Evaluation of the benefit of emergency vaccination in a foot-and-mouth disease free country with low livestock density

Foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) is highly contagious and one of the most economically devastating diseases of cloven-hoofed animals. Scientific-based preparedness about how to best control the disease in a previously FMD-free country is therefore essential for veterinary services. The present study used a spatial, stochastic epidemic simulation model to compare the effectiveness of emergency vaccination with conventional (non-vaccination) control measures in Switzerland, a low-livestock density country. Model results revealed that emergency vaccination with a radius of 3 km or 10 km around infected premises (IP) did not significantly reduce either the cumulative herd incidence or epidemic duration if started in a small epidemic situation where the number of IPs is still low. However, in a situation where the epidemic has become extensive, both the cumulative herd incidence and epidemic duration are reduced significantly if vaccination were implemented with a radius of 10 km around IPs. The effect of different levels of conventional strategy measures was also explored for the non-vaccination strategy. It was found that a lower compliance level of farmers for movement restrictions and delayed culling of IPs significantly increased both the cumulative IP incidence and epidemic duration. Contingency management should therefore focus mainly on improving conventional strategies, by increasing disease awareness and communication with stakeholders and preparedness of culling teams in countries with a livestock structure similar to Switzerland; however, emergency vaccination should be considered if there are reasons to believe that the epidemic may become extensive, such as when disease detection has been delayed and many IPs are discovered at the beginning of the epidemic.

Bayesian and survival model for tumor relapse status and disease-specific survival, with applications to breast cancer

Breast cancer is the most common non-skin cancer and the second leading cause of cancer-related death in women in the United States. Studies on ipsilateral breast tumor relapse (IBTR) status and disease-specific survival will help guide clinic treatment and predict patient prognosis.^ After breast conservation therapy, patients with breast cancer may experience breast tumor relapse. This relapse is classified into two distinct types: true local recurrence (TR) and new ipsilateral primary tumor (NP). However, the methods used to classify the relapse types are imperfect and are prone to misclassification. In addition, some observed survival data (e.g., time to relapse and time from relapse to death)are strongly correlated with relapse types. The first part of this dissertation presents a Bayesian approach to (1) modeling the potentially misclassified relapse status and the correlated survival information, (2) estimating the sensitivity and specificity of the diagnostic methods, and (3) quantify the covariate effects on event probabilities. A shared frailty was used to account for the within-subject correlation between survival times. The inference was conducted using a Bayesian framework via Markov Chain Monte Carlo simulation implemented in softwareWinBUGS. Simulation was used to validate the Bayesian method and assess its frequentist properties. The new model has two important innovations: (1) it utilizes the additional survival times correlated with the relapse status to improve the parameter estimation, and (2) it provides tools to address the correlation between the two diagnostic methods conditional to the true relapse types.^ Prediction of patients at highest risk for IBTR after local excision of ductal carcinoma in situ (DCIS) remains a clinical concern. The goals of the second part of this dissertation were to evaluate a published nomogram from Memorial Sloan-Kettering Cancer Center, to determine the risk of IBTR in patients with DCIS treated with local excision, and to determine whether there is a subset of patients at low risk of IBTR. Patients who had undergone local excision from 1990 through 2007 at MD Anderson Cancer Center with a final diagnosis of DCIS (n=794) were included in this part. Clinicopathologic factors and the performance of the Memorial Sloan-Kettering Cancer Center nomogram for prediction of IBTR were assessed for 734 patients with complete data. Nomogram for prediction of 5- and 10-year IBTR probabilities were found to demonstrate imperfect calibration and discrimination, with an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of .63 and a concordance index of .63. In conclusion, predictive models for IBTR in DCIS patients treated with local excision are imperfect. Our current ability to accurately predict recurrence based on clinical parameters is limited.^ The American Joint Committee on Cancer (AJCC) staging of breast cancer is widely used to determine prognosis, yet survival within each AJCC stage shows wide variation and remains unpredictable. For the third part of this dissertation, biologic markers were hypothesized to be responsible for some of this variation, and the addition of biologic markers to current AJCC staging were examined for possibly provide improved prognostication. The initial cohort included patients treated with surgery as first intervention at MDACC from 1997 to 2006. Cox proportional hazards models were used to create prognostic scoring systems. AJCC pathologic staging parameters and biologic tumor markers were investigated to devise the scoring systems. Surveillance Epidemiology and End Results (SEER) data was used as the external cohort to validate the scoring systems. Binary indicators for pathologic stage (PS), estrogen receptor status (E), and tumor grade (G) were summed to create PS+EG scoring systems devised to predict 5-year patient outcomes. These scoring systems facilitated separation of the study population into more refined subgroups than the current AJCC staging system. The ability of the PS+EG score to stratify outcomes was confirmed in both internal and external validation cohorts. The current study proposes and validates a new staging system by incorporating tumor grade and ER status into current AJCC staging. We recommend that biologic markers be incorporating into revised versions of the AJCC staging system for patients receiving surgery as the first intervention.^ Chapter 1 focuses on developing a Bayesian method to solve misclassified relapse status and application to breast cancer data. Chapter 2 focuses on evaluation of a breast cancer nomogram for predicting risk of IBTR in patients with DCIS after local excision gives the statement of the problem in the clinical research. Chapter 3 focuses on validation of a novel staging system for disease-specific survival in patients with breast cancer treated with surgery as the first intervention. ^

