Risco climático, vulnerabilidade socioespacial e eventos climáticos extremos relacionados ao calor e ao frio no estado do Rio Grande do Sul- Brasil

Pós-graduação em Geografia - FCT

External drivers of biogeochemical cycles in a tropical montane forest in Ecuador

Successful conservation of tropical montane forest, one of the most threatened ecosystems on earth, requires detailed knowledge of its biogeochemistry. Of particular interest is the response of the biogeochemical element cycles to external influences such as element deposition or climate change. Therefore the overall objective of my study was to contribute to improved understanding of role and functioning of the Andean tropical montane forest. In detail, my objectives were to determine (1) the role of long-range transported aerosols and their transport mechanisms, and (2) the role of short-term extreme climatic events for the element budget of Andean tropical forest. In a whole-catchment approach including three 8-13 ha microcatchments under tropical montane forest on the east-exposed slope of the eastern cordillera in the south Ecuadorian Andes at 1850-2200 m above sea level I monitored at least in weekly resolution the concentrations and fluxes of Ca, Mg, Na, K, NO3-N, NH4-N, DON, P, S, TOC, Mn, and Al in bulk deposition, throughfall, litter leachate, soil solution at the 0.15 and 0.3 m depths, and runoff between May 1998 and April 2003. I also used meteorological data from my study area collected by cooperating researchers and the Brazilian meteorological service (INPE), as well as remote sensing products of the North American and European space agencies NASA and ESA. My results show that (1) there was a strong interannual variation in deposition of Ca [4.4-29 kg ha-1 a-1], Mg [1.6-12], and K [9.8-30]) between 1998 and 2003. High deposition changed the Ca and Mg budgets of the catchments from loss to retention, suggesting that the additionally available Ca and Mg was used by the ecosystem. Increased base metal deposition was related to dust outbursts of the Sahara and an Amazonian precipitation pattern with trans-regional dry spells allowing for dust transport to the Andes. The increased base metal deposition coincided with a strong La Niña event in 1999/2000. There were also significantly elevated H+, N, and Mn depositions during the annual biomass burning period in the Amazon basin. Elevated H+ deposition during the biomass burning period caused elevated base metal loss from the canopy and the organic horizon and deteriorated already low base metal supply of the vegetation. Nitrogen was only retained during biomass burning but not during non-fire conditions when deposition was much smaller. Therefore biomass burning-related aerosol emissions in Amazonia seem large enough to substantially increase element deposition at the western rim of Amazonia. Particularly the related increase of acid deposition impoverishes already base-metal scarce ecosystems. As biomass burning is most intense during El Niño situations, a shortened ENSO cycle because of global warming likely enhances the acid deposition at my study forest. (2) Storm events causing near-surface water flow through C- and nutrient-rich topsoil during rainstorms were the major export pathway for C, N, Al, and Mn (contributing >50% to the total export of these elements). Near-surface flow also accounted for one third of total base metal export. This demonstrates that storm-event related near-surface flow markedly affects the cycling of many nutrients in steep tropical montane forests. Changes in the rainfall regime possibly associated with global climate change will therefore also change element export from the study forest. Element budgets of Andean tropical montane rain forest proved to be markedly affected by long-range transport of Saharan dust, biomass burning-related aerosols, or strong rainfalls during storm events. Thus, increased acid and nutrient deposition and the global climate change probably drive the tropical montane forest to another state with unknown consequences for its functions and biological diversity.

Calcium isotope ratios from marine barite and carbonate over Paleocene-Eocene Boundary (ODP Sites 1212 and 1221)

