(Appendix A) Oxygen and carbon isotope results of detrital carbonate grains of Heinrich layers from HU90-013-028 and IODP Sites 303-U1302/U1303/U1308 in the North Atlantic Ocean

We report oxygen and carbon isotope results of detrital carbonate grains from Heinrich layers at three sites in the North Atlantic located along a transect from the Labrador Sea to the eastern North Atlantic. Oxygen isotopic values of individual detrital carbonate grains from six Heinrich layers at all sites average - 5.6 ppm ± 1.5 ppm (1sigma; n = 166), reflecting values of dolomitic limestone derived from source areas in northeastern Canada. The d18O of bulk carbonate at Integrated Ocean Drilling Program (IODP) Site U1308 (re-occupation of Deep Sea Drilling Project (DSDP) Site 609) in the eastern North Atlantic records the proportion of detrital to biogenic carbonate and d18O decreases to - 5 ppm during Heinrich (H) events 1, 2, 4 and 5 relative to a background value of ~ 1 to 2 ppm for biogenic carbonate. Bulk d18O also decreases during H3 and H6 but only attains values of - 1ppm, indicating either a greater proportion of biogenic-to-detrital carbonate or a different source. Because the d18O of detrital carbonate is ~ 9 ppm lower than foraminifer carbonate, any fine-grained detrital carbonate not removed from the inner test chambers will lower foraminifer d18O. We conclude bulk carbonate d18O is a sensitive proxy for detrital carbonate and may be useful for identifying Heinrich layers in cores within and near the margins of the North Atlantic ice-rafted detritus (IRD) belt.

Palynological counts (dinoflagellate cysts) and foraminiferal geochemistry (d18O, d18C, Mg/Ca) of the Pliocene-Pleistocene transition in the North Atlantic

The position of the North Atlantic Current (NAC) during the intensification of Northern Hemisphere glaciation (iNHG) has been evaluated using dinoflagellate cyst assemblages and foraminiferal geochemistry from a ~260 kyr interval straddling the base of the Quaternary System from two sites: eastern North Atlantic Deep Sea Drilling Project Site 610 in the path of the present NAC and central North Atlantic Integrated Ocean Drilling Program Site U1313 in the subtropical gyre. Stable isotope and foraminiferal Mg/Ca analyses confirm cooling near the marine isotope stage (MIS) G7-G6 transition (2.74 Ma). However, a continued dominance of the dinoflagellate cyst Operculodinium centrocarpum sensu Wall and Dale (1966) indicates an active NAC in the eastern North Atlantic for a further 140 kyr. At MIS 104 (~2.60 Ma), a profound dinoflagellate cyst assemblage turnover indicates NAC shutdown in the eastern North Atlantic, implying elevated atmospheric pressure over the Arctic and a resulting shift in the westerlies that would have driven the NAC. These findings challenge recent suggestions that there was no significant southward shift of the NAC or the Arctic Front during iNHG, and reveal a fundamental climatic reorganization near the base of the Quaternary.

New constraints on European glacial freshwater releases to the North Atlantic Ocean

During the late Quaternary, both external and internal forcings have driven major climatic shifts from glacial to interglacial conditions. Nonlinear climatic steps characterized the transitions leading to these extrema, with intermediate excursions particularly well expressed in the dynamics of the Northern Hemisphere cryosphere. Here we document the impact of these dynamics on the north-eastern North Atlantic Ocean, focussing on the 35-10 ka interval. Sea-surface salinities have been reconstructed quantitatively based on two independent methods from core MD95-2002, recovered from the northern Bay of Biscay adjacent to the axis of the Manche paleoriver outlet and thus in connection with proximal European ice sheets and glaciers. Quantitative reconstructions deriving from dinocyst and planktonic foraminiferal analyses have been combined within a robust chronology to assess the amplitude and timing of hydrological changes in this region. Our study evidences strong pulsed freshwater discharges which may have impacted the North Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation.

