Implementation of a module for risk of ozone impacts assessment to vegetation in the integrated assessment modelling system for the Iberian peninsula. Evaluation for wheat and holm oak

A module to estimate risks of ozone damage to vegetation has been implemented in the Integrated Assessment Modelling system for the Iberian Peninsula. It was applied to compute three different indexes for wheat and Holm oak; daylight AOT40 (cumulative ozone concentration over 40 ppb), cumulative ozone exposure index according to the Directive 2008/50/EC (AOT40-D) and PODY (Phytotoxic Ozone Dose over a given threshold of Y nmol m−2 s−1). The use of these indexes led to remarkable differences in spatial patterns of relative ozone risks on vegetation. Ozone critical levels were exceeded in most of the modelling domain and soil moisture content was found to have a significant impact on the results. According to the outputs of the model, daylight AOT40 constitutes a more conservative index than the AOT40-D. Additionally, flux-based estimations indicate high risk areas in Portugal for both wheat and Holm oak that are not identified by AOT-based methods.

Development and implementation of an air quality integrated assessment modelling system for the Iberian Peninsula

La mejora de la calidad del aire es una tarea eminentemente interdisciplinaria. Dada la gran variedad de ciencias y partes involucradas, dicha mejora requiere de herramientas de evaluación simples y completamente integradas. La modelización para la evaluación integrada (integrated assessment modeling) ha demostrado ser una solución adecuada para la descripción de los sistemas de contaminación atmosférica puesto que considera cada una de las etapas involucradas: emisiones, química y dispersión atmosférica, impactos ambientales asociados y potencial de disminución. Varios modelos de evaluación integrada ya están disponibles a escala continental, cubriendo cada una de las etapas antesmencionadas, siendo el modelo GAINS (Greenhouse Gas and Air Pollution Interactions and Synergies) el más reconocido y usado en el contexto europeo de toma de decisiones medioambientales. Sin embargo, el manejo de la calidad del aire a escala nacional/regional dentro del marco de la evaluación integrada es deseable. Esto sin embargo, no se lleva a cabo de manera satisfactoria con modelos a escala europea debido a la falta de resolución espacial o de detalle en los datos auxiliares, principalmente los inventarios de emisión y los patrones meteorológicos, entre otros. El objetivo de esta tesis es presentar los desarrollos en el diseño y aplicación de un modelo de evaluación integrada especialmente concebido para España y Portugal. El modelo AERIS (Atmospheric Evaluation and Research Integrated system for Spain) es capaz de cuantificar perfiles de concentración para varios contaminantes (NO2, SO2, PM10, PM2,5, NH3 y O3), el depósito atmosférico de especies de azufre y nitrógeno así como sus impactos en cultivos, vegetación, ecosistemas y salud como respuesta a cambios porcentuales en las emisiones de sectores relevantes. La versión actual de AERIS considera 20 sectores de emisión, ya sea equivalentes a sectores individuales SNAP o macrosectores, cuya contribución a los niveles de calidad del aire, depósito e impactos han sido modelados a través de matrices fuentereceptor (SRMs). Estas matrices son constantes de proporcionalidad que relacionan cambios en emisiones con diferentes indicadores de calidad del aire y han sido obtenidas a través de parametrizaciones estadísticas de un modelo de calidad del aire (AQM). Para el caso concreto de AERIS, su modelo de calidad del aire “de origen” consistió en el modelo WRF para la meteorología y en el modelo CMAQ para los procesos químico-atmosféricos. La cuantificación del depósito atmosférico, de los impactos en ecosistemas, cultivos, vegetación y salud humana se ha realizado siguiendo las metodologías estándar establecidas bajo los marcos internacionales de negociación, tales como CLRTAP. La estructura de programación está basada en MATLAB®, permitiendo gran compatibilidad con software típico de escritorio comoMicrosoft Excel® o ArcGIS®. En relación con los niveles de calidad del aire, AERIS es capaz de proveer datos de media anual y media mensual, así como el 19o valor horario más alto paraNO2, el 25o valor horario y el 4o valor diario más altos para SO2, el 36o valor diario más alto para PM10, el 26o valor octohorario más alto, SOMO35 y AOT40 para O3. En relación al depósito atmosférico, el depósito acumulado anual por unidad de