Mathematical modeling for improved greenhouse gas balances, agro-ecosystems, and policy development: Lessons from the Australian experience

If the land sector is to make significant contributions to mitigating anthropogenic greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in coming decades, it must do so while concurrently expanding production of food and fiber. In our view, mathematical modeling will be required to provide scientific guidance to meet this challenge. In order to be useful in GHG mitigation policy measures, models must simultaneously meet scientific, software engineering, and human capacity requirements. They can be used to understand GHG fluxes, to evaluate proposed GHG mitigation actions, and to predict and monitor the effects of specific actions; the latter applications require a change in mindset that has parallels with the shift from research modeling to decision support. We compare and contrast 6 agro-ecosystem models (FullCAM, DayCent, DNDC, APSIM, WNMM, and AgMod), chosen because they are used in Australian agriculture and forestry. Underlying structural similarities in the representations of carbon flows though plants and soils in these models are complemented by a diverse range of emphases and approaches to the subprocesses within the agro-ecosystem. None of these agro-ecosystem models handles all land sector GHG fluxes, and considerable model-based uncertainty exists for soil C fluxes and enteric methane emissions. The models also show diverse approaches to the initialisation of model simulations, software implementation, distribution, licensing, and software quality assurance; each of these will differentially affect their usefulness for policy-driven GHG mitigation prediction and monitoring. Specific requirements imposed on the use of models by Australian mitigation policy settings are discussed, and areas for further scientific development of agro-ecosystem models for use in GHG mitigation policy are proposed.

Birth and expansion of innovation ecosystems: A case study of copper production

Despite the growing attention innovation ecosystems have received from scholars and practitioners, rather little is known about the crucial birth and expansion phases that these ecosystems experience. Through a single case in the complex product system (CoPS) environment, this paper investigates the development of an innovation ecosystem between 1980 and 2007. The findings demonstrate that the ecosystem’s birth phase includes sub-phases, namely, invention and start-up, where the ecosystem is reconfigured to find the appropriate form and the proper actors to satisfy the first customer’s requirements. Moreover, the duration of the expansion phase is found to be remarkably long, suggesting that within the CoPS setting, expansion may also include two or more sub-phases.

The trend toward pre-graduation professional work experience for Australian young planners: Essential experience or essentially exploitation

This paper explores the changing employment expectations that frame the early professional work experiences of young planners in Australia. In particular, it considers the rising popularity of pre-graduation professional work experience as a precursor to formal entry into the workforce as a practising planner. This shift is being driven in part by employer expectations that graduates will already have ‘real world’ and relevant work experience. However, an equally significant driver appears to be a growing desire for early career and graduate planners to find ways to distinguish themselves from their peers in an increasingly tight labour market. Using data from an ongoing research project into the formative work experiences of young people this paper describes the three main types of pre-graduation professional work experience undertaken by young planners. It highlights the potential challenges and benefits of pre-graduation work experience from a legal, social and ethical perspective as well as from the perspective of young planners themselves. The paper concludes by reflecting on the role of the planning profession – employers, peak bodies and planning educators – in managing the tensions between producing ‘work ready’ graduates and safeguarding the employment conditions of early career planning professionals.

Chronicling the patient journey: Co-creating value with digital health ecosystems

With the introduction of the PCEHR (Personally Controlled Electronic Health Record), the Australian public is being asked to accept greater responsibility for the management of their health information. However, the implementation of the PCEHR has occasioned poor adoption rates underscored by criticism from stakeholders with concerns about transparency, accountability, privacy, confidentiality, governance, and limited capabilities. This study adopts an ethnographic lens to observe how information is created and used during the patient journey and the social factors impacting on the adoption of the PCEHR at the micro-level in order to develop a conceptual model that will encourage the sharing of patient information within the cycle of care. Objective: This study aims to firstly, establish a basic understanding of healthcare professional attitudes toward a national platform for sharing patient summary information in the form of a PCEHR. Secondly, the studies aims to map the flow of patient related information as it traverses a patient’s personal cycle of care. Thus, an ethnographic approach was used to bring a “real world” lens to information flow in a series of case studies in the Australian healthcare system to discover themes and issues that are important from the patient’s perspective. Design: Qualitative study utilising ethnographic case studies. Setting: Case studies were conducted at primary and allied healthcare professionals located in Brisbane Queensland between October 2013 and July 2014. Results: In the first dimension, it was identified that healthcare professionals’ concerns about trust and medico-legal issues related to patient control and information quality, and the lack of clinical value available with the PCEHR emerged as significant barriers to use. The second dimension of the study which attempted to map patient information flow identified information quality issues, clinical workflow inefficiencies and interoperability misconceptions resulting in duplication of effort, unnecessary manual processes, data quality and integrity issues and an over reliance on the understanding and communication skills of the patient. Conclusion: Opportunities for process efficiencies, improved data quality and increased patient safety emerge with the adoption of an appropriate information sharing platform. More importantly, large scale eHealth initiatives must be aligned with the value proposition of individual stakeholders in order to achieve widespread adoption. Leveraging an Australian national eHealth infrastructure and the PCEHR we offer a practical example of a service driven digital ecosystem suitable for co-creating value in healthcare.

