A proposal for the diagnosis of uncertain dynamic systems based on interval models

The performance of a model-based diagnosis system could be affected by several uncertainty sources, such as,model errors,uncertainty in measurements, and disturbances. This uncertainty can be handled by mean of interval models.The aim of this thesis is to propose a methodology for fault detection, isolation and identification based on interval models. The methodology includes some algorithms to obtain in an automatic way the symbolic expression of the residual generators enhancing the structural isolability of the faults, in order to design the fault detection tests. These algorithms are based on the structural model of the system. The stages of fault detection, isolation, and identification are stated as constraint satisfaction problems in continuous domains and solved by means of interval based consistency techniques. The qualitative fault isolation is enhanced by a reasoning in which the signs of the symptoms are derived from analytical redundancy relations or bond graph models of the system. An initial and empirical analysis regarding the differences between interval-based and statistical-based techniques is presented in this thesis. The performance and efficiency of the contributions are illustrated through several application examples, covering different levels of complexity.

Front spreading in population dynamic models. Theory and application to the Neolithic transition

This thesis presents population dynamics models that can be applied to predict the rate of spread of the Neolithic transition (change from hunter-gathering to farming economics) across the European continent, which took place about 9000 to 5000 years ago. The first models in this thesis provide predictions at a continental scale. We develop population dynamics models with explicit kernels and apply realistic data. We also derive a new time-delayed reaction-diffusion equation which yields speeds about a 10% slower than previous models. We also deal with a regional variability: the slowdown of the Neolithic front when reaching the North of Europe. We develop simple reaction-diffusion models that can predict the measured speeds in terms of the non-homogeneous distribution of pre-Neolithic (Mesolithic) population in Europe, which were present in higher densities at the North of the continent. Such models can explain the observed speeds.

Application of modal interval analysis to the simulation of the behaviour of dynamic systems with uncertain parameters

Els models matemàtics quantitatius són simplificacions de la realitat i per tant el comportament obtingut per simulació d'aquests models difereix dels reals. L'ús de models quantitatius complexes no és una solució perquè en la majoria dels casos hi ha alguna incertesa en el sistema real que no pot ser representada amb aquests models. Una forma de representar aquesta incertesa és mitjançant models qualitatius o semiqualitatius. Un model d'aquest tipus de fet representa un conjunt de models. La simulació del comportament de models quantitatius genera una trajectòria en el temps per a cada variable de sortida. Aquest no pot ser el resultat de la simulació d'un conjunt de models. Una forma de representar el comportament en aquest cas és mitjançant envolupants. L'envolupant exacta és complete, és a dir, inclou tots els possibles comportaments del model, i correcta, és a dir, tots els punts dins de l'envolupant pertanyen a la sortida de, com a mínim, una instància del model. La generació d'una envolupant així normalment és una tasca molt dura que es pot abordar, per exemple, mitjançant algorismes d'optimització global o comprovació de consistència. Per aquesta raó, en molts casos s'obtenen aproximacions a l'envolupant exacta. Una aproximació completa però no correcta a l'envolupant exacta és una envolupant sobredimensionada, mentre que una envolupant correcta però no completa és subdimensionada. Aquestes propietats s'han estudiat per diferents simuladors per a sistemes incerts.

Integration of knowledge-based, qualitative and numeric tools for real time dynamic systems supervision

The proposal presented in this thesis is to provide designers of knowledge based supervisory systems of dynamic systems with a framework to facilitate their tasks avoiding interface problems among tools, data flow and management. The approach is thought to be useful to both control and process engineers in assisting their tasks. The use of AI technologies to diagnose and perform control loops and, of course, assist process supervisory tasks such as fault detection and diagnose, are in the scope of this work. Special effort has been put in integration of tools for assisting expert supervisory systems design. With this aim the experience of Computer Aided Control Systems Design (CACSD) frameworks have been analysed and used to design a Computer Aided Supervisory Systems (CASSD) framework. In this sense, some basic facilities are required to be available in this proposed framework: ·

Object displays and control of dynamic systems

Recent work has suggested that for some tasks, graphical displays which visually integrate information from more than one source offer an advantage over more traditional displays which present the same information in a separated format. Three experiments are described which investigate this claim using a task which requires subjects to control a dynamic system. In the first experiment, the integrated display is compared to two separated displays, one an animated mimic diagram, the other an alphanumeric display. The integrated display is shown to support better performance in a control task, but experiment 2 shows that part of this advantage may be due to its analogue nature. Experiment 3 considers performance on a fault detection task, and shows no difference between the integrated and separated displays. The paper concludes that previous claims made for integrated displays may not generalize from monitoring to control tasks.

