The impact of taxes on optimal portfolio choice : an Australian study

Taxes are an important component of investing that is commonly overlooked in both the literature and in practice. For example, many understand that taxes will reduce an investment’s return, but less understood is the risk-sharing nature of taxes that also reduces the investment’s risk. This thesis examines how taxes affect the optimal asset allocation and asset location decision in an Australian environment. It advances the model of Horan & Al Zaman (2008), improving the method by which the present value of tax liabilities are calculated, by using an after-tax risk-free discount rate, and incorporating any new or reduced tax liabilities generated into its expected risk and return estimates. The asset allocation problem is examined for a range of different scenarios using Australian parameters, including different risk aversion levels, personal marginal tax rates, investment horizons, borrowing premiums, high or low inflation environments, and different starting cost bases. The findings support the Horan & Al Zaman (2008) conclusion that equities should be held in the taxable account. In fact, these findings are strengthened with most of the efficient frontier maximising equity holdings in the taxable account instead of only half. Furthermore, these findings transfer to the Australian case, where it is found that taxed Australian investors should always invest into equities first through the taxable account before investing in super. However, untaxed Australian investors should invest their equity first through superannuation. With borrowings allowed in the taxable account (no borrowing premium), Australian taxed investors should hold 100% of the superannuation account in the risk-free asset, while undertaking leverage in the taxable account to achieve the desired risk-return. Introducing a borrowing premium decreases the likelihood of holding 100% of super in the risk-free asset for taxable investors. The findings also suggest that the higher the marginal tax rate, the higher the borrowing premium in order to overcome this effect. Finally, as the investor’s marginal tax rate increases, the overall allocation to equities should increase due to the increased risk and return sharing caused by taxation, and in order to achieve the same risk/return level as the lower taxation level, the investor must take on more equity exposure. The investment horizon has a minimal impact on the optimal allocation decision in the absence of factors such as mean reversion and human capital.

Retrofitting commercial office buildings for sustainability : tenants’ expectations and experiences

Introduction Buildings, which account for approximately half of all annual energy and greenhouse gas emissions, are an important target area for any strategy addressing climate change. Whilst new commercial buildings increasingly address sustainability considerations, incorporating green technology in the refurbishment process of older buildings is technically, financially and socially challenging. This research explores the expectations and experiences of commercial office building tenants, whose building was under-going green refurbishment. Methodology Semi-structured in-depth interviews with seven residents and neighbours of a large case-study building under-going green refurbishment in Melbourne, Australia. Built in 1979, the 7,008m² ‘B’ grade building consists of 11 upper levels of office accommodation, ground floor retail, and a basement area leased as a licensed restaurant. After refurbishment, which included the installation of chilled water pumps, solar water heating, waterless urinals, insulation, disabled toilets, and automatic dimming lights, it was expected that the environmental performance of the building would move from a non-existent zero ABGR (Australian Building Greenhouse Rating) star rating to 3.5 stars, with a 40% reduction in water consumption and 20% reduction in energy consumption. Interviews were transcribed, with responses analysed using a thematic approach, identifying categories, themes and patterns. Results Commercial property tenants are on a journey to sustainability - they are interested and willing to engage in discussions about sustainability initiatives, but the process, costs and benefits need to be clear. Critically, whilst sustainability was an essential and non-negotiable criterion in building selection for government and larger corporate tenants, sustainability was not yet a core business value for smaller organisations – whilst they could see it as an emerging issue, they wanted detailed cost-benefit analyses, pay-back calculations of proposed technologies and, ideally, wished they could trial the technology first-hand in some way. Although extremely interested in learning more, most participants reported relatively minimal knowledge of specific sustainability features, designs or products. In discussions about different sustainable technologies (e.g., waterless urinals, green-rated carpets), participants frequently commented that they knew little about the technology, had not heard of it or were not sure exactly how it worked. Whilst participants viewed sustainable commercial buildings as the future, they had varied expectations about the fate of existing older buildings – most felt that they would have to be retrofitted at some point to meet market expectations and predicted the emergence of a ‘non-sustainability discount’ for residing in a building without sustainable features. Discussion This research offers a beginning point for understanding the difficulty of integrating green technology in older commercial buildings. Tenants currently have limited understandings of technology and potential building performance outcomes, which ultimately could impede the implementation of sustainable initiatives in older buildings. Whilst the commercial property market is interested in learning about sustainability in the built environment, the findings highlight the importance of developing a strong business case, communication and transition plan for implementing sustainability retrofits in existing commercial buildings.