Carbonates are invaluable archives of the past, and have been used extensively to reconstruct paleoclimate and paleoceanographic conditions over geologic time scales. Such archives are susceptible to diagenetic alteration via dissolution, recrystallization and secondary precipitation, particularly during ocean acidification events when intense dissolution can occur. Despite the importance of diagenesis on proxy fidelity, the effects of diagenesis on the calcium isotopic composition (d44Ca) of carbonates are unclear. Accordingly, bulk carbonate d44Ca was measured at high resolution in two Pacific deep sea sediment cores (ODP Sites 1212 and 1221) with considerably different dissolution histories over the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM, ~55 Ma). The d44Ca of marine barite was also measured at the deeper Site 1221, which experienced severe carbonate dissolution during the PETM. Large (~0.8 per mil) variations in bulk carbonate d44Ca occur in the deeper site near the peak carbon isotope excursion, and are correlated with a large drop in carbonate weight percent. Such an effect is seen in neither the 1221 barite record nor the bulk carbonate record at the shallower, less dissolved Site 1212. We contend that ocean chemical changes associated with the abrupt and massive carbon release into the ocean-atmosphere system and subsequent ocean acidification at the PETM affected the bulk carbonate d44Ca record via diagenesis in the sedimentary column. Such changes are considerable, and need to be taken into account when interpreting and modeling Ca isotope data over extreme climatic events associated with ocean chemical evolution.

Os impactos na qualidade da água e do solo de um manancial tropical do semiárido devido ao uso e ocupação e evento de seca extrema

Human activities alter soil features, causing the deterioration of its quality. Land use and occupation in drainage basins of water supply reservoirs can change the environmental soil quality and, thus, lead to the expansion of the soil potential of being a diffuse pollution source. In the Brazilian semiarid region, the soils are generally shallow with high susceptibility to erosion, favoring the sediment and nutrients input into the superficial waterbodies, contributing to the eutrophication process. Moreover, this region has high temperatures and high evapotranspiration rates, that are generally higher than the precipitation rates, causing a negative hydric balance and big volume losses by evaporation. The water volume reduction increases the nutrients’ concentration and, therefore, exacerbates the eutrophication process, deteriorating the water quality. Thereby, we hypothesized that the eutrophication process of semiarid reservoirs is intensified both by the extreme climatic events of prolonged drought, and by the diffuse pollution due to the basin land use and occupation. The study aimed to test whether the land use and occupation activities of the basin and the severe drought events intensify the eutrophication process of a semiarid tropical reservoir. To verify the influence of human activities carried out in the water supply of drainage basin on the soil quality and the eutrophication process, we conducted the mapping of the kind of use and occupation, as well the calculation of erosion for each activity and the soil quality evaluation of the riparian zone and water quality of the water supply. For the water analyses, the samplings were carried out monthly in the deeper point, near dam. For the soil, deformed composite samples were taken for the physical and chemical attributes analysis, according to the identified land use and occupation classes. The results showed that extreme droughts drastically reduces the water volume and elevates the nutrients concentration, contributing, thus, to a bigger degradation of water quality. Furthermore, we verified that human activities in the drainage basin promote the diffuse pollution, by increasing the soil susceptibility to erosion and nutrients contents. Summarizing, our results support the investigated hypothesis that activities of land use and occupation and extreme drought generate a combined effect that provide the intensification of eutrophication process of semiarid reservoirs.

¿Fue la crisis política del Occidente musulmán del siglo XIII debida a un cambio climático? Una aproximación histórica al fin del Periodo Cálido Medieval

Durante el siglo XIII se produjo una sucesión de revueltas que supuso la desaparición del Imperio almohade y su sustitución por poderes regionales en al-Andalus, el Magreb y el Magreb al-Aqsà. La historiografía ha presentado el surgimiento y pugna entre estos poderes como un fenómeno social, político e, incluso, cultural y religioso, con el que se ha podido explicar su aniquilación o marginalización. Este trabajo pretende contextualizar los hechos desde una perspectiva medioambiental, de forma que la desintegración del califato almohade, el surgimiento de aquellos poderes y la progresión de los reinos cristianos en la península ibérica puedan entenderse desde una visión global de cambio climático y una posible crisis agrícola.