Changes in survival after breast cancer: improvements in diagnosis or treatment?

We have compared 5-year survival rates in two cohorts of women diagnosed with breast cancer in Brisbane, Australia, between 1981-1984 and 1990-1994. Tumours diagnosed in the early 1990s were significantly smaller and less likely to have nodal involvement than those diagnosed 10 years earlier (P < 0.0001). The size difference was particularly striking for women aged over 50 at diagnosis, those targeted for screening. Five-year survival was greater among women diagnosed in the 1990s (84% vs. 74%; hazard ratio (HR) 0.61, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.46-0.81). After adjusting for the effects of tumour size and nodal status this difference was reduced, but women diagnosed more recently still showed improved survival (HR 0.75; 95% CI 0.56-1.01) and disease-free survival (HR 0.72; 0.56-0.92) at 5 years. This suggests that both earlier diagnosis and changes in breast cancer treatment have contributed to improved breast cancer survival. (C) 2003 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

FcγRIIa and FcγRIIIa polymorphisms and cetuximab benefit in the microscopic disease

Purpose: FcγR polymorphisms have been reported to enhance the immune-mediated effects of cetuximab in metastatic colorectal cancer. There are no data on the relationship between these polymorphisms and cetuximab in the early-stage setting. We performed a pharmacogenomic analysis of EXPERT-C, a randomized phase II trial of neoadjuvant CAPOX followed by chemoradiotherapy, surgery, and adjuvant CAPOX ± cetuximab in high-risk, locally advanced rectal cancer.

Experimental Design: FcγRIIa-H131R and FcγRIIIa-V158F polymorphisms were analyzed on DNA from peripheral blood samples. Kaplan–Meier method and Cox regression analysis were used to calculate survival estimates and compare treatment arms.

Results: Genotyping was successfully performed in 105 of 164 (64%) patients (CAPOX = 54, CAPOX-C = 51). No deviation from the Hardy–Weinberg equilibrium or association of these polymorphisms with tumor RAS status was observed. FcγRIIa-131R (HR, 0.38; P = 0.058) and FcγRIIIa-158F alleles (HR, 0.21; P = 0.007) predicted improved progression-free survival (PFS) in patients treated with cetuximab. In the CAPOX-C arm, carriers of both 131R and 158F alleles had a statistically significant improvement in PFS (5 years: 78.4%; HR, 0.22; P = 0.002) and overall survival (OS; 5 years: 86.4%; HR, 0.24; P = 0.018) when compared with patients homozygous for 131H and/or 158V (5-year PFS: 35.7%; 5-year OS: 57.1%). An interaction between cetuximab benefit and 131R and 158F alleles was found for PFS (P = 0.017) and remained significant after adjusting for prognostic variables (P = 0.003).

