Exercise sheet 5

Exercises and solutions in LaTex

Aplicación de colas de Poisson en procesos de ‘toma de decisiones’ en la gestión de servicios médicos

En este documento se revisa teóricamente la distribución de probabilidad de Poisson como función que asigna a cada suceso definido, sobre una variable aleatoria discreta, la probabilidad de ocurrencia en un intervalo de tiempo o región del espacio disjunto. Adicionalmente se revisa la distribución exponencial negativa empleada para modelar el intervalo de tiempo entre eventos consecutivos de Poisson que ocurren de manera independiente; es decir, en los cuales la probabilidad de ocurrencia de los eventos sucedidos en un intervalo de tiempo no depende de los ocurridos en otros intervalos de tiempo, por esta razón se afirma que es una distribución que no tiene memoria. El proceso de Poisson relaciona la función de Poisson, que representa un conjunto de eventos independientes sucedidos en un intervalo de tiempo o región del espacio con los tiempos dados entre la ocurrencia de los eventos según la distribución exponencial negativa. Los anteriores conceptos se usan en la teoría de colas, rama de la investigación de operaciones que describe y brinda soluciones a situaciones en las que un conjunto de individuos o elementos forman colas en espera de que se les preste un servicio, por lo cual se presentan ejemplos de aplicación en el ámbito médico.

Dynamics of potassium leaching on a hillslope grassland soil

There have been only a few studies of potassium (K) losses from grassland systems, and little is known about their dynamics, especially in relation to nitrogen (N) management. A study was performed during the autumn and winter of 1999 and 2000 to understand the effects of N and drainage on the dynamics of K leaching on a hillslope grassland soil in southwestern England. Two N application rates were studied (0 and 280 kg N ha(-1) yr(-1)), both with and without the drainage. Treatments receiving N also received farmyard manure (FM). Higher total K losses and K concentrations in the leachates were found in the N + FM treatments (150 and 185% higher than in 0 N treatments), which were related to K additions in the FM. Drainage reduced K losses by 35% because of an increase in dry matter production and a reduction in overland and preferential flow. The pattern of change in K concentration in the leachates was associated with preferential flow at the beginning of the drainage season and with matrix flow later in winter, and was best described by a double exponential curve. Rainfall intensity and the autumn application of FM were the main determinants of K losses by leaching. The study provided new insights into the relationships between soil hydrology, rainfall, and K leaching and its implications for grassland systems.

The structure of paranoia in the general population

Background: Psychotic phenomena appear to form a continuum with normal experience and beliefs, and may build on common emotional interpersonal concerns. Aims: We tested predictions that paranoid ideation is exponentially distributed and hierarchically arranged in the general population, and that persecutory ideas build on more common cognitions of mistrust, interpersonal sensitivity and ideas of reference. Method: Items were chosen from the Structured Clinical Interview for DSM-IV Axis II Disorders (SCID-II) questionnaire and the Psychosis Screening Questionnaire in the second British National Survey of Psychiatric Morbidity (n = 8580), to test a putative hierarchy of paranoid development using confirmatory factor analysis, latent class analysis and factor mixture modelling analysis. Results: Different types of paranoid ideation ranged in frequency from less than 2% to nearly 30%. Total scores on these items followed an almost perfect exponential distribution (r = 0.99). Our four a priori first-order factors were corroborated (interpersonal sensitivity; mistrust; ideas of reference; ideas of persecution). These mapped onto four classes of individual respondents: a rare, severe, persecutory class with high endorsement of all item factors, including persecutory ideation; a quasi-normal class with infrequent endorsement of interpersonal sensitivity, mistrust and ideas of reference, and no ideas of persecution; and two intermediate classes, characterised respectively by relatively high endorsement of items relating to mistrust and to ideas of reference. Conclusions: The paranoia continuum has implications for the aetiology, mechanisms and treatment of psychotic disorders, while confirming the lack of a clear distinction from normal experiences and processes.

A flexible model for survival data with a cure rate: a Bayesian approach

In this paper we deal with a Bayesian analysis for right-censored survival data suitable for populations with a cure rate. We consider a cure rate model based on the negative binomial distribution, encompassing as a special case the promotion time cure model. Bayesian analysis is based on Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods. We also present some discussion on model selection and an illustration with a real dataset.

