Bayesian predictive modeling and comparison of oil samples

Statistical comparison of oil samples is an integral part of oil spill identification, which deals with the process of linking an oil spill with its source of origin. In current practice, a frequentist hypothesis test is often used to evaluate evidence in support of a match between a spill and a source sample. As frequentist tests are only able to evaluate evidence against a hypothesis but not in support of it, we argue that this leads to unsound statistical reasoning. Moreover, currently only verbal conclusions on a very coarse scale can be made about the match between two samples, whereas a finer quantitative assessment would often be preferred. To address these issues, we propose a Bayesian predictive approach for evaluating the similarity between the chemical compositions of two oil samples. We derive the underlying statistical model from some basic assumptions on modeling assays in analytical chemistry, and to further facilitate and improve numerical evaluations, we develop analytical expressions for the key elements of Bayesian inference for this model. The approach is illustrated with both simulated and real data and is shown to have appealing properties in comparison with both standard frequentist and Bayesian approaches

Injeção de vapor e solvente como um método de recuperação avançada em reservatório avançada em reservatórios de óleo pesado

Currently a resource more and more used by the petroleum industry to increase the efficiency of steam flood mechanism is the addition of solvents. The process can be understood as a combination of a thermal method (steam injection) with a miscible method (solvent injection), promoting, thus, the reduction of interfacial tensions and oil viscosity. The use of solvent alone tends to be limited because of its high cost. When co-injected with steam, the vaporized solvent condenses in the cooler regions of the reservoir and mixes with the oil, creating a zone of low viscosity between the steam and the heavy oil. The mobility of the displaced fluid is then improved, resulting in an increase of oil recovery. To better understand this improved oil recovery method, a numerical study of the process was done contemplating the effects of some operational parameters (distance between wells, injection steam rate, kind of solvent and injected solvent volume)on the accumulated production of oil, recovery factor and oil-steam rate. Semisynthetic models were used in this study but reservoir data can be extrapolated for practical applications situations on Potiguar Basin. Simulations were performed in STARS (CMG, 2007.11). It was found that injected solvent volumes increased oil recovery and oil rates. Further the majority of the injected solvent was produced and can be recycled

Estudo paramétrico da injeção de vapor em reservatórios delgados

Exploration of heavy oil reservoirs is increasing every year in worldwide, because the discovery of light oil reservoirs is becoming increasingly rare. This fact has stimulated the research with the purpose of becoming viable, technically and economically, the exploration of such oil reserves. In Brazil, in special in the Northeast region, there is a large amount of heavy oil reservoir, where the recovery by the so called secondary methods Water injection or gas injection is inefficient or even impracticable in some reservoirs with high viscosity oils (heavy oils). In this scenario, steam injection appears as an interesting alternative for recover of these kinds of oil reservoirs. Its main mechanism consists of oil viscosity reduction through steam injection, increasing reservoir temperature. This work presents a parametric simulation study of some operational and reservoir variables that had influence on oil recovery in thin reservoirs typically found in Brazilian Northeast Basins, that use the steam injection as improved oil recovery method. To carry out simulations, it was used the commercial software STARS (Steam, Thermal, and Advanced Processes Reservoir Simulator) from CMG (Computer Modeling Group) version 2007.11. Reservoirs variables studied were horizontal permeability, vertical and horizontal permeability ratio, water zone and pay zone thickness ratio, pay zone thickness and thermal conductivity of the rock. Whereas, operational parameters studied were distance between wells and steam injection rate. Results showed that reservoir variables that had more influence on oil recovery were horizontal permeability and water zone and pay zone thickness ratio. In relation to operational variables, results showed that short distances between wells and low steam injection rates improved oil recovery

Estudo da segregação gravitacional do processo de injeção de vapor em reservátórios heterogêneos

Due to reservoirs complexity and significantly large reserves, heavy oil recovery has become one of the major oil industry challenges. Thus, thermal methods have been widely used as a strategic method to improve heavy oil recovery. These methods improve oil displacement through viscosity reduction, enabling oil production in fields which are not considered commercial by conventional recovery methods. Among the thermal processes, steam flooding is the most used today. One consequence in this process is gravity segregation, given by difference between reservoir and injected fluids density. This phenomenon may be influenced by the presence of reservoir heterogeneities. Since most of the studies are carried out in homogeneous reservoirs, more detailed studies of heterogeneities effects in the reservoirs during steam flooding are necessary, since most oil reservoirs are heterogeneous. This paper presents a study of reservoir heterogeneities and their influence in gravity segregation during steam flooding process. In this study some heterogeneous reservoirs with physical characteristics similar those found in the Brazilian Northeast Basin were analyzed. To carry out the simulations, it was used the commercial simulator STARS by CMG (Computer Modeling Group) - version 2007.11. Heterogeneities were modeled with lower permeability layers. Results showed that the presence of low permeability barriers can improve the oil recovery, and reduce the effects of gravity segregation, depending on the location of heterogeneities. The presence of these barriers have also increased the recovered fraction even with the reduction of injected steam rate

