949 resultados para Diseases forecasting system


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SETTING: New cases of pulmonary tuberculosis (TB) were noted in a cluster of young Caucasian males, an unusual ethnic group for this disease in Queensland, Australia. It was noted that marijuana water pipe ('bong') smoking was common amongst cases and contacts. OBJECTIVE: To report this cluster of TB and to investigate whether shared use of a marijuana water pipe was associated with transmission of TB. DESIGN: All contacts were identified and screened according to standard protocols. Cases were asked to list contacts with whom they had shared a marijuana water pipe. RESULTS: Five cases of open pulmonary TB were identified clinically and on sputum culture, and all isolates of Mycobacterium tuberculosis were identical on typing. Of 149 contacts identified, 114 (77%) completed screening, and 57 (50%) had significant tuberculin skin test (TST) reactions on follow-up. Of 45 contacts who had shared a marijuana water pipe with a case, 29 (64%) had a significant TST reaction. CONCLUSION: Sharing a marijuana water pipe with a case of pulmonary TB was associated with transmission of TB (OR 2.22, 95% CI 0.96-5.17), although the most important risk factor for acquiring TB infection in this cluster was close household contact with a case (OR 4.91, 95% CI 1.13-20.70).

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OBJECTIVE: To investigate the economic effects of illness on individual tuberculosis (TB) cases in rural China and to use a case-control study to show a strong TB-poverty link. SETTING: In 2002-2004 we studied 160 new smear-positive pulmonary tuberculosis (PTB) cases and 320 age- and sex-matched controls living in neighbouring houses in four rural counties of Henan Province. DESIGN: Cases and controls were interviewed 1-3 months after patients were diagnosed. We used matched multivariate logistic regression to compare cases with controls for poverty status using household income, household assets and relative wealth within the village. We conducted follow-up interviews of patients 10-12 months later to assess economic effects by collecting data on treatment costs, income losses, coping strategies and treatment completion. RESULTS: Poverty is strongly associated with TB incidence even after controlling for smoking and other risk factors. Excluding income losses, direct out-of-pocket treatment costs (medical and non-medical) accounted for 55.5 % of average annual household income, and most TB cases fell into heavy debt. The DOTS cure rate was 91 %. When DOTS was incomplete or not done, mortality was high. CONCLUSIONS: Poverty is both a cause and a devastating outcome of TB. Ongoing poverty reduction schemes in China must also include reducing TB.

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Background HIV infection and drugs of abuse such as methamphetamine (METH), cocaine, and alcohol use have been identified as risk factors for triggering inflammation. Acute phase proteins such as C-reactive protein (CRP) and serum amyloid A (SAA) are the biomarkers of inflammation. Hence, the interactive effect of drugs of abuse with acute phase proteins in HIV-positive subjects was investigated. Methods Plasma samples were utilized from 75 subjects with METH use, cocaine use, alcohol use, and HIV-positive alone and HIV-positive METH, cocaine, and alcohol users, and age-matched control subjects. The plasma CRP and SAA levels were measured by ELISA and western blot respectively and the CD4 counts were also measured. Results Observed results indicated that the CRP and SAA levels in HIV-positive subjects who are METH, cocaine and alcohol users were significantly higher when compared with either drugs of abuse or HIV-positive alone. The CD4 counts were also dramatically reduced in HIV-positive with drugs of abuse subjects compared with only HIV-positive subjects. Conclusions These results suggest that, in HIV-positive subjects, drugs of abuse increase the levels of CRP and SAA, which may impact on the HIV infection and disease progression.

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The characteristics profile of individuals who develop AIDS in Brazil has changed over time. Among these modifications, a worrying finding is the increased incidence of AIDS in the elderly across the country. But, however, is not yet clear whether the increase in AIDS cases is sufficient to produce a change in the trend of measures in recent years in the Brazilian states, and this increase has an effect from the socioeconomic and demographic indicators. In this sense, the objective of this study is to analyze the AIDS incidence rates among the elderly in Brazil and its effect on socioeconomic and demographic inequalities in the period 2000 to 2012. This is an ecological time-series study to meet behavior of the time series of the incidence rates of AIDS in the elderly from 2000 to 2012. the rates were calculated using the secondary data from Diseases Information System Notification and the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics. Data were analyzed statistically to know the trends in incidence rates, by polynomial regression model and joinpoint log-linear regression model, but also the simple linear regression analysis to find the relationship of trends with variables socioeconomic and demographic. SPSS 20.0® and Joinpoint 4.1.1 programs were used. All tests were carried out considering a significance of 5%. After the analysis, in Brazil were reported 62,052 new cases of AIDS in the elderly from 2000 to 2012. During this period, a significant increase was found for males, both aged 50-59 years (APPC: 3.46 %, p <0.001), such as above 59 years (AAPC: 4.38%; p <0.001). For females, the increase was significant and has the largest increments in the time series, when compared to males in both age groups (AAPC: 4.62%, p <0.001 and AAPC: 6.53%; p <0.001) respectively. The largest increases are observed in women and in the states of North and Northeast. In the Southeast Region is observed stabilization of rates throughout the series. The reason of trends between the sexes had a significant reduction, but also an approach in both age groups of the study, reaching a ratio of 1.7 males for every female in the youngest age group. The trends were related to illiteracy rates, with increasing social inequality and the lowest human development in the Brazilian states. We conclude that in Brazil the incidence of AIDS in the elderly follows an increasing trend in individuals over 50 years. Noteworthy are the highest rates of study in women and in the states of North and Northeast. In this sense, the country needs to enhance policies towards older people with STD / AIDS, training health professionals and developing effective measures for the prevention and early diagnosis of infected people, especially in places with limited resources and high social inequality. In the long term, it is developing new studies to understand whether the measures taken were effective in reducing the trends identified in this study.