Conclusion: This is the first study investigating FcγRIIa and FcγRIIIa polymorphisms in patients with early-stage colorectal cancer treated with cetuximab. We showed an increased clinical benefit from cetuximab in the presence of 131R and 158F alleles.

Biallelic ATM inactivation significantly reduces survival in patients treated on the United Kingdom Leukemia Research Fund Chronic Lymphocytic Leukemia 4 trial.

PURPOSE: The prognostic significance of ATM mutations in chronic lymphocytic leukemia (CLL) is unclear. We assessed their impact in the context of a prospective randomized trial. PATIENTS AND METHODS: We analyzed the ATM gene in 224 patients treated on the Leukemia Research Fund Chronic Lymphocytic Leukemia 4 (LRF-CLL4) trial with chlorambucil or fludarabine with and without cyclophosphamide. ATM status was analyzed by denaturing high-performance liquid chromatography and was related to treatment response, survival, and the impact of TP53 alterations for the same patient cohort. RESULTS: We identified 36 ATM mutations in 33 tumors, 16 with and 17 without 11q deletion. Mutations were associated with advanced disease stage and involvement of multiple lymphoid sites. Patients with both ATM mutation and 11q deletion showed significantly reduced progression-free survival (median, 7.4 months) compared with those with ATM wild type (28.6 months), 11q deletion alone (17.1 months), or ATM mutation alone (30.8 months), but survival was similar to that in patients with monoallelic (6.7 months) or biallelic (3.4 months) TP53 alterations. This effect was independent of treatment, immunoglobulin heavy chain variable gene (IGHV) status, age, sex, or disease stage. Overall survival for patients with biallelic ATM alterations was also significantly reduced compared with those with ATM wild type or ATM mutation alone (median, 42.2 v 85.5 v 77.6 months, respectively). CONCLUSION: The combination of 11q deletion and ATM mutation in CLL is associated with significantly shorter progression-free and overall survival following first-line treatment with alkylating agents and purine analogs. Assessment of ATM mutation status in patients with 11q deletion may influence the choice of subsequent therapy.

The Role Of The Inflammatory Microenvironment In Thyroid Carcinogenesis.

Immune responses against thyroid carcinomas have long been demonstrated and associations between inflammatory microenvironment and thyroid carcinomas repeatedly reported. This scenario has prompted scientists throughout the world to unveil how the inflammatory microenvironment is established in thyroid tumors and what is its influence on the outcome of patients with thyroid carcinoma. Many studies have reported the role of evasion from the immune system in tumor progression and reinforced the weakness of the innate immune response toward thyroid cancer spread in advanced stages. Translational studies have provided evidence that an increased density of tumor-associated macrophages in poorly differentiated thyroid carcinoma (DTC) is associated with an aggressive phenotype at diagnosis and decreased cancer-related survival, whereas well-DTC microenvironment enriched with macrophages is correlated with improved disease-free survival. It is possible that these different results are related to different microenvironments. Several studies have provided evidence that patients whose tumors are not infiltrated by lymphocytes present a high recurrence rate, suggesting that the presence of lymphocytes in the tumor microenvironment may favor the prognosis of patients with thyroid carcinoma. However, the effect of lymphocytes and other immune cells on patient outcome seems to result from complex interactions between the tumor and immune system, and the molecular pattern of cytokines and chemokines helps to explain the involvement of the immune system in thyroid tumor progression. The inflammatory microenvironment may help to characterize aggressive tumors and to identify patients who would benefit from a more invasive approach, probably sparing the vast majority of patients with an indolent disease from unnecessary procedures.

Prognostic Impact Of Perineural Invasion And Lymphovascular Invasion In Advanced Stage Oral Squamous Cell Carcinoma.