Análise paramétrica da simulação composicional do processo de Drenagem Gravitacional Assistida por Gás (GAGD)

In Brazil and around the world, oil companies are looking for, and expected development of new technologies and processes that can increase the oil recovery factor in mature reservoirs, in a simple and inexpensive way. So, the latest research has developed a new process called Gas Assisted Gravity Drainage (GAGD) which was classified as a gas injection IOR. The process, which is undergoing pilot testing in the field, is being extensively studied through physical scale models and core-floods laboratory, due to high oil recoveries in relation to other gas injection IOR. This process consists of injecting gas at the top of a reservoir through horizontal or vertical injector wells and displacing the oil, taking advantage of natural gravity segregation of fluids, to a horizontal producer well placed at the bottom of the reservoir. To study this process it was modeled a homogeneous reservoir and a model of multi-component fluid with characteristics similar to light oil Brazilian fields through a compositional simulator, to optimize the operational parameters. The model of the process was simulated in GEM (CMG, 2009.10). The operational parameters studied were the gas injection rate, the type of gas injection, the location of the injector and production well. We also studied the presence of water drive in the process. The results showed that the maximum vertical spacing between the two wells, caused the maximum recovery of oil in GAGD. Also, it was found that the largest flow injection, it obtained the largest recovery factors. This parameter controls the speed of the front of the gas injected and determined if the gravitational force dominates or not the process in the recovery of oil. Natural gas had better performance than CO2 and that the presence of aquifer in the reservoir was less influential in the process. In economic analysis found that by injecting natural gas is obtained more economically beneficial than CO2

Injeção de vapor e solvente como um método de recuperação avançada em reservatório avançada em reservatórios de óleo pesado

Currently a resource more and more used by the petroleum industry to increase the efficiency of steam flood mechanism is the addition of solvents. The process can be understood as a combination of a thermal method (steam injection) with a miscible method (solvent injection), promoting, thus, the reduction of interfacial tensions and oil viscosity. The use of solvent alone tends to be limited because of its high cost. When co-injected with steam, the vaporized solvent condenses in the cooler regions of the reservoir and mixes with the oil, creating a zone of low viscosity between the steam and the heavy oil. The mobility of the displaced fluid is then improved, resulting in an increase of oil recovery. To better understand this improved oil recovery method, a numerical study of the process was done contemplating the effects of some operational parameters (distance between wells, injection steam rate, kind of solvent and injected solvent volume)on the accumulated production of oil, recovery factor and oil-steam rate. Semisynthetic models were used in this study but reservoir data can be extrapolated for practical applications situations on Potiguar Basin. Simulations were performed in STARS (CMG, 2007.11). It was found that injected solvent volumes increased oil recovery and oil rates. Further the majority of the injected solvent was produced and can be recycled

Estudo paramétrico da injeção de vapor em reservatórios delgados

Exploration of heavy oil reservoirs is increasing every year in worldwide, because the discovery of light oil reservoirs is becoming increasingly rare. This fact has stimulated the research with the purpose of becoming viable, technically and economically, the exploration of such oil reserves. In Brazil, in special in the Northeast region, there is a large amount of heavy oil reservoir, where the recovery by the so called secondary methods Water injection or gas injection is inefficient or even impracticable in some reservoirs with high viscosity oils (heavy oils). In this scenario, steam injection appears as an interesting alternative for recover of these kinds of oil reservoirs. Its main mechanism consists of oil viscosity reduction through steam injection, increasing reservoir temperature. This work presents a parametric simulation study of some operational and reservoir variables that had influence on oil recovery in thin reservoirs typically found in Brazilian Northeast Basins, that use the steam injection as improved oil recovery method. To carry out simulations, it was used the commercial software STARS (Steam, Thermal, and Advanced Processes Reservoir Simulator) from CMG (Computer Modeling Group) version 2007.11. Reservoirs variables studied were horizontal permeability, vertical and horizontal permeability ratio, water zone and pay zone thickness ratio, pay zone thickness and thermal conductivity of the rock. Whereas, operational parameters studied were distance between wells and steam injection rate. Results showed that reservoir variables that had more influence on oil recovery were horizontal permeability and water zone and pay zone thickness ratio. In relation to operational variables, results showed that short distances between wells and low steam injection rates improved oil recovery

