Economic Impact of E.coli 0111 Outbreak in 1995 in Australia

Increased incidence of food-borne illnesses is a matter of significant concern for the community and the government alike. An outbreak of E.coli O111 that occurred in Australia in 1995 affected 200 people of whom 22 developed HUS while one person died. This study analyses the economic costs of the outbreak. The total cost of the outbreak is estimated to be A$5.61 million. Productivity loss represented the highest percentage of outbreak costs (66%) due to death, disability and chronic illness. The direct medical costs contributed 33%. The estimated loss could be even higher if all costs could be quantified. Nevertheless, the findings provide an idea to the policy maker regarding the extent and nature of the damage that could result from an outbreak. The severity of the damage warrants allocation of necessary resources to prevent such occurrences.

Colorectal cancer screening in Australia: an economic evaluation of a potential biennial screening program using faecal occult blood tests

Objective: To evaluate whether the introduction of a national, co-ordinated screening program using the faecal occult blood test represents 'value-for-money' from the perspective of the Australian Government as third-party funder. Methods: The annual equivalent costs and consequences of a biennial screening program in 'steady-state' operation were estimated for the Australian population using 1996 as the reference year. Disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) and the years of life lost (YLLs) averted, and the health service costs were modelled, based on the epidemiology and the costs of colorectal cancer in Australia together with the mortality reduction achieved in randomised controlled trials. Uncertainty in the model was examined using Monte Carlo simulation methods. Results: We estimate a minimum or 'base program' of screening those aged 55 to 69 years could avert 250 deaths per annum (95% uncertainty interval 99-400), at a gross cost of $A55 million (95% UI $A46 million to $A96 million) and a gross incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of $A17,000/DALY (95% UI $A13,000/DALY to $A52,000/DALY). Extending the program to include 70 to 74-year-olds is a more effective option (cheaper and higher health gain) than including the 50 to 54-year-olds. Conclusions: The findings of this study support the case for a national program directed at the 55 to 69-year-old age group with extension to 70 to 74-year-olds if there are sufficient resources. The pilot tests recently announced in Australia provide an important opportunity to consider the age range for screening and the sources of uncertainty, identified in the modelled evaluation, to assist decisions on implementing a full national program.

Why are health care interventions delivered over the internet? A systematic review of the published literature

Background: As Internet use grows, health interventions are increasingly being delivered online. Pioneering researchers are using the networking potential of the Internet, and several of them have evaluated these interventions. Objective: The objective was to review the reasons why health interventions have been delivered on the Internet and to reflect on the work of the pioneers in this field in order to inform future research. Methods: We conducted a qualitative systematic review of peer-reviewed evaluations of health interventions delivered to a known client/patient group using networked features of the Internet. Papers were reviewed for the reasons given for using the Internet, and these reasons were categorized. Results: We included studies evaluating 28 interventions plus 9 interventions that were evaluated in pilot studies. The interventions were aimed at a range of health conditions. Reasons for Internet delivery included low cost and resource implications due to the nature of the technology; reducing cost and increasing convenience for users; reduction of health service costs; overcoming isolation of users; the need for timely information; stigma reduction; and increased user and supplier control of the intervention. A small number of studies gave the existence of Internet interventions as the only reason for undertaking an evaluation of this mode of delivery. Conclusions: One must remain alert for the unintended effects of Internet delivery of health interventions due to the potential for reinforcing the problems that the intervention was designed to help. Internet delivery overcomes isolation of time, mobility, and geography, but it may not be a substitute for face-to-face contact. Future evaluations need to incorporate the evaluation of cost, not only to the health service but also to users and their social networks. When researchers report the outcomes of Internet-delivered health care interventions, it is important that they clearly state why they chose to use the Internet, preferably backing up their decision with theoretical models and exploratory work. Evaluation of the effectiveness of a health care intervention delivered by the Internet needs to include comparison with more traditional modes of delivery to answer the following question: What are the added benefits or disadvantages of Internet use that are particular to this mode of delivery? © Griffiths, Frances, Lindenmeyer, Antje, Powell, John, Thorogood, Margaret.