An analysis of holding cost impact on housing affordability in relation to midsized Greenfield residential property developments in South East Queensland

The position of housing demand and supply is not consistent. The Australian situation counters the experience demonstrated in many other parts of the world in the aftermath of the Global Financial Crisis, with residential housing prices proving particularly resilient. A seemingly inexorable housing demand remains a critical issue affecting the socio-economic landscape. Underpinned by high levels of population growth fuelled by immigration, and further buoyed by sustained historically low interest rates, increasing income levels, and increased government assistance for first home buyers, this strong housing demand level ensures problems related to housing affordability continue almost unabated. A significant, but less visible factor impacting housing affordability relates to holding costs. Although only one contributor in the housing affordability matrix, the nature and extent of holding cost impact requires elucidation: for example, the computation and methodology behind the calculation of holding costs varies widely - and in some instances completely ignored. In addition, ambiguity exists in terms of the inclusion of various elements that comprise holding costs, thereby affecting the assessment of their relative contribution. Such anomalies may be explained by considering that assessment is conducted over time in an ever-changing environment. A strong relationship with opportunity cost - in turn dependant inter alia upon prevailing inflation and / or interest rates - adds further complexity. By extending research in the general area of housing affordability, this thesis seeks to provide a detailed investigation of those elements related to holding costs specifically in the context of midsized (i.e. between 15-200 lots) greenfield residential property developments in South East Queensland. With the dimensions of holding costs and their influence over housing affordability determined, the null hypothesis H0 that holding costs are not passed on can be addressed. Arriving at these conclusions involves the development of robust economic and econometric models which seek to clarify the componentry impacts of holding cost elements. An explanatory sequential design research methodology has been adopted, whereby the compilation and analysis of quantitative data and the development of an economic model is informed by the subsequent collection and analysis of primarily qualitative data derived from surveying development related organisations. Ultimately, there are significant policy implications in relation to the framework used in Australian jurisdictions that promote, retain, or otherwise maximise, the opportunities for affordable housing.

The iatrogenic reflex and belief that repression can coercively suppress asymmetric coercive violence : does very robust action by the government decrease functional support for insurgents?

Non-state insurgent actors are too weak to compel powerful adversaries to their will, so they use violence to coerce. A principal objective is to grow and sustain violent resistance to the point that it either militarily challenges the state, or more commonly, generates unacceptable political costs. To survive, insurgents must shift popular support away from the state and to grow they must secure it. State actor policies and actions perceived as illegitimate and oppressive by the insurgent constituency can generate these shifts. A promising insurgent strategy is to attack states in ways that lead angry publics and leaders to discount the historically established risks and take flawed but popular decisions to use repressive measures. Such decisions may be enabled by a visceral belief in the power of coercion and selective use of examples of where robust measures have indeed suppressed resistance. To avoid such counterproductive behaviours the cases of apparent 'successful repression' must be understood. This thesis tests whether robust state action is correlated with reduced support for insurgents, analyses the causal mechanisms of such shifts and examines whether such reduction is because of compulsion or coercion? The approach is founded on prior research by the RAND Corporation which analysed the 30 insurgencies most recently resolved worldwide to determine factors of counterinsurgent success. This new study first re-analyses their data at a finer resolution with new queries that investigate the relationship between repression and insurgent active support. Having determined that, in general, repression does not correlate with decreased insurgent support, this study then analyses two cases in which the data suggests repression seems likely to be reducing insurgent support: the PKK in Turkey and the insurgency against the Vietnamese-sponsored regime after their ousting of the Khmer Rouge. It applies 'structured-focused' case analysis with questions partly built from the insurgency model of Leites and Wolf, who are associated with the advocacy of US robust means in Vietnam. This is thus a test of 'most difficult' cases using a 'least likely' test model. Nevertheless, the findings refute the deterrence argument of 'iron fist' advocates. Robust approaches may physically prevent effective support of insurgents but they do not coercively deter people from being willing to actively support the insurgency.

