Associação entre hipertensão arterial e excesso de peso em adultos, Belém, Pará, 2005

FUNDAMENTO: A hipertensão arterial constitui um grave problema de saúde pública, atingindo 20% a 25% da população adulta mundial e 12% a 35% da população brasileira. OBJETIVO: Avaliar associação entre hipertensão arterial e excesso de peso. MÉTODOS: Estudo transversal desenvolvido em 2005, com uma amostra probabilística da população >18 anos de Belém (PA), pelo SIMTEL (monitoramento de doenças crônicas por telefone). Considerou-se como variável desfecho: hipertensão; como variável explanatória: excesso de peso; como variáveis de confusão: idade, escolaridade e características de estilo de vida. As variáveis associadas com hipertensão arterial foram analisadas por regressão logística para cálculo de risco. RESULTADOS: A hipertensão arterial atingiu 16,2% dos homens e 18,3% das mulheres, e o excesso de peso, 49,3% e 34,0%, respectivamente. A prevalência de hipertensão arterial se associou diretamente com idade e com excesso de peso em ambos os sexos. Para os homens, se associou com consumo de frutas e hortaliças e baixo consumo de feijão; para as mulheres, com estado civil viúva ou separada e, inversamente, com escolaridade. O risco de hipertensão arterial aumentou com o peso em ambos os sexos (p<0,001), sendo na obesidade 6,33 vezes maior para os homens e 3,33 para as mulheres, comparativamente ao peso normal. CONCLUSÃO: O excesso de peso se associou com maior prevalência de hipertensão arterial, porém variáveis como idade, escolaridade e consumo alimentar interferem nessa associação, de modo a configurar contextos favoráveis à diminuição ou ao aumento desse risco.

Comparação entre o Disease Activity Score-28 e o Juvenile Arthritis Disease Activity Score na artrite idiopática juvenil

Introduction: the assessment of the activity of rheumatoid arthritis and juvenile idiopathic arthritis is made by means of different tools, respectively DAS-28 and JADAS.Objective: To compare DAS-28 and JADAS with scores of 71, 27 and 10 joint counts in juvenile idiopathic arthritis.Method: A secondary analysis of a phase III placebo-controlled trial, testing safety and efficacy of abatacept was conducted in 8 patients with 178 assessment visits. Joint count scores for active and limited joints, physician's and parents'global assessment by 0-10 cm Visual Analog Scale, and erythrocyte sedimentation rate normalized to 0-10 scale, in all visits. The comparison among the activity indices in different observations was made through Anova or adjusted gamma model. The paired observations between DAS-28 and JADAS 71, 27 and 10, respectively, were analyzed by linear regression.Results: There were significant differences among individual measures, except for ESR, in the first four months of biological treatment, when five of the eight patients reached ACR-Pedi 30, with improvement. The indices of DAS-28, JADAS 71, 27 and 10 also showed significant difference during follow-up. Linear regression adjusted model between DAS-28 and JADAS resulted in mathematical formulas for conversion: [DAS-28 = 0.0709 (JADAS 71) + 1.267] (R-2 = 0.49); [DAS-28 = 0.084 (JADAS 27) + 1.7404] (R-2 = 0.47) and [DAS-28 = 0.1129 (JADAS-10) + 1.5748] (R-2 = 0.50).Conclusion: The conversion of scores of DAS-28 and JADAS 71, 27 and 10 for this mathematical model would allow equivalent application of both in adolescents with arthritis. (C) 2014 Elsevier Editora Ltda. All rights reserved.

Long-Term Prospective Study of the Influence of Estrone Levels on Events in Postmenopausal Women with or at High Risk for Coronary Artery Disease

Background. The link between endogenous estrogen, coronary artery disease (CAD), and death in postmenopausal women is uncertain. We analyzed the association between death and blood levels of estrone in postmenopausal women with known coronary artery disease (CAD) or with a high-risk factor score for CAD. Methods. 251 postmenopausal women age 50-90 years not on estrogen therapy. Fasting blood for estrone and heart disease risk factors were collected at baseline. Women were grouped according to their estrone levels (<15 and >= 15 pg/mL). Fatal events were recorded after 5.8 perpendicular to 1.4 years of followup. Results. The Kaplan-Meier survival curve showed a significant trend (P = 0.039) of greater all-cause mortality in women with low estrone levels (< 15 pg/mL). Cox multivariate regression analysis model adjusted for body mass index, diabetes, dyslipidemia, family history, and estrone showed estrone (OR = 0.45; P = 0.038) as the only independent variable for all-cause mortality. Multivariate regression model adjusted for age, body mass index, hypertension, diabetes, dyslipidemia, family history, and estrone showed that only age (OR = 1.06; P = 0.017) was an independent predictor of all-cause mortality. Conclusions. Postmenopausal women with known CAD or with a high-risk factor score for CAD and low estrone levels (< 15 pg/mL) had increased all-cause mortality.