Culture and the psychological impacts of natural disasters: Implications for disaster management and disaster mental health

In recent decades, natural disasters have caused extensive losses and damages to human psychological wellbeing, economy, and society. It has been argued that cultural factors such as social values, traditions, and attachment to a location influence communities facing and responding to natural disasters. However, the issue of culture in disaster mental health seems to have received limited attention in policy and practice. This review highlights the importance of cultural background in the assessment of vulnerability to the psychological impacts of disasters, disaster preparedness, and provision of disaster mental health services. In particular, this paper suggests the importance of cultural competence in the planning and delivery of effective disaster mental health services. In order to address the varying circumstances of people with different cultural backgrounds, disaster mental health services must be developed in a culturally sensitive manner. Development of culturally competent disaster mental health services requires significant changes in policy making, administration, and direct service provision

A mixed methods investigation of parental factors in non-attendance at general paediatric hospital outpatient appointments

Non-attendance at paediatric outpatient appointments results in delayed diagnosis and treatment, putting children at risk of avoidable ill health, and incurring considerable health service costs. Links between missed appointments and clinical, socio-demographic, and access-related factors have been indicated, but parental cognitions associated with non-attendance have yet to be investigated. The aims of this project were to evaluate the effectiveness and theoretical bases of existing interventions designed to reduce non-attendance; to consider the ways in which missed appointments are managed by healthcare providers; to explore parents’ beliefs and experiences of attending and missing appointments; and to investigate the factors underlying these beliefs. A systematic literature review focusing on non-attendance interventions was conducted Within a mixed methods framework, interviews were conducted with healthcare professionals, subsequent interviews were conducted with parents who had attended or missed a General Paediatric outpatient appointment, and a cross-sectional questionnaire study of parents’ beliefs was implemented. The systematic review revealed that text message appointment reminders are effective at reducing non-attendance rates, but that no interventions have thus far been developed using theories of behaviour. Healthcare professionals recognised both barriers and parents’ beliefs as influences on attendance, but also believed there were ‘types’ of families who miss appointments. Healthcare professionals disagreed somewhat about how non-attendance should best be managed. The parent interview study found six themes. The findings reflect parents’ perceptions about the importance of attending and of their ability to attend. The results of the questionnaire study corroborate this structure of beliefs as the analysis produced two factors, the perceived ‘worth’ of attending and anticipated ‘worry’ when attending. This thesis demonstrates an original approach to investigating non-attendance at children’s outpatient appointments, using mixed methods and adopting a psychological rather than service-use perspective. The findings contribute to Health Psychology theory and offer recommendations for healthcare providers.

Improving the economic value of photographic screening for optical coherence tomography-detectable macular oedema:a prospective, multicentre, UK study

Objectives: To determine the best photographic surrogate markers for detecting sight-threatening macular oedema (MO) in people with diabetes attending UK national screening programmes. Design: A multicentre, prospective, observational cohort study of 3170 patients with photographic signs of diabetic retinopathy visible within the macular region [exudates within two disc diameters, microaneurysms/dot haemorrhages (M/DHs) and blot haemorrhages (BHs)] who were recruited from seven study centres. Setting: All patients were recruited and imaged at one of seven study centres in Aberdeen, Birmingham, Dundee, Dunfermline, Edinburgh, Liverpool and Oxford. Participants: Subjects with features of diabetic retinopathy visible within the macular region attending one of seven diabetic retinal screening programmes. Interventions: Alternative referral criteria for suspected MO based on photographic surrogate markers; an optical coherence tomographic examination in addition to the standard digital retinal photograph. Main outcome measures: (1) To determine the best method to detect sight-threatening MO in people with diabetes using photographic surrogate markers. (2) Sensitivity and specificity estimates to assess the costs and consequences of using alternative strategies. (3) Modelled long-term costs and quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs). Results: Prevalence of MO was strongly related to the presence of lesions and was roughly five times higher in subjects with exudates or BHs or more than two M/DHs within one disc diameter. Having worse visual acuity was associated with about a fivefold higher prevalence of MO. Current manual screening grading schemes that ignore visual acuity or the presence of M/DHs could be improved by taking these into account. Health service costs increase substantially with more sensitive/less specific strategies. A fully automated strategy, using the automated detection of patterns of photographic surrogate markers, is superior to all current manual grading schemes for detecting MO in people with diabetes. The addition of optical coherence tomography (OCT) to each strategy, prior to referral, results in a reduction in costs to the health service with no decrement in the number of MO cases detected. Conclusions: Compared with all current manual grading schemes, for the same sensitivity, a fully automated strategy, using the automated detection of patterns of photographic surrogate markers, achieves a higher specificity for detecting MO in people with diabetes, especially if visual acuity is included in the automated strategy. Overall, costs to the health service are likely to increase if more sensitive referral strategies are adopted over more specific screening strategies for MO, for only very small gains in QALYs. The addition of OCT to each screening strategy, prior to referral, results in a reduction in costs to the health service with no decrement in the number of MO cases detected. © Queen's Printer and Controller of HMSO 2013.