On being balanced in an unbalanced world

This paper examines the case of a procurement auction for a single project, in which the breakdown of the winning bid into its component items determines the value of payments subsequently made to bidder as the work progresses. Unbalanced bidding, or bid skewing, involves the uneven distribution of mark-up among the component items in such a way as to attempt to derive increased benefit to the unbalancer but without involving any change in the total bid. One form of unbalanced bidding for example, termed Front Loading (FL), is thought to be widespread in practice. This involves overpricing the work items that occur early in the project and underpricing the work items that occur later in the project in order to enhance the bidder's cash flow. Naturally, auctioners attempt to protect themselves from the effects of unbalancing—typically reserving the right to reject a bid that has been detected as unbalanced. As a result, models have been developed to both unbalance bids and detect unbalanced bids but virtually nothing is known of their use, success or otherwise. This is of particular concern for the detection methods as, without testing, there is no way of knowing the extent to which unbalanced bids are remaining undetected or balanced bids are being falsely detected as unbalanced. This paper reports on a simulation study aimed at demonstrating the likely effects of unbalanced bid detection models in a deterministic environment involving FL unbalancing in a Texas DOT detection setting, in which bids are deemed to be unbalanced if an item exceeds a maximum (or fails to reach a minimum) ‘cut-off’ value determined by the Texas method. A proportion of bids are automatically and maximally unbalanced over a long series of simulated contract projects and the profits and detection rates of both the balancers and unbalancers are compared. The results show that, as expected, the balanced bids are often incorrectly detected as unbalanced, with the rate of (mis)detection increasing with the proportion of FL bidders in the auction. It is also shown that, while the profit for balanced bidders remains the same irrespective of the number of FL bidders involved, the FL bidder's profit increases with the greater proportion of FL bidders present in the auction. Sensitivity tests show the results to be generally robust, with (mis)detection rates increasing further when there are fewer bidders in the auction and when more data are averaged to determine the baseline value, but being smaller or larger with increased cut-off values and increased cost and estimate variability depending on the number of FL bidders involved. The FL bidder's expected benefit from unbalancing, on the other hand, increases, when there are fewer bidders in the auction. It also increases when the cut-off rate and discount rate is increased, when there is less variability in the costs and their estimates, and when less data are used in setting the baseline values.

Embedded tax liabilities and portfolio choice

his study presents an improved method of dealing with embedded tax liabilities in portfolio choice. We argue that using a risk-free discount rate is appropriate for calculating the present value of future tax liabilities. Supportive of recent research, our results found a taxation-induced preference of holding equities over bonds, and a location preference of holding equities in the taxable account and bonds in retirement accounts. These important findings contrast with traditional investment advice which suggests a greater capacity for risk in retirement accounts.

Are consumers fooled by discounts? An experimental test in a consumer search environment

In this article, we investigate experimentally whether people search optimally and how price promotions influence search behaviour. We implement a sequential search task with exogenous price dispersion in a baseline treatment and introduce discounts in two experimental treatments. We find that search behaviour is roughly consistent with optimal search but also observe some discount biases. If subjects do not know in advance where discounts are offered, the purchase probability is increased by 19 percentage points in shops with discounts, even after controlling for the benefit of the discount and for risk preferences. If consumers know in advance where discounts are given, then the bias is only weakly significant and much smaller (7 percentage points).

Discounts and consumer search behavior : the role of framing

This paper studies the pure framing effect of price discounts, focusing on its impact on consumer search behavior. In a simple two-shop search experiment, we compare search behavior in base treatments (where both shops post net prices without discounts) to discount treatments (where either the first shop or the second shop posts gross prices with separate discount offers, keeping the net prices constant). Although the objective search problems are identical across treatments, subjects search less in discount frames, irrespective where the discount is offered. There is evidence showing that subjects only base their decisions on salient characteristics of the situation rather than on the objective price information.

University students and their working pathways

This paper examines the working pathways of young full-time university students in Australia. It draws on some of the data from a three year research project funded by the Australian Research Council. The project was called ‘Changing the way that Australian enter the workforce: Part-time working careers of young full-time school and tertiary students’. The project had three industry partners: Service Skills Australia (the Industry Skills Council for the service industries), McDonalds Australia (a fast food company) and The Reject Shop (a discount chain). Much of the research took place inside companies, in schools and with national stakeholders (eg Smith & Patton, 2011; Smith & Patton, 2013), but this paper reports on the research that took place with students in universities. In the project we were keen to explore the notion of part-time working while studying as a medium-term career, especially in the context of the need for career flexibility and adaptability (Poehnell & Amundson, 2002).

Do prediction markets produce well-calibrated probability forecasts?

This article presents new theoretical and empirical evidence on the forecasting ability of prediction markets. We develop a model that predicts that the time until expiration of a prediction market should negatively affect the accuracy of prices as a forecasting tool in the direction of a ‘favourite/longshot bias’. That is, high-likelihood events are underpriced, and low-likelihood events are over-priced. We confirm this result using a large data set of prediction market transaction prices. Prediction markets are reasonably well calibrated when time to expiration is relatively short, but prices are significantly biased for events farther in the future. When time value of money is considered, the miscalibration can be exploited to earn excess returns only when the trader has a relatively low discount rate.

