Nonparametric Estimation of Data Dimensionality Prior to Data Compression: the case of the Human Development Index

In many applications in applied statistics researchers reduce the complexity of a data set by combining a group of variables into a single measure using factor analysis or an index number. We argue that such compression loses information if the data actually has high dimensionality. We advocate the use of a non-parametric estimator, commonly used in physics (the Takens estimator), to estimate the correlation dimension of the data prior to compression. The advantage of this approach over traditional linear data compression approaches is that the data does not have to be linearized. Applying our ideas to the United Nations Human Development Index we find that the four variables that are used in its construction have dimension three and the index loses information.

Empirical testing of genuine savings as an indicator of weak sustainability: a three-country analysis of long run trends

Genuine Savings has emerged as a widely-used indicator of sustainable development. In this paper, we use long-term data stretching back to 1870 to undertake empirical tests of the relationship between Genuine Savings (GS) and future well-being for three countries: Britain, the USA and Germany. Our tests are based on an underlying theoretical relationship between GS and changes in the present value of future consumption. Based on both single country and panel results, we find evidence supporting the existence of a cointegrating (long run equilibrium) relationship between GS and future well-being, and fail to reject the basic theoretical result on the relationship between these two macroeconomic variables. This provides some support for the GS measure of weak sustainability. We also show the effects of modelling shocks, such as World War Two and the Great Depression.

An indirect bridge inspection method incorporating a wavelet-based damage indicator and pattern recognition

In recent years, there has been a move towards the development of indirect structural health monitoring (SHM)techniques for bridges; the low-cost vibration-based method presented in this paper is such an approach. It consists of the use of a moving vehicle fitted with accelerometers on its axles and incorporates wavelet analysis and statistical pattern recognition. The aim of the approach is to both detect and locate damage in bridges while reducing the need for direct instrumentation of the bridge. In theoretical simulations, a simplified vehicle-bridge interaction model is used to investigate the effectiveness of the approach in detecting damage in a bridge from vehicle accelerations. For this purpose, the accelerations are processed using a continuous wavelet transform as when the axle passes over a damaged section, any discontinuity in the signal would affect the wavelet coefficients. Based on these coefficients, a damage indicator is formulated which can distinguish between different damage levels. However, it is found to be difficult to quantify damage of varying levels when the vehicle’s transverse position is varied between bridge crossings. In a real bridge field experiment, damage was applied artificially to a steel truss bridge to test the effectiveness of the indirect approach in practice; for this purpose a two-axle van was driven across the bridge at constant speed. Both bridge and vehicle acceleration measurements were recorded. The dynamic properties of the test vehicle were identified initially via free vibration tests. It was found that the resulting damage indicators for the bridge and vehicle showed similar patterns, however, it was difficult to distinguish between different artificial damage scenarios.

Monitoring of saliva pH using miniaturized sensing tools as an indicator of oral health