Estudo da segregação gravitacional do processo de injeção de vapor em reservátórios heterogêneos

Due to reservoirs complexity and significantly large reserves, heavy oil recovery has become one of the major oil industry challenges. Thus, thermal methods have been widely used as a strategic method to improve heavy oil recovery. These methods improve oil displacement through viscosity reduction, enabling oil production in fields which are not considered commercial by conventional recovery methods. Among the thermal processes, steam flooding is the most used today. One consequence in this process is gravity segregation, given by difference between reservoir and injected fluids density. This phenomenon may be influenced by the presence of reservoir heterogeneities. Since most of the studies are carried out in homogeneous reservoirs, more detailed studies of heterogeneities effects in the reservoirs during steam flooding are necessary, since most oil reservoirs are heterogeneous. This paper presents a study of reservoir heterogeneities and their influence in gravity segregation during steam flooding process. In this study some heterogeneous reservoirs with physical characteristics similar those found in the Brazilian Northeast Basin were analyzed. To carry out the simulations, it was used the commercial simulator STARS by CMG (Computer Modeling Group) - version 2007.11. Heterogeneities were modeled with lower permeability layers. Results showed that the presence of low permeability barriers can improve the oil recovery, and reduce the effects of gravity segregation, depending on the location of heterogeneities. The presence of these barriers have also increased the recovered fraction even with the reduction of injected steam rate

Análise paramétrica da simulação composicional do processo de Drenagem Gravitacional Assistida por Gás (GAGD)

In Brazil and around the world, oil companies are looking for, and expected development of new technologies and processes that can increase the oil recovery factor in mature reservoirs, in a simple and inexpensive way. So, the latest research has developed a new process called Gas Assisted Gravity Drainage (GAGD) which was classified as a gas injection IOR. The process, which is undergoing pilot testing in the field, is being extensively studied through physical scale models and core-floods laboratory, due to high oil recoveries in relation to other gas injection IOR. This process consists of injecting gas at the top of a reservoir through horizontal or vertical injector wells and displacing the oil, taking advantage of natural gravity segregation of fluids, to a horizontal producer well placed at the bottom of the reservoir. To study this process it was modeled a homogeneous reservoir and a model of multi-component fluid with characteristics similar to light oil Brazilian fields through a compositional simulator, to optimize the operational parameters. The model of the process was simulated in GEM (CMG, 2009.10). The operational parameters studied were the gas injection rate, the type of gas injection, the location of the injector and production well. We also studied the presence of water drive in the process. The results showed that the maximum vertical spacing between the two wells, caused the maximum recovery of oil in GAGD. Also, it was found that the largest flow injection, it obtained the largest recovery factors. This parameter controls the speed of the front of the gas injected and determined if the gravitational force dominates or not the process in the recovery of oil. Natural gas had better performance than CO2 and that the presence of aquifer in the reservoir was less influential in the process. In economic analysis found that by injecting natural gas is obtained more economically beneficial than CO2

A Research on New Method of Transportation Technics for Heavy Oil and Practice in Oil Field

介绍一种可应用于高粘度稠油管输的新工艺。即用自行研制的蒸汽引射器采用无界引射方式,将蒸汽直接注入到输油管道中,利用蒸汽释放的热量提高稠油温度降低粘度,从而达到降低稠油输送压降的目的,它比间接加热输送工艺所用的蒸汽量或耗煤量大大减少。方法在辽河油田输油管线上进行了工业现场试验,取得了很好的效果。

Modelagem e simulação do escoamento imiscível em meios porosos fractais descritos pela equação de Kozeny-Carman Generalizada