Cost of illness in benign prostatic hyperplasia: A review

The paper provides a systematic review on the cost-of-illness studies in an age-associated condition with high prevalence, benign prostatic hyperplasia (BPH), published in Medline between 2005 and 2015. Overall 11 studies were included, which were conducted in 8 countries. In the US, the annual direct medical costs per patient ranged from $255 to $5,729, while in Europe from €253 to €1,251. In 2008, in the UK total annual direct medical costs of BPH were £180.8 million at national level. In the US, overall costs of BPH management in the private sector were estimated at $3.9 billion annually, of which $500 million was attributable to productivity loss (year 1999). Due to demographic factors and possible surgical innovations in the field of urology, the costs of BPH are likely to increase in the future. Over the next decade the age of retirement is projected to rise, consequently, the indirect costs related to aging-associated conditions such as BPH are expected to soar. To promote the transparent and cost-effective management of BPH, development of rational clinical guidelines would be essential that may lead to significant improvement in quality of care as well as reduction in healthcare expenditure.

Does management capacity increase organizational performance? An empirical analysis of public housing agencies

Since the 1990s, scholars have paid special attention to public management’s role in theory and research under the assumption that effective management is one of the primary means for achieving superior performance. To some extent, this was influenced by popular business writings of the 1980s as well as the reinventing literature of the 1990s. A number of case studies but limited quantitative research papers have been published showing that management matters in the performance of public organizations. ^ My study examined whether or not management capacity increased organizational performance using quantitative techniques. The specific research problem analyzed was whether significant differences existed between high and average performing public housing agencies on select criteria identified in the Government Performance Project (GPP) management capacity model, and whether this model could predict outcome performance measures in a statistically significant manner, while controlling for exogenous influences. My model included two of four GPP management subsystems (human resources and information technology), integration and alignment of subsystems, and an overall managing for results framework. It also included environmental and client control variables that were hypothesized to affect performance independent of management action. ^ Descriptive results of survey responses showed high performing agencies with better scores on most high performance dimensions of individual criteria, suggesting support for the model; however, quantitative analysis found limited statistically significant differences between high and average performers and limited predictive power of the model. My analysis led to the following major conclusions: past performance was the strongest predictor of present performance; high unionization hurt performance; and budget related criterion mattered more for high performance than other model factors. As to the specific research question, management capacity may be necessary but it is not sufficient to increase performance. ^ The research suggested managers may benefit by implementing best practices identified through the GPP model. The usefulness of the model could be improved by adding direct service delivery to the model, which may also improve its predictive power. Finally, there are abundant tested concepts and tools designed to improve system performance that are available for practitioners designed to improve management subsystem support of direct service delivery.^

White-nose syndrome initiates a cascade of physiologic disturbances in the hibernating bat host

Acknowledgments This project was financially supported by the US Geological Survey through a cooperative agreement with the University of Wisconsin – Madison. We are indebted to Dave and Jennifer Redell and Paul White from the Wisconsin Department of Natural Resources for collecting the animals used to complete this study and for assisting with data collection. We thank Melissa Behr for assistance with necropsies and NWHC Animal Care Staff for their help with set-up and maintenance of animals. We thank Lobke Vaanholt and Catherine Hambly (University of Aberdeen, Scotland) for their expertise and coordination in the analyses of the DLW blood samples. Funds were used for direct project costs only. Use of trade, product, or firm names is for descriptive purposes only and does not imply endorsement by the US Government.

Health Knowledge, Attitudes, and Practices among Street Children in LMICs

Background: Worldwide, it is estimated that there are up to 150 million street children. Street children are an understudied, vulnerable population. While many studies have characterized street children’s physical health, few have addressed the circumstances and barriers to their utilization of health services.