Submission to the External Independent Review of the United Nations Response to Allegations of Sexual Exploitation and Abuse and Other Serious Crimes by Members of Foreign Military Forces Not Under United Nations Command in the Central African Republic

In 2015 the UN Secretary-General established an External Independent Review to review how the United Nations has responded to allegations of child sexual exploitation and child sexual abuse, and to make recommendations concerning how the United Nations should respond to allegations in the future. This submission to the Review Panel draws on literature regarding children's rights, the nature of child sexual abuse, international instruments and policy, the nature of institutional child sexual abuse, and the CAR case itself. It makes recommendations for reform of UN protocols and procedures to better prevent child sexual abuse, and to improve responses to future occurrences.

The original native pasture ecosystems of the eastern and western Darling Downs - Can they be restored?

The original pasture ecosystems of southern inland Queensland ranged from treeless grasslands on cracking clays through grassy woodlands of varying density on a great range of soil types to those competing at the dynamic edges of forests and scrubs. Fire, both wild and aboriginal-managed, was a major factor, along with rainfall extremes, in shaping the pastures and tree:grass balance. Seedling recruitment was driven by rainfall extremes, availability of germinable seed and growing space, with seed availability and space being linked to the timing and intensity of recent fires and rain. The impact of insects, diseases, severe wind and hailstorms on recruitment should not be underestimated. The more fertile soils had denser grass growth, greater fire frequency and thinner tree cover than infertile soils, except where trees were so dense that grass growth was almost eliminated. The pastures were dominated by perennial tussock grasses of mid-height but included a wide array of minor herbaceous species whose abundance was linked to soil type and recent seasonal conditions. Many were strongly perennial with Asteraceae, Fabaceae, Malvaceae, Cyperaceae and Goodeniaceae most common in an environment, which can experience effective rainfall at any time of year. The former grassland communities that are now productive farming lands are not easily returned to their original composition. However, conservation of remnant examples of original pasture types is very achievable provided tree density is controlled, prescribed burning and grazing are used and rigorous control of invasive, exotic species is undertaken. This should be done with a clear understanding that significant short-and medium-term fluctuations in botanical composition are normal.

Grader grass (Themeda quadrivalvis): changing savannah ecosystems.

Wayne Vogler and Nikki Owen recently published their paper 'Grader grass (Themeda quadrivalvis): changing savannah ecosystems' in Proceedings of the 16th Australian Weeds Conference. Grader grass is an invasive exotic 'high biomass' grass from India that is increasing its distribution in northern Australia. It is unpalatable and can dominate ecosystems, thereby decreasing grazing animal production, degrading conservation areas and increasing fire intensity and hazard. They studied aspects of its biology at a field site in north Queensland where the initial biomass of the grass layer was found to be 70% grader grass. Grader grass also produced 80% of the seed input into this ecosystem during the first growing season. These factors, in combination with a large viable seed bank and rapid germination at the start of the wet season, demonstrate the potential of grader grass to dominate and degrade the savannah ecosystems of northern Australia.

Classical Biological Control for the Protection of Natural Ecosystems.

Of the 70 cases of classical biological control for the protection of nature found in our review, there were fewer projects against insect targets (21) than against invasive plants (49), in part, because many insect biological control projects were carried out against agricultural pests, while nearly all projects against plants targeted invasive plants in natural ecosystems. Of 21 insect projects, 81% (17) provided benefits to protection of biodiversity, while 48% (10) protected products harvested from natural systems, and 5% (1) preserved ecosystem services, with many projects contributing to more than one goal. In contrast, of the 49 projects against invasive plants, 98% (48) provided benefits to protection of biodiversity, while 47% (23) protected products, and 25% (12) preserved ecosystem services, again with many projects contributing to several goals. We classified projects into complete control (pest generally no longer important), partial control (control in some areas but not others), and "in progress," for projects in development for which outcomes do not yet exist. For insects, of the 21 projects discussed, 59% (13) achieved complete control of the target pest, 18% (4) provided partial control, and 41% (9) are still in progress. By comparison, of the 49 invasive plant projects considered, 27% (13) achieved complete control, while 33% (16) provided partial control, and 47% (24) are still in progress. For both categories of pests, some projects' success ratings were scored twice when results varied by region. We found approximately twice as many projects directed against invasive plants than insects and that protection of biodiversity was the most frequent benefit of both insect and plant projects. Ecosystem service protection was provided in the fewest cases by either insect or plant biological control agents, but was more likely to be provided by projects directed against invasive plants, likely because of the strong effects plants exert on landscapes. Rates of complete success appeared to be higher for insect than plant targets (59% vs 27%), perhaps because most often herbivores gradually weaken, rather than outright kill, their hosts, which is not the case for natural enemies directed against pest insects. For both insect and plant biological control, nearly half of all projects reviewed were listed as currently in progress, suggesting that the use of biological control for the protection of wildlands is currently very active.