O presente trabalho trata do escoamento bifásico em meios porosos heterogêneos de natureza fractal, onde os fluidos são considerados imiscíveis. Os meios porosos são modelados pela equação de Kozeny-Carman Generalizada (KCG), a qual relaciona a porosidade com a permeabilidade do meio através de uma nova lei de potência. Esta equação proposta por nós é capaz de generalizar diferentes modelos existentes na literatura e, portanto, é de uso mais geral. O simulador numérico desenvolvido aqui emprega métodos de diferenças finitas. A evolução temporal é baseada em um esquema de separação de operadores que segue a estratégia clássica chamada de IMPES. Assim, o campo de pressão é calculado implicitamente, enquanto que a equação da saturação da fase molhante é resolvida explicitamente em cada nível de tempo. O método de otimização denominado de DFSANE é utilizado para resolver a equação da pressão. Enfatizamos que o DFSANE nunca foi usado antes no contexto de simulação de reservatórios. Portanto, o seu uso aqui é sem precedentes. Para minimizar difusões numéricas, a equação da saturação é discretizada por um esquema do tipo "upwind", comumente empregado em simuladores numéricos para a recuperação de petróleo, o qual é resolvido explicitamente pelo método Runge-Kutta de quarta ordem. Os resultados das simulações são bastante satisfatórios. De fato, tais resultados mostram que o modelo KCG é capaz de gerar meios porosos heterogêneos, cujas características permitem a captura de fenômenos físicos que, geralmente, são de difícil acesso para muitos simuladores em diferenças finitas clássicas, como o chamado fenômeno de dedilhamento, que ocorre quando a razão de mobilidade (entre as fases fluidas) assume valores adversos. Em todas as simulações apresentadas aqui, consideramos que o problema imiscível é bidimensional, sendo, portanto, o meio poroso caracterizado por campos de permeabilidade e de porosidade definidos em regiões Euclideanas. No entanto, a teoria abordada neste trabalho não impõe restrições para sua aplicação aos problemas tridimensionais.

Biomonitoring of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAH) and heavy metals Ni, V in sediments and anodonts of the Anzali Lagoon and applicability of netural red retention assay (NRR) as biomarkers of these pollutants

Biochemical ecotoxicology and biomarkers using are a new sciences that are used for biomonitoring in aquatic environment. Biomonitoring plays a vital role in strategies to identify, assess, and control contaminants. On the other hands in recent year's attention to polycyclic Aromatic Hydrocarbons (PAHs) and heavy metals increased in aquatic environments because of their carcinogenic and mutagenic properties combined with their nearly ubiquitous distribution in depositional environments by oil pollution or industrial waste waters. The present research aimed to assess PAHs and Ni, V levels in surface sediments and bivalves (Anodonta cygnea)and the effects of PAHs and heavy metals (Ni,V) on the hemocyte of the Anodonta cygnea were investigated in 2 stations (Mahrozeh, Selke in Anzali Lagoon, North of Iran). Samples were collected during at 2 different periods of the year, Dry and rain seasons, (June & September) and to confirm our first observations, Cage station is added. The bivalves hemocytes were monitored for membrane injury by NRR methods (neutral red retention assay). Heavy metal (Ni, V) concentrations were determined by Atomic Absorption in Anodonta cygnea and the sediments in Anzali Lagoon. The vanadium concentration in bivalves and sediments was ND(not detect )-0.4231 μg/g and 1.4381-306.9603 μg/g dry weight respectively. Nickel concentration in bivalves and sediments was 0.0231-1.3351, 0.4024-19.3561 μg/g dry weight respectively. PAHs concentrations were determined by GC-Mass in Anodonta cygnea and the sediments. Average concentration of PAHs is 115-373.788 ng/g dry weight in bivalves and average concentration of PAHs is 34.85-1339.839 ng/g dry weight in sediments. Bioaccumulation sediments factor(BASF) is high about PAHs (>1) and BASF is low for Ni, V (<1) . Internal Damage mechanisms of bivalves hemocytes (cell mortality, dye leakage, decreased membrane stability, are observed (Lowe Methods). Statistical analysis was used to explore the relationship between altered cellular and above contaminants. There are power and negative correlations between PAHs and NRR method for hemocytes in Anodonta cygnea (P<0.0005), but good correlation is not observed between Ni, V and NRR method for hemocytes in every time. This research indicates that the NRR assay is a useful screening technique able to discriminate polluted sites and at first we announce that Anodonta cygnea hemocytes are efficient biomarker for PAHs pollutants in fresh water.