area de especies de nitrógeno oxidado y reducido al igual que de azufre pueden ser determinados. Cuando los valores anteriormente mencionados se relacionan con características del dominio modelado tales como uso de suelo, cubiertas vegetales y forestales, censos poblacionales o estudios epidemiológicos, un gran número de impactos puede ser calculado. Centrándose en los impactos a ecosistemas y suelos, AERIS es capaz de estimar las superaciones de cargas críticas y las superaciones medias acumuladas para especies de nitrógeno y azufre. Los daños a bosques se calculan como una superación de los niveles críticos de NO2 y SO2 establecidos. Además, AERIS es capaz de cuantificar daños causados por O3 y SO2 en vid, maíz, patata, arroz, girasol, tabaco, tomate, sandía y trigo. Los impactos en salud humana han sido modelados como consecuencia de la exposición a PM2,5 y O3 y cuantificados como pérdidas en la esperanza de vida estadística e indicadores de mortalidad prematura. La exactitud del modelo de evaluación integrada ha sido contrastada estadísticamente con los resultados obtenidos por el modelo de calidad del aire convencional, exhibiendo en la mayoría de los casos un buen nivel de correspondencia. Debido a que la cuantificación de los impactos no es llevada a cabo directamente por el modelo de calidad del aire, un análisis de credibilidad ha sido realizado mediante la comparación de los resultados de AERIS con los de GAINS para un escenario de emisiones determinado. El análisis reveló un buen nivel de correspondencia en las medias y en las distribuciones probabilísticas de los conjuntos de datos. Las pruebas de verificación que fueron aplicadas a AERIS sugieren que los resultados son suficientemente consistentes para ser considerados como razonables y realistas. En conclusión, la principal motivación para la creación del modelo fue el producir una herramienta confiable y a la vez simple para el soporte de las partes involucradas en la toma de decisiones, de cara a analizar diferentes escenarios “y si” con un bajo coste computacional. La interacción con políticos y otros actores dictó encontrar un compromiso entre la complejidad del modeladomedioambiental con el carácter conciso de las políticas, siendo esto algo que AERIS refleja en sus estructuras conceptual y computacional. Finalmente, cabe decir que AERIS ha sido creado para su uso exclusivo dentro de un marco de evaluación y de ninguna manera debe ser considerado como un sustituto de los modelos de calidad del aire ordinarios. ABSTRACT Improving air quality is an eminently inter-disciplinary task. The wide variety of sciences and stakeholders that are involved call for having simple yet fully-integrated and reliable evaluation tools available. Integrated AssessmentModeling has proved to be a suitable solution for the description of air pollution systems due to the fact that it considers each of the involved stages: emissions, atmospheric chemistry, dispersion, environmental impacts and abatement potentials. Some integrated assessment models are available at European scale that cover each of the before mentioned stages, being the Greenhouse Gas and Air Pollution Interactions and Synergies (GAINS) model the most recognized and widely-used within a European policy-making context. However, addressing air quality at the national/regional scale under an integrated assessment framework is desirable. To do so, European-scale models do not provide enough spatial resolution or detail in their ancillary data sources, mainly emission inventories and local meteorology patterns as well as associated results. The objective of this dissertation is to present the developments in the design and application of an Integrated Assessment Model especially conceived for Spain and Portugal. The Atmospheric Evaluation and Research Integrated system for Spain (AERIS) is able to quantify concentration profiles for several pollutants (NO2, SO2, PM10, PM2.5, NH3 and O3), the atmospheric deposition of sulfur and nitrogen species and their related impacts on crops, vegetation, ecosystems and health as a response to percentual changes in the emissions of relevant sectors. The current version of AERIS considers 20 emission sectors, either corresponding to individual SNAP sectors or macrosectors, whose contribution to air quality levels, deposition and impacts have been modeled through the use of source-receptor matrices (SRMs). Thesematrices are proportionality constants that relate emission changes with different air quality indicators and have been derived through