Assessment of strategies for linking the damage and loss assessment methodology to the post-disaster needs assessment

This report was prepared at the request of the United Nations Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC) with support from the Caribbean Catastrophe Risk Insurance Facility (CCRIF) to assess strategies for linking the ECLAC Damage and Loss Assessment (DaLA) Methology to the Post Disaster Needs Assessment (PDNA). Each metholodolgy was individually outlined and their use in the Caribbean context was explored in detail to set the framework or lens through which their linking would be viewed. Other methologies that are used within the recovery process were identified and outlined. A gap analysis was conducted on moving from the PDNA with a focus on initial rapid reponse to DaLA. DaLA training materials were reviewed to assess where improvements can be made to seamlessly move from one methology to the next. Additionally, both DaLA and PDNA reports were reviewed to identify specific areas of information which could serve as common data links, and note how this linkage could inform the overall disaster assessments in the region. This is in addition to noting any similarities or variance in the application of both methologies. Challenges to linking both methodologies were identified such as countries lacking well defined recovery frameworks and their ability to fund or finance recovery efforts, in addition to recurrent challenges in the Caribbean region such as inadequacy of baseline data, human resource and training, and identifying teams to conduct the data collection. Recommendations made in terms of the strategies to be employed for the successful linking of both the DaLA and PDNA Methodologies included: creating and maintaining a recovery framework and baseline data; creation of a minimum requirements list for the successful implementation of PDNA and DaLA implementation; and increasing political will in addition to identify a champion to push the subject.

Inactivation of Matrix-bound Matrix Metalloproteinases by Cross-linking Agents in Acid-etched Dentin

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Stabilization of dentin matrix after cross-linking treatments, in vitro

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Increased durability of resin-dentin bonds following cross-linking treatment

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Linking genetic and environmental factors in amphibian disease risk

A central question in evolutionary biology is how interactions between organisms and the environment shape genetic differentiation. The pathogen Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd) has caused variable population declines in the lowland leopard frog (Lithobates yavapaiensis); thus, disease has potentially shaped, or been shaped by, host genetic diversity. Environmental factors can also influence both amphibian immunity and Bd virulence, confounding our ability to assess the genetic effects on disease dynamics. Here, we used genetics, pathogen dynamics, and environmental data to characterize L.yavapaiensis populations, estimate migration, and determine relative contributions of genetic and environmental factors in predicting Bd dynamics. We found that the two uninfected populations belonged to a single genetic deme, whereas each infected population was genetically unique. We detected an outlier locus that deviated from neutral expectations and was significantly correlated with mortality within populations. Across populations, only environmental variables predicted infection intensity, whereas environment and genetics predicted infection prevalence, and genetic diversity alone predicted mortality. At one locality with geothermally elevated water temperatures, migration estimates revealed source-sink dynamics that have likely prevented local adaptation. We conclude that integrating genetic and environmental variation among populations provides a better understanding of Bd spatial epidemiology, generating more effective conservation management strategies for mitigating amphibian declines.

A review of existing and potential New World and Australasian vertebrate pesticides with a rationale for linking use patterns to registration requirements

Registration is a necessarily sophisticated evaluation process applied to vertebrate pesticide products. Although conducted to minimize any potential impacts upon public health, the environment and food production, the all-encompassing process of registration can stifle innovation. Vertebrate pesticides are rarely used to control pest animals in food crops. In contrast to agrochemicals, relatively small amounts of vertebrate pesticides are used (50.1%), usually in solid or paste baits, and generally by discrete application methods rather than by broad-scale spray applications. We present a hierarchy or sliding scale of typical data requirements relative to application techniques, to help clarify an evolving science-based approach which focuses on requiring data to address key scientific questions while allowing waivers where additional data have minor value. Such an approach will facilitate the development and delivery of increasingly humane, species-targeted, low residue pesticides in the New World, along with the phasing out of less desirable chemicals that continue to be used due to a lack of alternatives.