Methods: A systematic literature review was conducted to understand the barriers and facilitators that street children face when accessing healthcare in low and middle income countries. Six databases were used to search for peer review literature and one database and Google Search engine were used to find grey literature (theses, dissertations, reports, etc.). There were no exclusions based on study design. Studies were eligible for inclusion if the study population included street children, the study location was a low and middle income country defined by the World Bank, AND whose subject pertained to healthcare.

In addition, a cross-sectional study was conducted between May 2015 and August 2015 with the goal of understanding knowledge, attitudes, and health seeking practices of street children residing in Battambang, Cambodia. Time location and purposive sampling were used to recruit community (control) and street children. Both boys and girls between the ages of 10 and 18 were recruited. Data was collected through a verbally administered survey. The knowledge, attitudes and health seeking practices of community and street children were compared to determine potential differences in healthcare utilization.

Results: Of the 2933 abstracts screened for inclusion in the systematic literature review, eleven articles met all the inclusion criteria and were found to be relevant. Cost and perceived stigma appeared to be the largest barriers street children faced when attempting to seek care. Street children preferred to receive care from a hospital. However, negative experiences and mistreatment by health providers deterred children from going there. Instead, street children would often self treat and/or purchase medicine from a pharmacy or drug vendor. Family and peer support were found to be important for facilitating treatment.

The survey found similar results to the systematic review. Forty one community and thirty four street children were included in the analysis. Both community and street children reported the hospital as their top choice for care. When asked if someone went with them to seek care, both community and street children reported that family members, usually mothers, accompanied them. Community and street children both reported perceived stigma. All children had good knowledge of preventative care.

Conclusions: While most current services lack the proper accommodations for street children, there is a great potential to adapt them to better address street children’s needs. Street children need health services that are sensitive to their situation. Subsidies in health service costs or provision of credit may be ways to reduce constraints street children face when deciding to seek healthcare. Health worker education and interventions to reduce stigma are needed to create a positive environment in which street children are admitted and treated for health concerns.

Identification des grands utilisateurs de soins de santé chez les patients souffrant de la douleur chronique non cancéreuse et suivis en soins de première ligne

Contexte: La douleur chronique non cancéreuse (DCNC) génère des retombées économiques et sociétales importantes. L’identification des patients à risque élevé d’être de grands utilisateurs de soins de santé pourrait être d’une grande utilité; en améliorant leur prise en charge, il serait éventuellement possible de réduire leurs coûts de soins de santé. Objectif: Identifier les facteurs prédictifs bio-psycho-sociaux des grands utilisateurs de soins de santé chez les patients souffrant de DCNC et suivis en soins de première ligne. Méthodologie: Des patients souffrant d’une DCNC modérée à sévère depuis au moins six mois et bénéficiant une ordonnance valide d’un analgésique par un médecin de famille ont été recrutés dans des pharmacies communautaires du territoire du Réseau universitaire intégré de santé (RUIS), de l’Université de Montréal entre Mai 2009 et Janvier 2010. Ce dernier est composé des six régions suivantes : Mauricie et centre du Québec, Laval, Montréal, Laurentides, Lanaudière et Montérégie. Les caractéristiques bio-psycho-sociales des participants ont été documentées à l’aide d’un questionnaire écrit et d’une entrevue téléphonique au moment du recrutement. Les coûts directs de santé ont été estimés à partir des soins et des services de santé reçus au cours de l’année précédant et suivant le recrutement et identifiés à partir de la base de données de la Régie d’Assurance maladie du Québec, RAMQ (assureur publique de la province du Québec). Ces coûts incluaient ceux des hospitalisations reliées à la douleur, des visites à l’urgence, des soins ambulatoires et de la médication prescrite pour le traitement de la douleur et la gestion des effets secondaires des analgésiques. Les grands utilisateurs des soins de santé ont été définis comme étant ceux faisant partie du quartile le plus élevé de coûts directs annuels en soins de santé dans l’année suivant le recrutement. Des modèles de régression logistique multivariés et le critère d’information d’Akaike ont permis d’identifier les facteurs prédictifs des coûts directs élevés en soins de santé. Résultats: Le coût direct annuel médian en soins de santé chez les grands utilisateurs de soins de santé (63 patients) était de 7 627 CAD et de 1 554 CAD pour les utilisateurs réguliers (188 patients). Le modèle prédictif final du risque d’être un grand utilisateur de soins de santé incluait la douleur localisée au niveau des membres inférieurs (OR = 3,03; 95% CI: 1,20 - 7,65), la réduction de la capacité fonctionnelle liée à la douleur (OR = 1,24; 95% CI: 1,03 - 1,48) et les coûts directs en soins de santé dans l’année précédente (OR = 17,67; 95% CI: 7,90 - 39,48). Les variables «sexe», «comorbidité», «dépression» et «attitude envers la guérison médicale» étaient également retenues dans le modèle prédictif final. Conclusion: Les patients souffrant d’une DCNC au niveau des membres inférieurs et présentant une détérioration de la capacité fonctionnelle liée à la douleur comptent parmi ceux les plus susceptibles d’être de grands utilisateurs de soins et de services. Le coût direct en soins de santé dans l’année précédente était également un facteur prédictif important. Améliorer la prise en charge chez cette catégorie de patients pourrait influencer favorablement leur état de santé et par conséquent les coûts assumés par le système de santé.