Increasing frequency of extreme El Niño events due to greenhouse warming

El Niño events are a prominent feature of climate variability with global climatic impacts. The 1997/98 episode, often referred to as ‘the climate event of the twentieth century’1, 2, and the 1982/83 extreme El Niño3, featured a pronounced eastward extension of the west Pacific warm pool and development of atmospheric convection, and hence a huge rainfall increase, in the usually cold and dry equatorial eastern Pacific. Such a massive reorganization of atmospheric convection, which we define as an extreme El Niño, severely disrupted global weather patterns, affecting ecosystems4, 5, agriculture6, tropical cyclones, drought, bushfires, floods and other extreme weather events worldwide3, 7, 8, 9. Potential future changes in such extreme El Niño occurrences could have profound socio-economic consequences. Here we present climate modelling evidence for a doubling in the occurrences in the future in response to greenhouse warming. We estimate the change by aggregating results from climate models in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phases 3 (CMIP3; ref. 10) and 5 (CMIP5; ref. 11) multi-model databases, and a perturbed physics ensemble12. The increased frequency arises from a projected surface warming over the eastern equatorial Pacific that occurs faster than in the surrounding ocean waters13, 14, facilitating more occurrences of atmospheric convection in the eastern equatorial region.

Climatic and oceanic associations with daily rainfall extremes over southern Africa

Changes in climate variability and, in particular, changes in extreme climate events are likely to be of far more significance for environmentally vulnerable regions than changes in the mean state. It is generally accepted that sea-surface temperatures (SSTs) play an important role in modulating rainfall variability. Consequently, SSTs can be prescribed in global and regional climate modelling in order to study the physical mechanisms behind rainfall and its extremes. Using a satellite-based daily rainfall historical data set, this paper describes the main patterns of rainfall variability over southern Africa, identifies the dates when extreme rainfall occurs within these patterns, and shows the effect of resolution in trying to identify the location and intensity of SST anomalies associated with these extremes in the Atlantic and southwest Indian Ocean. Derived from a Principal Component Analysis (PCA), the results also suggest that, for the spatial pattern accounting for the highest amount of variability, extremes extracted at a higher spatial resolution do give a clearer indication regarding the location and intensity of anomalous SST regions. As the amount of variability explained by each spatial pattern defined by the PCA decreases, it would appear that extremes extracted at a lower resolution give a clearer indication of anomalous SST regions.

Migration, immobility and displacement outcomes following extreme events

There is growing international concern at the rise in the severity of impact and frequency of extreme environmental events, potentially as a manifestation of global environmental change. There is a widely held belief that this trend could be linked with a future rise in the migration or displacement of human populations. However, recent approaches to migration influenced by environmental change call into question the notion that migration can be ascribed in a singular way to particular environmental causes or events. This paper undertakes a systematic review of evidence on population movements associated with weather-related extreme events. The paper demonstrates that in the face of extreme environmental events, it is important to distinguish between three outcomes – migration, displacement, and immobility – each of which interact and respond to multiple drivers. It also proposes a further insight: that both those who move, and those who do not move, may find themselves trapped and vulnerable in the face of such extreme events. A review of evidence suggests that short-term displacement that goes hand-in-hand with loss of life, destruction of property and economic disruption poses significant risks not because it is ‘environmental migration’, but because it represents a failure of adaptation to environmental change.

Recent climatic trends and linkages to river discharge in Central Vietnam

In this study, change in rainfall, temperature and river discharge are analysed over the last three decades in Central Vietnam. Trends and rainfall indices are evaluated using non-parametric tests at different temporal levels. To overcome the sparse locally available network, the high resolution APHRODITE gridded dataset is used in addition to the existing rain gauges. Finally, existing linkages between discharge changes and trends in rainfall and temperature are explored. Results are indicative of an intensification of rainfall (+15%/decade), with more extreme and longer events. A significant increase in winter rainfall and a decrease in consecutive dry days provides strong evidence for a lengthening wet season in Central Vietnam. In addition, trends based on APHRODITE suggest a strong orographic signal in winter and annual trends. These results underline the local variability in the impacts of climatic change at the global scale. Consequently, it is important that change detection investigations are conducted at the local scale. A very weak signal is detected in the trend of minimum temperature (+0.2°C/decade). River discharge trends show an increase in mean discharge (31 to 35%/decade) over the last decades. Between 54 and 74% of this increase is explained by the increase in precipitation. The maximum discharge also responds significantly to precipitation changes leading to a lengthened wet season and an increase in extreme rainfall events. Such trends can be linked with a likely increase in floods in Central Vietnam, which is important for future adaptation planning and management and flood preparedness in the region. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Intraseasonal and Interannual Variability of Extreme Dry and Wet Events over Southeastern South America and the Subtropical Atlantic during Austral Summer

