Stability and sensitivity analysis of Be-CoDiS, an epidemiological model to predict the spread of human diseases between countries. Validation with data from the 2014-16 West African Ebola Virus Disease epidemic.

Ebola virus disease is a lethal human and primate disease that requires a particular attention from the international health authorities due to important recent outbreaks in some Western African countries and isolated cases in European and North-America continents. Regarding the emergency of this situation, various decision tools, such as mathematical models, were developed to assist the authorities to focus their efforts in important factors to eradicate Ebola. In a previous work, we have proposed an original deterministic spatial-temporal model, called Be-CoDiS (Between-Countries Disease Spread), to study the evolution of human diseases within and between countries by taking into consideration the movement of people between geographical areas. This model was validated by considering numerical experiments regarding the 2014-16 West African Ebola Virus Disease epidemic. In this article, we propose to perform a stability analysis of Be-CoDiS. Our first objective is to study the equilibrium states of simplified versions of this model, limited to the cases of one an two countries, and to determine their basic reproduction ratios. Then, in order to give some recommendations for the allocation of resources used to control the disease, we perform a sensitivity analysis of those basic reproduction ratios regarding the model parameters. Finally, we validate the obtained results by considering numerical experiments based on data from the 2014-16 West African Ebola Virus Disease epidemic.

Advanced interpretation of subsidence in Murcia (SE Spain) using A-DInSAR data – modelling and validation

Subsidence is a natural hazard that affects wide areas in the world causing important economic costs annually. This phenomenon has occurred in the metropolitan area of Murcia City (SE Spain) as a result of groundwater overexploitation. In this work aquifer system subsidence is investigated using an advanced differential SAR interferometry remote sensing technique (A-DInSAR) called Stable Point Network (SPN). The SPN derived displacement results, mainly the velocity displacement maps and the time series of the displacement, reveal that in the period 2004–2008 the rate of subsidence in Murcia metropolitan area doubled with respect to the previous period from 1995 to 2005. The acceleration of the deformation phenomenon is explained by the drought period started in 2006. The comparison of the temporal evolution of the displacements measured with the extensometers and the SPN technique shows an average absolute error of 3.9±3.8 mm. Finally, results from a finite element model developed to simulate the recorded time history subsidence from known water table height changes compares well with the SPN displacement time series estimations. This result demonstrates the potential of A-DInSAR techniques to validate subsidence prediction models as an alternative to using instrumental ground based techniques for validation.

Data for validation of crash victim simulator. Final report.

National Highway Traffic Safety Administration, Washington, D.C.

Safety status data collection methodology. Volume II - technical report on development and validation of evaluation procedures. Final report.

National Highway Traffic Safety Administration, Crash Avoidance Research Division, Washington, D.C.

Selecting optimal instantiations of data models - Theory and validation of an ex ante approach

The schema of an information system can significantly impact the ability of end users to efficiently and effectively retrieve the information they need. Obtaining quickly the appropriate data increases the likelihood that an organization will make good decisions and respond adeptly to challenges. This research presents and validates a methodology for evaluating, ex ante, the relative desirability of alternative instantiations of a model of data. In contrast to prior research, each instantiation is based on a different formal theory. This research theorizes that the instantiation that yields the lowest weighted average query complexity for a representative sample of information requests is the most desirable instantiation for end-user queries. The theory was validated by an experiment that compared end-user performance using an instantiation of a data structure based on the relational model of data with performance using the corresponding instantiation of the data structure based on the object-relational model of data. Complexity was measured using three different Halstead metrics: program length, difficulty, and effort. For a representative sample of queries, the average complexity using each instantiation was calculated. As theorized, end users querying the instantiation with the lower average complexity made fewer semantic errors, i.e., were more effective at composing queries. (c) 2005 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Spatial and temporal downscaling of solar global radiation and mean air temperature from weather forecast data - an introductory numerical study and validation

This short paper presents a numerical method for spatial and temporal downscaling of solar global radiation and mean air temperature data from global weather forecast models and its validation. The final objective is to develop a prediction algorithm to be integrated in energy management models and forecast of energy harvesting in solar thermal systems of medium/low temperature. Initially, hourly prediction and measurement data of solar global radiation and mean air temperature were obtained, being then numerically downscaled to half-hourly prediction values for the location where measurements were taken. The differences between predictions and measurements were analyzed for more than one year of data of mean air temperature and solar global radiation on clear sky days, resulting in relative daily deviations of around -0.9±3.8% and 0.02±3.92%, respectively.