Identiteetin- ja käyttöoikeuksien hallinnan kustannus- ja tulosvaikutukset

Tämän tutkimuksen päätavoitteena oli luoda laskentamalli identiteetin- ja käyttöoikeuksien hallintajärjestelmien kustannus- ja tulosvaikutuksista. Mallin tarkoitus oli toimia järjestelmätoimittajien apuvälineenä, jolla mahdolliset asiakkaat voidaan paremmin vakuuttaa järjestelmän kustannushyödyistä myyntitilanteessa. Vastaavia kustannusvaikutuksia mittaavia malleja on rakennettu hyvin vähän, ja tässä tutkimuksessa rakennettu malli eroaa niistä sekä järjestelmätoimittajan työkustannusten että tietoturvariskien huomioimisen osalta. Laskentamallin toimivuuden todentamiseksi syntynyttä laskentamallia testattiin kahdessa yrityksessä, joiden käytössä on keskitetty identiteetinhallintajärjestelmä. Testaus suoritettiin syöttämällä yrityksen tiedot laskentamalliin ja vertaamalla mallin antamia tuloksia yrityksen havaitsemiin kustannusvaikutuksiin. Sekä kirjallisuuskatsauksen että laskentamallin testaamisen perusteella voidaan todeta, että identiteetinhallintaprosessin merkittävimmät kustannustekijät ovat identiteettien luomiseen ja muutoksiin kuluva työaika sekä näiden toimintojen aiheuttama työntekijän tehokkuuden laskeminen prosessin aikana. Tutkimuksen perusteella keskitettyjen identiteetinhallintajärjestelmien avulla on mahdollista saavuttaa merkittäviä kustannussäästöjä identiteetinhallintaprosessin toiminnoista, lisenssikustannuksista sekä IT-palvelukustannuksista. Kaikki kustannussäästöt eivät kuitenkaan ole konkreettisia, vaan liittyvät esimerkiksi työtehokkuuden nousemiseen järjestelmän ansiosta. Kustannusvaikutusten lisäksi identiteetinhallintajärjestelmät tarjoavat muita hyötyjä, joiden rahallisen arvon laskeminen on erittäin haastavaa. Laskentamallin käytön haasteina ovatkin konkreettisten ja epäsuorien kustannussäästöjen tunnistaminen ja arvottaminen sekä investoinnin kokonaishyötyjen arvioinnin vaikeus.

Prophylactic antibiotics for the prevention of cellulitis

Background: Cellulitis of the lower leg accounts for 2-3% of hospital admissions (Cox et al, 1998), with an average length of in-patient stay of nine days. Studies have reported that up to half of these patients suffer further episodes (Cox et al, 1998; Dupuy et al, 1999). Reducing the recurrence of cellulitis could therefore have a significant impact on both patient morbidity and NHS costs. Aims: To assess whether prophylactic antibiotics prescribed after an episode of cellulitis of the leg results in fewer subsequent attacks and reduced health service costs (PATCH prophylactic antibiotics for the treatment of cellulitis at home). Methods: This article describes two related studies in which participants are randomised to receive either 12 months of prophylaxis (PATCH I) or six months of prophylaxis (PATCH II). The PATCH I study recruits only patients with recurrent disease defined as two or more episodes of cellulitis in the last three years. PATCH II has more open criteria and includes patients with a first episode of cellulitis and also participants with recurrent disease. It is expected that 260 patients will be recruited into PATCH I and 400 patients into PATCH II.

