Distribution of Florisphaera profunda and Helicosphaera carteri in down core and surface sediments

A detailed assessment of the respective roles of production, export, and subsequent preservation of organic carbon (Corg) in the eastern Mediterranean (EMED) sediments during the formation of sapropels remains elusive. Here we present new micropaleontological results for both surface samples taken at several locations in the EMED and last interglacial sapropel S5 from core LC21 in the southeastern Aegean Sea. A strong exponential anticorrelation between relative abundances of the lower photic zone coccolithophore Florisphaera profundain the surface sediments and modern concentrations of chlorophyll a (Chl-a) at the sea surface suggests thatF. profunda percentages can be used to track past productivity changes in the EMED. Prior to S5 deposition, an abrupt and large increase of F. profunda percentages in LC21 coincided (within the multidecadal resolution of the records) with the marked freshening of EMED surface waters. This suggests a strong coupling between freshwater-bound surface to intermediate water (density) stratification and enhanced upward advection of nutrients to the base of the photic zone, fuelling a productive deep chlorophyll maximum (DCM) underneath a nutrient-starved surface layer. Our findings imply that (at least) at the onset of sapropel formation physical and biogeochemical processes likely operated in tandem, enabling high Corg accumulation at the seafloor.

An image segmentation based on a genetic algorithm for determining soil coverage by crop residues

Determination of the soil coverage by crop residues after ploughing is a fundamental element of Conservation Agriculture. This paper presents the application of genetic algorithms employed during the fine tuning of the segmentation process of a digital image with the aim of automatically quantifying the residue coverage. In other words, the objective is to achieve a segmentation that would permit the discrimination of the texture of the residue so that the output of the segmentation process is a binary image in which residue zones are isolated from the rest. The RGB images used come from a sample of images in which sections of terrain were photographed with a conventional camera positioned in zenith orientation atop a tripod. The images were taken outdoors under uncontrolled lighting conditions. Up to 92% similarity was achieved between the images obtained by the segmentation process proposed in this paper and the templates made by an elaborate manual tracing process. In addition to the proposed segmentation procedure and the fine tuning procedure that was developed, a global quantification of the soil coverage by residues for the sampled area was achieved that differed by only 0.85% from the quantification obtained using template images. Moreover, the proposed method does not depend on the type of residue present in the image. The study was conducted at the experimental farm “El Encín” in Alcalá de Henares (Madrid, Spain).

A fitting algorithm for random modeling the PLC channel

The characteristics of the power-line communication (PLC) channel are difficult to model due to the heterogeneity of the networks and the lack of common wiring practices. To obtain the full variability of the PLC channel, random channel generators are of great importance for the design and testing of communication algorithms. In this respect, we propose a random channel generator that is based on the top-down approach. Basically, we describe the multipath propagation and the coupling effects with an analytical model. We introduce the variability into a restricted set of parameters and, finally, we fit the model to a set of measured channels. The proposed model enables a closed-form description of both the mean path-loss profile and the statistical correlation function of the channel frequency response. As an example of application, we apply the procedure to a set of in-home measured channels in the band 2-100 MHz whose statistics are available in the literature. The measured channels are divided into nine classes according to their channel capacity. We provide the parameters for the random generation of channels for all nine classes, and we show that the results are consistent with the experimental ones. Finally, we merge the classes to capture the entire heterogeneity of in-home PLC channels. In detail, we introduce the class occurrence probability, and we present a random channel generator that targets the ensemble of all nine classes. The statistics of the composite set of channels are also studied, and they are compared to the results of experimental measurement campaigns in the literature.

Methodologies for Collision Risk Computation = Metodologías para Cálculo de Riesgo de Colisión