On the release of metronidazole from natural rubber latex membranes

The controlled release of drugs can be efficient if a suitable encapsulation procedure is developed, which requires biocompatible materials to hold and release the drug. In this study, a natural rubber latex (NRL) membrane is used to deliver metronidazole (MET), a powerful antiprotozoal agent. MET was found to be adsorbed on the NRL membrane, with little or no incorporation into the membrane bulk, according to energy dispersive X-ray spectroscopy. X-ray diffraction and FTIR spectroscopy data indicated that MET retained its structural and spectroscopic properties upon encapsulation in the NRL membrane, with no molecular-level interaction that could alter the antibacterial activity of MET. More importantly, the release time of MET in a NRL membrane in vitro was increased from the typical 6-8 h for oral tablets or injections to ca. 100 h. The kinetics of the drug release could be fitted with a double exponential function, with two characteristic times of 3.6 and 29.9 h. This is a demonstration that the induced angiogenesis known to be provided by NRL membranes can be combined with a controlled release of drugs, whose kinetics can be tailored by modifying experimental conditions of membrane fabrication for specific applications. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

On exact time averages of a massive Poisson particle

In this work we study, under the Stratonovich definition, the problem of the damped oscillatory massive particle subject to a heterogeneous Poisson noise characterized by a rate of events, lambda(t), and a magnitude, Phi, following an exponential distribution. We tackle the problem by performing exact time averages over the noise in a similar way to previous works analysing the problem of the Brownian particle. From this procedure we obtain the long-term equilibrium distributions of position and velocity as well as analytical asymptotic expressions for the injection and dissipation of energy terms. Considerations on the emergence of stochastic resonance in this type of system are also set forth.

A semi-Markov multistate model for estimation of the mean quality-adjusted survival for non-progressive processes

We discuss the estimation of the expected value of the quality-adjusted survival, based on multistate models. We generalize an earlier work, considering the sojourn times in health states are not identically distributed, for a given vector of covariates. Approaches based on semiparametric and parametric (exponential and Weibull distributions) methodologies are considered. A simulation study is conducted to evaluate the performance of the proposed estimator and the jackknife resampling method is used to estimate the variance of such estimator. An application to a real data set is also included.

Estimation of the mean quality-adjusted survival using a multistate model for the sojourn times

In clinical trials, it may be of interest taking into account physical and emotional well-being in addition to survival when comparing treatments. Quality-adjusted survival time has the advantage of incorporating information about both survival time and quality-of-life. In this paper, we discuss the estimation of the expected value of the quality-adjusted survival, based on multistate models for the sojourn times in health states. Semiparametric and parametric (with exponential distribution) approaches are considered. A simulation study is presented to evaluate the performance of the proposed estimator and the jackknife resampling method is used to compute bias and variance of the estimator. (C) 2007 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Picosecond Dynamics of Proton Transfer of a 7-Hydroxyflavylium Salt in Aqueous-Organic Solvent Mixtures

The intermediacy of the geminate base proton pair (A*center dot center dot center dot H(+)) in excited-state proton-transfer (ESPT) reactions (two-step mechanism) has been investigated employing the synthetic flavylium salt 7-hydroxy-4-methyl-flavylium chloride (HMF). In aqueous solution, the ESPT mechanism involves solely the excited acid AH* and base A* forms of HMF as indicated by the fluorescence spectra and double-exponential fluorescence decays (two species, two decay times). However, upon addition of either 1,4-dioxane or 1,2-propylene glycol, the decays become triple-exponential with a term consistent with the presence of the geminate base proton pair A*center dot center dot center dot H(+). The geminate pair becomes detectable because of the increase in the recombination rate constant, k(rec), of (A*center dot center dot center dot H(+)) with increasing the mole fraction of added organic cosolvent. Because the two-step ESPT mechanism splits the intrinsic prototropic reaction rates (deprotonation of AH(+)*, k(d), and recombination, k(rec) of A*center dot center dot center dot H(+)) from the diffusion controlled rates (dissociation, k(diss) and formation, k(diff)[H(+)], of A*center dot center dot center dot H+), the experimental detection of the geminate pair provides a wealth of information on the proton-transfer reaction (k(d) and k(rec)) as well as on proton diffusion/migration (k(diss) and k(diff)).

Dinâmica da água no solo em cultivos de milho sob plantio direto e preparo convencional