The monitoring of oral disease is important, not alone for oral health, but for the detection and prevention of
systemic disease. The link between oral health and systemic disease is the focus of many studies, with
indications emerging of a causal link [1]. For disease diagnostics, blood has typically been the fluid of choice
for analysis, the retrieval of which is invasive and therefore unsuitable for wearable technology. Analysis of
saliva, however, is less invasive than that of blood, requires little or no pre-treatment and is abundantly
available. A strong correlation has been found between the analytes of blood and saliva [2] with saliva
containing biomarkers for diseases such as diabetes, oral cancer and cardiovascular disease. The development of
an implantable multi-parametric wireless sensor, to monitor both salivary analytes and changes in gingival
temperature, is the aim of this research project.
The aim of our current study is to detect changes in salivary pH, using a gold electrode with a pHsensitive
iridium oxide layer, and an Ion Sensitive Field Effect Transistor probe. Characterisation studies were
carried out in artificial saliva (AS). A salivary pH of between 4.5pH-7.5pH [3], and gingival temperature
between 35°C-38°C [4], were identified as the target range of interest for the human oral environment. Sensor
measurements were recorded in solutions of varying pH and temperature. An ISFET probe was then implanted
into a prototype denture and characterised in AS. This study demonstrates the suitability of ISFET and gold
electrode pH sensors for incorporation into implantable oral sensors.
[1] G. Taylor and W. Borgnakke, “Periodontal disease: associations with diabetes, glycemic control and
complications,” Oral Dis., vol. 14, no. 3, pp. 191–203, Apr. 2008.
[2] E. Tékus, M. Kaj, E. Szabó, N. L. Szénási, I. Kerepesi, M. Figler, R. Gábriel, and M. Wilhelm,
“Comparison of blood and saliva lactate level after maximum intensity exercise,” Acta Biol. Hung., vol. 63
Suppl 1, pp. 89–98, 2012.
[3] S. Naveen, M. L. Asha, G. Shubha, A. Bajoria, and A. Jose, “Salivary Flow Rate, pH and Buffering
Capacity in Pregnant and Non Pregnant Women - A Comparative Study,” JMED Res., pp. 1–8, Feb. 2014.
[4] A. F. Holthuis and F. S. Chebib, “Observations on temperature and temperature patterns of the gingiva. I.
The effect of arch, region and health,” J. Periodontol., vol. 54, no. 10, pp. 624–628, Oct. 1983

Empirical testing of genuine savings as an indicator of weak sustainability: a three-country analysis of long run trends

Genuine Savings has emerged as a widely used indicator of sustainable development. In this paper, we use long -term data stretching back to 1870 to undertake empirical tests of the relationship between Genuine Savings (GS) and future well-being for three countries: Britain, the USA and Germany. Our tests are based on an underlying theoretical relationship between GS and changes in the present value of future consumption. Based on both single country and panel results, we find evidence supporting the existence of javascript:void(0);a cointegrating (long run equilibrium) relationship between GS and future well-being, and fail to reject the basic theoretical result on the relationship between these two macroeconomic variables. This provides some support for the GS measure of weak sustainability.

