Regional hydrological impacts of climate change: implications for water management in India

Climate change is most likely to introduce an additional stress to already stressed water systems in developing countries. Climate change is inherently linked with the hydrological cycle and is expected to cause significant alterations in regional water resources systems necessitating measures for adaptation and mitigation. Increasing temperatures, for example, are likely to change precipitation patterns resulting in alterations of regional water availability, evapotranspirative water demand of crops and vegetation, extremes of floods and droughts, and water quality. A comprehensive assessment of regional hydrological impacts of climate change is thus necessary. Global climate model simulations provide future projections of the climate system taking into consideration changes in external forcings, such as atmospheric carbon-dioxide and aerosols, especially those resulting from anthropogenic emissions. However, such simulations are typically run at a coarse scale, and are not equipped to reproduce regional hydrological processes. This paper summarizes recent research on the assessment of climate change impacts on regional hydrology, addressing the scale and physical processes mismatch issues. Particular attention is given to changes in water availability, irrigation demands and water quality. This paper also includes description of the methodologies developed to address uncertainties in the projections resulting from incomplete knowledge about future evolution of the human-induced emissions and from using multiple climate models. Approaches for investigating possible causes of historically observed changes in regional hydrological variables are also discussed. Illustrations of all the above-mentioned methods are provided for Indian regions with a view to specifically aiding water management in India.

The decline in the commercially important species of fish and predominance of Clarias lazera in Lake Chad

About 86 species of fish have been recorded in the Lake Chad. Most of the species occurring in the lake are widespread including most of the commercially important species. Fish distribution in the lake was adversely affected by the 1972/73 and 1983/84 droughts. The commercially important species before the 1972/73 drought were; Lates, Labeo distichodus, Heterotis, Gymnarchus, Hydrocynus, Citharinus and Bagrus. Other species which had less commercial value at that time include, Clarias, Gnathanemus, Polypterus, Protopterus, Tilapia and Synodontis. Lates niloticus was the most predominant species of commercial importance comprising 50-60% of the total catches of fishermen between 1962 and 1973. Before the 1972/73 drought, occurrence of Clarias lazera was negligible and restricted to long line catches and had little commercial value. As a result of the drought of 1972/73 which resulted in near drying up to the northern sector of the lake, fish populations were confined to isolated pools and were completely scooped out. The remaining fish populations retreated to the southern basin where enough water always remained to hold the surviving representatives of the population. The effects of the drought resulted in occurrence of the little known C. lazera along with other hardy species like Tilapia and Protopterus to dominate the existing fish species composition. In 1976, C. lazera dominated the total catches of fishermen with 85.6%. An overview of the fish population in the lake, their relative abundance, changes in species composition, the effects of drought on the fauna of the lake based on the available data are discussed in this paper

Relación entre la abundancia y estructura de la comunidad de peces y el régimen hidrológico, en lagunas de la alta cuenca del río Salado

This thesis explored the relationship between hydrological variability and associated changes in fish communities in the upper Salado river lakes (Pampa plain, Argentina). The sampling design included five sites along the river connected lakes being explored for fish, hydrological and environmental data during different hydrological conditions. The temporal dynamic of main environmental characteristics of these lakes show that hydrology largely regulates some of the most important factors influencing fish ecology. Changes in fish communities associated with this hydrological and environmental dynamic allow to speculate a first approach towards the functioning of the system as a whole. Following oscillation between droughts and floods, study lakes have shown significant changes on abundance of major fish species, as well as on their recruitment success, which finally leaded to marked changes in fish community structure. Interestingly, trophic structure of communities did not change as much. iOdontesthes bonariensis/i was more abundant during droughts and in saltier sites but also displayed an improvement in recruitment success during these harsh abiotic conditions. Conversely, the abundance of iParapimelodus valenciennis, Cyphocharax voga/i and iCyprinus carpio/i as well as its recruitment success, were largely favoured by lower water residence times and total salinity. This dichotomy is mainly based on different life history strategies of these species against flor and environmental variability and it support the existence of different functional groups among the fish species of upper Salado river lakes. iOligosarcus jenynsii/i did not showed as evident functional response. In conclusion, hydrological and environmental variability can be considered as one of the main factors regulating the functioning and structure of fish communities in these very shallow lowland river lakes of the Pampa plain. Following these results some implications for an eventual regulation of the river regime are discussed.

Effects of Climate Change on the European Nuclear Power Sector

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Impacts of Climate Change on European Critical Infrastructures: The Case of the Power Sector

23 p.