On Time Series Analysis of Public Health and Biomedical Data

A time series is a sequence of observations made over time. Examples in public health include daily ozone concentrations, weekly admissions to an emergency department or annual expenditures on health care in the United States. Time series models are used to describe the dependence of the response at each time on predictor variables including covariates and possibly previous values in the series. Time series methods are necessary to account for the correlation among repeated responses over time. This paper gives an overview of time series ideas and methods used in public health research.

Physical properties, mineral and chemical compositions, and accumulation rates of Holocene and Upper Pleistocene bottom sediments from the Sea of Okhotsk

Mineral and chemical compositions and physical properties of diatomaceous clayey-siliceous sediments from the Sea of Okhotsk are studied. Accumulation rates of silica are determined. Their compositional model based on silica content is similar to that of Late Jurassic and Olenekian-Middle Anisian cherts from the Sikhote Alin region. Thickness of Holocene siliceous unit and accumulation rates of siliceous deposits depended on bioproductivity in the upper water layer and seafloor topography. Accumulation rates of amorphous SiO2 (0.05-5.7 g/cm**2/ka) and free SiO2 (0.5-11.6 g/cm**2/ka) are minimal on seamounts and maximal in depressions near foothills. These values match accumulation rates of free SiO2 in Triassic and Late Jurassic basins of the Sikhote Alin region (0.33-3 g/cm**2/ka). Comparison of composition and accumulation rates of silica shows that Triassic and Late Jurassic siliceous sequences of Sikhote Alin could accumulate in a marginal marine basin near a continent.

Sobrecarga de cuidadores familiares de idosos em cuidados paliativos

O adoecimento de um membro familiar costuma acarretar inúmeras alterações em toda a estrutura e dinâmica familiar. Com a progressão e o agravamento da doença, quando a pessoa se encontra sem possibilidade de tratamento modificador da doença, aumenta o sofrimento tanto da pessoa adoecida quanto de sua família. O cuidador familiar de pessoas idosas em cuidados paliativos sofre junto ao enfermo, podendo enfrentar sobrecarga física, emocional e social decorrente da tarefa de cuidar e da possibilidade da morte. Entretanto, são escassos os estudos que avaliam a sobrecarga desta população. O objetivo deste estudo é identificar e analisar a percepção de sobrecarga por parte do cuidador familiar de idosos em cuidados paliativos. Trata-se de uma pesquisa do tipo transversal, exploratório, de metodologia quantitativa, não probabilística, com uma casuística total composta por 100 pessoas. Essa casuística foi estratificada de acordo com escore obtido por meio da aplicação do protocolo Karnofsky Performance Scale (KPS) com os idosos (com 60 anos ou acima) em cuidados paliativos oncológicos: um grupo com 25 cuidadores familiares de idosos com KPS abaixo de 40%; um grupo com 25 cuidadores de idosos em cuidados paliativos oncológicos com KPS de 70%, 60% ou 50%; um grupo controle com 50 cuidadores familiares de idosos em cuidados paliativos oncológicos, com KPS maior ou igual a 80%. Durante a coleta de dados, além do KPS, foram aplicados o questionário de caracterização clínica e sociodemográfica e os protocolos: Questionário de Classificação Socioeconômica Brasil e o Caregiver Burden Scale (CBScale), validado no Brasil. Para análise dos dados, foi realizada estatística descritiva e as comparações com os grupos foram feitas por meio do Teste Exato de Fisher e de um modelo de regressão quantílica. As análises foram feitas pelo software SAS 9.0 e Stata versão 13. Os resultados indicaram que os cuidadores familiares são, em sua maioria, mulheres, filhas ou esposas, de meia idade a idade mais avançada, predominantemente, na faixa etária de 56 a 71 anos, com baixa escolaridade, pertencentes a classes sociais C e que não realizam nenhuma atividade remunerada. Os maiores índices de sobrecarga foram percebidos em cuidadores do sexo feminino e em cuidadores de idosos os quais apresentam menores escores relativos à capacidade funcional (avaliados pelo KPS). Conclui-se que o agravamento da doença, o declínio funcional do idoso e a possibilidade da sua morte mais próxima fazem aumentar a sobrecarga dos cuidadores, com impactos na sua saúde e qualidade de vida, o que indica a necessidade de oferecimento de serviços de apoio a essa população o mais precocemente possível

Disorders of breathing and continence have a stronger association with back pain than obesity and physical activity