Intraseasonal and interannual variability of extreme wet and dry anomalies over southeastern Brazil and the western subtropical South Atlantic Ocean are investigated. Precipitation data are obtained from the Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) in pentads during 23 austral summers (December-February 1979/80-2001/02). Extreme wet (dry) events are defined according to 75th (25th) percentiles of precipitation anomaly distributions observed in two time scales: intraseasonal and interannual. The agreement between the 25th and 75th percentiles of the GPCP precipitation and gridded precipitation obtained from stations in Brazil is also examined. Variations of extreme wet and dry anomalies on interannual time scales are investigated along with variations of sea surface temperature (SST) and circulation anomalies. The South Atlantic SST dipole seems related to interannual variations of extreme precipitation events over southeastern Brazil. It is shown that extreme wet and dry events in the continental portion of the South Atlantic convergence zone (SACZ) are decoupled from extremes over the oceanic portion of the SACZ and there is no coherent dipole of extreme precipitation regimes between tropics and subtropics on interannual time scales. On intraseasonal time scales, the occurrence of extreme dry and wet events depends on the propagation phase of extratropical wave trains and consequent intensification (weakening) of 200-hPa zonal winds. Extreme wet and dry events over southeastern Brazil and subtropical Atlantic are in phase on intraseasonal time scales. Extreme wet events over southeastern Brazil and subtropical Atlantic are observed in association with low-level northerly winds above the 75th percentile of the seasonal climatology over central-eastern South America. Extreme wet events on intraseasonal time scales over southeastern Brazil are more frequent during seasons not classified as extreme wet or dry on interannual time scales.

Frequency and Intensity of drought events over Ebro River basin.

Lately, several researchers have pointed out that climate change is expected to increase temperatures and lower rainfall in Mediterranean regions, simultaneously increasing the intensity of extreme rainfall events. These changes could have consequences regarding rainfall regime, erosion, sediment transport and water quality, soil management, and new designs in diversion ditches. Climate change is expected to result in increasingly unpredictable and variable rainfall, in amount and timing, changing seasonal patterns and increasing the frequency of extreme weather events. Consequently, the evolution of frequency and intensity of drought periods is of most important as in agro-ecosystems many processes will be affected by them. Realising the complex and important consequences of an increasing frequency of extreme droughts at the Ebro River basin, our aim is to study the evolution of drought events at this site statistically, with emphasis on the occurrence and intensity of them. For this purpose, fourteen meteorological stations were selected based on the length of the rainfall series and the climatic classification to obtain a representative untreated dataset from the river basin. Daily rainfall series from 1957 to 2002 were obtained from each meteorological station and no-rain period frequency as the consecutive numbers of days were extracted. Based on this data, we study changes in the probability distribution in several sub-periods. Moreover we used the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) for identification of drought events in a year scale and then we use this index to fit log-linear models to the contingency tables between the SPI index and the sub-periods, this adjusted is carried out with the help of ANOVA inference.

DYNAMICS OF THE SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM AVIAN DISTRIBUTIONS IN NORTH AMERICA - THE ROLES OF VEGETATION HEIGHT HETEROGENEITY AND CLIMATIC FACTORS

Understanding how biodiversity spatially distribute over both the short term and long term, and what factors are affecting the distribution, are critical for modeling the spatial pattern of biodiversity as well as for promoting effective conservation planning and practices. This dissertation aims to examine factors that influence short-term and long-term avian distribution from the geographical sciences perspective. The research develops landscape level habitat metrics to characterize forest height heterogeneity and examines their efficacies in modelling avian richness at the continental scale. Two types of novel vegetation-height-structured habitat metrics are created based on second order texture algorithms and the concepts of patch-based habitat metrics. I correlate the height-structured metrics with the richness of different forest guilds, and also examine their efficacies in multivariate richness models. The results suggest that height heterogeneity, beyond canopy height alone, supplements habitat characterization and richness models of two forest bird guilds. The metrics and models derived in this study demonstrate practical examples of utilizing three-dimensional vegetation data for improved characterization of spatial patterns in species richness. The second and the third projects focus on analyzing centroids of avian distributions, and testing hypotheses regarding the direction and speed of these shifts. I first showcase the usefulness of centroids analysis for characterizing the distribution changes of a few case study species. Applying the centroid method on 57 permanent resident bird species, I show that multi-directional distribution shifts occurred in large number of studied species. I also demonstrate, plain birds are not shifting their distribution faster than mountain birds, contrary to the prediction based on climate change velocity hypothesis. By modelling the abundance change rate at regional level, I show that extreme climate events and precipitation measures associate closely with some of the long-term distribution shifts. This dissertation improves our understanding on bird habitat characterization for species richness modelling, and expands our knowledge on how avian populations shifted their ranges in North America responding to changing environments in the past four decades. The results provide an important scientific foundation for more accurate predictive species distribution modeling in future.