Portuguese Version of the Suicidal Behaviors Questionnaire-Revised: Validation Data and the Establishment of a Cut-Score for Screening Purposes

The aim of the present study is to provide validation data regarding the Portuguese version of the Suicidal Behaviors Questionnaire Revised in nonclinical individuals. Two studies were undertaken with two different nonclinical samples in order to demonstrate reliability, concurrent, predictive, and construct validity, and in order to establish an appropriate cut-score for nonclinical individuals. A sample of 810 community adults participated in Study 1. Results from this study provided information regarding scale internal consistency, exploratory and confirmatory factor analysis, and concurrent validity. Receiver operating characteristic curve analysis established a cut-off score to be used for screening purposes with nonclinical individuals. A sample of 440 young adults participated in Study 2, which demonstrated scale score internal consistency and 5-month predictive validity. Further, 5-month test-retest reliability was also evaluated and the correlations of SBQ-R scale scores with two other measures that assess constructs related to suicidality, depression and psychache, were also performed. In addition, confirmatory factor analysis was undertaken to demonstrate the robustness of the result obtained in Study 1. Overall, findings supported the psychometric appropriateness of the Portuguese Suicidal Behaviors Questionnaire-Revise

Development of JADE, a new software for the verification and validation of nuclear data libraries

Nuclear cross sections are the pillars onto which the transport simulation of particles and radiations is built on. Since the nuclear data libraries production chain is extremely complex and made of different steps, it is mandatory to foresee stringent verification and validation procedures to be applied to it. The work here presented has been focused on the development of a new python based software called JADE, whose objective is to give a significant help in increasing the level of automation and standardization of these procedures in order to reduce the time passing between new libraries releases and, at the same time, increasing their quality. After an introduction to nuclear fusion (which is the field where the majority of the V\&V action was concentrated for the time being) and to the simulation of particles and radiations transport, the motivations leading to JADE development are discussed. Subsequently, the code general architecture and the implemented benchmarks (both experimental and computational) are described. After that, the results coming from the major application of JADE during the research years are presented. At last, after a final discussion on the objective reached by JADE, the possible brief, mid and long time developments for the project are discussed.

Touristic water demand: analysis and validation of drinking water consumption data and hotel characterization in Benidorm (Spain)

The work analyses the tourist water demand in Benidorm, a sun-and-sand destination ranked fourth in Spain by number of visitors, where tourism competes with local residents, nature, agriculture and industrial sectors for scarce water resources. In particular, we have studied the correlation between the water consumption of 83 hotels in Benidorm and their characteristics and services which can impact water use. For this purpose, we have examined the water consumption billed, by the water utility company HIDRAQUA in the period January 2010 - October 2022, to the tourist structures in the municipality of Benidorm, and we have explored the hotels’ features, thanks to the collaboration of the tourism and hotels association HOSBEC. To give a better understanding and contextualization of our analysis we first described explained the of the complex water supply system and the efforts that have been made to reduce the threat posed by the peculiar climate conditions of the region. We saw that the water consumption per guest has slightly decreased in the recent years and that the tourist flux has increased: the global pandemic posed a stop to travels for more than one year, but now both the tourist flux and the tourist water consumption are reaching pre-pandemic level. We found that larger hotels, and in particular the ones opened all the year, that probably tend to offer more water-demanding service with respect to the seasonal ones, have higher water consumption per bed. From the analysis of the role of the different hotel characteristics over the water demand patterns, we found that water use increases with the increase in the hotel category and in the ratio between the surface area of the swimming pool and hotel size (number of beds). Other factors impacting the consumption are the presence of an on-site laundry for washing the hotel linen, the garden, and the implementation of environmental policies for water-saving.

Iis--integrated Interactome System: A Web-based Platform For The Annotation, Analysis And Visualization Of Protein-metabolite-gene-drug Interactions By Integrating A Variety Of Data Sources And Tools.