A dinâmica da água em sistema de plantio direto (PD) é alterada em relação ao preparo convencional (PC) devido a modificações na estrutura do solo e a presença de palha na superfície. Para avaliar estas diferenças foram conduzidos experimentos de campo, em 2001/02 e 2002/03, em Eldorado do Sul, RS. O objetivo geral foi quantificar alterações físico-hídricas no perfil e na superfície do solo em PD e PC, com ênfase na dinâmica da água e respostas das plantas de milho. Os sistemas de manejo do solo foram implantados na área em 1995. Foram avaliadas propriedades físicas, a movimentação e a armazenagem de água no solo. Mediu-se a infiltração e a capacidade de campo e monitorou-se a dinâmica da água durante o ciclo da cultura, enfocando a secagem do solo e a extração de água em períodos sem precipitação. Nestes períodos também foi determinada a evaporação da água na superfície e avaliadas respostas das plantas. Os efeitos do plantio direto se evidenciaram nas camadas de solo próximas à superfície. A mesoporosidade foi a propriedade física mais afetada, apresentando uma distribuição exponencial de mesoporos no plantio direto, enquanto no preparo convencional a mesma se aproximou de uma curva normal. Em geral, a condutividade hidráulica, a retenção e a disponibilidade de água foram mais elevadas em plantio direto, principalmente, próximo à superfície. O solo em PD também apresentou maior umidade volumétrica com menor energia de retenção, resultando em redução no avanço da frente de secagem do solo e extração de água. A evaporação também foi maior em PD, demonstrando que a maior umidade no solo em plantio direto se deve ao aumento na capacidade de armazenagem de água. O aprofundamento radicular foi sempre maior no preparo convencional. O plantio direto altera propriedades físicas ligadas à dinâmica da água, proporcionando maior disponibilidade hídrica no solo ao longo do tempo.

Avaliação do desempenho de uma cortina de estacas espaçadas, atirantada, em areia

It is presented the analysis of a retaining wall designed for the basement of a residential building, located in Natal/RN, which consists in a spaced pile wall, anchored by tiebacks, in sand. This structure was instrumented in order to measure the wall s horizontal movements and the load distribution throughout the anchor fixed length. The horizontal movements were measured with an inclinometer, and the loads in the anchors were measured with strain gages, installed in three places throughout the anchor fixed length. Measurements for displacement were done right after the implementation of each stage of the building and right after the conclusion of the building, and the measurements for loads in the anchors were done during the performance test, at the moment of the locking off and, also, right after the conclusion of the building. From the data of displacement were obtained velocity and acceleration data of wall. It was found that the time elapsed on braced installation was decisive in the magnitude of the displacements. The maximum horizontal displacement of wall ranged between 0,18 and 0,66% of the final depth of excavation. The loads in the anchors strongly reduced to approximately half the anchor fixed length, followed an exponential distribution. Furthermore, it was found that there was a loss of load in the anchors over time, reaching 50% loss in one of them

Adsorção do corante amarelo reativo BF-4G 200% por argila esmectita

This study aimed to evaluate the potential use of smectite clays for color removal of textile effluents. The experiments were performed by testing exploratory/planning method factorial and fractional factorial where the factors and levels are predetermined. The smectite clays were used originating from gypsum hub of the region Araripe-PE, and the dye used was Reactive Yellow BF-4G 200%. The smectite clay was collected and transported to the Laboratory of Soil Physics of UFRPE, where it held its preparation through air drying, lump breaking and classification in sieve to then submit it to the adsorption process. Upon completion of 22 complete factorial design it was concluded that the values of (96, 96,5 and 95,8%) corresponding to the percentage of of removal for "in-kind", chemically and thermally activated, respectively and adsorbed amounts of (4,80, 4,61 and 4,74 mg/g) for three clays. Showed that the activation processes used did not increase the adsorption capacity of smectite clay. The kinetic data were best fitted to the Freundlich isotherm, with an exponential distribution of active sites and that shows above the Langmuir equation for adsorption of cations and anions by clays. The kinetic model that best adapted to the results was the pseudosecond order model. In the factorial design study 24-1, at concentrations up to 500 mg/L obtains high percentage of color removal (92,37, 90,92 and 93,40%) and adsorbed amount (230,94, 227,31 and 233,50 mg/g) for three clays. The kinetic data fitted well to Langmuir and Freundlich isotherms. The kinetic model that best adapted to the results was the pseudosecond order model

On the release of metronidazole from natural rubber latex membranes

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Modelos de sobrevivência com fração de cura e erro de medida nas covariáveis

In this work, we study the survival cure rate model proposed by Yakovlev et al. (1993), based on a competing risks structure concurring to cause the event of interest, and the approach proposed by Chen et al. (1999), where covariates are introduced to model the risk amount. We focus the measurement error covariates topics, considering the use of corrected score method in order to obtain consistent estimators. A simulation study is done to evaluate the behavior of the estimators obtained by this method for finite samples. The simulation aims to identify not only the impact on the regression coefficients of the covariates measured with error (Mizoi et al. 2007) but also on the coefficients of covariates measured without error. We also verify the adequacy of the piecewise exponential distribution to the cure rate model with measurement error. At the end, model applications involving real data are made