A system of logic, ratiocinative and inductive, being a connected view of the principles of evidence, and the methods of scientific investigation.

Mode of access: Internet.

A system of logic, ratiocinative and inductive: being a connected view of the principles of evidence and the methods of scientific investigation.

Mode of access: Internet.

Theory-of-mind development in oral deaf children with cochlear implants or conventional hearing aids

Background: In the context of the established finding that theory-of-mind (ToM) growth is seriously delayed in late-signing deaf children, and some evidence of equivalent delays in those learning speech with conventional hearing aids, this study's novel contribution was to explore ToM development in deaf children with cochlear implants. Implants can substantially boost auditory acuity and rates of language growth. Despite the implant, there are often problems socialising with hearing peers and some language difficulties, lending special theoretical interest to the present comparative design. Methods: A total of 52 children aged 4 to 12 years took a battery of false belief tests of ToM. There were 26 oral deaf children, half with implants and half with hearing aids, evenly divided between oral-only versus sign-plus-oral schools. Comparison groups of age-matched high-functioning children with autism and younger hearing children were also included. Results: No significant ToM differences emerged between deaf children with implants and those with hearing aids, nor between those in oral-only versus sign-plus-oral schools. Nor did the deaf children perform any better on the ToM tasks than their age peers with autism. Hearing preschoolers scored significantly higher than all other groups. For the deaf and the autistic children, as well as the preschoolers, rate of language development and verbal maturity significantly predicted variability in ToM, over and above chronological age. Conclusions: The finding that deaf children with cochlear implants are as delayed in ToM development as children with autism and their deaf peers with hearing aids or late sign language highlights the likely significance of peer interaction and early fluent communication with peers and family, whether in sign or in speech, in order to optimally facilitate the growth of social cognition and language.

Mental playmates: Siblings, executive functioning and theory of mind

This study assessed the theory of mind (ToM) and executive functioning (EF) abilities of 124 typically developing preschool children aged 3 to 5 years in relation to whether or not they had a child-aged sibling (i.e. a child aged 1 to 12 years) at home with whom to play and converse. On a ToM battery that included tests of false belief, appearance-reality (AR) and pretend representation, children who had at least 1 child-aged sibling scored significantly higher than both only children and those whose only siblings were infants or adults. The numbers of child-aged siblings in preschoolers' families positively predicted their scores on both a ToM battery (4 tasks) and an EF battery (2 tasks), and these associations remained significant with language ability partialled out. Results of a hierarchical multiple regression analysis revealed that independent contributions to individual differences in ToM were made by language ability, EF skill and having a child-aged sibling. However, even though some conditions for mediation were met, there was no statistically reliable evidence that EF skills mediated the advantage of presence of child-aged siblings for ToM performance. While consistent with the theory that distinctively childish interaction among siblings accelerates the growth of both TOM and EF capacities, alternative evidence and alternative theoretical interpretations for the findings were also considered.

Asymptotic theory of time varying networks with memory and heterogeneous activation pattern

In this thesis work we develop a new generative model of social networks belonging to the family of Time Varying Networks. The importance of correctly modelling the mechanisms shaping the growth of a network and the dynamics of the edges activation and inactivation are of central importance in network science. Indeed, by means of generative models that mimic the real-world dynamics of contacts in social networks it is possible to forecast the outcome of an epidemic process, optimize the immunization campaign or optimally spread an information among individuals. This task can now be tackled taking advantage of the recent availability of large-scale, high-quality and time-resolved datasets. This wealth of digital data has allowed to deepen our understanding of the structure and properties of many real-world networks. Moreover, the empirical evidence of a temporal dimension in networks prompted the switch of paradigm from a static representation of graphs to a time varying one. In this work we exploit the Activity-Driven paradigm (a modeling tool belonging to the family of Time-Varying-Networks) to develop a general dynamical model that encodes fundamental mechanism shaping the social networks' topology and its temporal structure: social capital allocation and burstiness. The former accounts for the fact that individuals does not randomly invest their time and social interactions but they rather allocate it toward already known nodes of the network. The latter accounts for the heavy-tailed distributions of the inter-event time in social networks. We then empirically measure the properties of these two mechanisms from seven real-world datasets and develop a data-driven model, analytically solving it. We then check the results against numerical simulations and test our predictions with real-world datasets, finding a good agreement between the two. Moreover, we find and characterize a non-trivial interplay between burstiness and social capital allocation in the parameters phase space. Finally, we present a novel approach to the development of a complete generative model of Time-Varying-Networks. This model is inspired by the Kaufman's adjacent possible theory and is based on a generalized version of the Polya's urn. Remarkably, most of the complex and heterogeneous feature of real-world social networks are naturally reproduced by this dynamical model, together with many high-order topological properties (clustering coefficient, community structure etc.).

