Peach brown rot incidence related to pathogen infection at different stages of fruit development in an organic peach production system

Brown rot, caused by Monilinia fructicola, is the most widespread disease for organic peach production systems in Brazil. The objective of this study was to determine the favorable periods for latent infection by M. fructicola in organic systems. The field experiment was carried out during 2006, 2007 and 2008 using the cultivar Aurora. After thinning fruits were bagged using white paraffin bags, and the treatments were performed by removing the bags and exposing the fruit for four days to the natural infection during each of seven fruit stages from pit hardening to harvest. Throughout the entire growing season, the conidial density and the weather variables were measured and related to the disease incidence using multiple regression analyses. At the fourth day after harvest in each season, the cumulative disease incidence was assessed, and it ranged from 40 to 98%. The incidence of brown rot on fruit that were exposed during the embryo growing stage was lower than that of unbagged fruit throughout the entire season in 2006 and 2008. The relative humidity and the conidia density were significantly correlated to disease incidence. Based on our results, M. fructicola can infect peaches during any stage of fruit development, and control of the disease must be revised to account for organic peach production systems. (C) 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Etiology of childhood diarrhea in the northeast of Brazil: significant emergent diarrheal pathogens

In a study conducted in Joao Pessoa, northeast of Brazil, 2344 Escherichia coli isolated from 290 infants with diarrhea and 290 healthy matched controls were analyzed for virulence traits. Enteroaggregative E. coli (EAEC) was the most prevalent pathogen associated to acute diarrhea. Based on the results of colony blot hybridization, serotyping, and HEp-2 cell adherence assays, strains were separated in categories as typical enteropathogenic E. coli (EPEC) (1.7%), atypical EPEC (a-EPEC) (9.3%), EAEC (25%), enterotoxigenic E. coli (10%), and enteroinvasive E. coli (EIEC) (1.4%). No enterohemorrhagic E. coli strains were isolated. Other enteropathogens were found, including Salmonella (7.9%), Shigella spp. (4.1%), thermophilic Campylobacter spp. (2.4%), Giardia lamblia (9.3%), and Entamoeba histolytica (5.8%). All enteropathogens were associated with diarrhea (P < 0.01). However, the association was lower for EPEC and EIEC (P < 0.03). Different pathogens associated with diarrhea may have been changing in Brazil where EAEC and a-EPEC seem to be the most prevalent pathogens among them. (C) 2010 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Fluctuations in heroin purity and the incidence of fatal heroin overdose

In order to determine the role played by heroin purity in fatal heroin overdoses, time series analyses were conducted on the purity of street heroin seizures in south western Sydney and overdose fatalities in that region. A total of 322 heroin samples were analysed in fortnightly periods between February 1993 to January 1995. A total of 61 overdose deaths occurred in the region in the study period. Cross correlation plots revealed a significant correlation of 0.57 at time lag zero between mean purity of heroin samples per fortnight and number of overdose fatalities. Similarly, there was a significant correlation of 0.50 at time lag zero between the highest heroin purity per fortnight and number of overdose fatalities. The correlation between range of heroin purity and number of deaths per fortnight was 0.40. A simultaneous multiple regression on scores adjusted for first order correlation indicated both the mean level of heroin purity and the range of heroin purity were independent predictors of the number of deaths per fortnight. The results indicate that the occurrence of overdose fatalities was moderately associated with both the average heroin purity and the range of heroin purity over the study period. (C) 1999 Elsevier Science Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Trends in the incidence, severity, and short-term outcome of stroke in Perth, Western Australia

Background and Purpose-This report describes trends in the key indices of cerebrovascular disease over 6 years from the end of the 1980s in a geographically defined segment of the city of Perth, Western Australia. Methods-Identical methods were used to find and assess all cases of suspected stroke in a population of approximately 134 000 residents in a triangular area of the northern suburbs of Perth. Case fatality was measured as vital status at 28 days after the onset of symptoms. Data for first-ever strokes and for all strokes for equivalent periods of 12 months in 1989-1990 and 1995-1996 were compared by age-standardized rates and proportions and Poisson regression. Results-There were 355 strokes in 328 patients and 251 first-ever strokes (71%) for 1989-1990 and 290 events in 281 patients and 213 first-ever strokes (73%) for 1995-1996. In Poisson models including age and period, overall trends in the incidence of both first-ever strokes (rate ratio = 0.75; 95% confidence limits, 0.63, 0.90) and all strokes (rate ratio = 0.73; 95% confidence limits, 0.62, 0.85) were obviously significant, but only the changes in men were independently significant. Case fatality did not change, and the balance between hemorrhagic and occlusive strokes in 1995-1996 was almost indistinguishable from that observed in 1989-1990. Conclusions-Our results, which are the only longitudinal population-based data available for Australia for key indices of stroke, suggest that it is a change in the frequency of stroke, rather than its outcome, that is chiefly responsible nationally for the fall in mortality from cerebrovascular disease.

