Computational tools for comparing asymmetric GARCH models via Bayes factors

In this paper we use Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods in order to estimate and compare GARCH models from a Bayesian perspective. We allow for possibly heavy tailed and asymmetric distributions in the error term. We use a general method proposed in the literature to introduce skewness into a continuous unimodal and symmetric distribution. For each model we compute an approximation to the marginal likelihood, based on the MCMC output. From these approximations we compute Bayes factors and posterior model probabilities. (C) 2012 IMACS. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Export Promotion through Exchange Rate Policy: Exchange Rate Depreciation or Stabilization?

Exchange rate movements affect exports in two ways -- its depreciation and its variability (risk). A depreciation raises exports, but the associated exchange rate risk could offset that positive effect. The present paper investigates the net effect for eight Asian countries using a dynamic conditional correlation bivariate GARCH-M model that simultaneously estimates time varying correlation and exchange rate risk. Depreciation encourages exports, as expected, for most countries, but its contribution to export growth is weak. Exchange rate risk contributes to export growth in Malaysia and the Philippines, leading to positive net effects. Exchange rate risk generates a negative effect for six of the countries, resulting in a negative net effect in Indonesia, Japan, Singapore, Taiwan and a zero net effect in Korea and Thailand. Since the negative effect of exchange rate risk may offset, or even dominate, positive contributions from depreciation, policy makers need to reduce exchange rate fluctuation along with and possibly before efforts to depreciate the currency.

Cross-Country Evidence on Output Growth Volatility: Nonstationary Variance and GARCH Models

This paper revisits the issue of conditional volatility in real GDP growth rates for Canada, Japan, the United Kingdom, and the United States. Previous studies find high persistence in the volatility. This paper shows that this finding largely reflects a nonstationary variance. Output growth in the four countries became noticeably less volatile over the past few decades. In this paper, we employ the modified ICSS algorithm to detect structural change in the unconditional variance of output growth. One structural break exists in each of the four countries. We then use generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (GARCH) specifications modeling output growth and its volatility with and without the break in volatility. The evidence shows that the time-varying variance falls sharply in Canada, Japan, and the U.K. and disappears in the U.S., excess kurtosis vanishes in Canada, Japan, and the U.S. and drops substantially in the U.K., once we incorporate the break in the variance equation of output for the four countries. That is, the integrated GARCH (IGARCH) effect proves spurious and the GARCH model demonstrates misspecification, if researchers neglect a nonstationary unconditional variance.

Villancicos, que se han de cantar en la iglesia parroquial de San Martin Obispo, de ... Valencia, en los ... maytines de su titular en este año M.DCC.LII

Según Palau, XXVII, 367998, fue impreso en 1752

Villancicos que se han de cantar en la parroquial iglesia del Sr. San Martin Obispo de Valencia en los ... maytines de su titular en este año M.DCC.LIII [Texto impreso]

Según Palau, XXVII, 367998, fue impreso en 1753

Villancicos, que se han de cantar en la iglesia parroquial de San Martin Obispo, de ... Valencia en los ... maytines de su titular en este año M.DCC.LI [Texto impreso]

Fecha tomada de 1751 tomada del tít

Villancicos que se han de cantar en la iglesia parroquial de San Martin Obispo de ... Valencia, en los ... maytines de su titular en este año M.DCC.LIV [Texto impreso]

Según Palau, XXVII, 367999, fue impreso en 1754

The dependence receptor DCC (deleted in colorectal cancer) defines an alternative mechanism for caspase activation

The expression of DCC (deleted in colorectal cancer) is often markedly reduced in colorectal and other cancers. However, the rarity of point mutations identified in DCC coding sequences and the lack of a tumor predisposition phenotype in DCC hemizygous mice have raised questions about its role as a tumor suppressor. DCC also mediates axon guidance and functions as a dependence receptor; such receptors create cellular states of dependence on their respective ligands by inducing apoptosis when unoccupied by ligand. We now show that DCC drives cell death independently of both the mitochondria-dependent pathway and the death receptor/caspase-8 pathway. Moreover, we demonstrate that DCC interacts with both caspase-3 and caspase-9 and drives the activation of caspase-3 through caspase-9 without a requirement for cytochrome c or Apaf-1. Hence, DCC defines an additional pathway for the apoptosome-independent caspase activation.

Kalendario manual y guia de forasteros en Madrid para el año de M. DCC. LXIX ...

Estado militar de España, año de 1769, con port. propia.

Discours prononcés dans l'Académie françoise, le Jeudi XVI Février M.DCC.LXXV a la réception de M. de Lamoignon de Malesherbes.

Mode of access: Internet.

Histoire de l'Academie Royale des Sciences : année M.DCC. avec les mémoires de mathématiques & de physique, pour la même année, tirés des registres de cette Académie.

Mode of access: Internet.

Tablettes chronologiques de l'histoire universelle, sacrée et profane, ecclésiastique et civile : depuis la création du monde, jusqu'à l'an M. DCC. XLIII ... /

Contiene: t. 1-2.

[Jugement de la Sénéchaussée de Lyon, qui supprime une brochure ayant pour titre: Reponse aux obiections publiees contre l'Institut des Jesuites, &c. M.DCC,LXI. comme seditieuse & attentatoire a l'honneur & a l'autorite de la magistrature. Du 17 Decembre 1761. Extrait des registres de la Senechausse de Lyon]

Mode of access: Internet.

Io. Friderici Weidleri Observationes meteorologicae atque astronomicae ann. M DCC XXIIX. et M DCC XXIX : illustratae Dissertationibvs binis de observatorio meteorologico et de hiemis A. M DCC XXIX. asperitate.

Mode of access: Internet.