On the Movements of the North Atlantic Subpolar Front in the Preinstrumental Past*

Three sediment records of sea surface temperature (SST) are analyzed that originate from distant locations in the North Atlantic, have centennial-to-multicentennial resolution, are based on the same reconstruction method and chronological assumptions, and span the past 15 000 yr. Using recursive least squares techniques, an estimate of the time-dependent North Atlantic SST field over the last 15 kyr is sought that is consistent with both the SST records and a surface ocean circulation model, given estimates of their respective error (co)variances. Under the authors' assumptions about data and model errors, it is found that the 10 degrees C mixed layer isotherm, which approximately traces the modern Subpolar Front, would have moved by ~15 degrees of latitude southward (northward) in the eastern North Atlantic at the onset (termination) of the Younger Dryas cold interval (YD), a result significant at the level of two standard deviations in the isotherm position. In contrast, meridional movements of the isotherm in the Newfoundland basin are estimated to be small and not significant. Thus, the isotherm would have pivoted twice around a region southeast of the Grand Banks, with a southwest-northeast orientation during the warm intervals of the Bolling-Allerod and the Holocene and a more zonal orientation and southerly position during the cold interval of the YD. This study provides an assessment of the significance of similar previous inferences and illustrates the potential of recursive least squares in paleoceanography.

The Westerly Index as complementary indicator of the North Atlantic oscillation in explaining drought variability across Europe

This paper analyses the influence of different atmospheric circulation indices on the multi-scalar drought variability across Europe by using the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI). The monthly circulation indices used in this study include the North Atlantic oscillation (NAO), the East Atlantic (EA), the Scandinavian (SCAN) and the East Atlantic-Western Russia (EA-WR) patterns, as well as the recently published Westerly Index (WI), defined as the persistence of westerly winds over the eastern north Atlantic region. The results indicate that European drought variability is better explained by the station-based NAO index and the WI than by any other combination of circulation indices. In northern and central Europe the variability of drought severity for different seasons and time-scales is strongly associated with the WI. On the contrary, the influence of the NAO on southern Europe droughts is stronger than that exerted by the WI. The correlation patterns of the NAO and WI with the SPEI show a spatial complementarity in shaping drought variability across Europe. Lagged correlations of the NAO and WI with the SPEI also indicate enough skill of both indices to anticipate drought severity several months in advance. As long as instrumental series of the NAO and WI are available, their combined use would allow inferring European drought variability for the last two centuries and improve the calibration and interpretation of paleoclimatic proxies associated with drought.

Impact of the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation on Tropical Cyclone Activity in the North Atlantic and Eastern North Pacific.

Tropical cyclones (TCs) are among the most devastating weather systems affecting the United States and Central America (USCA). Here we show that the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO) strongly modulates TC activity over the North Atlantic (NA) and eastern North Pacific (eNP). During positive IPO phases, less (more) TCs were observed over NA (eNP), likely due to the presence of stronger (weaker) vertical wind shear and the resulting changes in genesis potential. Furthermore, TCs over NA tend to keep their tracks more eastward and recurve at lower latitudes during positive IPO phases. Such variations are largely determined by changes in steering flow instead of changes in genesis locations. Over the eNP, smaller track variations are observed at different IPO phases with stable, westward movements of TCs prevailing. These findings have substantial implications for understanding decadal to inter-decadal fluctuations in the risk of TC landfalls along USCA coasts.

Large bio-geographical shifts in the north-eastern Atlantic Ocean: From the subpolar gyre, via plankton, to blue whiting and pilot whales

Pronounced changes in fauna, extending from the English Channel in the south to the Barents Sea in the north-east and off Greenland in the north-west, have occurred in the late 1920s, the late 1960s and again in the late 1990s. We attribute these events to exchanges of subarctic and subtropical water masses in the north-eastern North Atlantic Ocean, associated with changes in the strength and extent of the subpolar gyre. These exchanges lead to variations in the influence exerted by the subarctic or Lusitanian biomes on the intermediate faunistic zone in the north-eastern Atlantic. This strong and persistent bottom-up bio-physical link is demonstrated using a numerical ocean general circulation model and data on four trophically connected levels in the food chain – phytoplankton, zooplankton, blue whiting, and pilot whales. The plankton data give a unique basin-scale depiction of these changes, and a long pilot whale record from the Faroe Islands offers an exceptional temporal perspective over three centuries. Recent advances in simulating the dynamics of the subpolar gyre suggests a potential for predicting the distribution of the main faunistic zones in the north-eastern Atlantic a few years into the future, which might facilitate a more rational management of the commercially important fisheries in this region.