High HIV incidence and prevalence among young women in rural South Africa: Developing a cohort for intervention trials

Objective: To measure prevalence and model incidence of HIV infection. Setting: 2013 consecutive pregnant women attending public sector antenatal clinics in 1997 in Hlabisa health district, South Africa. Historical seroprevalence data, 1992-1995. Methods: Serum remaining from syphilis testing was tested anonymously for antibodies to HIV to determine seroprevalence. Two models, allowing for differential mortality between HIV-positive and HIV-negative people, were used. The first used serial seroprevalence data to estimate trends in annual incidence. The second, a maximum likelihood model, took account of changing force of infection and age-dependent risk of infection, to estimate age-specific HIV incidence in 1997. Multiple logistic regression provided adjusted odds ratios (OR) for risk factors for prevalent HIV infection. Results: Estimated annual HIV incidence increased from 4% in 1992/1993 to 10% in 1996/1997. In 1997, highest age-specific incidence was 16% among women aged between 20 and 24 years. in 1997, overall prevalence was 26% (95% confidence interval [CI], 24%-28%) and at 34% was highest among women aged between 20 and 24 years. Young age (<30 years; odds ratio [OR], 2.1; p = .001), unmarried status (OR 2.2; p = .001) and living in less remote parts of the district (OR 1.5; p = .002) were associated with HIV prevalence in univariate analysis. Associations were less strong in multivariate analysis. Partner's migration status was not associated with HIV infection. Substantial heterogeneity of HIV prevalence by clinic was observed (range 17%-31%; test for trend, p = .001). Conclusions: This community is experiencing an explosive HIV epidemic. Young, single women in the more developed parts of the district would form an appropriate cohort to test, and benefit from, interventions such as vaginal microbicides and HIV vaccines.

A model for predicting the future incidence of coronary heart disease within percentiles of coronary heart disease risk

Background We present a method (The CHD Prevention Model) for modelling the incidence of fatal and nonfatal coronary heart disease (CHD) within various CHD risk percentiles of an adult population. The model provides a relatively simple tool for lifetime risk prediction for subgroups within a population. It allows an estimation of the absolute primary CHD risk in different populations and will help identify subgroups of the adult population where primary CHD prevention is most appropriate and cost-effective. Methods The CHD risk distribution within the Australian population was modelled, based on the prevalence of CHD risk, individual estimates of integrated CHD risk, and current CHD mortality rates. Predicted incidence of first fatal and nonfatal myocardial infarction within CHD risk strata of the Australian population was determined. Results Approximately 25% of CHD deaths were predicted to occur amongst those in the top 10 percentiles of integrated CHD risk, regardless of age group or gender. It was found that while all causes survival did not differ markedly between percentiles of CHD risk before the ages of around 50-60, event-free survival began visibly to differ about 5 years earlier. Conclusions The CHD Prevention Model provides a means of predicting future CHD incidence amongst various strata of integrated CHD risk within an adult population. It has significant application both in individual risk counselling and in the identification of subgroups of the population where drug therapy to reduce CHD risk is most cost-effective. J Cardiovasc Risk 8:31-37 (C) 2001 Lippincott Williams & Wilkins.

Estimating HIV incidence rates from age prevalence data in epidemic situations

We present a method of estimating HIV incidence rates in epidemic situations from data on age-specific prevalence and changes in the overall prevalence over time. The method is applied to women attending antenatal clinics in Hlabisa, a rural district of KwaZulu/Natal, South Africa, where transmission of HIV is overwhelmingly through heterosexual contact. A model which gives age-specific prevalence rates in the presence of a progressing epidemic is fitted to prevalence data for 1998 using maximum likelihood methods and used to derive the age-specific incidence. Error estimates are obtained using a Monte Carlo procedure. Although the method is quite general some simplifying assumptions are made concerning the form of the risk function and sensitivity analyses are performed to explore the importance of these assumptions. The analysis shows that in 1998 the annual incidence of infection per susceptible woman increased from 5.4 per cent (3.3-8.5 per cent; here and elsewhere ranges give 95 per cent confidence limits) at age 15 years to 24.5 per cent (20.6-29.1 per cent) at age 22 years and declined to 1.3 per cent (0.5-2.9 per cent) at age 50 years; standardized to a uniform age distribution, the overall incidence per susceptible woman aged 15 to 59 was 11.4 per cent (10.0-13.1 per cent); per women in the population it was 8.4 per cent (7.3-9.5 per cent). Standardized to the age distribution of the female population the average incidence per woman was 9.6 per cent (8.4-11.0 per cent); standardized to the age distribution of women attending antenatal clinics, it was 11.3 per cent (9.8-13.3 per cent). The estimated incidence depends on the values used for the epidemic growth rate and the AIDS related mortality. To ensure that, for this population, errors in these two parameters change the age specific estimates of the annual incidence by less than the standard deviation of the estimates of the age specific incidence, the AIDS related mortality should be known to within +/-50 per cent and the epidemic growth rate to within +/-25 per cent, both of which conditions are met. In the absence of cohort studies to measure the incidence of HIV infection directly, useful estimates of the age-specific incidence can be obtained from cross-sectional, age-specific prevalence data and repeat cross-sectional data on the overall prevalence of HIV infection. Several assumptions were made because of the lack of data but sensitivity analyses show that they are unlikely to affect the overall estimates significantly. These estimates are important in assessing the magnitude of the public health problem, for designing vaccine trials and for evaluating the impact of interventions. Copyright (C) 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

