A Complexity Based Model for Quantifying Forensic Evidential Probabilities

An operational complexity model (OCM) is proposed to enable the complexity of both the cognitive and the computational components of a process to be determined. From the complexity of formation of a set of traces via a specified route a measure of the probability of that route can be determined. By determining the complexities of alternative routes leading to the formation of the same set of traces, the odds ratio indicating the relative plausibility of the alternative routes can be found. An illustrative application to a BitTorrent piracy case is presented, and the results obtained suggest that the OCM is capable of providing a realistic estimate of the odds ratio for two competing hypotheses. It is also demonstrated that the OCM can be straightforwardly refined to encompass a variety of circumstances.

Laws of large numbers for non-additive probabilities

We apply the concept of exchangeable random variables to the case of non-additive robability distributions exhibiting ncertainty aversion, and in the lass generated bya convex core convex non-additive probabilities, ith a convex core). We are able to rove two versions of the law of arge numbers (de Finetti's heorems). By making use of two efinitions. of independence we rove two versions of the strong law f large numbers. It turns out that e cannot assure the convergence of he sample averages to a constant. e then modal the case there is a true" probability distribution ehind the successive realizations of the uncertain random variable. In this case convergence occurs. This result is important because it renders true the intuition that it is possible "to learn" the "true" additive distribution behind an uncertain event if one repeatedly observes it (a sufficiently large number of times). We also provide a conjecture regarding the "Iearning" (or updating) process above, and prove a partia I result for the case of Dempster-Shafer updating rule and binomial trials.

Optical and dielectric relaxor behaviour of Ba(Zr0.25Ti0.75)O-3 ceramic explained by means of distorted clusters

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

Photoluminescence behavior in MgTiO3 powders with vacancy/distorted clusters and octahedral tilting

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

Optical transition probabilities and compositional dependence of Judd-Ofelt parameters of Er3+ ions in fluoroindate glass

Fluoroindate glasses containing 1, 2, 3, and 4 mol% ErF3 were prepared in a dry box under an argon atmosphere. Absorption spectra of these glasses at room temperature were obtained. The Judd-Ofelt parameters Ωλ (λ = 2, 4, 6) for f-f transitions of Er3+ ions as well as transition probabilities, branching ratios, radiative lifetimes, and peak cross-sections for stimulated emission of each band were determined. The concentration effect on the intensities is analyzed. The optical properties of the fluoroindate glasses doped with Er3+ ions are compared with those of other glasses described in the literature. © 1995.

Detecting migrants in populations of Rhizoctonia solani anastomosis group 3 from potato in North Carolina using multilocus genotype probabilities

The relative contribution of migration of Rhizoctonia solani anastomosis group 3 (AG-3) on infested potato seed tubers originating from production areas in Canada, Maine, and Wisconsin (source population) to the genetic diversity and structure of populations of R. solani AG-3 in North Carolina (NC) soil (recipient population) was examined. The frequency of alleles detected by multilocus polymerase chain reaction-restriction fragment length polymorphisms, heterozygosity at individual loci, and gametic phase disequilibrium between all pairs of loci were determined for subpopulations of R. solani AG-3 from eight sources of potato seed tubers and from five soils in NC. Analysis of molecular variation revealed little variation between seed source and NC recipient soil populations or between subpopulations within each region. Analysis of population data with a Bayesian-based statistical method previously developed for detecting migration in human populations suggested that six multilocus genotypes from the NC soil population had a statistically significant probability of being migrants from the northern source population. The one-way (unidirectional) migration of genotypes of R. solani AG-3 into NC on infested potato seed tubers from Canada, Maine, and Wisconsin provides a plausible explanation for the lack of genetic subdivision (differentiation) between populations of the pathogen in NC soils or between the northern source and the NC recipient soil populations.