Innovative approach to building systems integration problems: Using systems theory, technological forecasting and scenario planning

Building services are worth about 2% GDP and are essential for the effective and efficient operations of the building. It is increasingly recognised that the value of a building is related to the way it supports the client organisation’s ongoing business operations. Building services are central to the functional performance of buildings and provide the necessary conditions for health, well-being, safety and security of the occupants. They frequently comprise several technologically distinct sub-systems and their design and construction requires the involvement of numerous disciplines and trades. Designers and contractors working on the same project are frequently employed by different companies. Materials and equipment is supplied by a diverse range of manufacturers. Facilities managers are responsible for operation of the building service in use. The coordination between these participants is crucially important to achieve optimum performance, but too often is neglected. This leaves room for serious faults. The need for effective integration is important. Modern technology offers increasing opportunities for integrated personal-control systems for lighting, ventilation and security as well as interoperability between systems. Opportunities for a new mode of systems integration are provided by the emergence of PFI/PPP procurements frameworks. This paper attempts to establish how systems integration can be achieved in the process of designing, constructing and operating building services. The essence of the paper therefore is to envisage the emergent organisational responses to the realisation of building services as an interactive systems network.

Design of a minimum variance multiple input-multiple output neuro self-tuning proportional-integral-derivative controller for non-linear dynamic systems

In this study a minimum variance neuro self-tuning proportional-integral-derivative (PID) controller is designed for complex multiple input-multiple output (MIMO) dynamic systems. An approximation model is constructed, which consists of two functional blocks. The first block uses a linear submodel to approximate dominant system dynamics around a selected number of operating points. The second block is used as an error agent, implemented by a neural network, to accommodate the inaccuracy possibly introduced by the linear submodel approximation, various complexities/uncertainties, and complicated coupling effects frequently exhibited in non-linear MIMO dynamic systems. With the proposed model structure, controller design of an MIMO plant with n inputs and n outputs could be, for example, decomposed into n independent single input-single output (SISO) subsystem designs. The effectiveness of the controller design procedure is initially verified through simulations of industrial examples.

A neural network enhanced generalized minimum variance self-tuning proportional, integral and derivative control algorithm for complex dynamic systems

A neural network enhanced proportional, integral and derivative (PID) controller is presented that combines the attributes of neural network learning with a generalized minimum-variance self-tuning control (STC) strategy. The neuro PID controller is structured with plant model identification and PID parameter tuning. The plants to be controlled are approximated by an equivalent model composed of a simple linear submodel to approximate plant dynamics around operating points, plus an error agent to accommodate the errors induced by linear submodel inaccuracy due to non-linearities and other complexities. A generalized recursive least-squares algorithm is used to identify the linear submodel, and a layered neural network is used to detect the error agent in which the weights are updated on the basis of the error between the plant output and the output from the linear submodel. The procedure for controller design is based on the equivalent model, and therefore the error agent is naturally functioned within the control law. In this way the controller can deal not only with a wide range of linear dynamic plants but also with those complex plants characterized by severe non-linearity, uncertainties and non-minimum phase behaviours. Two simulation studies are provided to demonstrate the effectiveness of the controller design procedure.

Approximation of non-autonomous dynamic systems by continuous time recurrent neural networks

This work provides a framework for the approximation of a dynamic system of the form x˙=f(x)+g(x)u by dynamic recurrent neural network. This extends previous work in which approximate realisation of autonomous dynamic systems was proven. Given certain conditions, the first p output neural units of a dynamic n-dimensional neural model approximate at a desired proximity a p-dimensional dynamic system with n>p. The neural architecture studied is then successfully implemented in a nonlinear multivariable system identification case study.