The incidence of schizophrenia: A systematic review

There has been a debate on whether or not the incidence of schizophrenia varies across time and place. In order to optimise the evidence upon which this debate is based, we have undertaken a systematicsystematic review of the literature. In this paper we provide an overview of the methods of the review and a preliminary analysis of the studies identified to date. Electronic databases (Medline, Psychlnfo, Embase, LILAC) were systematically searched for articles published between January 1965 and December 2001. The search terms were: (schizo* OR psycho*)AND (incidence OR prevalence). References were also identified from review articles, reference list and by writing to authors. To date we have identified 137 papers drawn from 33 nations. 37 papers in language other than English await translation. The currently included papers have generated 1413 different items of rate information data. In order to analyze these data we have undertaken several sequential filters in order to identify (a) non-overlapping data, (b) birth cohort study versus noncohort studies, (c) overall and sex-specific rates, (d) diagnostic criteria, (e) age ranges, (f) epoch of study, and (g) data on migrant or other special interest groups. In addition, we will examine the impact of urbanicity of site, age and/or sex standardization, and quality score on the incidence rates. The various discrete incidence rates will be presented graphically and the impact of various filters on these rates will be inspected using meta-analytic techniques. The use of meta-analysis may help elucidate the epidemiological landscape with respect to the incidence of schizophrenia and aid in the generation of new hypothesis. Acknowledgements: The Stanley Medical Research Institute supported project

HRT and breast cancer: Impact on population risk and incidence

This study has calculated the potential impact of hormone replacement therapy (HRT) on breast cancer incidence in Australia and has estimated how changes in prescribing HRT to women could affect this risk. The effects of HRT on breast cancer incidence was estimated using the attributable fraction technique with prevalence data derived from the 2001 Australian Health Survey and published rates of breast cancer relative risks from HRT use. In Australia, 12% of adult women were current HRT users and in 2001, 11783 breast cancers were reported. Of these, 1066 (9%) were potentially attributable to HRT. Restricting HRT use to women aged less than 65 years, ceasing HRT prescribing after 10 years or limiting combined oestrogen and progesterone HRT to five years (but otherwise keeping prescription levels to 2001 levels) may reduce the annual breast cancer caseload by 280 (2.4%), 555 (4.7%) or 674 (5.7%), respectively. In conclusion, this study has demonstrated that when HRT prevalence is relatively high, the effect on breast cancer incidence in the population will be significant. A small modification in HRT prescribing practices may impact breast cancer incidence in Australia with associated financial and health care provision implications. (C) 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Incidence and distribution of viruses of Taro (Colocasia esculenta) in Pacific Island countries

Four viruses have been reported from taro; Dasheen mosaic virus (DsMV), Taro bacilliform virus (TaBV) and two putative rhabdoviruses, Colocasia bobone disease virus (CBDV) and Taro vein chlorosis virus (TaVCV). A fifth virus, tentatively named Taro reovirus (TaRV), has also been recently identified. The distribution of these viruses throughout the Pacific Islands, and the symptoms associated with their infection, are unknown in many cases due to a lack of sensitive diagnostic tests. We have used recently developed PCR-based diagnostic tests to survey taro growing in 11 Pacific Island countries for the presence of known viruses. DsMV and TaBV were widespread, whereas TaVCV and TaRV were more restricted in their distribution. CBDV was restricted to PNG and Solomon Islands and was always associated with the two most serious viral diseases of taro; alomae disease and bobone disease, but the causal agent of these two diseases remains unclear.

Constipation in intensive care unit: Incidence and risk factors

Purpose: Although gastrointestinal motility disorders are common in critically ill patients, constipation and its implications have received very little attention. We aimed to determine the incidence of constipation to find risk factors and its implications in critically ill patients Materials and Methods: During a 6-month period, we enrolled all patients admitted to an intensive care unit from an universitary hospital who stayed 3 or more days. Patients submitted to bowel surgery were excluded. Results: Constipation occurred in 69.9% of the patients. There was no difference between constipated and not constipated in terms of sex, age, Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II, type of admission (surgical, clinical, or trauma), opiate use, antibiotic therapy, and mechanical ventilation. Early (<24 hours) enteral nutrition was associated with less constipation, a finding that persisted at multivariable analysis (P < .01). Constipation was not associated with greater intensive care unit or mortality, length of stay, or days free from mechanical ventilation. Conclusions: Constipation is very common among critically ill patients. Early enteral nutrition is associated with earlier return of bowel function. (C) 2009 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.