Governance regimes, corruption and growth: theory and evidence

We study the role of political accountability as a determinant of corruption and economic growth. Our model identifies two governance regimes defined by the quality of political institutions and shows that the relationship between corruption and growth is regime specific. We use a threshold model to estimate the impact of corruption on growth where corruption is treated as an endogenous variable. We find two governance regimes, conditional on the quality of political institutions. In the regime with high quality political institutions, corruption has a substantial negative impact on growth. In the regime with low quality institutions, corruption has no impact on growth.

The role of context and timeframe in moderating relationships within the theory of planned behaviour

This study examined the moderating effect of context and timeframe on the predictive ability of Theory of Planned Behaviour (TPB) constructs. Three hundred and eighty-three students completed TPB measures either in a campus bar or a library and were randomly allocated to one of three timeframe conditions: tonight, tomorrow or next week. There was a threeway interaction such that the subjective norms of participants in a bar were more predictive of their intentions to binge drink that night, whereas thesubjective norms of participants in a library were less predictive of intentions to binge drink that night. This research provides empirical evidence that ignoring context may result in underestimation of the importance of normative factors in binge drinking. It also suggests that other research utilising the TPB needs to take greater account of the impact of context of data collection, which has been neglected to date.

In search of a theory of list memory: an inquiry into the efects of long-term information on short-term recall

Over recent years, evidence has been accumulating in favour of the importance of long-term information as a variable which can affect the success of short-term recall. Lexicality, word frequency, imagery and meaning have all been shown to augment short term recall performance. Two competing theories as to the causes of this long-term memory influence are outlined and tested in this thesis. The first approach is the order-encoding account, which ascribes the effect to the usage of resources at encoding, hypothesising that word lists which require less effort to process will benefit from increased levels of order encoding, in turn enhancing recall success. The alternative view, trace redintegration theory, suggests that order is automatically encoded phonologically, and that long-term information can only influence the interpretation of the resultant memory trace. The free recall experiments reported here attempted to determine the importance of order encoding as a facilitatory framework and to determine the locus of the effects of long-term information in free recall. Experiments 1 and 2 examined the effects of word frequency and semantic categorisation over a filled delay, and experiments 3 and 4 did the same for immediate recall. Free recall was improved by both long-term factors tested. Order information was not used over a short filled delay, but was evident in immediate recall. Furthermore, it was found that both long-term factors increased the amount of order information retained. Experiment 5 induced an order encoding effect over a filled delay, leaving a picture of short-term processes which are closely associated with long-term processes, and which fit conceptions of short-term memory being part of language processes rather better than either the encoding or the retrieval-based models. Experiments 6 and 7 aimed to determine to what extent phonological processes were responsible for the pattern of results observed. Articulatory suppression affected the encoding of order information where speech rate had no direct influence, suggesting that it is ease of lexical access which is the most important factor in the influence of long-term memory on immediate recall tasks. The evidence presented in this thesis does not offer complete support for either the retrieval-based account or the order encoding account of long-term influence. Instead, the evidence sits best with models that are based upon language-processing. The path urged for future research is to find ways in which this diffuse model can be better specified, and which can take account of the versatility of the human brain.