The impact of corporate governance on private placements in Australia

In private placement transactions, issuing firms sell a block of securities to just a small group of investors at a discounted price. Non-participating shareholders suffer from ownership dilution and lose the opportunity to receive the discount. This thesis provides the first evidence on whether and how corporate governance can protect non-participating shareholders' interests. Results from an examination of 329 private placements issued by the top 250 Australian firms between 2002 and 2009 demonstrate that firms with higher governance quality are more likely to issue a share purchase plan (SPP) along with the private placement, thus providing greater protection to non-participating shareholders' interests.

Assessing the property market impact of stigma removal : high voltage overhead transmission lines removal in Wellington, NZ

This thesis advances the understanding of the impact of stigma on property values. A case study in Wellington, New Zealand, enabled hedonic modelling and an empirical analysis to determine the impact of the stigma from the high voltage transmission line structure and how long the stigma remained after removal. The results reveal a substantial difference between the discount applied to individual properties while the structure is in place, as compared to the overall increase in neighbourhood value once the structure, which created the stigma, is removed.

Integrating understandability in the evaluation of consumer health search engines

In this paper we propose a method that integrates the no- tion of understandability, as a factor of document relevance, into the evaluation of information retrieval systems for con- sumer health search. We consider the gain-discount evaluation framework (RBP, nDCG, ERR) and propose two understandability-based variants (uRBP) of rank biased precision, characterised by an estimation of understandability based on document readability and by different models of how readability influences user understanding of document content. The proposed uRBP measures are empirically contrasted to RBP by comparing system rankings obtained with each measure. The findings suggest that considering understandability along with topicality in the evaluation of in- formation retrieval systems lead to different claims about systems effectiveness than considering topicality alone.

Making decisions about antibiotic use in the Australian primary healthcare sector

Introduction Australia is contributing to the global problem of antimicrobial resistance with one of the highest rates of antibiotic use amongst OECD countries. Data from the Australian primary healthcare sector suggests unnecessary antibiotics were prescribed for conditions that will resolve without it. If left unchecked, this will result in more resistant micro-organisms, against which antibiotics will be useless. There is a lack of understanding about what is influencing decisions to use antibiotics – what factors influences general practitioners (GPs) to prescribe antibiotics, consumers to seek antibiotics, and pharmacists to fill old antibiotic prescriptions? It is also not clear how these individuals trade-off between the possible benefits that antibiotics may provide in the immediate/short term, against the longer term societal risk of antimicrobial resistance. Method This project will investigate (a) what factors drive decisions to use antibiotics for GPs, pharmacists and consumers, and (b) how these individuals discount the future. Factors will be gleaned from published literature and from a qualitative phase using semi-structured interviews, to inform the development of Discrete Choice Experiments (DCEs). Three DCEs will be constructed – one for each group of interest – to allow investigation of which factors are more important in influencing (a) GPs to prescribe antibiotics, (b) consumers to seek antibiotics, and (c) pharmacists to fill legally valid but old or repeat prescriptions of antibiotics. Regression analysis will be conducted to understand the relative importance of these factors. A Time Trade Off exercise will be developed to investigate how these individuals discount the future, and whether GPs and pharmacists display the same extent of discounting the future, as consumers. Expected Results Findings from the DCEs will provide an insight into which factors are more important in driving decision making in antibiotic use for GPs, pharmacists and consumers. Findings from the Time Trade Off exercise will show what individuals are willing to trade for preserving the miracle of antibiotics. Conclusion The emergence of antibiotic resistance is inevitable. This research will expand on what is currently known about influencing desired behaviour change in antibiotic use, in the fight against antibiotic resistance. Real World Implications Research findings will contribute to existing national programs to bring about a reduction in inappropriate use of antibiotic in Australia. Specifically, influencing (1) how key messages and public health campaigns are crafted to increase health literacy, and (2) clinical education and empowerment of GPs and pharmacists to play a more responsive role as stewards of antibiotic use in the community.

How does commuting behavior change due to incentives? An empirical study of the Beijing Subway System

This study examines the impact of incentives on commuters' travel behavior based upon a questionnaire survey conducted with respect to the Beijing Subway System. Overall, we find that offering incentives to commuters, particularly fast food restaurant-related services and reduced ticket fares, has a positive influence on avoiding the morning rush hour. Furthermore, by using an interaction analysis, we discover that a flexible work schedule has an impact on commuters' behavior and the efficiency of the subway system. Finally, we recommend two possible policies to maximize the utility of the subway system and to reduce congestion at the peak of morning service: (1) a set of incentives that includes free wireless internet service with a coupon for breakfast and a discount on ticket fares before the morning peak, and; (2) the introduction of a flexible work schedule.