Perineural invasion (PNI) and lymphovascular invasion (LVI) have been associated with the risk of local recurrences and lymph node metastasis. The aim of this study was to evaluate the prognostic impact of PNI and LVI in patients with advanced stage squamous cell carcinoma of the tongue and floor of the mouth. One hundred and forty-two patients without previous treatment were selected. These patients underwent radical surgery with neck dissection and adjuvant treatment. Clinicopathological data were retrieved from the medical charts, including histopathology and surgery reports. Univariate analysis was performed to assess the impact of studied variables on survival. Overall survival was negatively influenced by six tumour-related factors: increasing T stage (P = 0.003), more than two clinically positive nodes (P = 0.002), extracapsular spread of lymph node metastasis (P < 0.001), tumour thickness (P = 0.04), PNI (P < 0.001), and LVI (P = 0.012). Disease-free survival was influenced by PNI (P = 0.04), extracapsular spread of lymph node metastasis (P = 0.008), and N stage (P = 0.006). Multivariate analysis showed PNI to be an independent predictor for overall survival (P = 0.01) and disease-free survival (P = 0.03). Thus the presence of PNI in oral carcinoma surgical specimens has a significant impact on survival outcomes in patients with advanced stage tumours submitted to radical surgery and adjuvant radiotherapy/radiochemotherapy.

Imunofenótipo e evolução de câncer de mama: comparação entre mulheres muito jovens e mulheres na pós-menopausa

OBJETIVO: avaliar características clínicas, patológicas e moleculares de carcinomas mamários em mulheres muito jovens em comparação a tumores de mulheres na pós-menopausa. MÉTODOS: foram selecionados 106 casos de câncer de mama de mulheres jovens e 130 casos de mulheres pós-menopausa. Foram analisados dados clínicos (idade ao diagnóstico, estadiamento, ocorrência de metástases, tempo de sobrevida global e livre de doença), anátomo-patológicos (tamanho do tumor, tipo e grau histológico do tumor primário) e marcadores moleculares (receptores de estrógeno e progesterona, HER2, p53, p63, citoqueratinas 5 e 14 e EGFR) com uso da imunoistoquímica empregando microarranjo de tecido. Foi analisada a relação entre as características clínico-patológicas, imunoistoquímicas e de sobrevidas global e livre de doença. RESULTADOS: as pacientes muito jovens apresentaram maior frequência de nuliparidade (p=0,03), maior diâmetro dos tumores (p<0,000), estadiamento clínico mais avançado (p=0,01), maior número de linfonodos positivos (p=0,001) e tumores pouco diferenciados (p=0,004). A maioria das pacientes jovens recebeu tratamento com quimioterapia (90,8%) e radioterapia (85,2%) e em menor proporção com tamoxifeno (31,5%), comparado às mulheres na pós-menopausa. Observamos baixa positividade para o receptor de estrógeno (49,1%; p=0,01) e alta positividade para a proteína HER2 (28,7%; p=0,03) nas mulheres jovens. O fenótipo triplo-negativo foi observado em 29,6% no grupo jovem e em 20% nas mulheres na pós-menopausa. Os tumores de fenótipo basal foram mais frequentes nas mulheres jovens (50%). As metástases sistêmicas ocorreram em 55,3% dos casos nas jovens e em 39,2% nas idosas. As sobrevidas global e livre de doença em cinco anos foram, respectivamente, 63 e 39% para as mulheres jovens e 75 e 67% para o grupo de mulheres na pós-menopausa. CONCLUSÕES: carcinomas mamários de mulheres muito jovens têm características clínicas, patológicas e moleculares mais agressivas quando comparadas às mulheres acima de 50 anos.