Esta tesis aborda metodologías para el cálculo de riesgo de colisión de satélites. La minimización del riesgo de colisión se debe abordar desde dos puntos de vista distintos. Desde el punto de vista operacional, es necesario filtrar los objetos que pueden presentar un encuentro entre todos los objetos que comparten el espacio con un satélite operacional. Puesto que las órbitas, del objeto operacional y del objeto envuelto en la colisión, no se conocen perfectamente, la geometría del encuentro y el riesgo de colisión deben ser evaluados. De acuerdo con dicha geometría o riesgo, una maniobra evasiva puede ser necesaria para evitar la colisión. Dichas maniobras implican un consumo de combustible que impacta en la capacidad de mantenimiento orbital y por tanto de la visa útil del satélite. Por tanto, el combustible necesario a lo largo de la vida útil de un satélite debe ser estimado en fase de diseño de la misión para una correcta definición de su vida útil, especialmente para satélites orbitando en regímenes orbitales muy poblados. Los dos aspectos, diseño de misión y aspectos operacionales en relación con el riesgo de colisión están abordados en esta tesis y se resumen en la Figura 3. En relación con los aspectos relacionados con el diseño de misión (parte inferior de la figura), es necesario evaluar estadísticamente las características de de la población espacial y las teorías que permiten calcular el número medio de eventos encontrados por una misión y su capacidad de reducir riesgo de colisión. Estos dos aspectos definen los procedimientos más apropiados para reducir el riesgo de colisión en fase operacional. Este aspecto es abordado, comenzando por la teoría descrita en [Sánchez-Ortiz, 2006]T.14 e implementada por el autor de esta tesis en la herramienta ARES [Sánchez-Ortiz, 2004b]T.15 proporcionada por ESA para la evaluación de estrategias de evitación de colisión. Esta teoría es extendida en esta tesis para considerar las características de los datos orbitales disponibles en las fases operacionales de un satélite (sección 4.3.3). Además, esta teoría se ha extendido para considerar riesgo máximo de colisión cuando la incertidumbre de las órbitas de objetos catalogados no es conocida (como se da el caso para los TLE), y en el caso de querer sólo considerar riesgo de colisión catastrófico (sección 4.3.2.3). Dichas mejoras se han incluido en la nueva versión de ARES [Domínguez-González and Sánchez-Ortiz, 2012b]T.12 puesta a disposición a través de [SDUP,2014]R.60. En fase operacional, los catálogos que proporcionan datos orbitales de los objetos espaciales, son procesados rutinariamente, para identificar posibles encuentros que se analizan en base a algoritmos de cálculo de riesgo de colisión para proponer maniobras de evasión. Actualmente existe una única fuente de datos públicos, el catálogo TLE (de sus siglas en inglés, Two Line Elements). Además, el Joint Space Operation Center (JSpOC) Americano proporciona mensajes con alertas de colisión (CSM) cuando el sistema de vigilancia americano identifica un posible encuentro. En función de los datos usados en fase operacional (TLE o CSM), la estrategia de evitación puede ser diferente debido a las características de dicha información. Es preciso conocer las principales características de los datos disponibles (respecto a la precisión de los datos orbitales) para estimar los posibles eventos de colisión encontrados por un satélite a lo largo de su vida útil. En caso de los TLE, cuya precisión orbital no es proporcionada, la información de precisión orbital derivada de un análisis estadístico se puede usar también en el proceso operacional así como en el diseño de la misión. En caso de utilizar CSM como base de las operaciones de evitación de colisiones, se conoce la precisión orbital de los dos objetos involucrados. Estas características se han analizado en detalle, evaluando estadísticamente las características de ambos tipos de datos. Una vez concluido dicho análisis, se ha analizado el impacto de utilizar TLE o CSM en las operaciones del satélite (sección 5.1). Este análisis se ha publicado en una revista especializada [Sánchez-Ortiz, 2015b]T.3. En dicho análisis, se proporcionan recomendaciones para distintas misiones (tamaño del satélite y régimen orbital) en relación con las estrategias de evitación de colisión para reducir el riesgo de colisión de manera significativa. Por ejemplo, en el caso de un satélite en órbita heliosíncrona en régimen orbital LEO, el valor típico del ACPL que se usa de manera extendida es 10-4. Este valor no es adecuado cuando los esquemas de evitación de colisión se realizan sobre datos TLE. En este caso, la capacidad de reducción de riesgo es prácticamente nula (debido a las grandes incertidumbres de los datos TLE) incluso para tiempos cortos de predicción. Para conseguir una reducción significativa del riesgo, sería necesario usar un ACPL en torno a 10-6 o inferior, produciendo unas 10 alarmas al año por satélite (considerando predicciones a un día) o 100 alarmas al año (con predicciones a tres días). Por tanto, la principal conclusión es la falta de idoneidad de los datos TLE para el cálculo de eventos de colisión. Al contrario, usando los datos CSM, debido a su mejor precisión orbital, se puede obtener una reducción significativa del riesgo con ACPL en torno a 10-4 (considerando 3 días de predicción). Incluso 5 días de predicción pueden ser considerados con ACPL en torno a 10-5. Incluso tiempos de predicción más largos se pueden usar (7 días) con reducción del 90% del riesgo y unas 5 alarmas al año (en caso de predicciones de 5 días, el número de maniobras se mantiene en unas 2 al año). La dinámica en GEO es diferente al caso LEO y hace que