Ownership structure and investment finance in transition economies:a survey of evidence from large firms in Hungary and Poland

Using survey data on 157 large private Hungarian and Polish companies this paper investigates links between ownership structures and CEOs’ expectations with regard to sources of finance for investment. The Bayesian estimation is used to deal with the small sample restrictions, while classical methods provide robustness checks. We found a hump-shaped relationship between ownership concentration and expectations of relying on public equity. The latter is most likely for firms where the largest investor owns between 25 percent and 49 percent of shares, just below the legal control threshold. More profitable firms rely on retained earnings for their investment finance, consistent with the ‘pecking order’ theory of financing. Finally, firms for which the largest shareholder is a domestic institutional investor are more likely to borrow from domestic banks.

Complex skills and academic writing:a review of evidence about the types of learning required to meet core assessment criteria

Assessment criteria are increasingly incorporated into teaching, making it important to clarify the pedagogic status of the qualities to which they refer. We reviewed theory and evidence about the extent to which four core criteria for student writing-critical thinking, use of language, structuring, and argument-refer to the outcomes of three types of learning: generic skills learning, a deep approach to learning, and complex learning. The analysis showed that all four of the core criteria describe to some extent properties of text resulting from using skills, but none qualify fully as descriptions of the outcomes of applying generic skills. Most also describe certain aspects of the outcomes of taking a deep approach to learning. Critical thinking and argument correspond most closely to the outcomes of complex learning. At lower levels of performance, use of language and structuring describe the outcomes of applying transferable skills. At higher levels of performance, they describe the outcomes of taking a deep approach to learning. We propose that the type of learning required to meet the core criteria is most usefully and accurately conceptualized as the learning of complex skills, and that this provides a conceptual framework for maximizing the benefits of using assessment criteria as part of teaching. © 2006 Taylor & Francis.

An online study combining the constructs from the theory of planned behaviour and protection motivation theory in predicting intention to test for chlamydia in two testing contexts

Chlamydia is a common sexually transmitted infection that has potentially serious consequences unless detected and treated early. The health service in the UK offers clinic-based testing for chlamydia but uptake is low. Identifying the predictors of testing behaviours may inform interventions to increase uptake. Self-tests for chlamydia may facilitate testing and treatment in people who avoid clinic-based testing. Self-testing and being tested by a health care professional (HCP) involve two contrasting contexts that may influence testing behaviour. However, little is known about how predictors of behaviour differ as a function of context. In this study, theoretical models of behaviour were used to assess factors that may predict intention to test in two different contexts: self-testing and being tested by a HCP. Individuals searching for or reading about chlamydia testing online were recruited using Google Adwords. Participants completed an online questionnaire that addressed previous testing behaviour and measured constructs of the Theory of Planned Behaviour and Protection Motivation Theory, which propose a total of eight possible predictors of intention. The questionnaire was completed by 310 participants. Sufficient data for multiple regression were provided by 102 and 118 respondents for self-testing and testing by a HCP respectively. Intention to self-test was predicted by vulnerability and self-efficacy, with a trend-level effect for response efficacy. Intention to be tested by a HCP was predicted by vulnerability, attitude and subjective norm. Thus, intentions to carry out two testing behaviours with very similar goals can have different predictors depending on test context. We conclude that interventions to increase self-testing should be based on evidence specifically related to test context.

A Theory of Natural Addiction

Economic theories of rational addiction aim to describe consumer behavior in the presence of habit-forming goods. We provide a biological foundation for this body of work by formally specifying conditions under which it is optimal to form a habit. We demonstrate the empirical validity of our thesis with an in-depth review and synthesis of the biomedical literature concerning the action of opiates in the mammalian brain and their eects on behavior. Our results lend credence to many of the unconventional behavioral assumptions employed by theories of rational addiction, including adjacent complementarity and the importance of cues, attention, and self-control in determining the behavior of addicts. We oer evidence for the special case of the opiates that "harmful" addiction is the manifestation of a mismatch between behavioral algorithms encoded in the human genome and the expanded menu of choices faced by consumers in the modern world.

