Measured daily precipitation sums over Central Sulawesi for the period 1981-1999

Data compiled within the IMPENSO project. The Impact of ENSO on Sustainable Water Management and the Decision-Making Community at a Rainforest Margin in Indonesia (IMPENSO), http://www.gwdg.de/~impenso, was a German-Indonesian research project (2003-2007) that has studied the impact of ENSO (El Nino-Southern Oscillation) on the water resources and the agricultural production in the PALU RIVER watershed in Central Sulawesi. ENSO is a climate variability that causes serious droughts in Indonesia and other countries of South-East Asia. The last ENSO event occurred in 1997. As in other regions, many farmers in Central Sulawesi suffered from reduced crop yields and lost their livestock. A better prediction of ENSO and the development of coping strategies would help local communities mitigate the impact of ENSO on rural livelihoods and food security. The IMPENSO project deals with the impact of the climate variability ENSO (El Niño Southern Oscillation) on water resource management and the local communities in the Palu River watershed of Central Sulawesi, Indonesia. The project consists of three interrelated sub-projects, which study the local and regional manifestation of ENSO using the Regional Climate Models REMO and GESIMA (Sub-project A), quantify the impact of ENSO on the availability of water for agriculture and other uses, using the distributed hydrological model WaSiM-ETH (Sub-project B), and analyze the socio-economic impact and the policy implications of ENSO on the basis of a production function analysis, a household vulnerability analysis, and a linear programming model (Sub-project C). The models used in the three sub-projects will be integrated to simulate joint scenarios that are defined in collaboration with local stakeholders and are relevant for the design of coping strategies.

Complex Vertical FDI and Firm Heterogeneity: Evidence from East Asia

In this paper we statistically test the validity of the mechanics of complex VFDI in Japanese machinery FDI to East Asia; we do this by estimating a multiple-spatial lag model. From the theoretical point of view, in complex VFDI, the production activity of affiliates in a given country is positively related to that in neighboring countries which have large differences in factor prices with the given country. Our empirical results show that such mechanics of complex VFDI work in Japanese FDI to East Asia, and that they work more strongly in the MNEs with higher productivity. These results have an important implication for the policies of developing countries in attracting FDI.

Improving runoff estimates from regional climate models: a performance analysis in Spain

An important step to assess water availability is to have monthly time series representative of the current situation. In this context, a simple methodology is presented for application in large-scale studies in regions where a properly calibrated hydrologic model is not available, using the output variables simulated by regional climate models (RCMs) of the European project PRUDENCE under current climate conditions (period 1961–1990). The methodology compares different interpolation methods and alternatives to generate annual times series that minimise the bias with respect to observed values. The objective is to identify the best alternative to obtain bias-corrected, monthly runoff time series from the output of RCM simulations. This study uses information from 338 basins in Spain that cover the entire mainland territory and whose observed values of natural runoff have been estimated by the distributed hydrological model SIMPA. Four interpolation methods for downscaling runoff to the basin scale from 10 RCMs are compared with emphasis on the ability of each method to reproduce the observed behaviour of this variable. The alternatives consider the use of the direct runoff of the RCMs and the mean annual runoff calculated using five functional forms of the aridity index, defined as the ratio between potential evapotranspiration and precipitation. In addition, the comparison with respect to the global runoff reference of the UNH/GRDC dataset is evaluated, as a contrast of the “best estimator” of current runoff on a large scale. Results show that the bias is minimised using the direct original interpolation method and the best alternative for bias correction of the monthly direct runoff time series of RCMs is the UNH/GRDC dataset, although the formula proposed by Schreiber (1904) also gives good results

Triple-junction solar cell performance under Fresnel-based concentrators taking into account chromatic aberration and off-axis operation

Concentration photovoltaic (CPV) systems might produce quite uneven irradiance distributions (both on their level and on their spectral distribution) on the solar cell. This effect can be even more evident when the CPV system is slightly off-axis, since they are often designed to assure good uniformity only at normal incidence. The non-uniformities both in absolute irradiance and spectral content produced by the CPV systems, can originate electrical losses in multi-junction solar cells (MJSC). This works is focused on the integration of ray-tracing methods for simulating the irradiance and spectrum maps produced by different optic systems throughout the solar cell surface, with a 3D fully distributed circuit model which simulates the electrical behavior of a state-of-the-art triple-junction solar cell under the different light distributions obtained with ray-tracing. In this study four different CPV system (SILO, XTP, RTP, and FK) comprising Fresnel lenses concentrating sunlight onto the same solar cell are modeled when working on-axis and 0.6 degrees off-axis. In this study the impact of non-uniformities on a CPV system behavior is revealed. The FK outperforms other Fresnel-based CPV systems in both on-axis and off-axis conditions.