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The increasing prevalence of Repetitive Strain Injury / Work-Related Musculoskeletal Disorders (RSI / MSDs) has been explained by changes in the work that has been characterized by setting goals and productivity. This fact does not take into account the psycho-physiological characteristics of workers who become ill as a result of professional activities engaged in and also the adverse conditions in which his work was done. This study aimed to analyze the RSI / MSDs reported in the state of Rio Grande do Norte, Brazil, 2010-2014 compared to the profile of the population, epidemiological aspects and features of these diseases. It is a descriptive epidemiological cross-sectional study using secondary data obtained in the Notifiable Diseases Information System (SINAN) in May 2015 was used as the area covered by the Rio Grande do Norte. Data were collected regarding the grievances of work-related RSI / MSDs, assigned by the Worker's Health Reference Center (CEREST) of the State Health Department. Data were processed with the help of Microsoft Excel® 2013 and presented in tables in absolute frequency (n) and relative frequency (%). The results showed a total of 403 notifications of RSI / MSDs, where the vast majority 72% (290) was recorded in Natal. Regarding the profile of notified employees, 88.59% (357) have aged between 25 and 54 years, 62.78% (253) were female, and in relation to education, 31.51% (127) had high school complete. The most affected occupations were seamstresses (the clothing industry) with 24.97% (97), followed by masons, construction with 3.23% (13) and cashiers with 2.99% (12). About the work situation, 75.93% (306) had a formal contract, however, were sent to Communications Occupational accidents (CAT) only 67% (270) of the cases. Regarding the signs and symptoms, pain and limitation of movement were the most mentioned respectively with 98.01% (395) and 95.04% (383) of notifications. Notifications, 94.29% (380) showed exposure to repetitive movements in their workplace. The most frequent specific diagnoses were synovitis and tenosynovitis (CID F 65), with 30.02% (121) of notifications, followed by back pain (CID F 54) to 19.35% (78) and shoulder injuries (ICD M 75) with 15.88% (64). They were away from work 81.64% (329) of workers reported with RSI / MSDs. Evolution more prevalent among cases was temporary disability with 75.68% (305). It was concluded that the SINAN is a database of potential to characterize the profile of RSI / MSDs, requiring, however, an improvement in the coverage of records and data quality. In addition, this study reflects the need to implement protection strategies to workers by companies, signaling promotion, prevention and rehabilitation aimed at reducing these injuries and the improvement of occupational health indicators in Rio Grande do Norte.

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The data set consists of maps of total velocity of surface currents in the Ibiza Channel, derived from HF radar measurements.

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Objetivo: Apresentar o quadro de violência sexual contra a mulher no Brasil, com base nas notificações realizadas no Sistema de Informação de Agravos de Notificação (SINAN). Métodos: Trata-se de um estudo descritivo, com abordagem quantitativa, que analisou informações referentes às notificações de violência sexual contra a mulher, no período de 2009 a 2013, considerando a unidade da federação, perfil das mulheres, características da ocorrência e encaminhamentos realizados pelo setor saúde. Os dados foram analisados por meio da estatística descritiva, sendo apresentados números absolutos e relativos derivados das notificações. Resultados: No Brasil, foram registradas 21.871 notificações no período estudado. Observaram-se maiores taxas de registros no ano de 2013 e na região Norte. Predominou o ciclo de vida de 10 a 19 anos (10.806/49,4%), as raças branca (8.894/40,7%) e parda (8.535/39,0%), e a escolaridade ensino fundamental incompleto (5.444/24,9%). Os casos de violência sexual ocorreram com maior frequência na residência da mulher (13.259/60,6%), com agressor conhecido (5.649/25,8%) e sem suspeita do uso de álcool (9.249/42,3%). A maior parte do atendimento no setor saúde foi de nível ambulatorial (15.842/72,6%), e os casos evoluíram para alta (16.879/77,2%). Conclusão: As notificações cresceram progressivamente no período estudado, e a violência sexual contra a mulher no país, registrada pelo setor saúde, atingiu, principalmente, adolescentes, no ambiente doméstico e com agressor conhecido.