Műszaki és gazdasági hatékonyság Koopmans termeléselméletében (Technical and economic efficiency in Koopmans' theory of production)

Koopmans gyakorlati problémák megoldása során szerzett tapasztalatait általánosítva fogott hozzá a lineáris tevékenységelemzési modell kidolgozásához. Meglepődve tapasztalta, hogy a korabeli közgazdaságtan nem rendelkezett egységes, kellően egzakt termeléselmélettel és fogalomrendszerrel. Úttörő dolgozatában ezért - mintegy a lineáris tevékenységelemzési modell elméleti kereteként - lerakta a technológiai halmazok fogalmán nyugvó axiomatikus termeléselmélet alapjait is. Nevéhez fűződik a termelési hatékonyság és a hatékonysági árak fogalmának egzakt definíciója, s az egymást kölcsönösen feltételező viszonyuk igazolása a lineáris tevékenységelemzési modell keretében. A hatékonyság manapság használatos, pusztán műszaki szempontból értelmezett definícióját Koopmans csak sajátos esetként tárgyalta, célja a gazdasági hatékonyság fogalmának a bevezetése és elemzése volt. Dolgozatunkban a lineáris programozás dualitási tételei segítségével rekonstruáljuk ez utóbbira vonatkozó eredményeit. Megmutatjuk, hogy egyrészt bizonyításai egyenértékűek a lineáris programozás dualitási tételeinek igazolásával, másrészt a gazdasági hatékonysági árak voltaképpen a mai értelemben vett árnyékárak. Rámutatunk arra is, hogy a gazdasági hatékonyság értelmezéséhez megfogalmazott modellje az Arrow-Debreu-McKenzie-féle általános egyensúlyelméleti modellek közvetlen előzményének tekinthető, tartalmazta azok szinte minden lényeges elemét és fogalmát - az egyensúlyi árak nem mások, mint a Koopmans-féle hatékonysági árak. Végezetül újraértelmezzük Koopmans modelljét a vállalati technológiai mikroökonómiai leírásának lehetséges eszközeként. Journal of Economic Literature (JEL) kód: B23, B41, C61, D20, D50. /===/ Generalizing from his experience in solving practical problems, Koopmans set about devising a linear model for analysing activity. Surprisingly, he found that economics at that time possessed no uniform, sufficiently exact theory of production or system of concepts for it. He set out in a pioneering study to provide a theoretical framework for a linear model for analysing activity by expressing first the axiomatic bases of production theory, which rest on the concept of technological sets. He is associated with exact definition of the concept of production efficiency and efficiency prices, and confirmation of their relation as mutual postulates within the linear model of activity analysis. Koopmans saw the present, purely technical definition of efficiency as a special case; he aimed to introduce and analyse the concept of economic efficiency. The study uses the duality precepts of linear programming to reconstruct the results for the latter. It is shown first that evidence confirming the duality precepts of linear programming is equal in value, and secondly that efficiency prices are really shadow prices in today's sense. Furthermore, the model for the interpretation of economic efficiency can be seen as a direct predecessor of the Arrow–Debreu–McKenzie models of general equilibrium theory, as it contained almost every essential element and concept of them—equilibrium prices are nothing other than Koopmans' efficiency prices. Finally Koopmans' model is reinterpreted as a necessary tool for microeconomic description of enterprise technology.

A bizonyosságfüggvények elméletének alkalmazása a pénzügyi kimutatások ellenőrzésében (The application of the theory of belief functions in the audit of financial statements)