Structural challenges in multijunction solar cells for ultra-high CPV

The paths towards high efficiency multijunction solar cells operating inside real concentrators at ultra high concentration (>1000 suns) are described. The key addressed factors comprehend: 1) the development of an optimized tunnel junction with a high peak current density (240 A/cm2) to mitigate the non-uniform light profiles created by concentrators, 2) the inclusion of highly conductive semiconductor lateral layers to minimize the effects of the non-uniform light profiles in general, and the chromatic aberration in particular; and 3) an adequate design of reliability studies to test multijunction solar cells for real operation conditions in order to determine the fragile parts in the device and improve them. These challenges are faced by means of experimental and theoretical investigation using a quasi-3D distributed circuital model.

Experimental confirmation of FK concentrator insensitivity to chromatic aberrations

The FK concentrator has demonstrated during the last years that compares very well with other Fresnel-based concentrator optics for CPV. There are several features that provide the FK high performance: (1) high optical efficiency; (2) large tolerance to tracking misalignment and manufacturing errors, thanks to a high CAP (Concentration-Acceptance Product); (3) good irradiance uniformity and low chromatic dispersion on the cell surface. Non-uniformities in terms of absolute irradiance and spectral content produced by conventional CPV systems can originate electrical losses in multi-junction (MJ) solar cells. The aim of this work is to analyze the influence of these non-uniformities in the FK concentrator performance and how FK concentrator provides high electrical efficiencies thanks to its insensitivity to chromatic aberrations, especially when components move away from the module nominal position due to manufacturing misalignments. This analysis has been done here by means of both, experimental on-sun measurements and simulations based on 3D fully distributed circuit model for MJ cells.

Computación celular con membranas: un estudio de modelos de cómputo bioinspirados