Spectroscopic Study on the Structural Differences of Thermally Induced Cross-Linking Segments in Emeraldine Salt and Base Forms of Polyaniline

This paper reports the spectroscopic study on the structural differences of thermally induced cross-linking segments in polyaniline in its emeraldine salt (PANI-ES) and base (PANI-EB) forms. Casting films of PANI-ES (ES-film) and PANI-EB (EB-film) were prepared and heated at 150 degrees C under atmospheric air for 30 min. Raman spectra excited at 632.8 nm of heated ES-film presented the characteristic bands of phenazine-like structures at 1638, 1392, and 575 cm(-1), whereas EB-film showed lower relative intensities for these bands. The lower content of phenazine-like segments in heated EB-film is related to residual polaronic segments from preparation procedures, as revealed by Raman. This statement was confirmed by a sequence of thermal and doping experiments in both films. Quantum-chemical calculations by density functional theory (DFT) and time-dependent density functional theory (TD-DFT) showed that the phenazine-like structure presents the intense Raman band at 1350 cm(-1) due to heterocycle breathing mode, and the non-phenazine-like structure (substituted hydrophenazine-type) presents higher energy for HOMO-LUMO transition, indicating the lack of conjugation in the heterocycle compared with the phenazine-like structure. According to experimental and theoretical data reported here, it is proposed that only thermally treated PANI-ES presents phenazine-like rings, whereas PANI-EB presents heterocyclic non-aromatic structures.

Frame-driven Extraction of Linked Data and Ontologies from Text

Ontology design and population -core aspects of semantic technologies- re- cently have become fields of great interest due to the increasing need of domain-specific knowledge bases that can boost the use of Semantic Web. For building such knowledge resources, the state of the art tools for ontology design require a lot of human work. Producing meaningful schemas and populating them with domain-specific data is in fact a very difficult and time-consuming task. Even more if the task consists in modelling knowledge at a web scale. The primary aim of this work is to investigate a novel and flexible method- ology for automatically learning ontology from textual data, lightening the human workload required for conceptualizing domain-specific knowledge and populating an extracted schema with real data, speeding up the whole ontology production process. Here computational linguistics plays a fundamental role, from automati- cally identifying facts from natural language and extracting frame of relations among recognized entities, to producing linked data with which extending existing knowledge bases or creating new ones. In the state of the art, automatic ontology learning systems are mainly based on plain-pipelined linguistics classifiers performing tasks such as Named Entity recognition, Entity resolution, Taxonomy and Relation extraction [11]. These approaches present some weaknesses, specially in capturing struc- tures through which the meaning of complex concepts is expressed [24]. Humans, in fact, tend to organize knowledge in well-defined patterns, which include participant entities and meaningful relations linking entities with each other. In literature, these structures have been called Semantic Frames by Fill- 6 Introduction more [20], or more recently as Knowledge Patterns [23]. Some NLP studies has recently shown the possibility of performing more accurate deep parsing with the ability of logically understanding the structure of discourse [7]. In this work, some of these technologies have been investigated and em- ployed to produce accurate ontology schemas. The long-term goal is to collect large amounts of semantically structured information from the web of crowds, through an automated process, in order to identify and investigate the cognitive patterns used by human to organize their knowledge.

Intravaginal practices, bacterial vaginosis, and HIV infection in women: individual participant data meta-analysis

Background Identifying modifiable factors that increase women's vulnerability to HIV is a critical step in developing effective female-initiated prevention interventions. The primary objective of this study was to pool individual participant data from prospective longitudinal studies to investigate the association between intravaginal practices and acquisition of HIV infection among women in sub-Saharan Africa. Secondary objectives were to investigate associations between intravaginal practices and disrupted vaginal flora; and between disrupted vaginal flora and HIV acquisition. Methods and Findings We conducted a meta-analysis of individual participant data from 13 prospective cohort studies involving 14,874 women, of whom 791 acquired HIV infection during 21,218 woman years of follow-up. Data were pooled using random-effects meta-analysis. The level of between-study heterogeneity was low in all analyses (I2 values 0.0%–16.1%). Intravaginal use of cloth or paper (pooled adjusted hazard ratio [aHR] 1.47, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.18–1.83), insertion of products to dry or tighten the vagina (aHR 1.31, 95% CI 1.00–1.71), and intravaginal cleaning with soap (aHR 1.24, 95% CI 1.01–1.53) remained associated with HIV acquisition after controlling for age, marital status, and number of sex partners in the past 3 months. Intravaginal cleaning with soap was also associated with the development of intermediate vaginal flora and bacterial vaginosis in women with normal vaginal flora at baseline (pooled adjusted odds ratio [OR] 1.24, 95% CI 1.04–1.47). Use of cloth or paper was not associated with the development of disrupted vaginal flora. Intermediate vaginal flora and bacterial vaginosis were each associated with HIV acquisition in multivariable models when measured at baseline (aHR 1.54 and 1.69, p<0.001) or at the visit before the estimated date of HIV infection (aHR 1.41 and 1.53, p<0.001), respectively. Conclusions This study provides evidence to suggest that some intravaginal practices increase the risk of HIV acquisition but a direct causal pathway linking intravaginal cleaning with soap, disruption of vaginal flora, and HIV acquisition has not yet been demonstrated. More consistency in the definition and measurement of specific intravaginal practices is warranted so that the effects of specific intravaginal practices and products can be further elucidated.