Methodologies for a sustainable development of estuarine ecosystems

As zonas costeiras, estuarinas e lagunares são consideradas áreas muito produtivas e dotadas de grande biodiversidade sendo, por isso, consideradas de elevado valor ecológico e económico. No entanto, nas últimas décadas tem vindo a verificar-se um aumento da contaminação destes ecossistemas como resultado de diversas actividades antrópicas. As abordagens actualmente disponíveis para avaliação do impacto da poluição em ecossistemas estuarinos e lagunares apresentam diversos tipos de lacunas, pelo que é importante desenvolver metodologias mais eficazes com organismos autóctones. Neste contexto, o objectivo central desta dissertação consistiu em desenvolver e validar métodos ecologicamente relevantes para avaliação da contaminação estuarina e dos seus efeitos, utilizando o góbio-comum (Pomatoschistus microps), quer como organismo-teste quer como espécie sentinela, devido à importante função que desempenha nas cadeias tróficas de diversos estuários da costa Portuguesa. A Ria de Aveiro foi seleccionada como área de estudo principalmente pelo facto de possuir zonas com diferentes tipos de contaminação predominante e de haver conhecimento científico de base abundante e de elevada qualidade sobre este ecosistema. Na primeira fase do estudo, foram investigados os efeitos agudos de dois hidrocarbonetos aromáticos policíclicos (HAPs) (benzo[a]pireno e antraceno), de um fuel-óleo e de dois metais (cobre e mercúrio) em P. microps, utilizando ensaios laboratoriais baseados em biomarcadores e em parâmetros comportamentais, os quais foram avaliados utilizando um dispositivo expressamente desenvolvido para o efeito, designado por speed performance device (SPEDE). Como biomarcadores foram utilizados parâmetros envolvidos em funções fisiológicas determinantes para a sobrevivência e desempenho dos animais (neurotransmissão, obtenção de energia, destoxificação e defesas anti-oxidantes), nomeadamente a actividade das enzimas acetilcolinesterase, lactato desidrogenase, CYP1A1, glutationa S-transferases, glutationa reductase, glutationa peroxidase, superóxido dismutase, catalase, tendo ainda sido determinados os níveis de peroxidação lipídica como indicador de danos oxidativos. De forma global, os resultados indicaram que os agentes e a mistura testados têm a capacidade de interferir com a função neurológica, de alterar as vias utilizadas para obtenção de energia celular, induzir as defesas antioxidantes e, no caso do cobre e do mercúrio, de causarem peroxidação lipídica. Foram ainda obtidas relações concentração-resposta a nível dos parâmetros comportamentais testados, nomeadamente a capacidade de nadar contra a corrente e a distância percorrida a nadar contra o fluxo de água, sugerindo que os agentes testados podem, por exemplo, diminuir a capacidade de fuga aos predadores, as probabilidades de captura de presas e o sucesso reprodutivo. Na segunda fase, tendo sido já adaptadas técnicas para determinação de vários biomarcadores em P. microps e estudada a sua resposta a dois grupos de poluentes particularmente relevantes em ecossistemas estuarinos e lagunares (metais e HAPs), foi efectuado um estudo de monitorização utilizando P. microps como bioindicador e que incluiu diversos parâmetros ecológicos e ecotoxicológicos, nomedamente: 20 parâmetros indicativos da qualidade da água e do sedimento, concentração de 9 metais em sedimentos e no corpo de P. microps, 8 biomarcadores e 2 índices de condição na espécie seleccionada. A amostragem foi efectuada em quatro locais da Ria de Aveiro, um considerado como referência (Barra) e três com diferentes tipos predominantes de contaminação (Vagueira, Porto de Aveiro e Cais do Bico), sazonalmente, durante um ano. Os resultados obtidos permitiram uma caracterização ecotoxicológica dos locais, incluindo informação sobre a qualidade da água, concentrações de contaminantes ambientais prioritários nos sedimentos e nos tecidos de P. microps, capacidade desta espécie para bioacumular metais, efeitos exercidos pelas complexas misturas de poluentes presentes em cada uma das zonas de amostragem nesta espécie e possíveis consequências para a população. A análise multivariada permitiu analisar de forma integrada todos os resultados, proporcionando informação que não poderia ser obtida analisando os dados de forma compartimentalizada. Em conclusão, os resultados obtidos no âmbito desta dissertação indicam que P. microps possui características adequadas para ser utilizado como organismoteste em ensaios laboratoriais (e.g. abundância, fácil manutenção, permite a determinação de diferentes tipos de critérios de efeito utilizando um número relativamente reduzido de animais, entre outras) e como organismo sentinela em estudos de monitorização da poluição e da qualidade ambiental, estando portanto de acordo com estudos de menor dimensão previamente efectuados. O trabalho desenvolvido permitiu ainda adaptar a P. microps diversas técnicas bioquímicas vulgarmente utilizadas como biomarcadores em Ecotoxicologia e validá-las quer no laboratório quer em cenários reais; desenvolver um novo bioensaio, utilizando um dispositivo de teste especialmente concebido para peixes epibentónicos baseado na performance natatória de uma espécie autóctone e em biomarcadores; relacionar os efeitos a nível bioquímico com parâmetros comportamentais que ao serem afectados podem reduzir de forma drástica e diversificada (e.g. aumento da mortalidade, diminuição do sucesso reprodutivo, redução do crescimento) a contribuição individual para a população. Finalmente, foi validada uma abordagem multidisciplinar, combinando metodologias ecológicas, ecotoxicológicas e químicas que, quando considerada de forma integrada utilizando análises de estatística multivariada, fornece informação científica da maior relevância susceptível de ser utilizada como suporte a medidas de conservação e gestão em estuários e sistemas lagunares.