el crecimiento de las incertidumbres orbitales con el tiempo de propagación sea menor. Por el contrario, las incertidumbres derivadas de la determinación orbital son peores que en LEO por las diferencias en las capacidades de observación de uno y otro régimen orbital. Además, se debe considerar que los tiempos de predicción considerados para LEO pueden no ser apropiados para el caso de un satélite GEO (puesto que tiene un periodo orbital mayor). En este caso usando datos TLE, una reducción significativa del riesgo sólo se consigue con valores pequeños de ACPL, produciendo una alarma por año cuando los eventos de colisión se predicen a un día vista (tiempo muy corto para implementar maniobras de evitación de colisión).Valores más adecuados de ACPL se encuentran entre 5•10-8 y 10-7, muy por debajo de los valores usados en las operaciones actuales de la mayoría de las misiones GEO (de nuevo, no se recomienda en este régimen orbital basar las estrategias de evitación de colisión en TLE). Los datos CSM permiten una reducción de riesgo apropiada con ACPL entre 10-5 y 10-4 con tiempos de predicción cortos y medios (10-5 se recomienda para predicciones a 5 o 7 días). El número de maniobras realizadas sería una en 10 años de misión. Se debe notar que estos cálculos están realizados para un satélite de unos 2 metros de radio. En el futuro, otros sistemas de vigilancia espacial (como el programa SSA de la ESA), proporcionarán catálogos adicionales de objetos espaciales con el objetivo de reducir el riesgo de colisión de los satélites. Para definir dichos sistemas de vigilancia, es necesario identificar las prestaciones del catalogo en función de la reducción de riesgo que se pretende conseguir. Las características del catálogo que afectan principalmente a dicha capacidad son la cobertura (número de objetos incluidos en el catalogo, limitado principalmente por el tamaño mínimo de los objetos en función de las limitaciones de los sensores utilizados) y la precisión de los datos orbitales (derivada de las prestaciones de los sensores en relación con la precisión de las medidas y la capacidad de re-observación de los objetos). El resultado de dicho análisis (sección 5.2) se ha publicado en una revista especializada [Sánchez-Ortiz, 2015a]T.2. Este análisis no estaba inicialmente previsto durante la tesis, y permite mostrar como la teoría descrita en esta tesis, inicialmente definida para facilitar el diseño de misiones (parte superior de la figura 1) se ha extendido y se puede aplicar para otros propósitos como el dimensionado de un sistema de vigilancia espacial (parte inferior de la figura 1). La principal diferencia de los dos análisis se basa en considerar las capacidades de catalogación (precisión y tamaño de objetos observados) como una variable a modificar en el caso de un diseño de un sistema de vigilancia), siendo fijas en el caso de un diseño de misión. En el caso de las salidas generadas en el análisis, todos los aspectos calculados en un análisis estadístico de riesgo de colisión son importantes para diseño de misión (con el objetivo de calcular la estrategia de evitación y la cantidad de combustible a utilizar), mientras que en el caso de un diseño de un sistema de vigilancia, los aspectos más importantes son el número de maniobras y falsas alarmas (fiabilidad del sistema) y la capacidad de reducción de riesgo (efectividad del sistema). Adicionalmente, un sistema de vigilancia espacial debe ser caracterizado por su capacidad de evitar colisiones catastróficas (evitando así in incremento dramático de la población de basura espacial), mientras que el diseño de una misión debe considerar todo tipo de encuentros, puesto que un operador está interesado en evitar tanto las colisiones catastróficas como las letales. Del análisis de las prestaciones (tamaño de objetos a catalogar y precisión orbital) requeridas a un sistema de vigilancia espacial se concluye que ambos aspectos han de ser fijados de manera diferente para los distintos regímenes orbitales. En el caso de LEO se hace necesario observar objetos de hasta 5cm de radio, mientras que en GEO se rebaja este requisito hasta los 100 cm para cubrir las colisiones catastróficas. La razón principal para esta diferencia viene de las diferentes velocidades relativas entre los objetos en ambos regímenes orbitales. En relación con la precisión orbital, ésta ha de ser muy buena en LEO para poder reducir el número de falsas alarmas, mientras que en regímenes orbitales más altos se pueden considerar precisiones medias. En relación con los aspectos operaciones de la determinación de riesgo de colisión, existen varios algoritmos de cálculo de riesgo entre dos objetos espaciales. La Figura 2 proporciona un resumen de los casos en cuanto a algoritmos de cálculo de riesgo de colisión y como se abordan en esta tesis. Normalmente se consideran objetos esféricos para simplificar el cálculo de riesgo (caso A). Este caso está ampliamente abordado en la literatura y no se analiza en detalle en esta tesis. Un caso de ejemplo se proporciona en la sección 4.2. Considerar la forma real de los objetos (caso B) permite calcular el riesgo de una manera más precisa. Un nuevo algoritmo es definido en esta tesis para calcular el riesgo de colisión cuando al menos uno de los objetos se considera complejo (sección 4.4.2). Dicho algoritmo permite calcular el riesgo de colisión para objetos formados por un conjunto de cajas, y se ha presentado en varias conferencias internacionales. Para evaluar las prestaciones de dicho algoritmo, sus resultados se han comparado con un análisis de Monte Carlo que se ha definido para considerar colisiones entre cajas de manera adecuada (sección 4.1.2.3), pues la búsqueda de colisiones