Temporal and spatial variations in the quality of water in El Gergal Reservior, Seville, Spain

It is often difficult to define ‘water quality’ with any degree of precision. One approach is that suggested by Battarbee (1997) and is based on the extent to which individual lakes have changed compared with their natural ‘baseline’ status. Defining the base-line status of artificial lakes and reservoirs however, is, very difficult. In ecological terms, the definition of quality must include some consideration of their functional characteristics and the extent to which these characteristics are self-sustaining. The challenge of managing lakes in a sustainable way is particularly acute in semi-arid, Mediterranean countries. Here the quality of the water is strongly influenced by the unpredictability of the rainfall as well as year-to-year variations in the seasonal averages. Wise management requires profound knowledge of how these systems function. Thus a holistic approach must be adopted and the factors influencing the seasonal dynamics of the lakes quantified over a range of spatial and temporal scales. In this article, the authors describe some of the ways in which both long-term and short-term changes in the weather have influenced the seasonal and spatial dynamics of phytoplankton in El Gergal, a water supply reservoir situated in the south of Spain. The quality of the water stored in this reservoir is typically very good but surface blooms of algae commonly appear during warm, calm periods when the water level is low. El Gergal reservoir is managed by the Empresa Municipal de Abastecimiento y Saneamiento (EMASESA) and supplies water for domestic, commercial and industrial use to an area which includes the city of Seville and twelve of its surrounding towns (ca. 1.3 million inhabitants). El Gergal is the last of two reservoirs in a chain of four situated in the Rivera de Huelva basin, a tributary of the Guadalquivir river. It was commissioned by EMASESA in 1979 and since then the company has monitored its main limnological parameters on, at least, a monthly basis and used this information to improve the management of the reservoir. As a consequence of these intensive studies the physical, chemical and biological information acquired during this period makes the El Gergal database one of the most complete in Spain. In this article the authors focus on three ‘weather-related’ effects that have had a significant impact on the composition and distribution of phytoplankton in El Gergal: (i) the changes associated with severe droughts; (ii) the spatial variations produced by short-term changes in the weather; (iii) the impact of water transfers on the seasonal dynamics of the dinoflagellate Ceratium.

Simulations of phytoplankton dynamics in El Gergal Reservoir, Southern Spain (PROTECH)

The Mediterranean region is characterised by a variable climate with most of the rain falling during the winter and frequent summer droughts. Such warm, dry periods are ideal for the growth of large algal blooms that often consist of potentially toxic Cyanobacteria. This makes the management of water for human use particularly challenging in such a climate and it is important to understand how such blooms can be avoided or at least be reduced in size. PROTECH (Phytoplankton RespOnses To Environmental CHange) is a model that simulates the dynamics of different species of phytoplankton populations in lakes and reservoirs. Its distinct advantage over similar models is its ability to simulate the relative composition of the algal flora, allowing both quantitative and qualitative conclusions to be drawn e.g. whether Cyanobacteria could be a potential problem. PROTECH has been applied primarily to lakes and reservoirs in northern Europe. Recently, however, the model has been applied to water bodies in lower latitudes, including Australia to a water supply reservoir in the south of Spain, El Gergal. El Gergal is the last in a chain of reservoirs that supply water to the city of Seville. It was brought into service in April 1979 and has a maximum storage volume of 35 000 000 m3. This article summarises the application of PROTECH in order to simulate the following problems: • the effect of a large influx of Ceratium biomass into El Gergal from another reservoir • the effect of using alternative water sources instead of the Guadalquivir River (used occasionally to raise water levels in El Gergal) • the effect of installing tertiary sewage treatment on the Cala River • the effect of simulated drought conditions on phytoplankton in the reservoir.

The fisheries Aspects of North West Water AuthoritySchemes to Increase Water Abstraction in West Cumbria

This is the report on the Fisheries Aspects of North West Water Authority Schemes to Increase Water Abstraction in West Cumbria by the Egremont and District Anglers’ Association. Existing river pollution and water abstraction in the Ennerdale Lake-River Ehen system is shown to have caused a major deterioration in the conditions in the Ehen fishery. This is reflected by the fact that catches of salmon, sea trout and smelts on the Ehen have all fallen to roughly 6% of the 1965 level; wich is far worse than the deterioration shown in salmon catches for S. W. Cumberland as a whole. Recommendations are made, in the light of proposals by North West Water Authority to increase water abstraction in West Cumbria, to prevent further deterioration in the Ehen fishery in the short term and to improve the situation in the longer term. It contains sections on pollution, water abstraction and fisheries background, flow statistics for and discussion of high water-droughts on the River Ehen, effects of droughts on Tidal Water and a discussion of N.W.W.A. Paper entitled `Water Resources in West Cumbria’ in the light of conditions on the River Ehen.