Los resultados presentados en la memoria de esta tesis doctoral se enmarcan en la denominada computación celular con membranas una nueva rama de investigación dentro de la computación natural creada por Gh. Paun en 1998, de ahí que habitualmente reciba el nombre de sistemas P. Este nuevo modelo de cómputo distribuido está inspirado en la estructura y funcionamiento de la célula. El objetivo de esta tesis ha sido analizar el poder y la eficiencia computacional de estos sistemas de computación celular. En concreto, se han analizado dos tipos de sistemas P: por un lado los sistemas P de neuronas de impulsos, y por otro los sistemas P con proteínas en las membranas. Para el primer tipo, los resultados obtenidos demuestran que es posible que estos sistemas mantengan su universalidad aunque muchas de sus características se limiten o incluso se eliminen. Para el segundo tipo, se analiza la eficiencia computacional y se demuestra que son capaces de resolver problemas de la clase de complejidad ESPACIO-P (PSPACE) en tiempo polinómico. Análisis del poder computacional: Los sistemas P de neuronas de impulsos (en adelante SN P, acrónimo procedente del inglés «Spiking Neural P Systems») son sistemas inspirados en el funcionamiento neuronal y en la forma en la que los impulsos se propagan por las redes sinápticas. Los SN P bio-inpirados poseen un numeroso abanico de características que ha cen que dichos sistemas sean universales y por tanto equivalentes, en poder computacional, a una máquina de Turing. Estos sistemas son potentes a nivel computacional, pero tal y como se definen incorporan numerosas características, quizás demasiadas. En (Ibarra et al. 2007) se demostró que en estos sistemas sus funcionalidades podrían ser limitadas sin comprometer su universalidad. Los resultados presentados en esta memoria son continuistas con la línea de trabajo de (Ibarra et al. 2007) y aportan nuevas formas normales. Esto es, nuevas variantes simplificadas de los sistemas SN P con un conjunto mínimo de funcionalidades pero que mantienen su poder computacional universal. Análisis de la eficiencia computacional: En esta tesis se ha estudiado la eficiencia computacional de los denominados sistemas P con proteínas en las membranas. Se muestra que este modelo de cómputo es equivalente a las máquinas de acceso aleatorio paralelas (PRAM) o a las máquinas de Turing alterantes ya que se demuestra que un sistema P con proteínas, es capaz de resolver un problema ESPACIOP-Completo como el QSAT(problema de satisfacibilidad de fórmulas lógicas cuantificado) en tiempo polinómico. Esta variante de sistemas P con proteínas es muy eficiente gracias al poder de las proteínas a la hora de catalizar los procesos de comunicación intercelulares. ABSTRACT The results presented at this thesis belong to membrane computing a new research branch inside of Natural computing. This new branch was created by Gh. Paun on 1998, hence usually receives the name of P Systems. This new distributed computing model is inspired on structure and functioning of cell. The aim of this thesis is to analyze the efficiency and computational power of these computational cellular systems. Specifically there have been analyzed two different classes of P systems. On the one hand it has been analyzed the Neural Spiking P Systems, and on the other hand it has been analyzed the P systems with proteins on membranes. For the first class it is shown that it is possible to reduce or restrict the characteristics of these kind of systems without loss of computational power. For the second class it is analyzed the computational efficiency solving on polynomial time PSACE problems. Computational Power Analysis: The spiking neural P systems (SN P in short) are systems inspired by the way of neural cells operate sending spikes through the synaptic networks. The bio-inspired SN Ps possess a large range of features that make these systems to be universal and therefore equivalent in computational power to a Turing machine. Such systems are computationally powerful, but by definition they incorporate a lot of features, perhaps too much. In (Ibarra et al. in 2007) it was shown that their functionality may be limited without compromising its universality. The results presented herein continue the (Ibarra et al. 2007) line of work providing new formal forms. That is, new SN P simplified variants with a minimum set of functionalities but keeping the universal computational power. Computational Efficiency Analisys: In this thesis we study the computational efficiency of P systems with proteins on membranes. We show that this computational model is equivalent to parallel random access machine (PRAM) or alternating Turing machine because, we show P Systems with proteins can solve a PSPACE-Complete problem as QSAT (Quantified Propositional Satisfiability Problem) on polynomial time. This variant of P Systems with proteins is very efficient thanks to computational power of proteins to catalyze inter-cellular communication processes.

Relação espacial dos óbitos e internações por tuberculose com indicadores sociais em Ribeirão Preto (SP)

Objetivo: Propôs-se analisar a relação espacial dos óbitos e internações evitáveis por TB com indicadores sociais em Ribeirão Preto/SP. Métodos: Trata-se de um estudo ecológico em que foram considerados os casos de óbitos e internações, tendo como causa básica do óbito e motivo principal da internação, a tuberculose (CID A15.0 a A19.9), ocorridos na zona urbana de Ribeirão Preto e registrados respectivamente no Sistema de Informação sobre Mortalidade e no Sistema de Internação Hospitalar do Sistema Único de Saúde no período de 2006 a 2012. Foi realizada a análise univariada das variáveis sociodemográficas e operacionais dos casos investigados. Para construção dos indicadores sociais utilizou-se a análise de componentes principais, sendo selecionados dados das áreas de abrangência do município, considerando os dados do Censo Demográfico de 2010. A geocodificação dos casos foi processada no TerraView versão 4.2.2. Recorreu-se à regressão linear múltipla, pelo método dos mínimos quadrados e à regressão espacial para análise da relação de dependência espacial entre os indicadores sociais e as taxas de mortalidade e de internações por TB. A autocorrelação nos resíduos da regressão linear múltipla foi testada por meio do Teste Global de Moran, as análises foram realizadas considerando os softwares Arcgis-versão 10.1, Statistica versão 12.0, OpenGeoDa versão 1.0 e R versão 3.2.3. Para o diagnóstico do melhor modelo de regressão espacial, utilizou-se o teste Multiplicador de Lagrange. Em todos os testes, foi fixado o nivel de significancia de alfa em 5% (p< 0,05). Resultados: Foram registrados 50 casos de óbitos e 196 casos de internações por TB. A maioria dos casos registrados em ambos os sistemas se deu em pessoas do sexo masculino (n=41; 82%/n=146; 74,5%) e com a forma clínica pulmonar (n=44; 80,0%/n=138; 67,9%). Na construção dos indicadores sociais, três novas variáveis surgiram, apresentando respectivamente variância total de 46,2%, 18,7% e 14,6% sendo denominadas como indicadores de renda, desigualdade social e equidade social. Na modelagem para verificar relação espacial entre os óbitos e os indicadores sociais observou-se que a equidade social foi indicador estatisticamente significativo (p=0,0013) com relação negativa a mortalidade, sendo o Modelo da Defasagem Espacial o melhor método para testar a dependência espacial, com valor de ? (rho) estimado em 0,53 e altamente significativo (p=0,0014). Já na modelagem da relação espacial entre as internações por tuberculose e os indicadores sociais, o indicador de renda apresentou-se estatisticamente significativo (p=0,015) com relação negativa a internação e o melhor método para testar a dependência espacial também foi o Modelo da Defasagem Espacial com valor de ? (rho) estimado em 0,80 e altamente significativo (p<0,0001). Conclusão: O estudo contribuiu no avanço do conhecimento de que a mortalidade e as internações por tuberculose são eventos socialmente determinados, o que sugere investimento por parte da gestão