simples aplicables para objetos esféricos no es aplicable a este caso. Este análisis de Monte Carlo se considera la verdad a la hora de calcular los resultados del algoritmos, dicha comparativa se presenta en la sección 4.4.4. En el caso de satélites que no se pueden considerar esféricos, el uso de un modelo de la geometría del satélite permite descartar eventos que no son colisiones reales o estimar con mayor precisión el riesgo asociado a un evento. El uso de estos algoritmos con geometrías complejas es más relevante para objetos de dimensiones grandes debido a las prestaciones de precisión orbital actuales. En el futuro, si los sistemas de vigilancia mejoran y las órbitas son conocidas con mayor precisión, la importancia de considerar la geometría real de los satélites será cada vez más relevante. La sección 5.4 presenta un ejemplo para un sistema de grandes dimensiones (satélite con un tether). Adicionalmente, si los dos objetos involucrados en la colisión tienen velocidad relativa baja (y geometría simple, Caso C en la Figura 2), la mayor parte de los algoritmos no son aplicables requiriendo implementaciones dedicadas para este caso particular. En esta tesis, uno de estos algoritmos presentado en la literatura [Patera, 2001]R.26 se ha analizado para determinar su idoneidad en distintos tipos de eventos (sección 4.5). La evaluación frete a un análisis de Monte Carlo se proporciona en la sección 4.5.2. Tras este análisis, se ha considerado adecuado para abordar las colisiones de baja velocidad. En particular, se ha concluido que el uso de algoritmos dedicados para baja velocidad son necesarios en función del tamaño del volumen de colisión proyectado en el plano de encuentro (B-plane) y del tamaño de la incertidumbre asociada al vector posición entre los dos objetos. Para incertidumbres grandes, estos algoritmos se hacen más necesarios pues la duración del intervalo en que los elipsoides de error de los dos objetos pueden intersecar es mayor. Dicho algoritmo se ha probado integrando el algoritmo de colisión para objetos con geometrías complejas. El resultado de dicho análisis muestra que este algoritmo puede ser extendido fácilmente para considerar diferentes tipos de algoritmos de cálculo de riesgo de colisión (sección 4.5.3). Ambos algoritmos, junto con el método Monte Carlo para geometrías complejas, se han implementado en la herramienta operacional de la ESA CORAM, que es utilizada para evaluar el riesgo de colisión en las actividades rutinarias de los satélites operados por ESA [Sánchez-Ortiz, 2013a]T.11. Este hecho muestra el interés y relevancia de los algoritmos desarrollados para la mejora de las operaciones de los satélites. Dichos algoritmos han sido presentados en varias conferencias internacionales [Sánchez-Ortiz, 2013b]T.9, [Pulido, 2014]T.7,[Grande-Olalla, 2013]T.10, [Pulido, 2014]T.5, [Sánchez-Ortiz, 2015c]T.1. ABSTRACT This document addresses methodologies for computation of the collision risk of a satellite. Two different approaches need to be considered for collision risk minimisation. On an operational basis, it is needed to perform a sieve of possible objects approaching the satellite, among all objects sharing the space with an operational satellite. As the orbits of both, satellite and the eventual collider, are not perfectly known but only estimated, the miss-encounter geometry and the actual risk of collision shall be evaluated. In the basis of the encounter geometry or the risk, an eventual manoeuvre may be required to avoid the conjunction. Those manoeuvres will be associated to a reduction in the fuel for the mission orbit maintenance, and thus, may reduce the satellite operational lifetime. Thus, avoidance manoeuvre fuel budget shall be estimated, at mission design phase, for a better estimation of mission lifetime, especially for those satellites orbiting in very populated orbital regimes. These two aspects, mission design and operational collision risk aspects, are summarised in Figure 3, and covered along this thesis. Bottom part of the figure identifies the aspects to be consider for the mission design phase (statistical characterisation of the space object population data and theory computing the mean number of events and risk reduction capability) which will define the most appropriate collision avoidance approach at mission operational phase. This part is covered in this work by starting from the theory described in [Sánchez-Ortiz, 2006]T.14 and implemented by this author in ARES tool [Sánchez-Ortiz, 2004b]T.15 provided by ESA for evaluation of collision avoidance approaches. This methodology has been now extended to account for the particular features of the available data sets in operational environment (section 4.3.3). Additionally, the formulation has been extended to allow evaluating risk computation approached when orbital uncertainty is not available (like the TLE case) and when only catastrophic collisions are subject to study (section 4.3.2.3). These improvements to the theory have been included in the new version of ESA ARES tool [Domínguez-González and Sánchez-Ortiz, 2012b]T.12 and available through [SDUP,2014]R.60. At the operation phase, the real catalogue data will be processed on a routine basis, with adequate collision risk computation algorithms to propose conjunction avoidance manoeuvre optimised for every event. The optimisation of manoeuvres in an operational basis is not approached along this document. Currently, American Two Line Element (TLE) catalogue is the only public source of data providing orbits of objects in space to identify eventual conjunction events. Additionally, Conjunction Summary Message (CSM) is provided by Joint Space Operation Center (JSpOC) when the American system identifies a possible collision among satellites and debris. Depending on the data used for collision avoidance evaluation, the conjunction avoidance approach may be different. The main features of currently available data need to be analysed (in regards to accuracy) in order to perform estimation of eventual encounters to be found along the mission lifetime. In the case of TLE, as these data is not provided with accuracy information, operational collision avoidance may be also based on statistical accuracy information as the one used in the mission design approach. This is not the case for CSM data, which includes the state vector and orbital accuracy of the two involved objects. This aspect has been analysed in detail and is depicted in the document, evaluating in statistical way the characteristics of both data sets in regards to the main aspects related to collision avoidance. Once the analysis of data set was completed, investigations on the impact of those features in the most convenient avoidance approaches have been addressed (section 5.1). This analysis is published in a peer-reviewed journal [Sánchez-Ortiz, 2015b]T.3. The analysis provides recommendations for different mission types (satellite size and orbital regime) in regards to the most appropriate collision avoidance approach for relevant risk reduction. The risk reduction capability is very much dependent on the accuracy of the catalogue utilized to identify eventual collisions. Approaches based on CSM data are recommended against the TLE based approach. Some approaches based on the maximum risk associated to envisaged encounters are demonstrated to report a very large number of events, which makes the approach not suitable for operational activities. Accepted Collision Probability Levels are recommended for the definition of the avoidance strategies for different mission types. For example for the case of a LEO satellite in the Sun-synchronous regime, the typically used ACPL value of 10-4 is not a suitable value for collision avoidance schemes based on TLE data. In this case the risk reduction capacity is almost null (due to the large uncertainties associated to TLE data sets, even for short time-to-event values). For significant reduction of risk when using TLE data, ACPL on the order of 10-6 (or lower) seems to be required, producing about 10 warnings per year and mission (if one-day ahead events are considered) or 100 warnings per year (for three-days ahead estimations). Thus, the main conclusion from these results is the lack of feasibility of TLE for a proper collision avoidance approach. On the contrary, for CSM data, and due to the better accuracy of the orbital information when compared with TLE, ACPL on the order of 10-4 allows to significantly reduce the risk. This is true for events estimated up to 3 days ahead. Even 5 days ahead events can be considered, but ACPL values down to 10-5 should be considered in such case. Even larger prediction times can be considered (7 days) for risk reduction about 90%, at the cost of larger number of warnings up to 5 events per year, when 5 days prediction allows to keep the manoeuvre rate in 2 manoeuvres per year. Dynamics of the GEO orbits is different to that in LEO, impacting on a lower increase of orbits uncertainty along time. On the contrary, uncertainties at short prediction times at this orbital regime are larger than those at LEO due to the differences in observation capabilities. Additionally, it has to be accounted that short prediction times feasible at LEO may not be appropriate for a GEO mission due to the orbital period being much larger at this regime. In the case of TLE data sets, significant reduction of risk is only achieved for small ACPL values, producing about a warning event per year if warnings are raised one day in advance to the event (too short for any reaction to be considered). Suitable ACPL values would lay in between 5•10-8 and 10-7, well below the normal values used in current operations for most of the GEO missions (TLE-based strategies for collision avoidance at this regime are not recommended). On the contrary, CSM data allows a good reduction of risk with ACPL in between 10-5 and 10-4 for short and medium prediction times. 10-5 is recommended for prediction times of five or seven days. The number of events raised for a suitable warning time of seven days would be about one in a 10-year mission. It must be noted, that these results are associated to a 2 m radius spacecraft, impact of the satellite size are also analysed within the thesis. In the future, other Space Situational Awareness Systems (SSA, ESA program) may provide additional catalogues of objects in space with the aim of reducing the risk. It is needed to investigate which are the required performances of those catalogues for allowing such risk reduction. The main performance aspects are coverage (objects included in the catalogue, mainly limited by a minimum object size derived from sensor performances) and the accuracy of the orbital data to accurately evaluate the conjunctions (derived from sensor performance in regards to object observation frequency and accuracy). The results of these investigations (section 5.2) are published in a peer-reviewed journal [Sánchez-Ortiz, 2015a]T.2. This aspect was not initially foreseen as objective of the thesis, but it shows how the theory described in the thesis, initially defined for mission design in regards to avoidance manoeuvre fuel allocation (upper part of figure 1), is extended and serves for additional purposes as dimensioning a Space Surveillance and Tracking (SST) system (bottom part of figure below). The main difference between the two