Magnetoelastic couplings in the distorted diamond-chain compound azurite

We present results of ultrasonic measurements on a single crystal of the distorted diamond-chain compound azurite Cu-3(CO3)(2)(OH)(2). Pronounced elastic anomalies are observed in the temperature dependence of the longitudinal elastic mode c(22) which can be assigned to the relevant magnetic interactions in the system and their couplings to the lattice degrees of freedom. From a semiquantitative analysis of the magnetic contribution to c(22) the magnetoelastic coupling G = partial derivative J(2)/partial derivative epsilon(b) can be estimated, where J(2) is the intradimer coupling constant and epsilon(b) the strain along the intrachain b axis. We find an exceptionally large coupling constant of | G| similar to 3650 K highlighting an extraordinarily strong sensitivity of J(2) against changes of the b-axis lattice parameter. These results are complemented by measurements of the hydrostatic pressure dependence of J2 by means of thermal expansion and magnetic susceptibility measurements performed both at ambient and finite hydrostatic pressure. We propose that a structural peculiarity of this compound, in which Cu2O6 dimer units are incorporated in an unusually stretched manner, is responsible for the anomalously large magnetoelastic coupling.

Predicting the behaviour of structures under impact loads using geometrically distorted scaled models

When a scaled structure (model or replica) is used to predict the response of a full-size compound (prototype), the model geometric dimensions should relate to the corresponding prototype dimensions by a single scaling factor. However, owing to manufacturing technical restrictions, this condition cannot be accomplished for some of the dimensions in real structures. Accordingly, the distorted geometry will not comply with the overall geometric scaling factor, infringing the Pi theorem requirements for complete dynamic similarity. In the present study, a method which takes geometrical distortions into account is introduced, leading to a model similar to the prototype. As a means to infer the performance of this method, three analytical problems of structures subjected to dynamic loads are analysed. It is shown that the replica developed applying this technique is able to accurately predict the full-size structure behaviour even when the studied models have some of their dimensions severely distorted. (C) 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Average control of Markov decision processes with Feller transition probabilities and general action spaces

This paper studies the average control problem of discrete-time Markov Decision Processes (MDPs for short) with general state space, Feller transition probabilities, and possibly non-compact control constraint sets A(x). Two hypotheses are considered: either the cost function c is strictly unbounded or the multifunctions A(r)(x) = {a is an element of A(x) : c(x, a) <= r} are upper-semicontinuous and compact-valued for each real r. For these two cases we provide new results for the existence of a solution to the average-cost optimality equality and inequality using the vanishing discount approach. We also study the convergence of the policy iteration approach under these conditions. It should be pointed out that we do not make any assumptions regarding the convergence and the continuity of the limit function generated by the sequence of relative difference of the alpha-discounted value functions and the Poisson equations as often encountered in the literature. (C) 2012 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Predicting future risk of asthma exacerbations using individual conditional probabilities

Determination of future risk of exacerbations is a key issue in the management of asthma. We previously developed a method to calculate conditional probabilities (π) of future decreases in lung function by using the daily fluctuations in peak expiratory flow (PEF).

Modification of the magnetic properties of a heterometallic wheel by inclusion of a Jahn-Teller distorted Cu(II) ion

An investigation into the physical consequences of including a Jahn-Teller distorted Cu(II) ion within an antiferromagnetically coupled ring, [R(2)NH(2)][Cr(7)CuF(8)((O(2)C(t)Bu)(16))] is reported. Inelastic neutron scattering (INS) and electron paramagnetic resonance (EPR) spectroscopic data are simulated using a microscopic spin Hamiltonian, and show that the two Cr-Cu exchange interactions must be inequivalent. One Cr-Cu exchange is found to be antiferromagnetic and the other ferromagnetic. The geometry of the Jahn-Teller elongation is deduced from these results, and shows that a Jahn-Teller elongation axis must lie in the plane of the Cr(7)Cu wheel; the elongation is not observed by X-ray crystallography, due to positional disorder of the Cu site within the wheel. An electronic structure calculation confirms the structural distortion of the Cu site.