Genotoxicity in humans and indicator species exposed to uranium wastes

Os riscos dos resíduos provenientes da extração do urânio estão associados ao seu conteúdo em metais e radionuclídeos, o que levanta preocupações às autoridades governamentais e à população em geral. As populações humanas e outras espécies animais que vivem em zonas de exploração de urânio poderão estar expostas à radiação através de resíduos e poeiras radioactivase também através de água e alimentos contaminados. A determinação dos riscos deste tipo de contaminantes é feita, principalmente, através da análise química de amostras ambientais, dando-se menos importância à determinação de efeitos biológicos. A determinação de efeitos biológicos causados pela exposição a poluentes, tem-se revelado muito importante para uma avaliação da qualidade ambiental, de modo a providenciar indicações acerca dos efeitos negativos nos seres vivos e também para complementar a informação dada pelas análises químicas de amostras ambientais. Este facto levou ao estabelecimento de biomarcadores, que consistem em respostas biológicas adversas que são específicas de uma exposição a toxinas ambientais, para serem usadas como ferramentas de avaliação da qualidade ambiental. Neste trabalho foram analisadas respostas a nível molecular e celular, em minhocas, ratinhos do campo e humanos, a fim de determinar o risco químico e radiológico dos resíduos provenientes da mina de urânio da Cunha Baixa. Este trabalho teve também como objectivo a clarificação das respostas subjacentes à exposição a metais e radionuclídeos, a fim de permitir o desenvolvimento de potenciais novos biomarcadores moleculares. Durante este trabalho foram efectuados ensaios com minhocas, em que estas foram expostas durante 56 dias a solo contaminado proveniente da mina de urânio da Cunha Baixa, em laboratório e in situ. Durante a exposição foram analisados vários parâmetros, como o crescimento, reprodução, bioacumulação de metais e radionuclídeos, histopatologia, danos no DNA, citotoxicidade e perfil de expressão genética. Para além disso, foram amostrados ratinhos do campo na mina de urânio da Cunha Baixa e numa área de referência para determinação de danos no DNA, níveis de expressão e mutações em genes supressores de tumores e também bioacumulação de metais. Por fim, foram recolhidas amostras de sangue em voluntários saudáveis pertencentes à população da aldeia da Cunha Baixa, para determinação de danos no DNA, imunofenotipagem e quantificação de metais no sangue. Os resultados revelaram que as minhocas assim como os ratinhos do campo foram negativamente afetados pela exposição aos resíduos mineiros em todos os níveis de organização biológica aqui analisados, o que faz destes organismos bons indicadores para a determinação do risco destas áreas contaminadas, evidenciando o potencial risco da exposição a estes contaminantes. Para além disso, o estudo feito à população da Cunha Baixa revelou danos no ADN e diminuição de populações importantes de células imunitárias (nomeadamente linfócitos T e NK), o que poderá resultar da exposição aos resíduos da mina, tornando as pessoas mais susceptíveis ao desenvolvimento de processos de carcinogénese. O presente estudo contribuiu significativamente para a caracterização dos riscos da exposição a resíduos provenientes de minas de urânio abandonadas, evidenciando os seus efeitos negativos a nível molecular e celular, que potencialmente poderão causar instabilidade genómica e aumentar o risco de desenvolvimento de doenças genéticas.

Development of the sustainability of coastal activities through ICZM process

Dissertação de Mestrado, Gestão da Água e da Costa, Faculdade de Ciências e Tecnologia, Universidade do Algarve, 2008

Accessibility Planning tools for sustainable and integrated Land Use/Transport (LUT) development: an application to Rome

The paper fits into the themes of sustainable accessibility planning in urban areas, that can be defined as the integration of transport and land use planning to achieve sustainable development. In particular the study proposes a tool to support the choices of activities location, which is based on a new aggregate (zone-specific) indicator: the ‘Marginal Activity Access Cost’, providing estimation in monetary terms of the impacts on mobility and on the environment of locating one new activity in a specific zone of the urban area. The proposed indicator is validated through an application to the urban area of Rome.

