Estimating short and long-term residential demand for electricity : new evidence from Sri Lanka

This study investigates the short-run dynamics and long-run equilibrium relationship between residential electricity demand and factors influencing demand - per capita income, price of electricity, price of kerosene oil and price of liquefied petroleum gas - using annual data for Sri Lanka for the period, 1960-2007. The study uses unit root, cointegration and error-correction models. The long-run demand elasticities of income, own price and price of kerosene oil (substitute) were estimated to be 0.78, - 0.62, and 0.14 respectively. The short-run elasticities for the same variables were estimated to be 032, - 0.16 and 0.10 respectively. Liquefied petroleum (LP) gas is a substitute for electricity only in the short-run with an elasticity 0.09. The main findings of the paper support the following (1) increasing the price of electricity is not the most effective tool to reduce electricity consumption (2) existing subsidies on electricity consumption can be removed without reducing government revenue (3) the long-run income elasticity of demand shows that any future increase in household incomes is likely to significantly increase the demand for electricity and(4) any power generation plans which consider only current per capita consumption and population growth should be revised taking into account the potential future income increases in order to avoid power shortages ill the country.

Identifying aggregate demand and supply shocks in a small open economy

The standard Blanchard-Quah (BQ) decomposition forces aggregate demand and supply shocks to be orthogonal. However, this assumption is problematic for a nation with an inflation target. The very notion of inflation targeting means that monetary policy reacts to changes in aggregate supply. This paper employs a modification of the BQ procedure that allows for correlated shifts in aggregate supply and demand. It is found that shocks to Australian aggregate demand and supply are highly correlated. The estimated shifts in the aggregate demand and supply curves are then used to measure the effects of inflation targeting on the Australian inflation rate and level of GDP.

Standardization and omics science : technical and social dimensions are inseparable and demand symmetrical study

Standardization is critical to scientists and regulators to ensure the quality and interoperability of research processes, as well as the safety and efficacy of the attendant research products. This is perhaps most evident in the case of “omics science,” which is enabled by a host of diverse high-throughput technologies such as genomics, proteomics, and metabolomics. But standards are of interest to (and shaped by) others far beyond the immediate realm of individual scientists, laboratories, scientific consortia, or governments that develop, apply, and regulate them. Indeed, scientific standards have consequences for the social, ethical, and legal environment in which innovative technologies are regulated, and thereby command the attention of policy makers and citizens. This article argues that standardization of omics science is both technical and social. A critical synthesis of the social science literature indicates that: (1) standardization requires a degree of flexibility to be practical at the level of scientific practice in disparate sites; (2) the manner in which standards are created, and by whom, will impact their perceived legitimacy and therefore their potential to be used; and (3) the process of standardization itself is important to establishing the legitimacy of an area of scientific research.

The ethics of regional water planning : planning and management of water resources in a growth region

Abstract Providing water infrastructure in times of accelerating climate change presents interesting new problems. Expanding demands must be met or managed in contexts of increasingly constrained sources of supply, raising ethical questions of equity and participation. Loss of agricultural land and natural habitats, the coastal impacts of desalination plants and concerns over re-use of waste water must be weighed with demand management issues of water rationing, pricing mechanisms and inducing behaviour change. This case study examines how these factors impact on infrastructure planning in South East Queensland, Australia: a region with one of the developed world’s most rapidly growing populations, which has recently experienced the most severe drought in its recorded history. Proposals to match forecast demands and potential supplies for water over a 20 year period are reviewed by applying ethical principles to evaluate practical plans to meet the water needs of the region’s activities and settlements.

Effect of rain on travel demand and traffic accidents

This paper studies the effect of rain on travel demand measured on the Tokyo Metropolitan Expressway (MEX). Rainfall data monitored by the Japan Meteorological Agency's meso-scale network of weather stations are used. This study found that travel demand decreases during rainy days and, in particular, larger reductions occur over the weekend. The effect of rainfall on the number of accidents recorded on 10 routes on the MEX is also analysed. Statistical testing shows that the average frequency of accidents, during periods of rainfall, is significantly different from the average frequency at other times.