Trauma registry record linkage: methodological approach to benefit from complementary data using the example of the German Pelvic Injury Register and the TraumaRegister DGU(®)

In Germany, hospitals can deliver data from patients with pelvic fractures selectively or twofold to two different trauma registries, i.e. the German Pelvic Injury Register (PIR) and the TraumaRegister DGU(®) (TR). Both registers are anonymous and differ in composition and content. We describe the methodological approach of linking these registries and reidentifying twofold documented patients. The aim of the approach is to create an intersection set that benefit from complementary data of each registry, respectively. Furthermore, the concordance of data entry of some clinical variables entered in both registries was evaluated.

Predictive oncology: a review of multidisciplinary, multiscale in silico modeling linking phenotype, morphology and growth.

Empirical evidence and theoretical studies suggest that the phenotype, i.e., cellular- and molecular-scale dynamics, including proliferation rate and adhesiveness due to microenvironmental factors and gene expression that govern tumor growth and invasiveness, also determine gross tumor-scale morphology. It has been difficult to quantify the relative effect of these links on disease progression and prognosis using conventional clinical and experimental methods and observables. As a result, successful individualized treatment of highly malignant and invasive cancers, such as glioblastoma, via surgical resection and chemotherapy cannot be offered and outcomes are generally poor. What is needed is a deterministic, quantifiable method to enable understanding of the connections between phenotype and tumor morphology. Here, we critically assess advantages and disadvantages of recent computational modeling efforts (e.g., continuum, discrete, and cellular automata models) that have pursued this understanding. Based on this assessment, we review a multiscale, i.e., from the molecular to the gross tumor scale, mathematical and computational "first-principle" approach based on mass conservation and other physical laws, such as employed in reaction-diffusion systems. Model variables describe known characteristics of tumor behavior, and parameters and functional relationships across scales are informed from in vitro, in vivo and ex vivo biology. We review the feasibility of this methodology that, once coupled to tumor imaging and tumor biopsy or cell culture data, should enable prediction of tumor growth and therapy outcome through quantification of the relation between the underlying dynamics and morphological characteristics. In particular, morphologic stability analysis of this mathematical model reveals that tumor cell patterning at the tumor-host interface is regulated by cell proliferation, adhesion and other phenotypic characteristics: histopathology information of tumor boundary can be inputted to the mathematical model and used as a phenotype-diagnostic tool to predict collective and individual tumor cell invasion of surrounding tissue. This approach further provides a means to deterministically test effects of novel and hypothetical therapy strategies on tumor behavior.

A reconstruction of radiocarbon production and total solar irradiance from the Holocene ¹⁴C and CO₂ records: implications of data and model uncertainties

Radiocarbon production, solar activity, total solar irradiance (TSI) and solar-induced climate change are reconstructed for the Holocene (10 to 0 kyr BP), and TSI is predicted for the next centuries. The IntCal09/SHCal04 radiocarbon and ice core CO2 records, reconstructions of the geomagnetic dipole, and instrumental data of solar activity are applied in the Bern3D-LPJ, a fully featured Earth system model of intermediate complexity including a 3-D dynamic ocean, ocean sediments, and a dynamic vegetation model, and in formulations linking radiocarbon production, the solar modulation potential, and TSI. Uncertainties are assessed using Monte Carlo simulations and bounding scenarios. Transient climate simulations span the past 21 thousand years, thereby considering the time lags and uncertainties associated with the last glacial termination. Our carbon-cycle-based modern estimate of radiocarbon production of 1.7 atoms cm−2 s−1 is lower than previously reported for the cosmogenic nuclide production model by Masarik and Beer (2009) and is more in-line with Kovaltsov et al. (2012). In contrast to earlier studies, periods of high solar activity were quite common not only in recent millennia, but throughout the Holocene. Notable deviations compared to earlier reconstructions are also found on decadal to centennial timescales. We show that earlier Holocene reconstructions, not accounting for the interhemispheric gradients in radiocarbon, are biased low. Solar activity is during 28% of the time higher than the modern average (650 MeV), but the absolute values remain weakly constrained due to uncertainties in the normalisation of the solar modulation to instrumental data. A recently published solar activity–TSI relationship yields small changes in Holocene TSI of the order of 1 W m−2 with a Maunder Minimum irradiance reduction of 0.85 ± 0.16 W m−2. Related solar-induced variations in global mean surface air temperature are simulated to be within 0.1 K. Autoregressive modelling suggests a declining trend of solar activity in the 21st century towards average Holocene conditions.

