Impact of a new mandatory reporting law on reporting and identification of child sexual abuse: A seven year time trend analysis

Child sexual abuse is widespread and difficult to detect. To enhance case identification, many societies have enacted mandatory reporting laws requiring designated professionals, most often police, teachers, doctors and nurses, to report suspected cases to government child welfare agencies. Little research has explored the effects of introducing a reporting law on the number of reports made, and the outcomes of those reports. This study explored the impact of a new legislative mandatory reporting duty for child sexual abuse in the State of Western Australia over seven years. We analysed data about numbers and outcomes of reports by mandated reporters, for periods before the law (2006-08) and after the law (2009-12). Results indicate that the number of reports by mandated reporters of suspected child sexual abuse increased by a factor of 3.7, from an annual mean of 662 in the three year pre-law period to 2448 in the four year post-law period. The increase in the first two post-law years was contextually and statistically significant. Report numbers stabilised in 2010-12, at one report per 210 children. The number of investigated reports increased threefold, from an annual mean of 451 in the pre-law period to 1363 in the post-law period. Significant decline in the proportion of mandated reports that were investigated in the first two post-law years suggested the new level of reporting and investigative need exceeded what was anticipated. However, a subsequent significant increase restored the pre-law proportion, suggesting systemic adaptive capacity. The number of substantiated investigations doubled, from an annual mean of 160 in the pre-law period to 327 in the post-law period, indicating twice as many sexually abused children were being identified.

Flexible Budgeting under Uncertainty: A Real Options Perspective

This paper examines the relationships between uncertainty and the perceived usefulness of traditional annual budgets versus flexible budgets in 95 Swedish companies. We form hypotheses that the perceived usefulness of the annual budgets as well as the attitudes to more flexible budget alternatives are influenced by the uncertainty that the companies face. Our study distinguishes between two separate kinds of uncertainty: exogenous stochastic uncertainty (deriving from the firm’s environment) and endogenous deterministic uncertainty (caused by the strategic choices made by the firm itself). Based on a structural equations modelling analysis of data from a mail survey we found that the more accentuated exogenous uncertainty a company faces, the more accentuated is the expected trend towards flexibility in the budget system, and vice versa; the more endogenous uncertainty they face, the more negative are their attitudes towards budget flexibility. We also found that these relationships were not present with regard to the attitudes towards the usefulness of the annual budget. Noteworthy is, however, that there was a significant negative relationship between the perceived usefulness of the annual budget and budget flexibility. Thus, our results seem to indicate that the degree of flexibility in the budget system is influenced by both general attitudes towards the usefulness of traditional budgets and by the actual degree of exogenous uncertainty a company faces and by the strategy that it executes.

The Physical Strenuousness of Work is Slightly Associated with an Upward Trend in the Body Mass Index

This paper explores the relationship between the physical strenuousness of work and the body mass index in Finland, using individual microdata over the period 1972-2002. The data contain self-reported information about the physical strenuousness of a respondent’s current occupation. Our estimates show that the changes in the physical strenuousness of work can explain around 8% at most of the definite increase in BMI observed over the period. The main reason for this appears to be that the quantitative magnitude of the effect of the physical strenuousness of work on BMI is rather moderate. Hence, according to the point estimates, BMI is only around 1.5% lower when one’s current occupation is physically very demanding and involves lifting and carrying heavy objects compared with sedentary job (reference group of the estimations), other things being equal. Accordingly, the changes in eating habits and the amount of physical activity during leisure time must be the most important contributors to the upward trend in BMI in industrialised countries, but not the changes in the labour market structure.

Prediction of inplane damping from deterministic and stochastic models

This paper reviews computational reliability, computer algebra, stochastic stability and rotating frame turbulence (RFT) in the context of predicting the blade inplane mode stability, a mode which is at best weakly damped. Computational reliability can be built into routine Floquet analysis involving trim analysis and eigenanalysis, and a highly portable special purpose processor restricted to rotorcraft dynamics analysis is found to be more economical than a multipurpose processor. While the RFT effects are dominant in turbulence modeling, the finding that turbulence stabilizes the inplane mode is based on the assumption that turbulence is white noise.

