Integrated approach for diagnostics and prognostics of HP LNG pump based on health state probability estimation

Effective machine fault prognostic technologies can lead to elimination of unscheduled downtime and increase machine useful life and consequently lead to reduction of maintenance costs as well as prevention of human casualties in real engineering asset management. This paper presents a technique for accurate assessment of the remnant life of machines based on health state probability estimation technique and historical failure knowledge embedded in the closed loop diagnostic and prognostic system. To estimate a discrete machine degradation state which can represent the complex nature of machine degradation effectively, the proposed prognostic model employed a classification algorithm which can use a number of damage sensitive features compared to conventional time series analysis techniques for accurate long-term prediction. To validate the feasibility of the proposed model, the five different level data of typical four faults from High Pressure Liquefied Natural Gas (HP-LNG) pumps were used for the comparison of intelligent diagnostic test using five different classification algorithms. In addition, two sets of impeller-rub data were analysed and employed to predict the remnant life of pump based on estimation of health state probability using the Support Vector Machine (SVM) classifier. The results obtained were very encouraging and showed that the proposed prognostics system has the potential to be used as an estimation tool for machine remnant life prediction in real life industrial applications.

Mass spectrometric study of the dissociation of Group XI metal complexes with fatty acids and glycerolipids : Ag2H+ and Cu2H+ ion formation in the presence of a double bond

Results of mass spectrometric studies are reported for the collisional dissociation of Group XI (Cu, Ag, Au) metal ion complexes with fatty acids (palmitic, oleic, linoleic and a-linolenic) and glycerolipids. Remarkably, the formation of M2H+ ions (M = Cu, Ag) is observed as a dissociation product of the ion complexes containing more than one metal cation and only if the lipid in the complex contains a double bond. Ag2H+ is formed as the main dissociation channel for all three of the fatty acids containing double bonds that were investigated while Cu2H+ is formed with one of the fatty acids and, although abundant, is not the dominant dissociation channel. Also. Cu(I) and Ag(I) ion complexes were observed with glycerolipids (including triacylglycerols and glycerophospholipids) containing either saturated or unsaturated fatty acid substituents. Interestingly. Ag2H+ ion is formed in a major fragmentation channel with the lipids that are able to form the complex with two metal cations (triacylglycerols and glycerophosphoglycerols), while lipids containing a fixed positive charge (glycerophospocholines) complex only with a single metal cation. The formation of Ag2H+ ion is a significant dissociation channel from the complex ion Ag-2(L-H)(+) where L = Glycerophospholipid (GP) (18:1/18:1). Cu(I) also forms complexes of two metal cations with glycerophospholipids but these do not produce Cu2H+ upon dissociation. Rather organic fragments, not containing Cu(I), are formed, perhaps due to different interactions of these metal cations with lipids resulting from the much smaller ionic radius of Cu(I) compared to Ag(I) (C).

Bond dissociation energies of organic molecules

In this Account we have compiled a list of reliable bond energies that are based on a set of critically evaluated experiments. A brief description of the three most important experimental techniques for measuring bond energies is provided. We demonstrate how these experimental data can be applied to yield the heats of formation of organic radicals and the bond enthalpies of more than 100 representative organic molecules.

Probability and story-telling : normative and descriptive models of juridical proof

The operation of the law rests on the selection of an account of the facts. Whether this involves prediction or postdiction, it is not possible to achieve certainty. Any attempt to model the operation of the law completely will therefore raise questions of how to model the process of proof. In the selection of a model a crucial question will be whether the model is to be used normatively or descriptively. Focussing on postdiction, this paper presents and contrasts the mathematical model with the story model. The former carries the normative stamp of scientific approval, whereas the latter has been developed by experimental psychologists to describe how humans reason. Neil Cohen's attempt to use a mathematical model descriptively provides an illustration of the dangers in not clearly setting this parameter of the modelling process. It should be kept in mind that the labels 'normative' and 'descriptive' are not eternal. The mathematical model has its normative limits, beyond which we may need to critically assess models with descriptive origins.