A mechanism for the link between solar-irradiance variations and regional precipitation

Although the mechanisms of climatic fluctuations are not completely understood, changes in global solar irradiance show a link with regional precipitation. A proposed mechanism for this linkage begins with absorption of varying amounts of solar energy by tropical oceans, which may aid in development of ocean temperature anomalies. These anomalies are then transported by major ocean currents to locations where the stored energy is released into the atmosphere, altering pressure and moisture patterns that can ultimately affect regional precipitation. Correlation coefficients between annual averages of monthly differences in empirically modeled solar-irradiance variations and annual state-divisional precipitation values in the United States for 1950 to 1988 were computed with lag times of 0 to 7 years. The highest correlations (R=0.65) occur in the Pacific Northwest with a lag time of 4 years, which is about equal to the travel time of water within the Pacific Gyre from the western tropical Pacific Ocean to the Gulf of Alaska. With positive correlations, droughts coincide with periods of negative irradiance differences (dry, high-pressure development), and wet periods coincide with periods of positive differences (moist, low-pressure development).

1988 summer drought over the Great Plains: some causes and predictions

EXTRACT (SEE PDF FOR FULL ABSTRACT): The 1988 summer drought over much of the United States is described in terms of hemispheric mid-tropospheric flow patterns, temperature and precipitation anomalies, and sea surface temperature patterns. This drought was similar to earlier Great Plains droughts, although spatially more extensive than most. Three attempts to predict this drought from antecedent spring were moderately successful, though no one anticipated its severity and extent. ... A modified barotropic model iterating from a mean summer estimate of seasonal forcing from the May mid-tropospheric height pattern was reasonably successful in forecasting the drought. Sea surface temperature indications show that cold water (La Niña) along the equator subsequent to the 1987 El Niño, while contributory, cannot be considered a principal cause of the drought, since earlier cold water episodes did not produce drought, and other drought episodes occurred in the absence of cold equatorial waters.

Can a climate record be extracted from giant sequoia tree rings?

Extreme low growth events in giant sequoia ring-width index series coincide with severe droughts in the San Joaquin drainage, on whose eastern flank the sequoia groves stand. Comparison with a network of 102 largely moisture-sensitive tree-ring chronologies from western North America suggests that this relationship has been stable for at least 380 years. The twentieth century is not unusual in the frequency of these events. We expect the growth record will soon be replicated for over 2000 years at two locations.

Simulation and diagnosis of large-scale atmospheric moisture and surface hydrology over North America

We describe a preliminary investigation into large-scale atmospheric and surface moisture variations over North America. We compare large-scale hydrologic budgets in the Los Alamos general circulation model (GCM) to observed precipitation and vertically integrated atmospheric moisture fluxes derived from the National Meteorological Center's operational analyses. THe GCM faithfully simulates the integrated flux divergence and P-E differences. However, the integrated moisture content is too low, and precipitation and evaporation are too high. The model produces summertime soil moisture dryness, which supports previous studies showing increased droughts under warmer conditions.

Examining the possibilty of multiplication and breeding of (Schizothorav [sic] zarudnyi) in order to restoration of regional aquatics reservations of Hamoon Lake and taking its advantag [sic] for aquaculture