High-throughput screening of physical, genetic and chemical-genetic interactions brings important perspectives in the Systems Biology field, as the analysis of these interactions provides new insights into protein/gene function, cellular metabolic variations and the validation of therapeutic targets and drug design. However, such analysis depends on a pipeline connecting different tools that can automatically integrate data from diverse sources and result in a more comprehensive dataset that can be properly interpreted. We describe here the Integrated Interactome System (IIS), an integrative platform with a web-based interface for the annotation, analysis and visualization of the interaction profiles of proteins/genes, metabolites and drugs of interest. IIS works in four connected modules: (i) Submission module, which receives raw data derived from Sanger sequencing (e.g. two-hybrid system); (ii) Search module, which enables the user to search for the processed reads to be assembled into contigs/singlets, or for lists of proteins/genes, metabolites and drugs of interest, and add them to the project; (iii) Annotation module, which assigns annotations from several databases for the contigs/singlets or lists of proteins/genes, generating tables with automatic annotation that can be manually curated; and (iv) Interactome module, which maps the contigs/singlets or the uploaded lists to entries in our integrated database, building networks that gather novel identified interactions, protein and metabolite expression/concentration levels, subcellular localization and computed topological metrics, GO biological processes and KEGG pathways enrichment. This module generates a XGMML file that can be imported into Cytoscape or be visualized directly on the web. We have developed IIS by the integration of diverse databases following the need of appropriate tools for a systematic analysis of physical, genetic and chemical-genetic interactions. IIS was validated with yeast two-hybrid, proteomics and metabolomics datasets, but it is also extendable to other datasets. IIS is freely available online at: http://www.lge.ibi.unicamp.br/lnbio/IIS/.

Selection And Validation Of Reference Genes For Functional Studies In The Calliphoridae Family.

The genera Cochliomyia and Chrysomya contain both obligate and saprophagous flies, which allows the comparison of different feeding habits between closely related species. Among the different strategies for comparing these habits is the use of qPCR to investigate the expression levels of candidate genes involved in feeding behavior. To ensure an accurate measure of the levels of gene expression, it is necessary to normalize the amount of the target gene with the amount of a reference gene having a stable expression across the compared species. Since there is no universal gene that can be used as a reference in functional studies, candidate genes for qPCR data normalization were selected and validated in three Calliphoridae (Diptera) species, Cochliomyia hominivorax Coquerel, Cochliomyia macellaria Fabricius, and Chrysomya albiceps Wiedemann . The expression stability of six genes ( Actin, Gapdh, Rp49, Rps17, α -tubulin, and GstD1) was evaluated among species within the same life stage and between life stages within each species. The expression levels of Actin, Gapdh, and Rp49 were the most stable among the selected genes. These genes can be used as reliable reference genes for functional studies in Calliphoridae using similar experimental settings.

Validation of the Deardorff model for estimating energy balance components for a sugarcane crop

The quantification of the available energy in the environment is important because it determines photosynthesis, evapotranspiration and, therefore, the final yield of crops. Instruments for measuring the energy balance are costly and indirect estimation alternatives are desirable. This study assessed the Deardorff's model performance during a cycle of a sugarcane crop in Piracicaba, State of São Paulo, Brazil, in comparison to the aerodynamic method. This mechanistic model simulates the energy fluxes (sensible, latent heat and net radiation) at three levels (atmosphere, canopy and soil) using only air temperature, relative humidity and wind speed measured at a reference level above the canopy, crop leaf area index, and some pre-calibrated parameters (canopy albedo, soil emissivity, atmospheric transmissivity and hydrological characteristics of the soil). The analysis was made for different time scales, insolation conditions and seasons (spring, summer and autumn). Analyzing all data of 15 minute intervals, the model presented good performance for net radiation simulation in different insolations and seasons. The latent heat flux in the atmosphere and the sensible heat flux in the atmosphere did not present differences in comparison to data from the aerodynamic method during the autumn. The sensible heat flux in the soil was poorly simulated by the model due to the poor performance of the soil water balance method. The Deardorff's model improved in general the flux simulations in comparison to the aerodynamic method when more insolation was available in the environment.