Although obesity and physical activity have been argued to predict back pain, these factors are also related to incontinence and breathing difficulties. Breathing and continence mechanisms may interfere with the physiology of spinal control, and may provide a link to back pain. The aim of this study was to establish the association between back pain and disorders of continence and respiration in women. We conducted a cross-sectional analysis of self-report, postal survey data from the Australian Longitudinal Study on Women's Health. We used multinomial logistic regression to model four levels of back pain in relation to both the traditional risk factors of body mass index and activity level, and the potential risk factors of incontinence, breathing difficulties, and allergy. A total of 38 050 women were included from three age-cohorts. When incontinence and breathing difficulties were considered, obesity and physical activity were not consistently associated with back pain. In contrast, odds ratios (OR) for often having back pain were higher for women often having incontinence compared to women without incontinence (OR were 2.5, 2.3 and 2.3 for young, mid-age! and older women, respectively). Similarly, mid-aged and older women had higher odds of having back pain often when they experienced breathing difficulties often compared to women with no breathing problems (OR of 2.0 and 1.9, respectively). Unlike obesity and physical activity, disorders of continence and respiration were strongly related to frequent back pain. This relationship may be explained by physiological limitations of co-ordination of postural, respiratory and continence functions of trunk muscles.

Application of MARS for the Construction of Nonparametric Models

2000 Mathematics Subject Classification: 62G08, 62P30.

Tree Mortality following Prescribed Fire and a Storm Surge Event in Slash Pine (Pinus elliottii var. densa) Forests in the Florida Keys, USA

In fire-dependent forests, managers are interested in predicting the consequences of prescribed burning on postfire tree mortality. We examined the effects of prescribed fire on tree mortality in Florida Keys pine forests, using a factorial design with understory type, season, and year of burn as factors. We also used logistic regression to model the effects of burn season, fire severity, and tree dimensions on individual tree mortality. Despite limited statistical power due to problems in carrying out the full suite of planned experimental burns, associations with tree and fire variables were observed. Post-fire pine tree mortality was negatively correlated with tree size and positively correlated with char height and percent crown scorch. Unlike post-fire mortality, tree mortality associated with storm surge from Hurricane Wilma was greater in the large size classes. Due to their influence on population structure and fuel dynamics, the size-selective mortality patterns following fire and storm surge have practical importance for using fire as a management tool in Florida Keys pinelands in the future, particularly when the threats to their continued existence from tropical storms and sea level rise are expected to increase.

A dinâmica da taxa de câmbio no Brasil face às operações swap (2002-2015)

This dissertation investigates, based on the Post-Keynesian theory and on its concept of monetary economy of production, the exchange rate behavior of the Brazilian Real in the presence of Brazilian Central Bank's interventions by means of the so-called swap transactions over 2002-2015. Initially, the work analyzes the essential properties of an open monetary economy of production and, thereafter, it presents the basic propositions of the Post-Keynesian view on the exchange rate determination, highlighting the properties of foreign exchange markets and the peculiarities of the Brazilian position into the international monetary and financial system. The research, thereby, accounts for the various segments of the Brazilian foreign exchange market. To accomplish its purpose, we first do a literature review of the Post-Keynesian literature about the topic. Then, we undertake empirical exams of the exchange rate determination using two statistical methods. On the one hand, to measure the volatility of exchange rate, we estimate Auto-regressive Conditional Heteroscedastic (ARCH) and Generalized Auto-regressive Conditional Heteroscedastic (GARCH) models. On the other hand, to measure the variance of the exchange rate in relation to real, financial variables, and the swaps, we estimate a Vector Auto-regression (VAR) model. Both experiments are performed for the nominal and real effective exchange rates. The results show that the swaps respond to exchange rate movements, trying to offset its volatility. This reveals that the exchange rate is, at least in a certain magnitude, sensitive to swaps transactions conducted by the Central Bank. In addition, another empirical result is that the real effective exchange rate responds more to the swaps auctions than the nominal rate.

The Mass of Kepler-93b and The Composition of Terrestrial Planets

Kepler-93b is a 1.478 ± 0.019 R ⊕ planet with a4.7 day period around a bright (V = 10.2), astroseismicallycharacterized host star with a mass of 0.911 ± 0.033 M⊙ and a radius of 0.919 ± 0.011 R⊙. Based on 86 radial velocity observations obtainedwith the HARPS-N spectrograph on the Telescopio Nazionale Galileo and 32archival Keck/HIRES observations, we present a precise mass estimate of4.02 ± 0.68 M ⊕. The corresponding high densityof 6.88 ± 1.18 g cm-3 is consistent with a rockycomposition of primarily iron and magnesium silicate. We compareKepler-93b to other dense planets with well-constrained parameters andfind that between 1 and 6 M ⊕, all dense planetsincluding the Earth and Venus are well-described by the same fixed ratioof iron to magnesium silicate. There are as of yet no examples of suchplanets with masses >6 M ⊕. All known planets inthis mass regime have lower densities requiring significant fractions ofvolatiles or H/He gas. We also constrain the mass and period of theouter companion in the Kepler-93 system from the long-term radialvelocity trend and archival adaptive optics images. As the sample ofdense planets with well-constrained masses and radii continues to grow,we will be able to test whether the fixed compositional model found forthe seven dense planets considered in this paper extends to the fullpopulation of 1-6 M ⊕ planets.Based on observations made with the Italian Telescopio Nazionale Galileo(TNG) operated on the island of La Palma by the Fundación GalileoGalilei of the INAF (Istituto Nazionale di Astrofisica) at the SpanishObservatorio del Roque de los Muchachos of the Instituto de Astrofisicade Canarias.