Ozone-Induced Dissociation on a Modified Tandem Linear Ion-Trap : Observations of Different Reactivity for Isomeric Lipids

Ozone-induced dissociation (OzID) exploits the gas-phase reaction between mass-selected lipid ions and ozone vapor to determine the position(s) of unsaturation In this contribution, we describe the modification of a tandem linear ion-trap mass spectrometer specifically for OzID analyses wherein ozone vapor is supplied to the collision cell This instrumental configuration provides spatial separation between mass-selection, the ozonolysis reaction, and mass-analysis steps in the OzID process and thus delivers significant enhancements in speed and sensitivity (ca 30-fold) These improvements allow spectra revealing the double-bond position(s) within unsaturated lipids to be acquired within 1 s significantly enhancing the utility of OzID in high-throughput lipidomic protocols The stable ozone concentration afforded by this modified instrument also allows direct comparison of relative reactivity of isomeric lipids and reveals reactivity trends related to (1) double-bond position, (2) substitution position on the glycerol backbone, and (3) stereochemistry For cis- and trans-isomers, differences were also observed in the branching ratio of product ions arising from the gas-phase ozonolysis reaction, suggesting that relative ion abundances could be exploited as markers for double-bond geometry Additional activation energy applied to mass-selected lipid ions during injection into the collision cell (with ozone present) was found to yield spectra containing both OzID and classical-CID fragment ions This combination CID-OzID acquisition on an ostensibly simple monounsaturated phosphatidylcholine within a cow brain lipid extract provided evidence for up to four structurally distinct phospholipids differing in both double-bond position and sn-substitution U Am Soc Mass Spectrom 2010, 21, 1989-1999) (C) 2010 American Society for Mass Spectrometry

Analysis of unsaturated lipids by ozone-induced dissociation

Recent developments in analytical technologies have driven significant advances in lipid science. The sensitivity and selectivity of modern mass spectrometers can now provide for the detection and even quantification of many hundreds of lipids in a single analysis. In parallel, increasing evidence from structural biology suggests that a detailed knowledge of lipid molecular structure including carbon-carbon double bond position, stereochemistry and acyl chain regiochemistry is required to fully appreciate the biochemical role(s) of individual lipids. Here we review the capabilities and limitations of tandem mass spectrometry to provide this level of structural specificity in the analysis of lipids present in complex biological extracts. In particular, we focus on the capabilities of a novel technology termed ozone-induced dissociation to identify the position (s) of double bonds in unsaturated lipids and discuss its possible role in efforts to develop workflows that provide for complete structure elucidation of lipids by mass spectrometry alone: so-called top-down lipidomics. This article is part of a Special Issue entitled: Lipodomics and Imaging Mass Spectrom. (C) 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The Quantum Probability Ranking Principle for Information Retrieval

While the Probability Ranking Principle for Information Retrieval provides the basis for formal models, it makes a very strong assumption regarding the dependence between documents. However, it has been observed that in real situations this assumption does not always hold. In this paper we propose a reformulation of the Probability Ranking Principle based on quantum theory. Quantum probability theory naturally includes interference effects between events. We posit that this interference captures the dependency between the judgement of document relevance. The outcome is a more sophisticated principle, the Quantum Probability Ranking Principle, that provides a more sensitive ranking which caters for interference/dependence between documents’ relevance.

Ion-assisted precursor dissociation and surface diffusion : enabling rapid, low-temperature growth of carbon nanofibers

Growth kinetics of carbon nanofibers in a hydrocarbon plasma is studied. In addition to gas-phase and surface processes common to chemical vapor deposition, the model includes (unique to plasma-exposed catalyst surfaces) ion-induced dissociation of hydrocarbons, interaction of adsorbed species with incoming hydrogen atoms, and dissociation of hydrocarbon ions. It is shown that at low, nanodevice-friendly process temperatures the nanofibers grow via surface diffusion of carbon adatoms produced on the catalyst particle via ion-induced dissociation of a hydrocarbon precursor. These results explain a lower activation energy of nanofiber growth in a plasma and can be used for the synthesis of other nanoassemblies. © 2007 American Institute of Physics.

Symptom correlates of static and dynamic facial affect processing in schizophrenia : evidence of a double dissociation?

Schizophrenia patients have been shown to be compromised in their ability to recognize facial emotion. This deficit has been shown to be related to negative symptoms severity. However, to date, most studies have used static rather than dynamic depictions of faces. Nineteen patients with schizophrenia were compared with seventeen controls on 2 tasks; the first involving the discrimination of facial identity, emotion, and butterfly wings; the second testing emotion recognition using both static and dynamic stimuli. In the first task, the patients performed more poorly than controls for emotion discrimination only, confirming a specific deficit in facial emotion recognition. In the second task, patients performed more poorly in both static and dynamic facial emotion processing. An interesting pattern of associations suggestive of a possible double dissociation emerged in relation to correlations with symptom ratings: high negative symptom ratings were associated with poorer recognition of static displays of emotion, whereas high positive symptom ratings were associated with poorer recognition of dynamic displays of emotion. However, while the strength of associations between negative symptom ratings and accuracy during static and dynamic facial emotion processing was significantly different, those between positive symptom ratings and task performance were not. The results confirm a facial emotion-processing deficit in schizophrenia using more ecologically valid dynamic expressions of emotion. The pattern of findings may reflect differential patterns of cortical dysfunction associated with negative and positive symptoms of schizophrenia in the context of differential neural mechanisms for the processing of static and dynamic displays of facial emotion.