Development of an instrument to assess Human Resource Quality (HRQ) and measuring the impact of TQM efforts on HRQ using the instrument

This research is aimed at developing an instrument for measuring human resource quality in organizations. The researcher has developed the instrument for measuring HRQ based on extensive literature survey and expert opinion. Statistical validity of the Instrument has also been established. This instrument was used to measure the changes in Human Resource Quality in selected organizations wherein quality management practices are being implemented. Data collected was analyzed and presented in this thesis. It has been found that there are significant changes in all the indicators of Human Resource Quality. There is improvement in Cultural Change Index(CCI), Quality of Work Life Index(QWLI) and Employee Satisfaction Index(ESI). The Human Resource Quality index has also increased significantly in all the organizations. It has been observed from the study that implementation of TQM leads to significant changes in Human Resource Quality. This instrument is capable of measuring minor variations in each indicator of HRQ and can be used to identify areas of weakness and strength in the case of Human Resource Quality. The instrument can further be modified by future research. This research work provided excellent opportunities for the researcher for self-development and has made him confident to undertake such activities for the benefit of the learning community.

The analysis of ranked observations of soil structure using indicator geostatistics

Structure is an important physical feature of the soil that is associated with water movement, the soil atmosphere, microorganism activity and nutrient uptake. A soil without any obvious organisation of its components is known as apedal and this state can have marked effects on several soil processes. Accurate maps of topsoil and subsoil structure are desirable for a wide range of models that aim to predict erosion, solute transport, or flow of water through the soil. Also such maps would be useful to precision farmers when deciding how to apply nutrients and pesticides in a site-specific way, and to target subsoiling and soil structure stabilization procedures. Typically, soil structure is inferred from bulk density or penetrometer resistance measurements and more recently from soil resistivity and conductivity surveys. To measure the former is both time-consuming and costly, whereas observations made by the latter methods can be made automatically and swiftly using a vehicle-mounted penetrometer or resistivity and conductivity sensors. The results of each of these methods, however, are affected by other soil properties, in particular moisture content at the time of sampling, texture, and the presence of stones. Traditional methods of observing soil structure identify the type of ped and its degree of development. Methods of ranking such observations from good to poor for different soil textures have been developed. Indicator variograms can be computed for each category or rank of structure and these can be summed to give the sum of indicator variograms (SIV). Observations of the topsoil and subsoil structure were made at four field sites where the soil had developed on different parent materials. The observations were ranked by four methods and indicator and the sum of indicator variograms were computed and modelled for each method of ranking. The individual indicators were then kriged with the parameters of the appropriate indicator variogram model to map the probability of encountering soil with the structure represented by that indicator. The model parameters of the SIVs for each ranking system were used with the data to krige the soil structure classes, and the results are compared with those for the individual indicators. The relations between maps of soil structure and selected wavebands from aerial photographs are examined as basis for planning surveys of soil structure. (C) 2007 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Greening the United Nations' Human Development Index?

The Human Development Index (HDI) introduced by the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) in 1990 has helped facilitate widespread debate amongst development researchers, practitioners and policy makers. The HDI is an aggregate index, calculated on an annual basis by the UNDP and published in its Human Development Reports, comprising measures of three components deemed by them to be central to development: W income (the gross domestic product per capita), (ii) education (adult literacy rate) and (iii) health (life expectancy at birth). The results of calculating the HDI are typically presented as country/regional league tables, and provide a quick means for policy makers and others to judge performance. Perhaps partly because of the relative simplicity of the index, the HDI has managed to achieve a level of acceptance and use amongst politicians and policy makers that has yet to emerge with any indicator of sustainability. Indeed, despite its existence for 11 years, including nine years after the Rio Earth Summit, the HDI has not even been modified to take on board wider issues of sustainability. This paper will critically examine the potential for 'greening' the HDI so as to include environmental and resource-consumption dimensions. Copyright (C) 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd and ERP Environment.

