputation. Risk predictions were evaluated with respect to calibration (graphically), discrimination (AUC curve), and clinical usefulness (net benefit, graphically assessed in decision curves). RESULTS: The AUCs of the ERSPC DRE-based RC ranged from 0.61 to 0.77 and were substantially larger than the AUCs of a model based on only PSA + DRE (ranging from 0.56 to 0.72) in each of the 6 cohorts. The ERSPC DRE-based RC provided net benefit over performing a prostate biopsy on the basis of PSA and DRE outcome in five of the six cohorts. CONCLUSIONS: Identifying men at increased risk for having a biopsy detectable prostate cancer should consider multiple factors, including an estimate of prostate volume.

Description and predictors of hospital costs of oesophageal cancer during the first year following diagnosis in Northern Ireland

The cost-effectiveness of novel interventions in the treatment of cancer is well researched; however, relatively little attention is paid to the cost of many aspects of routine care. Oesophageal cancer is the ninth most common cancer in the UK and sixth most common cause of cancer death. It usually presents late and has a poor prognosis. The hospital costs incurred by oesophageal cancer patients diagnosed in Northern Ireland in 2005 (n = 198) were determined by review of medical records. The average cost of hospital care per patient in the 12 months from presentation was £7847. Variations in total hospital costs by age at diagnosis, gender, cancer stage, histological type, mortality at 1 year, co-morbidity count and socio-economic status were analysed using multiple regression analyses. Higher costs were associated with earlier stages of cancer and cancer stage remained a significant predictor of costs after controlling for cancer type, patient age and mortality at 1 year. Thus, although early detection of cancer usually improves survival, this would mean increased costs in the first year. Deprivation achieved borderline significance with those from more deprived areas having lower resource consumption relative to the more affluent. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Prospective investigation of body mass index, colorectal adenoma, and colorectal cancer in the prostate, lung, colorectal, and ovarian cancer screening trial

Obesity has consistently been linked to an increased risk of colorectal cancer, particularly among men. Whether body mass index (BMI) differentially influences the risk across the stages of colorectal cancer development remains unclear. We evaluated the associations of BMI with colorectal adenoma incidence, adenoma recurrence, and cancer in the context of a large screening trial, in which cases and controls had an equal chance for disease detection.

Improving follow-up of abnormal cancer screens using electronic health records: trust but verify test result communication.

BACKGROUND: Early detection of colorectal cancer through timely follow-up of positive Fecal Occult Blood Tests (FOBTs) remains a challenge. In our previous work, we found 40% of positive FOBT results eligible for colonoscopy had no documented response by a treating clinician at two weeks despite procedures for electronic result notification. We determined if technical and/or workflow-related aspects of automated communication in the electronic health record could lead to the lack of response. METHODS: Using both qualitative and quantitative methods, we evaluated positive FOBT communication in the electronic health record of a large, urban facility between May 2008 and March 2009. We identified the source of test result communication breakdown, and developed an intervention to fix the problem. Explicit medical record reviews measured timely follow-up (defined as response within 30 days of positive FOBT) pre- and post-intervention. RESULTS: Data from 11 interviews and tracking information from 490 FOBT alerts revealed that the software intended to alert primary care practitioners (PCPs) of positive FOBT results was not configured correctly and over a third of positive FOBTs were not transmitted to PCPs. Upon correction of the technical problem, lack of timely follow-up decreased immediately from 29.9% to 5.4% (p<0.01) and was sustained at month 4 following the intervention. CONCLUSION: Electronic communication of positive FOBT results should be monitored to avoid limiting colorectal cancer screening benefits. Robust quality assurance and oversight systems are needed to achieve this. Our methods may be useful for others seeking to improve follow-up of FOBTs in their systems.