The effect of extreme cold temperatures on the risk of death in the two major Portuguese cities

It is well known that meteorological conditions influence the comfort and human health. Southern European countries, including Portugal, show the highest mortality rates during winter, but the effects of extreme cold temperatures in Portugal have never been estimated. The objective of this study was the estimation of the effect of extreme cold temperatures on the risk of death in Lisbon and Oporto, aiming the production of scientific evidence for the development of a real-time health warning system. Poisson regression models combined with distributed lag non-linear models were applied to assess the exposure-response relation and lag patterns of the association between minimum temperature and all-causes mortality and between minimum temperature and circulatory and respiratory system diseases mortality from 1992 to 2012, stratified by age, for the period from November to March. The analysis was adjusted for over dispersion and population size, for the confounding effect of influenza epidemics and controlled for long-term trend, seasonality and day of the week. Results showed that the effect of cold temperatures in mortality was not immediate, presenting a 1–2-day delay, reaching maximumincreased risk of death after 6–7 days and lasting up to 20–28 days. The overall effect was generally higher and more persistent in Lisbon than in Oporto, particularly for circulatory and respiratory mortality and for the elderly. Exposure to cold temperatures is an important public health problem for a relevant part of the Portuguese population, in particular in Lisbon.

Robust multivariable control of complex biological processes

This paper addresses advanced control of a biological nutrient removal (BNR) activated sludge process. Based on a previously validated distributed parameter model of the BNR activated sludge process, we present robust multivariable controller designs for the process, involving loop shaping of plant model, robust stability and performance analyses. Results from three design case studies showed that a multivariable controller with stability margins of 0.163, 0.492 and 1.062 measured by the normalised coprime factor, multiplicative and additive uncertainties respectively give the best results for meeting performance robustness specifications. The controller robustly stabilises effluent nutrients in the presence of uncertainties with the behaviour of phosphorus accumulating organisms as well as to effectively attenuate major disturbances introduced as step changes. This study also shows that, performance of the multivariable robust controller is superior to multi-loops SISO PI controllers for regulating the BNR activated sludge process in terms of robust stability and performance and controlling the process using inlet feed flowrate is infeasible. (C) 2003 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Predicting returns in U.S. financial sector indices

This study focuses on: (i) the responsiveness of the U.S. financial sector stock indices to foreign exchange (FX) and interest rate changes; and, (ii) the extent to which good model specification can enhance the forecasts from the associated models. Three models are considered. Only the error-correction model (ECM) generated efficient and consistent coefficient estimates. Furthermore, a simple zero lag model in differences which is clearly mis-specified, generated forecasts that are better than those of the ECM, even if the ECM depicts relationships that are more consistent with economic theory. In brief, FX and interest rate changes do not impact on the return-generating process of the stock indices in any substantial way. Most of the variation in the sector stock indices is associated with past variation in the indices themselves and variation in the market-wide stock index. These results have important implications for financial and economic policies.