The geography of tyranny and despair: development indicators and the hypothesis of genetic inevitability of national inequality

Development geography has long sought to understand why inequalities exist and the best ways to address them. Dependency theory sets out an historical rationale for under development based on colonialism and a legacy of developed core and under-developed periphery. Race is relevant in this theory only insofar that Europeans are white and the places they colonised were occupied by people with darker skin colour. There are no innate biological reasons why it happened in that order. However, a new theory for national inequalities proposed by Lynn and Vanhanen in a series of publications makes the case that poorer countries have that status because of a poorer genetic stock rather than an accident of history. They argue that IQ has a genetic basis and IQ is linked to ability. Thus races with a poorer IQ have less ability, and thus national IQ can be positively correlated with performance as measured by an indicator like GDP/capita. Their thesis is one of despair, as little can be done to improve genetic stock significantly other than a programme of eugenics. This paper summarises and critiques the Lynn and Vanhanen hypothesis and the assumptions upon which it is based, and uses this analysis to show how a human desire to simplify in order to manage can be dangerous in development geography. While the attention may naturally be focused on the 'national IQ' variables as a proxy measure of 'innate ability', the assumption of GDP per capita as an indicator of 'success' and 'achievement' is far more readily accepted without criticism. The paper makes the case that the current vogue for indicators, indices and cause-effect can be tyrannical.

Development of colour and firmness in strawberry crops is UV light sensitive, but colour is not a good predictor of several quality parameters

BACKGROUND: Strawberry (Fragaria × ananassa Duchesne var. Elsanta) plants were grown in polytunnels covered with three polythene films that transmitted varying levels of ultraviolet (UV) light. Fruit were harvested under near-commercial conditions and quality and yield were measured. During ripening, changes in the colour parameters of individual fruit were monitored, and the accuracy of using surface colour to predict other quality parameters was determined by analysing the correlation between colour and quality parameters within UV treatments. RESULTS: Higher exposure to UV during growth resulted in the fruit becoming darker at harvest and developing surface colour more quickly; fruit were also firmer at harvest, but shelf life was not consistently affected by the UV regime. Surface colour measurements were poorly correlated to firmness, shelf life or total phenolics, anthocyanins and ellagic acid contents. CONCLUSION: Although surface colour of strawberry fruits was affected by the UV regime during growth, and this parameter is an important factor in consumer perception, we concluded that the surface colour at the time of harvest was, contrary to consumer expectations, a poor indicator of firmness, potential shelf life or anthocyanin content. Copyright © 2011 Society of Chemical Industry

An objective, niche-based approach to indicator species selection

1. Species-based indices are frequently employed as surrogates for wider biodiversity health and measures of environmental condition. Species selection is crucial in determining an indicators metric value and hence the validity of the interpretation of ecosystem condition and function it provides, yet an objective process to identify appropriate indicator species is frequently lacking. 2. An effective indicator needs to (i) be representative, reflecting the status of wider biodiversity; (ii) be reactive, acting as early-warning systems for detrimental changes in environmental conditions; (iii) respond to change in a predictable way. We present an objective, niche-based approach for species' selection, founded on a coarse categorisation of species' niche space and key resource requirements, which ensures the resultant indicator has these key attributes. 3. We use UK farmland birds as a case study to demonstrate this approach, identifying an optimal indicator set containing 12 species. In contrast to the 19 species included in the farmland bird index (FBI), a key UK biodiversity indicator that contributes to one of the UK Government's headline indicators of sustainability, the niche space occupied by these species fully encompasses that occupied by the wider community of 62 species. 4. We demonstrate that the response of these 12 species to land-use change is a strong correlate to that of the wider farmland bird community. Furthermore, the temporal dynamics of the index based on their population trends closely matches the population dynamics of the wider community. However, in both analyses, the magnitude of the change in our indicator was significantly greater, allowing this indicator to act as an early-warning system. 5. Ecological indicators are embedded in environmental management, sustainable development and biodiversity conservation policy and practice where they act as metrics against which progress towards national, regional and global targets can be measured. Adopting this niche-based approach for objective selection of indicator species will facilitate the development of sensitive and representative indices for a range of taxonomic groups, habitats and spatial scales.