A Deterministic Optimization Approach to Protein Sequence Design Using Continuous Models

Determining the sequence of amino acid residues in a heteropolymer chain of a protein with a given conformation is a discrete combinatorial problem that is not generally amenable for gradient-based continuous optimization algorithms. In this paper we present a new approach to this problem using continuous models. In this modeling, continuous "state functions" are proposed to designate the type of each residue in the chain. Such a continuous model helps define a continuous sequence space in which a chosen criterion is optimized to find the most appropriate sequence. Searching a continuous sequence space using a deterministic optimization algorithm makes it possible to find the optimal sequences with much less computation than many other approaches. The computational efficiency of this method is further improved by combining it with a graph spectral method, which explicitly takes into account the topology of the desired conformation and also helps make the combined method more robust. The continuous modeling used here appears to have additional advantages in mimicking the folding pathways and in creating the energy landscapes that help find sequences with high stability and kinetic accessibility. To illustrate the new approach, a widely used simplifying assumption is made by considering only two types of residues: hydrophobic (H) and polar (P). Self-avoiding compact lattice models are used to validate the method with known results in the literature and data that can be practically obtained by exhaustive enumeration on a desktop computer. We also present examples of sequence design for the HP models of some real proteins, which are solved in less than five minutes on a single-processor desktop computer Some open issues and future extensions are noted.

An Efficient Constraint Grammar Parser based on Inward Deterministic Automata

Pappret conceptualizes parsning med Constraint Grammar på ett nytt sätt som en process med två viktiga representationer. En representation innehåller lokala tvetydighet och den andra sammanfattar egenskaperna hos den lokala tvetydighet klasser. Båda representationer manipuleras med ren finite-state metoder, men deras samtrafik är en ad hoc -tillämpning av rationella potensserier. Den nya tolkningen av parsning systemet har flera praktiska fördelar, bland annat det inåt deterministiska sättet att beräkna, representera och räkna om alla potentiella tillämpningar av reglerna i meningen.

Origin of magnetism and trend in T-c in Cr-based double perovskites: Interplay of two driving mechanisms

Hamiltonian constructed in a first principles manner, we explored the origin of magnetism and the T-c trend in Cr-based double perovskite series, Sr2CrB'O-6 (B' = W/Re/Os). Our study shows that the apparently puzzling T-c trend in Sr2CrB'O-6 (B' = W/Re/Os) series can be understood in terms of the interplay of the hybridization driven mechanism and the superexchange mechanism.

Code design casing deterministic annealing

We address the problem of designing codes for specific applications using deterministic annealing. Designing a block code over any finite dimensional space may be thought of as forming the corresponding number of clusters over the particular dimensional space. We have shown that the total distortion incurred in encoding a training set is related to the probability of correct reception over a symmetric channel. While conventional deterministic annealing make use of the Euclidean squared error distance measure, we have developed an algorithm that can be used for clustering with Hamming distance as the distance measure, which is required in the error correcting, scenario.

Origin of a trend in ECMWF wind analysis and its objective removal

The suitability of the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (ECMWF) operational wind analysis for the period 1980-1991 for studying interannual variability is examined. The changes in the model and the analysis procedure are shown to give rise to a systematic and significant trend in the large scale circulation features. A new method of removing the systematic errors at all levels is presented using multivariate EOF analysis. Objectively detrended analysis of the three-dimensional wind field agrees well with independent Florida State University (FSU) wind analysis at the surface. It is shown that the interannual variations in the detrended surface analysis agree well in amplitude as well as spatial patterns with those of the FSU analysis. Therefore, the detrended analyses at other levels as well are expected to be useful for studies of variability and predictability at interannual time scales. It is demonstrated that this trend in the wind field is due to the shift in the climatologies from the period 1980-1985 to the period 1986-1991.

Data rectification and detection of trend shifts in jet engine path measurements using median filters and fuzzy logic

Filtering methods are explored for removing noise from data while preserving sharp edges that many indicate a trend shift in gas turbine measurements. Linear filters are found to be have problems with removing noise while preserving features in the signal. The nonlinear hybrid median filter is found to accurately reproduce the root signal from noisy data. Simulated faulty data and fault-free gas path measurement data are passed through median filters and health residuals for the data set are created. The health residual is a scalar norm of the gas path measurement deltas and is used to partition the faulty engine from the healthy engine using fuzzy sets. The fuzzy detection system is developed and tested with noisy data and with filtered data. It is found from tests with simulated fault-free and faulty data that fuzzy trend shift detection based on filtered data is very accurate with no false alarms and negligible missed alarms.