International examples of large-scale systems-theory and practice IV: B2B e-commerce implementation in the Australian context

Two of the most commonly used classifications in IS research are the factor approach and the process approach. While many studies of IS implementation are undertaken using a factor approach, little research so far examines the process of e-commerce implementation, especially in relation to the implementation of e-commerce in business-to-business (B2B) relationships. A holistic understanding of implementation which combines both the factor and process approaches using a case study method, is suggested as particularly suitable because of its ability to capture the reality of e-commerce implementation in an organisation's natural environment and in much greater detail than is possible using one of these approaches alone. In this paper, therefore, we endeavour to contribute to what we perceive as a gap in the body of theory surrounding the implementation process in the business-to-business e-commerce literature. We describe the findings of multiple case studies involving ten major Australian e-commerce initiators. In addition to confirming our earlier finding of the importance of non-technical factors for the success of the implementation process we also present, through our case studies, the various management and business issues associated with the success or failure of B2B e-commerce implementation.

Fuzzy neural networks for control of dynamic systems

This thesis provides a unified and comprehensive treatment of the fuzzy neural networks as the intelligent controllers. This work has been motivated by a need to develop the solid control methodologies capable of coping with the complexity, the nonlinearity, the interactions, and the time variance of the processes under control. In addition, the dynamic behavior of such processes is strongly influenced by the disturbances and the noise, and such processes are characterized by a large degree of uncertainty. Therefore, it is important to integrate an intelligent component to increase the control system ability to extract the functional relationships from the process and to change such relationships to improve the control precision, that is, to display the learning and the reasoning abilities. The objective of this thesis was to develop a self-organizing learning controller for above processes by using a combination of the fuzzy logic and the neural networks. An on-line, direct fuzzy neural controller using the process input-output measurement data and the reference model with both structural and parameter tuning has been developed to fulfill the above objective. A number of practical issues were considered. This includes the dynamic construction of the controller in order to alleviate the bias/variance dilemma, the universal approximation property, and the requirements of the locality and the linearity in the parameters. Several important issues in the intelligent control were also considered such as the overall control scheme, the requirement of the persistency of excitation and the bounded learning rates of the controller for the overall closed loop stability. Other important issues considered in this thesis include the dependence of the generalization ability and the optimization methods on the data distribution, and the requirements for the on-line learning and the feedback structure of the controller. Fuzzy inference specific issues such as the influence of the choice of the defuzzification method, T-norm operator and the membership function on the overall performance of the controller were also discussed. In addition, the e-completeness requirement and the use of the fuzzy similarity measure were also investigated. Main emphasis of the thesis has been on the applications to the real-world problems such as the industrial process control. The applicability of the proposed method has been demonstrated through the empirical studies on several real-world control problems of industrial complexity. This includes the temperature and the number-average molecular weight control in the continuous stirred tank polymerization reactor, and the torsional vibration, the eccentricity, the hardness and the thickness control in the cold rolling mills. Compared to the traditional linear controllers and the dynamically constructed neural network, the proposed fuzzy neural controller shows the highest promise as an effective approach to such nonlinear multi-variable control problems with the strong influence of the disturbances and the noise on the dynamic process behavior. In addition, the applicability of the proposed method beyond the strictly control area has also been investigated, in particular to the data mining and the knowledge elicitation. When compared to the decision tree method and the pruned neural network method for the data mining, the proposed fuzzy neural network is able to achieve a comparable accuracy with a more compact set of rules. In addition, the performance of the proposed fuzzy neural network is much better for the classes with the low occurrences in the data set compared to the decision tree method. Thus, the proposed fuzzy neural network may be very useful in situations where the important information is contained in a small fraction of the available data.

Observation-switching linear dynamic systems for tracking humans through unexpected partial occlusions by scene objects

This paper focuses on the problem of tracking people through occlusions by scene objects. Rather than relying on models of the scene to predict when occlusions will occur as other researchers have done, this paper proposes a linear dynamic system that switches between two alternatives of the position measurement in order to handle occlusions as they occur. The filter automatically switches between a foot-based measure of position (assuming z = Q) to a head-based position measure (given the person's height) when an occlusion of the person's lower body occurs. No knowledge of the scene or its occluding objects is used. Unlike similar research [2, 14], the approach does not assume a fixed height for people and so is able to track humans through occlusions even when they change height during the occlusion. The approach is evaluated on three furnished scenes containing tables, chairs, desks and partitions. Occlusions range from occlusions of legs, occlusions whilst being seated and near-total occlusions where only the person's head is visible. Results show that the approach provides a significant reduction in false-positive tracks in a multi-camera environment, and more than halves the number of lost tracks in single monocular camera views.