Production efficiency in catfish (Clarias gariepinus) Burchell, 1822 in Cross River State , Nigeria

In the study, the production efficiency of catfish in Cross River State was determined. Data was obtained from 120 fish farmers were randomly selected from Cross River Agricultural Zones, using a multistage random sampling technique. Multiple regression analysis model was the main tool of data analysis where different functions were tried. The results indicated that Cobb-Douglass production function had the best fit in explaining the relationship between output of catfish and inputs used, the coefficient of multiple determinant (R2 = 0.61) indicates that sixtyone percent of the variability in output of catfish is explained by the independent variables. The results also indicate that farmers’ educational level positively influence their level of efficiency in catfish production in the study area. The F-value of 16.427 indicates the overall significance of the model at 1 percent level, indicating that there is a significant linear relationship between the independent variables taken together and the yield of catfish produced in Cross River State. The marginal value products of fish pond size (farm size), labour and feed (diet) were N67.50, N 178.13 and N 728.00 respectively, while allocative efficiency for (farm size), labour and feed (diet) were (0.09 over utilized, 2.85 under utilized and 0.99 over utilized), respectively, there existed allocative in-efficiency, there is a high potential for catfish farmers to increase their yields and income. Based on the findings of this study, it is recommended that fish farmers should expand fish farms, improving on production efficiency and adopting new technologies. Regular awareness campaign about new technologies in fish farming should be embarked by extension agents to make fish farmers know the importance of adopting new technologies. KEYWORDS: Production efficiency, Catfish, Cobb-Douglass, Production function, Cross River State

Evaluation of the risk factors contributing to the African swine fever occurrence in Sardinia, Italy

This study assesses the relation between hypothesized risk factors and African swine fever virus (ASFV) distribution in Sardinia (Italy) after the beginning of the eradication program in 1993, using a Bayesian multivariable logistic regression mixed model. Results indicate that the probability of ASFV occurrence in Sardinia was associated to particular socio-cultural, productive and economical factors found in the region, particularly to large number of confined (i.e., closed) farms (most of them backyard), high road density, high mean altitude, large number of open fattening farms, and large number of pigs per commune. Conversely, large proportion of open farms with at least one census and large proportion of open farms per commune, were found to be protective factors for ASFV. Results suggest that basic preventive and control strategies, such as yearly census or registration of the pigs per farm and better control of the public lands where pigs are usually raised, together with endanced effords of outreach and communication with pig producers should help in the success of the eradication program for ASF in the Island. Methods and results presented here will inform decision making to better control and eradicate ASF in Sardinia and in all those areas with similar management and epidemiological conditions.

Otter (Lutra lutra) distribution modeling at two resolution scales suited to conservation planning in the Iberian Peninsula

We used the results of the Spanish Otter Survey of 1994–1996, a Geographic Information System and stepwise multiple logistic regression to model otter presence/absence data in the continental Spanish UTM 10 10-km squares. Geographic situation, indicators of human activity such as highways and major urban centers, and environmental variables related with productivity, water availability, altitude, and environmental energy were included in a logistic model that correctly classified about 73% of otter presences and absences. We extrapolated the model to the adjacent territory of Portugal, and increased the model’s spatial resolution by extrapolating it to 1 1-km squares in the whole Iberian Peninsula. The model turned out to be rather flexible, predicting, for instance, the species to be very restricted to the courses of rivers in some areas, and more widespread in others. This allowed us to determine areas where otter populations may be more vulnerable to habitat changes or harmful human interventions. # 2003 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

An alternative method for dating unknown tephras based on a segmented regression model

In CoDaWork’05, we presented an application of discriminant function analysis (DFA) to 4 different compositional datasets and modelled the first canonical variable using a segmented regression model solely based on an observation about the scatter plots. In this paper, multiple linear regressions are applied to different datasets to confirm the validity of our proposed model. In addition to dating the unknown tephras by calibration as discussed previously, another method of mapping the unknown tephras into samples of the reference set or missing samples in between consecutive reference samples is proposed. The application of these methodologies is demonstrated with both simulated and real datasets. This new proposed methodology provides an alternative, more acceptable approach for geologists as their focus is on mapping the unknown tephra with relevant eruptive events rather than estimating the age of unknown tephra. Kew words: Tephrochronology; Segmented regression