Sensitivity of the lane change test as a measure of in-vehicle system demand

The Lane Change Test (LCT) is one of the growing number of methods developed to quantify driving performance degradation brought about by the use of in-vehicle devices. Beyond its validity and reliability, for such a test to be of practical use, it must also be sensitive to the varied demands of individual tasks. The current study evaluated the ability of several recent LCT lateral control and event detection parameters to discriminate between visual-manual and cognitive surrogate In-Vehicle Information System tasks with different levels of demand. Twenty-seven participants (mean age 24.4 years) completed a PC version of the LCT while performing visual search and math problem solving tasks. A number of the lateral control metrics were found to be sensitive to task differences, but the event detection metrics were less able to discriminate between tasks. The mean deviation and lane excursion measures were able to distinguish between the visual and cognitive tasks, but were less sensitive to the different levels of task demand. The other LCT metrics examined were less sensitive to task differences. A major factor influencing the sensitivity of at least some of the LCT metrics could be the type of lane change instructions given to participants. The provision of clear and explicit lane change instructions and further refinement of its metrics will be essential for increasing the utility of the LCT as an evaluation tool.

Reconciling the supply of and demand for carbon cycle science in the US agricultural sector

When asking the question, ``How can institutions design science policies for the benefit of decision makers?'' Sarewitz and Pielke Sarewitz, D., Pielke Jr., R.A., this issue. The neglected heart of science policy: reconciling supply of and demand for science. Environ. Sci. Policy 10] posit the idea of ``reconciling supply and demand of science'' as a conceptual tool for assessment of science programs. We apply the concept to the U.S. Department of Agriculture's (USDA) carbon cycle science program. By evaluating the information needs of decision makers, or the ``demand'', along with the supply of information by the USDA, we can ascertain where matches between supply and demand exist, and where science policies might miss opportunities. We report the results of contextual mapping and of interviews with scientists at the USDA to evaluate the production and use of current agricultural global change research, which has the stated goal of providing ``optimal benefit'' to decision makers on all levels. We conclude that the USDA possesses formal and informal mechanisms by which scientists evaluate the needs of users, ranging from individual producers to Congress and the President. National-level demands for carbon cycle science evolve as national and international policies are explored. Current carbon cycle science is largely derived from those discussions and thus anticipates the information needs of producers. However, without firm agricultural carbon policies, such information is currently unimportant to producers. (C) 2006 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Peak power demand reduction under moving block signalling using an expert system

The concept of moving block signallings (MBS) has been adopted in a few mass transit railway systems. When a dense queue of trains begins to move from a complete stop, the trains can re-start in very close succession under MBS. The feeding substations nearby are likely to be overloaded and the service will inevitably be disturbed unless substations of higher power rating are used. By introducing starting time delays among the trains or limiting the trains’ acceleration rate to a certain extent, the peak energy demand can be contained. However, delay is introduced and quality of service is degraded. An expert system approach is presented to provide a supervisory tool for the operators. As the knowledge base is vital for the quality of decisions to be made, the study focuses on its formulation with a balance between delay and peak power demand.

Estimating the latent demand for rail transit : a case study in Perth, Western Australia

This paper presents a study on estimating the latent demand for rail transit in Australian context. Based on travel mode-choice modelling, a two-stage analysis approach is proposed, namely market population identification and mode share estimation. A case study is conducted on Midland-Fremantle rail transit corridor in Perth, Western Australia. The required data mainly include journey-to-work trip data from Australian Bureau of Statistics Census 2006 and work-purpose mode-choice model in Perth Strategic Transport Evaluation Model. The market profile is analysed, such as catchment areas, market population, mode shares, mode specific trip distributions and average trip distances. A numerical simulation is performed to test the sensitivity of the transit ridership to the change of fuel price. A corridor-level transit demand function of fuel price is thus obtained and its characteristics of elasticity are discussed. This study explores a viable approach to developing a decision-support tool for the assessment of short-term impacts of policy and operational adjustments on corridor-level demand for rail transit.