approaches is the consideration of the catalogue features as part of the theory which are not modified (for the satellite mission design case) instead of being an input for the analysis (in the case of the SST design). In regards to the outputs, all the features computed by the statistical conjunction analysis are of importance for mission design (with the objective of proper global avoidance strategy definition and fuel allocation), whereas for the case of SST design, the most relevant aspects are the manoeuvre and false alarm rates (defining a reliable system) and the Risk Reduction capability (driving the effectiveness of the system). In regards to the methodology for computing the risk, the SST system shall be driven by the capacity of providing the means to avoid catastrophic conjunction events (avoiding the dramatic increase of the population), whereas the satellite mission design should consider all type of encounters, as the operator is interested on avoiding both lethal and catastrophic collisions. From the analysis of the SST features (object coverage and orbital uncertainty) for a reliable system, it is concluded that those two characteristics are to be imposed differently for the different orbital regimes, as the population level is different depending on the orbit type. Coverage values range from 5 cm for very populated LEO regime up to 100 cm in the case of GEO region. The difference on this requirement derives mainly from the relative velocity of the encounters at those regimes. Regarding the orbital knowledge of the catalogues, very accurate information is required for objects in the LEO region in order to limit the number of false alarms, whereas intermediate orbital accuracy can be considered for higher orbital regimes. In regards to the operational collision avoidance approaches, several collision risk algorithms are used for evaluation of collision risk of two pair of objects. Figure 2 provides a summary of the different collision risk algorithm cases and indicates how they are covered along this document. The typical case with high relative velocity is well covered in literature for the case of spherical objects (case A), with a large number of available algorithms, that are not analysed in detailed in this work. Only a sample case is provided in section 4.2. If complex geometries are considered (Case B), a more realistic risk evaluation can be computed. New approach for the evaluation of risk in the case of complex geometries is presented in this thesis (section 4.4.2), and it has been presented in several international conferences. The developed algorithm allows evaluating the risk for complex objects formed by a set of boxes. A dedicated Monte Carlo method has also been described (section 4.1.2.3) and implemented to allow the evaluation of the actual collisions among a large number of simulation shots. This Monte Carlo runs are considered the truth for comparison of the algorithm results (section 4.4.4). For spacecrafts that cannot be considered as spheres, the consideration of the real geometry of the objects may allow to discard events which are not real conjunctions, or estimate with larger reliability the risk associated to the event. This is of particular importance for the case of large spacecrafts as the uncertainty in positions of actual catalogues does not reach small values to make a difference for the case of objects below meter size. As the tracking systems improve and the orbits of catalogued objects are known more precisely, the importance of considering actual shapes of the objects will become more relevant. The particular case of a very large system (as a tethered satellite) is analysed in section 5.4. Additionally, if the two colliding objects have low relative velocity (and simple geometries, case C in figure above), the most common collision risk algorithms fail and adequate theories need to be applied. In this document, a low relative velocity algorithm presented in the literature [Patera, 2001]R.26 is described and evaluated (section 4.5). Evaluation through comparison with Monte Carlo approach is provided in section 4.5.2. The main conclusion of this analysis is the suitability of this algorithm for the most common encounter characteristics, and thus it is selected as adequate for collision risk estimation. Its performances are evaluated in order to characterise when it can be safely used for a large variety of encounter characteristics. In particular, it is found that the need of using dedicated algorithms depend on both the size of collision volume in the B-plane and the miss-distance uncertainty. For large uncertainties, the need of such algorithms is more relevant since for small uncertainties the encounter duration where the covariance ellipsoids intersect is smaller. Additionally, its application for the case of complex satellite geometries is assessed (case D in figure above) by integrating the developed algorithm in this thesis with Patera’s formulation for low relative velocity encounters. The results of this analysis show that the algorithm can be easily extended for collision risk estimation process suitable for complex geometry objects (section 4.5.3). The two algorithms, together with the Monte Carlo method, have been implemented in the operational tool CORAM for ESA which is used for the evaluation of collision risk of ESA operated missions, [Sánchez-Ortiz, 2013a]T.11. This fact shows the interest and relevance of the developed algorithms for improvement of satellite operations. The algorithms have been presented in several international conferences, [Sánchez-Ortiz, 2013b]T.9, [Pulido, 2014]T.7,[Grande-Olalla, 2013]T.10, [Pulido, 2014]T.5, [Sánchez-Ortiz, 2015c]T.1.