Linking megathrust earthquakes to brittle deformation in a fossil accretionary complex

Seismological data from recent subduction earthquakes suggest that megathrust earthquakes induce transient stress changes in the upper plate that shift accretionary wedges into an unstable state. These stress changes have, however, never been linked to geological structures preserved in fossil accretionary complexes. The importance of coseismically induced wedge failure has therefore remained largely elusive. Here we show that brittle faulting and vein formation in the palaeo-accretionary complex of the European Alps record stress changes generated by subduction-related earthquakes. Early veins formed at shallow levels by bedding-parallel shear during coseismic compression of the outer wedge. In contrast, subsequent vein formation occurred by normal faulting and extensional fracturing at deeper levels in response to coseismic extension of the inner wedge. Our study demonstrates how mineral veins can be used to reveal the dynamics of outer and inner wedges, which respond in opposite ways to megathrust earthquakes by compressional and extensional faulting, respectively.

Linking Applied Ethnobotany to Social Learning: A Participatory Tool for the Promotion of Indigenous Plants Use in Matutuíne, Southern Mozambique

In its search for pathways towards a more sustainable management of natural resources, development oriented research increasingly faces the challenge to develop new concepts and tools based on transdisciplinarity. Transdisciplinarity can, in terms of an idealized goal, be defined as a research approach that identifies and solves problems not only independently of disciplinary boundaries, but also including the knowledge and perceptions of non-scientific actors in a participatory process. In Mozambique, the Centre for Development and Environment (Berne, Switzerland), in partnership with Impacto and Helvetas (Maputo, Mozambique), has elaborated a new transdisciplinary tool to identify indigenous plants with a potential for commercialization. The tool combines methods from applied ethnobotany with participatory research in a social learning process. This approach was devised to support a development project aimed at creating alternative sources of income for rural communities of Matutuíne district, Southern Mozambique, while reducing the pressure on the natural environment. The methodology, which has been applied and tested, is innovative in that it combines important data collection through participatory research with a social learning process involving both local and external actors. This mutual learning process provides a space for complementary forms of knowledge to meet, eventually leading to the adoption of an integrated approach to natural resource management with an understanding of its ecological, socio-economic and cultural aspects; local stakeholders are included in the identification of potentials for sustainable development. Sustainable development itself, as a normative concept, can only be defined through social learning and consensus building between the local and external stakeholders.

VIRTOPSY--scientific documentation, reconstruction and animation in forensic: individual and real 3D data based geo-metric approach including optical body/object surface and radiological CT/MRI scanning.

Until today, most of the documentation of forensic relevant medical findings is limited to traditional 2D photography, 2D conventional radiographs, sketches and verbal description. There are still some limitations of the classic documentation in forensic science especially if a 3D documentation is necessary. The goal of this paper is to demonstrate new 3D real data based geo-metric technology approaches. This paper present approaches to a 3D geo-metric documentation of injuries on the body surface and internal injuries in the living and deceased cases. Using modern imaging methods such as photogrammetry, optical surface and radiological CT/MRI scanning in combination it could be demonstrated that a real, full 3D data based individual documentation of the body surface and internal structures is possible in a non-invasive and non-destructive manner. Using the data merging/fusing and animation possibilities, it is possible to answer reconstructive questions of the dynamic development of patterned injuries (morphologic imprints) and to evaluate the possibility, that they are matchable or linkable to suspected injury-causing instruments. For the first time, to our knowledge, the method of optical and radiological 3D scanning was used to document the forensic relevant injuries of human body in combination with vehicle damages. By this complementary documentation approach, individual forensic real data based analysis and animation were possible linking body injuries to vehicle deformations or damages. These data allow conclusions to be drawn for automobile accident research, optimization of vehicle safety (pedestrian and passenger) and for further development of crash dummies. Real 3D data based documentation opens a new horizon for scientific reconstruction and animation by bringing added value and a real quality improvement in forensic science.