Schizothorax zarudnvi, is an endemic fish of east country waters. (Triple lagoons of Hamoon and relevant water resources) that in the world it is reported in this resource specially. This fish named Hamoon mahi is one of the most economically valuable species in this region. Because of the recent years droughts, Hamoon logoon has been drive since 2000. Also, semi-wells (a semi natural resource) were affected drastically by recent drought years and their volume reduced to nearly one third of their real volume and resulted in changing at growth and reproduction physiology process in Schizothorax zanidnyi, brood stocks. Beginning of this project was done from October 2003. It's field studies begun (brood catching) since November 2001 by two methods including entangling gairs and at semi wells of Sistan that (Beach seine) had maximum rate of preparing qualified brood stocks. Broods transferred to Cyprinidea reproduction work shop of Zahak and after taking primary measures they stored in to the edaphic pools. Increasing the success safety factor (coefficient) for artificial reproduction of Sthizothorax zarudnyi , identifying the appropriate tune for Hormonal acceptance (physiological preparation of broods) is needed , so this important work was done regularly by histological studies and GSI measurements since November. Highest GSI rates of females (%80.51) and highest IV stage abundance of sexual maturity (%l 00) were observed an march. On the base of this date, Hormone therapy was done on broods on march. The used hormones are as follows Hypophysis. extraction, GnRHa and Anti Dopamin at the dozes of 3-6 ml, 20-30kg and 10-15 ml per kg body weight respectively and 2-3 times from 11-12-80 they were injected. Injected broods kept in to two circumstances, flow-through (rounded pool) and stagnant systems. In stagnant system 14 and 19 individuals of female and male (Schizothorax zauiulnri) broods, respectively injected in 11th, 15111, 19th, and 24th of march 1380. Non of the injected broods in 11 and 15 and 19th march (in stagnant Condition) answered to Hormone therapy. After final injection broods had general less activity and a few of them died. Mean temperature of brood pond waters (daily) which were injected. Fluctuated between 10-25-13. 63°c but injected broods on 24th march had different characteristics. They had pale color and had few fecundity. In this stage of injection they hadn't any successful vulation. After injection, Mean daily water temperature was 15, 88-17, 54°c. In Flowing system, 13-16 individual of males and females respectively were injected on 15th, 19th, 22th and 23th march. None of injected producers on 15th and 19th march with mean daily water temperature of 10, 25-12°c were prepared for spawning but injected producers on 22nd an 23th march with mean daily water temperature of 13.5-1 rc responded about 75-100 percent. (Schizothorax zarudnyi) brood stocks were prepared for spawning after 353-428 hours/day from final injection. Diameter of obtained eggs (before fertilization) was between 1.9-2.3 min and of fertilized eggs was 3.8mm. Fertilized eggs of (Schizothorax zarudnyi) were hatched after 6-7 days with mean water temperature of 17.08°c. Mean length of on one day larvae was 9.47 mm. Larvae was 9.47 mm. Larvae adsorbed the whole yolk sac after , 5-6 days at 17- 1°c and were prepared for releasing in to edaphic pools. Because of the lack of necessary and complementary facilities in the region , they had to release them in to veniros and growing them for 8 days. At the end of 18th day , 35000 larvae (at first) released into an edaphic pond with a volume of 150m2. After growing them for one moth , mean length and weight of new hatched larvae was 29.41 mm and 1.12►r , respectively. With respect to results of this investigation , artificial reproduction of (Schizothorax zarudnyi) Can be possible at 14-17°C and flowing water with Hormonal treatment. It -s breeding has increased development than other cultural specious in the region. Due to high economical value of this specious in Sistan and ti-s specialization east waters of Iran and having high resistance and proper growth There is a need of it's development and reproduction and culture in fish culture fanns (edaphic ponds• two-purpose pools) at the region and country.

Intensification of summer rainfall variability in the southeastern United States during recent decades

The variability of summer precipitation in the southeastern United States is examined in this study using 60-yr (1948-2007) rainfall data. The Southeast summer rainfalls exhibited higher interannual variability with more intense summer droughts and anomalous wetness in the recent 30 years (1978-2007) than in the prior 30 years (1948-77). Such intensification of summer rainfall variability was consistent with a decrease of light (0.1-1 mm day-1) and medium (1-10 mm day-1) rainfall events during extremely dry summers and an increase of heavy (.10 mm day-1) rainfall events in extremely wet summers. Changes in rainfall variability were also accompanied by a southward shift of the region of maximum zonal wind variability at the jet stream level in the latter period. The covariability between the Southeast summer precipitation and sea surface temperatures (SSTs) is also analyzed using the singular value decomposition (SVD) method. It is shown that the increase of Southeast summer precipitation variability is primarily associated with a higher SST variability across the equatorial Atlantic and also SST warming in the Atlantic. © 2010 American Meteorological Society.

Cumulative early life adversity predicts longevity in wild baboons.

In humans and other animals, harsh circumstances in early life predict morbidity and mortality in adulthood. Multiple adverse conditions are thought to be especially toxic, but this hypothesis has rarely been tested in a prospective, longitudinal framework, especially in long-lived mammals. Here we use prospective data on 196 wild female baboons to show that cumulative early adversity predicts natural adult lifespan. Females who experience ≥3 sources of early adversity die a median of 10 years earlier than females who experience ≤1 adverse circumstances (median lifespan is 18.5 years). Females who experience the most adversity are also socially isolated in adulthood, suggesting that social processes partially explain the link between early adversity and adult survival. Our results provide powerful evidence for the developmental origins of health and disease and indicate that close ties between early adversity and survival arise even in the absence of health habit and health care-related explanations.