Top-down free-energy minimization on protein potential energy landscapes

The hierarchical properties of potential energy landscapes have been used to gain insight into thermodynamic and kinetic properties of protein ensembles. It also may be possible to use them to direct computational searches for thermodynamically stable macroscopic states, i.e., computational protein folding. To this end, we have developed a top-down search procedure in which conformation space is recursively dissected according to the intrinsic hierarchical structure of a landscape's effective-energy barriers. This procedure generates an inverted tree similar to the disconnectivity graphs generated by local minima-clustering methods, but it fundamentally differs in the manner in which the portion of the tree that is to be computationally explored is selected. A key ingredient is a branch-selection algorithm that takes advantage of statistically predictive properties of the landscape to guide searches down the tree branches that are most likely to lead to the physically relevant macroscopic states. Using the computational folding of a β-hairpin-forming peptide as an example, we show that such predictive properties indeed exist and can be used for structure prediction by free-energy global minimization.

A maximum likelihood algorithm for genome mapping of cytogenetic loci from meiotic configuration data.

Frequencies of meiotic configurations in cytogenetic stocks are dependent on chiasma frequencies in segments defined by centromeres, breakpoints, and telomeres. The expectation maximization algorithm is proposed as a general method to perform maximum likelihood estimations of the chiasma frequencies in the intervals between such locations. The estimates can be translated via mapping functions into genetic maps of cytogenetic landmarks. One set of observational data was analyzed to exemplify application of these methods, results of which were largely concordant with other comparable data. The method was also tested by Monte Carlo simulation of frequencies of meiotic configurations from a monotelodisomic translocation heterozygote, assuming six different sample sizes. The estimate averages were always close to the values given initially to the parameters. The maximum likelihood estimation procedures can be extended readily to other kinds of cytogenetic stocks and allow the pooling of diverse cytogenetic data to collectively estimate lengths of segments, arms, and chromosomes.

Aprendizagem de substantivos e adjetivos por meio de leitura compartilhada para crianças com desenvolvimento típico e com Síndrome de Down

A leitura compartilhada de livros para crianças é uma atividade que tem sido estudada como forma de ensino incidental de vocabulário, que envolve, dentre outros processos, o responder por exclusão. O objetivo do presente trabalho foi investigar a ocorrência de aprendizagem de relações entre estímulos visuais (figuras) com seus respectivos estímulos auditivos (palavras) a partir de diferentes condições de leitura compartilhada de livros para crianças com Síndrome de Down (SD) e com desenvolvimento típico (DT). Para a pesquisa foram desenvolvidos dois estudos. No Estudo 1, participaram seis crianças com SD com seis a sete anos, e seis crianças com DT com três a quatro anos (amostras pareadas em função do nível de vocabulário). Foi utilizado um livro de história produzido pela pesquisadora, no qual havia dois substantivos e dois adjetivos desconhecidos (estímulos visuais S1, S2, A1, A2), apresentados uma única vez na história. Esse livro foi lido para cada criança duas vezes em sequência por sessão e em cada sessão foi realizada uma condição de leitura diferente. Foram apresentadas três condições de leitura e cada criança passou por todas, mas em diferentes ordens (contrabalanceamento). Na Condição 1, o livro foi lido para a criança sem intervenções. Na Condição 2, o livro foi lido para a criança e ela tinha que repetir o nome dos estímulos desconhecidos. Na Condição 3, o livro foi lido e foram realizadas perguntas relacionadas aos estímulos-alvo. Ao final de cada sessão foram realizadas sondas de aprendizagem (sondas de emparelhamento ao modelo e nomeação), e após uma semana da última sessão foi aplicada uma sonda de manutenção e uma de generalização. As crianças com DT apresentaram maior número de acertos que as com SD, e os acertos foram mais relacionados ao estímulo S1. As crianças não aprenderam a relação nome-cor. A análise dos resultados sugeriu que o número de estímulos-alvo era excessivo e com apresentações insuficientes no livro. No Estudo 2 participaram seis crianças com DT de 3 a 4 anos e seis crianças com SD, de 5 a 8 anos. O procedimento utilizado no Estudo 2 foi semelhante ao primeiro com as seguintes alterações no livro: utilização de apenas duas relações-alvo (um substantivo-alvo e um adjetivo-alvo - S2 e A3), cada uma sendo apresentada três vezes ao longo da história, em figuras que possibilitavam o responder por exclusão. Também foi acrescentada uma tentativa de exclusão nas sondas de aprendizagem. Nesse estudo, todas as crianças com DT conseguiram selecionar e nomear estímulo S2 e duas mostraram indícios de aprendizagem do estímulo A3. As crianças com SD apresentaram um menor número de acertos nas sondas de emparelhamento, mas apresentaram algumas nomeações corretas, o que não foi observado no Estudo 1. Os dados sugerem que as mudanças realizadas no livro melhoram o desempenho das crianças com DT, mas não o das crianças com SD. Não foram encontradas diferenças entre as condições de leituras nos dois estudos. No entanto, são necessários estudos adicionais para avaliar essas diferentes condições e as variáveis envolvidas na aprendizagem de palavras a partir da leitura compartilhada de livro.