Estimation of Convective Extreme Events over Germany based on Large Scale Parameters

Strong convective events can produce extreme precipitation, hail, lightning or gusts, potentially inducing severe socio-economic impacts. These events have a relatively small spatial extension and, in most cases, a short lifetime. In this study, a model is developed for estimating convective extreme events based on large scale conditions. It is shown that strong convective events can be characterized by a Weibull distribution of radar-based rainfall with a low shape and high scale parameter value. A radius of 90km around a station reporting a convective situation turned out to be suitable. A methodology is developed to estimate the Weibull parameters and thus the occurrence probability of convective events from large scale atmospheric instability and enhanced near-surface humidity, which are usually found on a larger scale than the convective event itself. Here, the probability for the occurrence of extreme convective events is estimated from the KO-index indicating the stability, and relative humidity at 1000hPa. Both variables are computed from ERA-Interim reanalysis. In a first version of the methodology, these two variables are applied to estimate the spatial rainfall distribution and to estimate the occurrence of a convective event. The developed method shows significant skill in estimating the occurrence of convective events as observed at synoptic stations, lightning measurements, and severe weather reports. In order to take frontal influences into account, a scheme for the detection of atmospheric fronts is implemented. While generally higher instability is found in the vicinity of fronts, the skill of this approach is largely unchanged. Additional improvements were achieved by a bias-correction and the use of ERA-Interim precipitation. The resulting estimation method is applied to the ERA-Interim period (1979-2014) to establish a ranking of estimated convective extreme events. Two strong estimated events that reveal a frontal influence are analysed in detail. As a second application, the method is applied to GCM-based decadal predictions in the period 1979-2014, which were initialized every year. It is shown that decadal predictive skill for convective event frequencies over Germany is found for the first 3-4 years after the initialization.

Modeling electricity price events as point processes

Energy prices are highly volatile and often feature unexpected spikes. It is the aim of this paper to examine whether the occurrence of these extreme price events displays any regularities that can be captured using an econometric model. Here we treat these price events as point processes and apply Hawkes and Poisson autoregressive models to model the dynamics in the intensity of this process.We use load and meteorological information to model the time variation in the intensity of the process. The models are applied to data from the Australian wholesale electricity market, and a forecasting exercise illustrates both the usefulness of these models and their limitations when attempting to forecast the occurrence of extreme price events.

Diffusion of extreme weather-proofing technology in the built environment

This study addresses the research question: ‘What are the diffusion determinants for extreme weather-proofing technology in the Australian built environment?’ In order to effectively identify diffusion determinants, a synthesis of literature in both technical and management fields was conducted from a system-wide perspective. Review results where then interpreted through an innovation system framework, drawn from innovation systems literature, in order to map the current state of extreme weather-proofing technology diffusion in the Australian built environment industry. Drivers and obstacles to optimal diffusion are presented. Results show the important role to be played by Australian governments in facilitating improved weather proofing technology diffusion. This applies to governments in their various roles, but particularly as regulators, clients/owners and investors in research & development and education. In the role as regulators, findings suggest Australian governments should be encouraging the application of innovative finance options and positive end-user incentives to promote the uptake of weather proofing technology. Additionally, in their role as clients/owners, diffusion can be improved by adjusting building and infrastructure specifications to encourage designers and constructors to incorporate extreme weather proofing technology in new and redeveloped built assets. Finally, results suggest greater investment is required in research and development and improved knowledge sharing across the construction supply chain to further mitigate risks associated with greater incidences of extreme weather events.