Identification des grands utilisateurs de soins de santé chez les patients souffrant de la douleur chronique non cancéreuse et suivis en soins de première ligne

Contexte: La douleur chronique non cancéreuse (DCNC) génère des retombées économiques et sociétales importantes. L’identification des patients à risque élevé d’être de grands utilisateurs de soins de santé pourrait être d’une grande utilité; en améliorant leur prise en charge, il serait éventuellement possible de réduire leurs coûts de soins de santé. Objectif: Identifier les facteurs prédictifs bio-psycho-sociaux des grands utilisateurs de soins de santé chez les patients souffrant de DCNC et suivis en soins de première ligne. Méthodologie: Des patients souffrant d’une DCNC modérée à sévère depuis au moins six mois et bénéficiant une ordonnance valide d’un analgésique par un médecin de famille ont été recrutés dans des pharmacies communautaires du territoire du Réseau universitaire intégré de santé (RUIS), de l’Université de Montréal entre Mai 2009 et Janvier 2010. Ce dernier est composé des six régions suivantes : Mauricie et centre du Québec, Laval, Montréal, Laurentides, Lanaudière et Montérégie. Les caractéristiques bio-psycho-sociales des participants ont été documentées à l’aide d’un questionnaire écrit et d’une entrevue téléphonique au moment du recrutement. Les coûts directs de santé ont été estimés à partir des soins et des services de santé reçus au cours de l’année précédant et suivant le recrutement et identifiés à partir de la base de données de la Régie d’Assurance maladie du Québec, RAMQ (assureur publique de la province du Québec). Ces coûts incluaient ceux des hospitalisations reliées à la douleur, des visites à l’urgence, des soins ambulatoires et de la médication prescrite pour le traitement de la douleur et la gestion des effets secondaires des analgésiques. Les grands utilisateurs des soins de santé ont été définis comme étant ceux faisant partie du quartile le plus élevé de coûts directs annuels en soins de santé dans l’année suivant le recrutement. Des modèles de régression logistique multivariés et le critère d’information d’Akaike ont permis d’identifier les facteurs prédictifs des coûts directs élevés en soins de santé. Résultats: Le coût direct annuel médian en soins de santé chez les grands utilisateurs de soins de santé (63 patients) était de 7 627 CAD et de 1 554 CAD pour les utilisateurs réguliers (188 patients). Le modèle prédictif final du risque d’être un grand utilisateur de soins de santé incluait la douleur localisée au niveau des membres inférieurs (OR = 3,03; 95% CI: 1,20 - 7,65), la réduction de la capacité fonctionnelle liée à la douleur (OR = 1,24; 95% CI: 1,03 - 1,48) et les coûts directs en soins de santé dans l’année précédente (OR = 17,67; 95% CI: 7,90 - 39,48). Les variables «sexe», «comorbidité», «dépression» et «attitude envers la guérison médicale» étaient également retenues dans le modèle prédictif final. Conclusion: Les patients souffrant d’une DCNC au niveau des membres inférieurs et présentant une détérioration de la capacité fonctionnelle liée à la douleur comptent parmi ceux les plus susceptibles d’être de grands utilisateurs de soins et de services. Le coût direct en soins de santé dans l’année précédente était également un facteur prédictif important. Améliorer la prise en charge chez cette catégorie de patients pourrait influencer favorablement leur état de santé et par conséquent les coûts assumés par le système de santé.

Application of the UK Foresight Obesity Model in Ireland: The Health and Economic Consequences of Projected Obesity Trends in Ireland

Given the scale of the current obesity epidemic and associated health consequences there has been increasing concern about the economic burden placed on society in terms of direct healthcare costs and indirect societal costs. In the Republic of Ireland these costs were estimated at €1.13 billion for 2009. The total direct healthcare costs for six major obesity related conditions (coronary heart disease & stroke, cancer, hypertension, type 2 diabetes and knee osteoarthritis) in the same year were estimated at €2.55 billion. The aim of this research is to project disease burden and direct healthcare costs for these conditions in Ireland to 2030 using the established model developed by the Health Forum (UK) for the Foresight: Tackling Obesities project.