Tethered Monte Carlo: computing the effective potential without critical slowing down

We present Tethered Monte Carlo, a simple, general purpose method of computing the effective potential of the order parameter (Helmholtz free energy). This formalism is based on a new statistical ensemble, closely related to the micromagnetic one, but with an extended configuration space (through Creutz-like demons). Canonical averages for arbitrary values of the external magnetic field are computed without additional simulations. The method is put to work in the two-dimensional Ising model, where the existence of exact results enables us to perform high precision checks. A rather peculiar feature of our implementation, which employs a local Metropolis algorithm, is the total absence, within errors, of critical slowing down for magnetic observables. Indeed, high accuracy results are presented for lattices as large as L = 1024.

Tethered Monte Carlo: computing the effective potential without critical slowing down

We present Tethered Monte Carlo, a simple, general purpose method of computing the effective potential of the order parameter (Helmholtz free energy). This formalism is based on a new statistical ensemble, closely related to the micromagnetic one, but with an extended configuration space (through Creutz-like demons). Canonical averages for arbitrary values of the external magnetic field are computed without additional simulations. The method is put to work in the two-dimensional Ising model, where the existence of exact results enables us to perform high precision checks. A rather peculiar feature of our implementation, which employs a local Metropolis algorithm, is the total absence, within errors, of critical slowing down for magnetic observables. Indeed, high accuracy results are presented for lattices as large as L = 1024.

Design options for sample-based mortality surveillance

Background Reliable information on causes of death is a fundamental component of health development strategies, yet globally only about one-third of countries have access to such information. For countries currently without adequate mortality reporting systems there are useful models other than resource-intensive population-wide medical certification. Sample-based mortality surveillance is one such approach. This paper provides methods for addressing appropriate sample size considerations in relation to mortality surveillance, with particular reference to situations in which prior information on mortality is lacking. Methods The feasibility of model-based approaches for predicting the expected mortality structure and cause composition is demonstrated for populations in which only limited empirical data is available. An algorithm approach is then provided to derive the minimum person-years of observation needed to generate robust estimates for the rarest cause of interest in three hypothetical populations, each representing different levels of health development. Results Modelled life expectancies at birth and cause of death structures were within expected ranges based on published estimates for countries at comparable levels of health development. Total person-years of observation required in each population could be more than halved by limiting the set of age, sex, and cause groups regarded as 'of interest'. Discussion The methods proposed are consistent with the philosophy of establishing priorities across broad clusters of causes for which the public health response implications are similar. The examples provided illustrate the options available when considering the design of mortality surveillance for population health monitoring purposes.

Hormones down under: Hormone therapy use after the women's health initiative

Aims: The primary objective was to describe the usage pattern of hormone therapy (HT) in a sample of urban Australian women in 2001 and to assess the characteristics of users vs. non-users. The second objective was to determine whether there had been any change in usage since the publication of the results of the combined oestrogen plus progestagen arm of the Women's Health Initiative (WHI) in 2002. Methods: A cohort of 374 postmenopausal women aged 50-80 years participated in this substudy of the LAW (Longitudinal Assessment of Ageing in Women) project: a 5-year multidisciplinary, observational study. Participants completed an annual medical assessment including details of the use of HT and the reasons for use, as well as demographic and psychosocial data. Results: In December 2001, 30.8% of the participants were using HT, whereas 55.4% were ever users. The management of vasomotor symptoms and mood disturbance were the primary reasons for use. Of those who had been using HT in December 2001 (24.4%) women ceased using HT in the 3 months following publication of the WHI results. The percentage of women using HT in December 2003 (13.9%) was less than half of that of December 2001. Conclusion: The rate of HT use and the reasons for use, in 2001 in Brisbane was similar to that of other Australian regions. Usage of HT decreased since the publication of the WHI results in 2002 which may reflect changing attitudes by patients and practitioners regarding HT.

Face recognition robust to head pose from one sample image

Most face recognition systems only work well under quite constrained environments. In particular, the illumination conditions, facial expressions and head pose must be tightly controlled for good recognition performance. In 2004, we proposed a new face recognition algorithm, Adaptive Principal Component Analysis (APCA) [4], which performs well against both lighting variation and expression change. But like other eigenface-derived face recognition algorithms, APCA only performs well with frontal face images. The work presented in this paper is an extension of our previous work to also accommodate variations in head pose. Following the approach of Cootes et al, we develop a face model and a rotation model which can be used to interpret facial features and synthesize realistic frontal face images when given a single novel face image. We use a Viola-Jones based face detector to detect the face in real-time and thus solve the initialization problem for our Active Appearance Model search. Experiments show that our approach can achieve good recognition rates on face images across a wide range of head poses. Indeed recognition rates are improved by up to a factor of 5 compared to standard PCA.