A könyvvizsgálati kockázat a téves auditjelentés kiadásának kockázata olyan esetekben, amikor a beszámoló lényeges hibás állítást tartalmaz. Ez a kockázat indirekt módon a hitelintézetek és pénzügyi vállalkozások működésében is megjelenik azokban az esetekben, amikor a lényeges hibás állítást a finanszírozott vállalkozás auditált beszámolója tartalmazza, amelynek az alapján finanszírozási döntést hoznak, vagy a finanszírozás folytatásáról a beszámolóban szereplő, hibás információkból számított hitelkovenánsok alapján döntenek. A könyvvizsgálat kockázatában a vizsgált gazdálkodó üzleti kockázatai tükröződnek vissza, ezért a kockázat felmérése és az ellenőrzés ennek alapján való megtervezése, majd végrehajtása kulcsfontosságú. Jelen tanulmány – kapcsolódva a Hitelintézeti Szemle 2011. évi 4. számához – szintén a kockázat és bizonytalanság témakörét tárgyalja, pontosabban ennek egy gyakorlati vetületét: a bizonyosságfüggvények (belief functions) alkalmazását a könyvvizsgálatban; mindezt a teljesség és a tankönyvszerű rendszerfelépítés igénye nélkül. A módszer ugyanis hazánkban szinte ismeretlen, nemzetközi viszonylatban viszont empirikus kutatásban is rámutattak már az alkalmazás lehetséges előnyeire a hagyományos valószínűségelméleten alapuló számszerű kockázatbecslésekkel szemben. Eszerint a bizonyosságfüggvények jobban reprezentálják a könyvvizsgálóknak a kockázatról alkotott képét, mint a valószínűségek, mert – szemben a hagyományos modellel – nem két, hanem három állapotot kezelnek: a pozitív bizonyíték létezését, a negatív bizonyíték létezését és a bizonyíték hiányának esetét. _______ Audit risk is the risk that the auditor expresses an inappropriate audit opinion when the fi nancial statements are materially misstated. This kind of risk indirectly appears in the fi nancial statements of fi nancial institutions, when the material misstatement is in the fi nanced entity’s statements that serve as a basis for lending decisions or when the decision is made based upon credit covenants calculated from misstated information. The risks of the audit process refl ect the business risks of the auditee, so the assessment of risks, and further the planning and performance of the audit based on it is of key importance. The current study – connecting to No 4 2011 of Hitelintézeti Szemle – also discusses the topic of risk and uncertainty, or to be more precise a practical implementation of the aforementioned: the application of belief functions in the fi eld of external audit. All this without the aim of achieving completeness or textbook-like scrutiny in building up the theory. While the formalism is virtually unknown in Hungary, on the international scene empirical studies pointed out the possible advantages of the application of the method in contrast to risk assessments based on the traditional theory of probability. Accordingly, belief functions provide a better representation of auditors’ perception of risk, as in contrast to the traditional model, belief functions deal with three rather than two states: the existence of supportive evidence, that of negative evidence and the lack of evidence.

Toward a unified theory of task -oriented and relationship -oriented leader behavior: A multi -country generalizability study

The theoretical foundation of this study comes from the significant recurrence throughout the leadership literature of two distinct behaviors, task orientation and relationship orientation. Task orientation and relationship orientation are assumed to be generic behaviors, which are universally observed and applied in organizations, even though they may be uniquely enacted in organizations across cultures. The lack of empirical evidence supporting these assumptions provided the impetus to hypothetically develop and empirically confirm the universal application of task orientation and relationship orientation and the generalizability of their measurement in a cross-cultural setting. Task orientation and relationship orientation are operationalized through consideration and initiation of structure, two well-established theoretical leadership constructs. Multiple-group mean and covariance structures (MACS) analyses are used to simultaneously validate the generalizability of the two hypothesized constructs across the 12 cultural groups and to assess whether the similarities and differences discovered are measurement and scaling artifacts or reflect true cross-cultural differences. The data were collected by the author and others as part of a larger international research project. The data are comprised of 2341 managers from 12 countries/regions. The results provide compelling evidence that task orientation and relationship orientation, reliably and validly operationalized through consideration and initiation of structure, are generalizable across the countries/regions sampled. But the results also reveal significant differences in the perception of these behaviors, suggesting that some aspects of task orientation and relationship orientation are strongly affected by cultural influences. These (similarities and) differences reflect directly interpretable, error-free effects among the constructs at the behavioral level. Thus, task orientation and relationship orientation can demonstrate different relations among cultures, yet still be defined equivalently across the 11 cultures studied. The differences found in this study are true differences and may contain information about cultural influences characterizing each cultural context (i.e. group). The nature of such influences should be examined before the results can be meaningfully interpreted. To examine the effects of cultural characteristics on the constructs, additional hypotheses on the constructs' latent parameters can be tested across groups. Construct-level tests are illustrated in hypothetical examples in light of the study's results. The study contributes significantly to the theoretical understanding of the nature and generalizability of psychological constructs. The theoretical and practical implications of embedding context into a unified theory of task orientated and relationship oriented leader behavior are proposed. Limitations and contributions are also discussed. ^