Role of Native Fish in Integrated Aquatic Weed and Water Quality Management within the Burdekin Irrigation Area

This report summarises work conducted by the QDPI, in partnership with the South Burdekin Water Board (SBWB) and the Burdekin Shire Council (BSC) between 2001 and 2003. The broad aim of the research was to assess the potential of native fish as biocontrol agents for noxious weeds, as part of an integrated program for managing water quality in the Burdekin Irrigation Area. A series of trials were conducted at, or using water derived from, the Sandy Creek Diversion near Groper Creek (lower Burdekin delta). Trials demonstrated that aquatic weeds play a positive role in trapping transient nutrients, until such time that weed growth becomes self-shading and weed dieback occurs, which releases stored nutrients and adversely affects water quality. Transient nutrient levels (av. TN<0.5mg/L; av. TP<0.1mg/L) found in the irrigation channel during the course of this research were substantially lower than expected, especially considering the intensive agriculture and sewage effluent discharge upstream from the study site. This confirms the need to consider the control of weeds rather than complete weed extermination when formulating management plans. However, even when low nutrient levels are available, there is competitive exploitation of habitat variables in the irrigation area leading to succession and eventual domination by certain weed species. During these trials, we have seen filamentous algae, phytoplankton, hyacinth and curled pondweed each hold competitive advantage at certain points. However without intervention, floating weeds, especially hyacinth, ultimately predominate in the Burdekin delta due to their fast propagation rate and their ability to out-shade submerged plants. We have highlighted the complexity of interactions in these highly disturbed ecosystems in that even if the more prevalent noxious weeds are contained, other weed species will exploit the vacant niche. This complexity places stringent requirements on the type of native fish that can be used as biocontrol agents. Of the seven fish species identified with herbivorous trophic niches, most target plankton or algae and do not have the physical capacity to directly eat the larger macrophytes of the delta. We do find however that following mechanical weed harvesting, inoculative releases of fish can slow the rate of hyacinth recolonisation. This occurs by mechanisms in addition to direct weed consumption, such as disturbing growth surfaces by grazing on attached biofilms. Predation by birds and water rats presents another impediment to the efficacy of large-scale releases of fish. However, alternative uses of fish in water quality management in the Burdekin irrigation area are discussed.

Methanotrophs from natural ecosystems for ruminant methane mitigation

Enteric fermentation of methane by ruminant animals represents a major source of anthropogenic methane production. Methane produced in this manner is released to the atmosphere where it is highly efficient at absorbing thermal radiation, which consequently increases the global surface temperature. Although many different strategies to control ruminant methane emissions have been considered, few are currently considered viable. Obligate and acultative methane oxidising bacteria (MOB) and anaerobic methane oxidising archaea (ANME) play a fundamental role in the carbon cycle by metabolising methane before it is released into the atmosphere. Because of this, methanotrophic microorganisms represent a novel biological control agent in mitigating ruminant methane emissions. This project aims to characterise methanotrophic microorganisms from a range of environments, and to subsequently determine the metabolic activity of these microorganisms under in vitro rumen-like conditions.

Issues of Digital Ecosystems Approach to Biological Ecosystem Simulation Model Fit Optimization

This study examines the application of digital ecosystems concepts to a biological ecosystem simulation problem. The problem involves the use of a digital ecosystem agent to optimize the accuracy of a second digital ecosystem agent, the biological ecosystem simulation. The study also incorporates social ecosystems, with a technological solution design subsystem communicating with a science subsystem and simulation software developer subsystem to determine key characteristics of the biological ecosystem simulation. The findings show similarities between the issues involved in digital ecosystem collaboration and those occurring when digital ecosystems interact with biological ecosystems. The results also suggest that even precise semantic descriptions and comprehensive ontologies may be insufficient to describe agents in enough detail for use within digital ecosystems, and a number of solutions to this problem are proposed.

Fauna community trends during early restoration of alluvial open forest/woodland ecosystems on former agricultural land

Vertebrate fauna was studied over 10 years following revegetation of a Eucalyptus tereticornis ecosystem on former agricultural land. We compared four vegetation types: remnant forest, plantings of a mix of native tree species on cleared land, natural regeneration of partially cleared land after livestock removal, and cleared pasture land with scattered paddock trees managed for livestock production. Pasture differed significantly from remnant in both bird and nonbird fauna. Although 10 years of ecosystem restoration is relatively short term in the restoration process, in this time bird assemblages in plantings and natural regeneration had diverged significantly from pasture, but still differed significantly from remnant. After 10 years, 70 and 66% of the total vertebrate species found in remnant had been recorded in plantings and natural regeneration, respectively. Although the fauna assemblages within plantings and natural regeneration were tracking toward those of remnant, significant differences in fauna between plantings and natural regeneration indicated community development along different restoration pathways. Because natural regeneration contained more mature trees (dbh > 30 cm), native shrub species, and coarse woody debris than plantings from the beginning of the study, these features possibly encouraged different fauna to the revegetation areas from the outset. The ability of plantings and natural regeneration to transition to the remnant state will be governed by a number of factors that were significant in the analyses, including shrub cover, herbaceous biomass, tree hollows, time since fire, and landscape condition. Both active and passive restoration produced significant change from the cleared state in the short term.