CRE workshop part I : comprehending the context

CRE (Corporate Real Estate) decisions should not simply deal with the management of individual facilities, but should especially be concerned with the relationships that a facility has with the corporate business strategy and with the larger real estate markets. Both the practice and the research of CRE management have historically tended to emphasize real estate issues and ignore the corporation’s business issues, causing real estate strategies to be disconnected from the goal and priorities of the corporation’s senior management. With regard to office cycles, a large number of econometric models have been proposed during the last 20 years. However, evidence from historical data and previous research in the field of real estate forecasting seem to agree only on one thing: the existence of interconnected property cycles that are concentrated on vacancy rates (demand). Vacancy also represents the linkage between the inadequacy of existing CRE strategies and the inability of existing econometric models to correctly forecast office rent cycles. Business cycles, across different industry sectors, have decreased from 5-7 years to 1-3 years today, yet corporations are still entering into leases of 5-10 years, causing hidden vacancy levels to rise. Possibly, once CRE strategies are totally in tune with the overall business, hidden vacancy will fade away providing forecasters with better quality data. The aim of this paper is not to investigate whether and when the supply-side will eventually evolve to provide flexible occupancy arrangements to accommodate corporate agility requirements, but rather to propose a general framework for corporations to improve the decision making process of their CRE executives, while emphasizing the importance of understanding the context as a precondition to effective real estate involvements.

A dynamic approach to forecast rental growth

Numerous econometric models have been proposed for forecasting property market performance, but limited success has been achieved in finding a reliable and consistent model to predict property market movements over a five to ten year timeframe. This research focuses on office rental growth forecasts and overviews many of the office rent models that have evolved over the past 20 years. A model by DiPasquale and Wheaton is selected for testing in the Brisbane, Australia office market. The adaptation of this study did not provide explanatory variables that could assist in developing a reliable, predictive model of office rental growth. In light of this result, the paper suggests a system dynamics framework that includes an econometric model based on historical data as well as user input guidance for the primary variables. The rent forecast outputs would be assessed having regard to market expectations and probability profiling undertaken for use in simulation exercises. The paper concludes with ideas for ongoing research.

Teaching new dogs old tricks. How the move to 24/7 interactive, integrated multimedia, multi-platform news and feature delivery is not really changing the skills employers demand of graduates

The journalism revolution is upon us. In a world where we are constantly being told that everyone can be a publisher and challenges are emerging from bloggers, Twitterers and podcasters, journalism educators are inevitably reassessing what skills we now need to teach to keep our graduates ahead of the game. QUT this year tackled that question head-on as a curriculum review and program restructure resulted in a greater emphasis on online journalism. The author spent a week in the online newsrooms of each of two of the major players – ABC online news and thecouriermail.com to watch, listen and interview some of the key players. This, in addition to interviews with industry leaders from Fairfax and news.com, lead to the conclusion that while there are some new skills involved in new media much of what the industry is demanding is in fact good old fashioned journalism. Themes of good spelling, grammar, accuracy and writing skills and a nose for news recurred when industry players were asked what it was that they would like to see in new graduates. While speed was cited as one of the big attributes needed in online journalism, the conclusion of many of the players was that the skills of a good down-table sub or a journalist working for wire service were not unlike those most used in online newsrooms.

A critical analysis of global BPM demand

Business Process Management is accepted globally as an organisational approach that can be used to enhance productivity and drive cost efficiencies. Whilst there are numerous research articles that discuss this management approach, none clearly articulate the preferred BPM capabilities sought across geographic regions. This study aims to address this through a structured content analysis of leading on-line recruitment websites, supported by essential BPM capabilities - identified through leading academic BPM capability frameworks. Whilst the skills of process modelling, documentation and improvement were commonly sought, Enterprise level factors such as strategic alignment and process governance were less frequently mentioned. In addition, there are geographical differences in the BPM skill set requirements with an emphasis on process governance and organisational culture in European countries. This analysis can be used by prospective and current BPM professionals to understand organisational requirements globally, and academics to structure BPM education to suit these differing geographic demands.

Demand side response to mitigate electrical peak demand in Eastern and Southern Australia

The aim of this work is to develop a Demand-Side-Response (DSR) model, which assists electricity end-users to be engaged in mitigating peak demands on the electricity network in Eastern and Southern Australia. The proposed innovative model will comprise a technical set-up of a programmable internet relay, a router, solid state switches in addition to the suitable software to control electricity demand at user's premises. The software on appropriate multimedia tool (CD Rom) will be curtailing/shifting electric loads to the most appropriate time of the day following the implemented economic model, which is designed to be maximizing financial benefits to electricity consumers. Additionally the model is targeting a national electrical load be spread-out evenly throughout the year in order to satisfy best economic performance for electricity generation, transmission and distribution. The model is applicable in region managed by the Australian Energy Management Operator (AEMO) covering states of Eastern-, Southern-Australia and Tasmania.