Development of fourth-grade students’ understanding of experimental and theoretical probability

Students explored variation and expectation in a probability activity at the end of the first year of a 3-year longitudinal study across grades 4-6. The activity involved experiments in tossing coins both manually and with simulation using the graphing software, TinkerPlots. Initial responses indicated that the students were aware of uncertainty, although an understanding of chance concepts appeared limited. Predicting outcomes of 10 tosses reflected an intuitive notion of equiprobability, with little awareness of variation. Understanding the relationship between experimental and theoretical probability did not emerge until multiple outcomes and representations were generated with the software.

Low probability differentials and the cryptanalysis of full-round CLEFIA-128

So far, low probability differentials for the key schedule of block ciphers have been used as a straightforward proof of security against related-key differential analysis. To achieve resistance, it is believed that for cipher with k-bit key it suffices the upper bound on the probability to be 2− k . Surprisingly, we show that this reasonable assumption is incorrect, and the probability should be (much) lower than 2− k . Our counter example is a related-key differential analysis of the well established block cipher CLEFIA-128. We show that although the key schedule of CLEFIA-128 prevents differentials with a probability higher than 2− 128, the linear part of the key schedule that produces the round keys, and the Feistel structure of the cipher, allow to exploit particularly chosen differentials with a probability as low as 2− 128. CLEFIA-128 has 214 such differentials, which translate to 214 pairs of weak keys. The probability of each differential is too low, but the weak keys have a special structure which allows with a divide-and-conquer approach to gain an advantage of 27 over generic analysis. We exploit the advantage and give a membership test for the weak-key class and provide analysis of the hashing modes. The proposed analysis has been tested with computer experiments on small-scale variants of CLEFIA-128. Our results do not threaten the practical use of CLEFIA.

In search of good probability assessors: An experimental comparison of elicitation rules for confidence judgments

In this paper, we use an experimental design to compare the performance of elicitation rules for subjective beliefs. Contrary to previous works in which elicited beliefs are compared to an objective benchmark, we consider a purely subjective belief framework (confidence in one’s own performance in a cognitive task and a perceptual task). The performance of different elicitation rules is assessed according to the accuracy of stated beliefs in predicting success. We measure this accuracy using two main factors: calibration and discrimination. For each of them, we propose two statistical indexes and we compare the rules’ performances for each measurement. The matching probability method provides more accurate beliefs in terms of discrimination, while the quadratic scoring rule reduces overconfidence and the free rule, a simple rule with no incentives, which succeeds in eliciting accurate beliefs. Nevertheless, the matching probability appears to be the best mechanism for eliciting beliefs due to its performances in terms of calibration and discrimination, but also its ability to elicit consistent beliefs across measures and across tasks, as well as its empirical and theoretical properties.

On the probability that the determinant of an nxn matrix over a finite field vanishe

An expression is derived for the probability that the determinant of an n x n matrix over a finite field vanishes; from this it is deduced that for a fixed field this probability tends to 1 as n tends to.

Proposed vehicle impact speed: Severe injury probability relationships for selected crash types

Speed is recognised as a key contributor to crash likelihood and severity, and to road safety performance in general. Its fundamental role has been recognised by making Safe Speeds one of the four pillars of the Safe System. In this context, impact speeds above which humans are likely to sustain fatal injuries have been accepted as a reference in many Safe System infrastructure policy and planning discussions. To date, there have been no proposed relationships for impact speeds above which humans are likely to sustain fatal or serious (severe) injury, a more relevant Safe System measure. A research project on Safe System intersection design required a critical review of published literature on the relationship between impact speed and probability of injury. This has led to a number of questions being raised about the origins, accuracy and appropriateness of the currently accepted impact speed–fatality probability relationships (Wramborg 2005) in many policy documents. The literature review identified alternative, more recent and more precise relationships derived from the US crash reconstruction databases (NASS/CDS). The paper proposes for discussion a set of alternative relationships between vehicle impact speed and probability of MAIS3+ (fatal and serious) injury for selected common crash types. Proposed Safe System critical impact speed values are also proposed for use in road infrastructure assessment. The paper presents the methodology and assumptions used in developing these relationships. It identifies further research needed to confirm and refine these relationships. Such relationships would form valuable inputs into future road safety policies in Australia and New Zealand.