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Climate change and solar ultraviolet radiation may affect vaccine-preventable infectious diseases (VPID), the human immune response process and the immunization service delivery system. We systematically reviewed the scientific literature and identified 37 relevant publications. Our study shows that climate variability and ultraviolet radiation may potentially affect VPID and the immunization delivery system through modulating vector reproduction and vaccination effectiveness, possibly influencing human immune response systems to the vaccination, and disturbing immunization service delivery. Further research is needed to determine these affects on climate-sensitive VPID and on human immune response to common vaccines. Such research will facilitate the development and delivery of optimal vaccination programs for target populations, to meet the goal of disease control and elimination.

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Influenza is associated with substantial disease burden [ 1]. Development of a climate-based early warning system for in fluenza epidemics has been recommended given the signi fi - cant association between climate variability and influenza activity [2]. Brisbane is a subtropical city in Australia and offers free in fluenza vaccines to residents aged ≥65 years considering their high risks in developing life-threatening complications, especially for in fluenza A predominant seasons. Hong Kong is an international subtropical city in Eastern Asia and plays a crucial role in global infectious diseases transmission dynamics via the international air transportation network [3, 4]. We hypothesized that Hong Kong in fluenza surveillance data could provide a signal for in fluenza epidemics in Brisbane [ 4]. This study aims to develop an epidemic forecasting model for influenza A in Brisbane elders, by combining climate variability and Hong Kong in fluenza A surveillance data. Weekly numbers of laboratoryconfirmed influenza A positive isolates for people aged ≥65 years from 2004 to 2009 were obtained for Brisbane from Queensland Health, Australia, and for Hong Kong from Queen Mary Hospital (QMH). QMH is the largest public hospital located in Hong Kong Island, and in fluenza surveillance data from this hospital have been demonstrated to be representative for influenza circulation in the entirety of Hong Kong [ 5]. The Brisbane in fluenza A epidemics occurred during July –September, whereas the Hong Kong in fluenza A epidemics occurred during February –March and May –August.

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Indoor air quality is a critical factor in the classroom due to high people concentration in a unique space. Indoor air pollutant might increase the chance of both long and short-term health problems among students and staff, reduce the productivity of teachers and degrade the student’s learning environment and comfort. Adequate air distribution strategies may reduce risk of infection in classroom. So, the purpose of air distribution systems in a classroom is not only to maximize conditions for thermal comfort, but also to remove indoor contaminants. Natural ventilation has the potential to play a significant role in achieving improvements in IAQ. The present study compares the risk of airborne infection between Natural Ventilation (opening windows and doors) and a Split-System Air Conditioner in a university classroom. The Wells-Riley model was used to predict the risk of indoor airborne transmission of infectious diseases such as influenza, measles and tuberculosis. For each case, the air exchange rate was measured using a CO2 tracer gas technique. It was found that opening windows and doors provided an air exchange rate of 2.3 air changes/hour (ACH), while with the Split System it was 0.6 ACH. The risk of airborne infection ranged between 4.24 to 30.86 % when using the Natural Ventilation and between 8.99 to 43.19% when using the Split System. The difference of airborne infection risk between the Split System and the Natural Ventilation ranged from 47 to 56%. Opening windows and doors maximize Natural Ventilation so that the risk of airborne contagion is much lower than with Split System.

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The grey system theory studies the uncertainty of small sample size problems. This paper using grey system theory in the deformation monitoring field, based on analysis of present grey forecast models, developed the spatial multi-point model. By using residual modification, the spatial multi-point residual model eras developed in further study. Then, combined with the sedimentation data of Xiaolangdi Multipurpose Dam, the results are compared and analyzed, the conclusion has been made and the advantages of the residual spatial multi-point model has been proved.

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A novel hybrid data-driven approach is developed for forecasting power system parameters with the goal of increasing the efficiency of short-term forecasting studies for non-stationary time-series. The proposed approach is based on mode decomposition and a feature analysis of initial retrospective data using the Hilbert-Huang transform and machine learning algorithms. The random forests and gradient boosting trees learning techniques were examined. The decision tree techniques were used to rank the importance of variables employed in the forecasting models. The Mean Decrease Gini index is employed as an impurity function. The resulting hybrid forecasting models employ the radial basis function neural network and support vector regression. A part from introduction and references the paper is organized as follows. The second section presents the background and the review of several approaches for short-term forecasting of power system parameters. In the third section a hybrid machine learningbased algorithm using Hilbert-Huang transform is developed for short-term forecasting of power system parameters. Fourth section describes the decision tree learning algorithms used for the issue of variables importance. Finally in section six the experimental results in the following electric power problems are presented: active power flow forecasting, electricity price forecasting and for the wind speed and direction forecasting.