Mathematical modelling and optimal multivariable control of chemical processes

This work reports the developnent of a mathenatical model and distributed, multi variable computer-control for a pilot plant double-effect climbing-film evaporator. A distributed-parameter model of the plant has been developed and the time-domain model transformed into the Laplace domain. The model has been further transformed into an integral domain conforming to an algebraic ring of polynomials, to eliminate the transcendental terms which arise in the Laplace domain due to the distributed nature of the plant model. This has made possible the application of linear control theories to a set of linear-partial differential equations. The models obtained have well tracked the experimental results of the plant. A distributed-computer network has been interfaced with the plant to implement digital controllers in a hierarchical structure. A modern rnultivariable Wiener-Hopf controller has been applled to the plant model. The application has revealed a limitation condition that the plant matrix should be positive-definite along the infinite frequency axis. A new multi variable control theory has emerged fram this study, which avoids the above limitation. The controller has the structure of the modern Wiener-Hopf controller, but with a unique feature enabling a designer to specify the closed-loop poles in advance and to shape the sensitivity matrix as required. In this way, the method treats directly the interaction problems found in the chemical processes with good tracking and regulation performances. Though the ability of the analytical design methods to determine once and for all whether a given set of specifications can be met is one of its chief advantages over the conventional trial-and-error design procedures. However, one disadvantage that offsets to some degree the enormous advantages is the relatively complicated algebra that must be employed in working out all but the simplest problem. Mathematical algorithms and computer software have been developed to treat some of the mathematical operations defined over the integral domain, such as matrix fraction description, spectral factorization, the Bezout identity, and the general manipulation of polynomial matrices. Hence, the design problems of Wiener-Hopf type of controllers and other similar algebraic design methods can be easily solved.

Static Analysis of Usefulness States in Transition P Systems

Transition P Systems are a parallel and distributed computational model based on the notion of the cellular membrane structure. Each membrane determines a region that encloses a multiset of objects and evolution rules. Transition P Systems evolve through transitions between two consecutive configurations that are determined by the membrane structure and multisets present inside membranes. Moreover, transitions between two consecutive configurations are provided by an exhaustive non-deterministic and parallel application of evolution rules. But, to establish the rules to be applied, it is required the previous calculation of useful, applicable and active rules. Hence, computation of useful evolution rules is critical for the whole evolution process efficiency, because it is performed in parallel inside each membrane in every evolution step. This work defines usefulness states through an exhaustive analysis of the P system for every membrane and for every possible configuration of the membrane structure during the computation. Moreover, this analysis can be done in a static way; therefore membranes only have to check their usefulness states to obtain their set of useful rules during execution.

Decision Trees for Applicability of Evolution Rules in Transition P Systems

Transition P Systems are a parallel and distributed computational model based on the notion of the cellular membrane structure. Each membrane determines a region that encloses a multiset of objects and evolution rules. Transition P Systems evolve through transitions between two consecutive configurations that are determined by the membrane structure and multisets present inside membranes. Moreover, transitions between two consecutive configurations are provided by an exhaustive non-deterministic and parallel application of active evolution rules subset inside each membrane of the P system. But, to establish the active evolution rules subset, it is required the previous calculation of useful and applicable rules. Hence, computation of applicable evolution rules subset is critical for the whole evolution process efficiency, because it is performed in parallel inside each membrane in every evolution step. The work presented here shows advantages of incorporating decision trees in the evolution rules applicability algorithm. In order to it, necessary formalizations will be presented to consider this as a classification problem, the method to obtain the necessary decision tree automatically generated and the new algorithm for applicability based on it.

Modeling the Effect of Land Use and Climate Change Scenarios on the Water Flux of the Upper Mara River Flow, Kenya

Increasingly erratic flow in the upper reaches of the Mara River, has directed attention to land use change as the major cause of this problem. The semi-distributed hydrological model SWAT and Landsat imagery were utilized in order to 1) map existing land use practices, 2) determine the impacts of land use change on water flux; and 3) determine the impacts of climate change scenarios on the water flux of the upper Mara River. This study found that land use change scenarios resulted in more erratic discharge while climate change scenarios had a more predictable impact on the discharge and water balance components. The model results showed the flow was more sensitive to the rainfall changes than land use changes but land use changes reduce dry season flows which is a major problem in the basin. Deforestation increased the peak flows which translated to increased sediment loading in the Mara River.