Menopausal status: a possible predictive factor for recurrence in women with cancer of the uterine cervix without pelvic lymph node metastasis

Abstract Objectives to evaluate risk factors for recurrence of carcinoma of the uterine cervix among women who had undergone radical hysterectomy without pelvic lymph node metastasis, while taking into consideration not only the classical histopathological factors but also sociodemographic, clinical and treatment-related factors. Study desin This was an exploratory analysis on 233 women with carcinoma of the uterine cervix (stages IB and IIA) who were treated by means of radical hysterectomy and pelvic lymphadenectomy, with free surgical margins and without lymph node metastases on conventional histopathological examination. Women with histologically normal lymph nodes but with micrometastases in the immunohistochemical analysis (AE1/AE3) were excluded. Disease-free survival for sociodemographic, clinical and histopathological variables was calculated using the Kaplan-Meier method. The Cox proportional hazards model was used to identify the independent risk factors for recurrence. Twenty-seven recurrences were recorded (11.6%), of which 18 were pelvic, four were distant, four were pelvic + distant and one was of unknown location. The five-year disease-free survival rate among the study population was 88.4%. The independent risk factors for recurrence in the multivariate analysis were: postmenopausal status (HR 14.1; 95% CI: 3.7-53.6; P < 0.001), absence of or slight inflammatory reaction (HR 7.9; 95% CI: 1.7-36.5; P = 0.008) and invasion of the deepest third of the cervix (HR 6.1; 95% CI: 1.3-29.1; P = 0.021). Postoperative radiotherapy was identified as a protective factor against recurrence (HR 0.02; 95% CI: 0.001-0.25; P = 0.003). (To continue) Postmenopausal status is a possible independent risk factor for recurrence even when adjusted for classical prognostic factors (such as tumour size, depth of tumour invasion, capillary embolisation) and treatment-related factors (period of treatment and postoperative radiotherapy status)

Prognostic Factors in Patients with Malignant Salivary Gland Neoplasms in a Brazilian Population

Due to the difficulty of follow-up for long periods, information about the survival rates of malignant salivary gland tumors is deficient in the global scientific literature. This study was aimed at investigating the epidemiological profile and prognostic factors that might affect survival in patients with primary malignant salivary gland tumors in Brazil. Patients were investigated regarding histopathological subtypes, age, gender, anatomic localization, smoking and alcohol intake, tumor size, clinical stage, histological grade, recurrence, metastasis, and treatment on clinicopathological outcomes. Survival curves were generated using the Kaplan-Meier method, and both univariate and multivariate analyses were performed using the log rank test and Cox regression, respectively. A total of 63 cases were analyzed, females beingslightly predominant (50.8%), with ages ranging from 13 to 87 years. The most common diagnosis was adenoid cystic carcinoma and the most affected anatomical location was the parotid. Tumors were predominantly classified as stage I and high-grade at the diagnosis. The 5- and 10-year overall survival rates were 84.6% and 74.7%, respectively. Disease-free survival (DFS) rates were 71.6% (5 years) and 56.6% (10 years). Univariate analysis showed significant effects of tumor size and clinical stage on the DFS (P < 0.0001 for both), and Cox regression analysis confirmed clinical stage as an independent prognostic factor (P = 0.035). Our results highlight the relevance of clinical stage as an independent prognostic parameter for malignant salivary gland tumors.

Epigenetic Silencing of CRABP2 and MX1 in Head and Neck Tumors

Head and neck squamous cell carcinoma (HNSCC) is a heterogeneous disease affecting the epithelium of the oral cavity, pharynx and larynx. Conditions of most patients are diagnosed at late stages of the disease, and no sensitive and specific predictors of aggressive behavior have been identified yet. Therefore, early detection and prognostic biomarkers are highly desirable for a more rational management of the disease. Hypermethylation of CpG islands is one of the most important epigenetic mechanisms that leads to gene silencing in tumors and has been extensively used for the identification of biomarkers. In this study, we combined rapid subtractive hybridization and microarray analysis in a hierarchical manner to select genes that are putatively reactivated by the demethylating agent 5-aza-2'-deoxycytidine (5Aza-dC) in HNSCC cell lines (FaDu, UM-SCC-14A, UM-SCC-17A, UM-SCC-38A). This combined analysis identified 78 genes, 35 of which were reactivated in at least 2 cell lines and harbored a CpG island at their 5' region. Reactivation of 3 of these 35 genes (CRABP2, MX1, and SLC15A3) was confirmed by quantitative real-time polymerase chain reaction (PCR; fold change, >= 3). Bisulfite sequencing of their CpG islands revealed that they are indeed differentially methylated in the HNSCC cell lines. Using methylation-specific PCR, we detected a higher frequency of CRABP2 (58.1% for region 1) and MX1 (46.3%) hypermethylation in primary HNSCC when compared with lymphocytes from healthy individuals. Finally, absence of the CRABP2 protein was associated with decreased disease-free survival rates, supporting a potential use of CRABP2 expression as a prognostic biomarker for HNSCC patients.