孤岛油田曲流河微相单砂体储层建筑结构及挖潜方向研究

In the intermediary and later stage of oil field development, remaining oil disperses fiercely, the contradiction in the layer has become the main problem and the distribution of remaining oil is transforming to the difference of single sand-body. So, the fine description research of reservoir is becoming a tendency and the methods of remaining oil research need new developments. In the research of “The Single-sand-body Architectural Element and Potentiality Analysis Research of Meandering River, GuDao Oil Field”, the research principle is analytical hierarchy process and schema prescription what are reservoir fine description methods under the condition of dense well pattern. The knowledge of regional sedimentary system and sedimentary facies is the foundation of this research. According to the 3D distribution model of the microfacies sand-body of fluvial facies, stratigraphic unit classification & coenocorrelation of 154 wells are completed in the research of meandering river sand-body in Ng3-4. In this research, the 3D distribution of microfacies sand-body in the main layers are settled. The architectural element model of Ng4 point bar is analysed using the drill core and FMI data. According to the overgrow model of point bar, the surfaces of lateral accretion is traced and the architectural element model of point bar is settled. In the research, the control of micro-facies sand-body of meandering river to the distribution of remaining oil is analysed and the potential area is proposed. All these will play an important role in the development of GuDao oil field. In this research, abundant of logging data, drill core data and production performance data are used to analyse the contributing factor of single sand-body in the Ng3-4 meandering river. Using the technology of geological modeling, all that are researched including the 3D distribution scales of meandering river point bar, the control affection of inner lateral accretion layer to the distribution of oil & gas and remaining. Then, the way of remaining oil development in the sand-body of meandering river is improved. The innovation of the research technology includes (1) the presentation of the conception and research methods of micro-facies sand-body (2) enriching the content of reservoir architectural element research and (3) to renew the research method of remaining oil analysis. The research has practiced with obvious effect.(1)It is deepened into understand the river facies reservoir construction of Gudao oil field, By Building the reservoir construction and studying the effect of diffent deposit or geological interface to fluid partition and to the distribution of the remaining oil, we improved the understanding to the distribution of the remaining oil���(2)By building the distribution mod of the remaining oil in the reservoir construction and making the remaining oil description detailed,the development direction of old oil field is more clear；(3)Expanded the application scales of the horizontal well and enhanced the application effects of the horizontal well technique , we designed and drilled 23 ports horizontal wells in all , the cumulative hydrocarbon production is 10.6*104 t；(4) According to the findings of the internal building structure in reservoir of the fluvial facies in the region of interest, and uniting the injection/production corresponding states、the producing history and the dynamic monitoring documents of the oil/water wells in the flooding units , we researched the residual oil distribution in the point bar , and found the distribution regular patterns of the remaining oil, and comprehended the distribution of the remaining oil . In base of that , we proceeded the optimizing designs of the oil well potentialities , and advanced the effect of the treatment potentials . It is proved that , it was very important that internal building structure research of the single sand body of reservoir for guiding the high efficiency potentialities of the remaining oil in the high water cut stage .

Modeling and Analysis of Some Heavy Tailed Time Series

The thesis has covered various aspects of modeling and analysis of finite mean time series with symmetric stable distributed innovations. Time series analysis based on Box and Jenkins methods are the most popular approaches where the models are linear and errors are Gaussian. We highlighted the limitations of classical time series analysis tools and explored some generalized tools and organized the approach parallel to the classical set up. In the present thesis we mainly studied the estimation and prediction of signal plus noise model. Here we assumed the signal and noise follow some models with symmetric stable innovations.We start the thesis with some motivating examples and application areas of alpha stable time series models. Classical time series analysis and corresponding theories based on finite variance models are extensively discussed in second chapter. We also surveyed the existing theories and methods correspond to infinite variance models in the same chapter. We present a linear filtering method for computing the filter weights assigned to the observation for estimating unobserved signal under general noisy environment in third chapter. Here we consider both the signal and the noise as stationary processes with infinite variance innovations. We derived semi infinite, double infinite and asymmetric signal extraction filters based on minimum dispersion criteria. Finite length filters based on Kalman-Levy filters are developed and identified the pattern of the filter weights. Simulation studies show that the proposed methods are competent enough in signal extraction for processes with infinite variance.Parameter estimation of autoregressive signals observed in a symmetric stable noise environment is discussed in fourth chapter. Here we used higher order Yule-Walker type estimation using auto-covariation function and exemplify the methods by simulation and application to Sea surface temperature data. We increased the number of Yule-Walker equations and proposed a ordinary least square estimate to the autoregressive parameters. Singularity problem of the auto-covariation matrix is addressed and derived a modified version of the Generalized Yule-Walker method using singular value decomposition.In fifth chapter of the thesis we introduced partial covariation function as a tool for stable time series analysis where covariance or partial covariance is ill defined. Asymptotic results of the partial auto-covariation is studied and its application in model identification of stable auto-regressive models are discussed. We generalize the Durbin-Levinson algorithm to include infinite variance models in terms of partial auto-covariation function and introduce a new information criteria for consistent order estimation of stable autoregressive model.In chapter six we explore the application of the techniques discussed in the previous chapter in signal processing. Frequency estimation of sinusoidal signal observed in symmetric stable noisy environment is discussed in this context. Here we introduced a parametric spectrum analysis and frequency estimate using power transfer function. Estimate of the power transfer function is obtained using the modified generalized Yule-Walker approach. Another important problem in statistical signal processing is to identify the number of sinusoidal components in an observed signal. We used a modified version of the proposed information criteria for this purpose.