The interaction between N-category and N-ratio as a new tool to improve lymph node metastasis staging in gastric cancer: Results of a single cancer center in Brazil

Background: Depth of tumor invasion (T-category) and the number of metastatic lymph nodes (N-category) are the most important prognostic factors in patients with gastric cancer. Recently, the ratio between metastatic and dissected lymph nodes (N-ratio) has been established as one. The aim of this study is to evaluate the impact of N-ratio and its interaction with N-category as a prognostic factor in gastric cancer. Methods: This was a retrospective study in which we reviewed clinical and pathological data of 165 patients who had undergone curative surgery at our institution through a 9-year period. The exclusion criteria included metastases, gastric stump tumors and gastrectomy with less than 15 lymph nodes dissected. Results: The median age of the patients was 63 years and most of them were male. Total gastrectomy was the most common procedure and 92.1% of the patients had a D2-lymphadenectomy. Their 5-year overall survival was 57.7%. T-category, N-category, extended gastrectomy, and N-ratio were prognostic factors in overall and disease-free survival in accordance with univariate analysis. In accordance with TNM staging, N1 patients who have had NR1 had 5-year survival in 75.5% whereas in the NR2 group only 33% of the cases had 5-year survival. In the multivariate analysis, the interaction between N-category and N-ratio was an independent prognostic factor. Conclusion: Our findings confirmed the role of N-ratio as prognostic factor of survival in patients with gastric cancer surgically treated with at least 15 lymph nodes dissected. The relationship between N-category and N-ratio is a better predictor than lymph node metastasis staging. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Expression Profile of p63 in 127 Patients with Laryngeal Squamous Cell Carcinoma

Objectives: To evaluate p63 expression in laryngeal squamous cell carcinoma and its prognostic significance. Methods: p63 expression was examined by immunohistochemistry and scored in 127 patients with laryngeal squamous cell carcinomas. Results: Sixty-two cases had scored 3, sixty had scored 2, four had scored 1 and one case did not show any expression (48.8, 47.2, 3.1 and 0.8%, respectively). Overall survival was 73.9% at 24 months and 59.5% at 60 months. The disease-free survival was 77.2 and 75.1%, and the disease-specific survival was 79 and 67% at 24 and 60 months, respectively. Uni- and multivariate analysis identified that decreased immunoexpression of protein p63 was a statistically significant factor for the risk of recurrence and death by cancer. Conclusions: p63 expression was highly prevalent in laryngeal squamous cell carcinomas, and its underexpression was correlated with a worse prognosis. Copyright (C) 2010 S. Karger AG, Basel

Prognostic impact of diffuse large B-cell lymphoma subgroups in patients undergoing autologous SCT

A total of 53 patients aged 18-60 years with highintermediate or high-risk diffuse large B-cell lymphoma (DLBCL) were evaluated to analyze the impact of the cell of origin. Of 53 patients, 16 underwent autologous SCT (ASCT) in first remission and the rest received conventional chemotherapy. Immunohistochemistry was evaluated in 47 cases 17 were of germinal center (GC) origin and 30 were of non-GC origin. There was no survival difference between the two groups. Overall survival (OS) and disease-free survival (DFS) at 3 years were 93 and 83%, respectively, for the 14 patients who underwent ASCT. Their DFS was significantly better than that of patients who achieved CR but did not undergo ASCT. We conclude that ASCT is safe and improves the DFS of high-intermediate and high-risk DLBCL, regardless of the cell of origin. This observation should be confirmed in a larger study.