statistical parameterizations of an air qualitymodeling system (AQM). For the concrete case of AERIS, its parent AQM relied on the WRF model for meteorology and on the CMAQ model for atmospheric chemical processes. The quantification of atmospheric deposition, impacts on ecosystems, crops, vegetation and human health has been carried out following the standard methodologies established under international negotiation frameworks such as CLRTAP. The programming structure isMATLAB ® -based, allowing great compatibility with typical software such as Microsoft Excel ® or ArcGIS ® Regarding air quality levels, AERIS is able to provide mean annual andmean monthly concentration values, as well as the indicators established in Directive 2008/50/EC, namely the 19th highest hourly value for NO2, the 25th highest daily value and the 4th highest hourly value for SO2, the 36th highest daily value of PM10, the 26th highest maximum 8-hour daily value, SOMO35 and AOT40 for O3. Regarding atmospheric deposition, the annual accumulated deposition per unit of area of species of oxidized and reduced nitrogen as well as sulfur can be estimated. When relating the before mentioned values with specific characteristics of the modeling domain such as land use, forest and crops covers, population counts and epidemiological studies, a wide array of impacts can be calculated. When focusing on impacts on ecosystems and soils, AERIS is able to estimate critical load exceedances and accumulated average exceedances for nitrogen and sulfur species. Damage on forests is estimated as an exceedance of established critical levels of NO2 and SO2. Additionally, AERIS is able to quantify damage caused by O3 and SO2 on grapes, maize, potato, rice, sunflower, tobacco, tomato, watermelon and wheat. Impacts on human health aremodeled as a consequence of exposure to PM2.5 and O3 and quantified as losses in statistical life expectancy and premature mortality indicators. The accuracy of the IAM has been tested by statistically contrasting the obtained results with those yielded by the conventional AQM, exhibiting in most cases a good agreement level. Due to the fact that impacts cannot be directly produced by the AQM, a credibility analysis was carried out for the outputs of AERIS for a given emission scenario by comparing them through probability tests against the performance of GAINS for the same scenario. This analysis revealed a good correspondence in the mean behavior and the probabilistic distributions of the datasets. The verification tests that were applied to AERIS suggest that results are consistent enough to be credited as reasonable and realistic. In conclusion, the main reason thatmotivated the creation of this model was to produce a reliable yet simple screening tool that would provide decision and policy making support for different “what-if” scenarios at a low computing cost. The interaction with politicians and other stakeholders dictated that reconciling the complexity of modeling with the conciseness of policies should be reflected by AERIS in both, its conceptual and computational structures. It should be noted however, that AERIS has been created under a policy-driven framework and by no means should be considered as a substitute of the ordinary AQM.

An integrated assessment of two decades of air pollution policy making in Spain: Impacts, costs and improvements

This paper analyses the effects of policy making for air pollution abatement in Spain between 2000 and 2020 under an integrated assessment approach with the AERIS model for number of pollutants (NOx/NO2, PM10/PM2.5, O3, SO2, NH3 and VOC). The analysis of the effects of air pollution focused on different aspects: compliance with the European limit values of Directive 2008/50/EC for NO2 and PM10 for the Spanish air quality management areas; the evaluation of impacts caused by the deposition of atmospheric sulphur and nitrogen on ecosystems; the exceedance of critical levels of NO2 and SO2 in forest areas; the analysis of O3-induced crop damage for grapes, maize, potato, rice, tobacco, tomato, watermelon and wheat; health impacts caused by human exposure to O3 and PM2.5; and costs on society due to crop losses (O3), disability-related absence of work staff and damage to buildings and public property due to soot-related soiling (PM2.5). In general, air quality policy making has delivered improvements in air quality levels throughout Spain and has mitigated the severity of the impacts on ecosystems, health and vegetation in 2020 as target year. The findings of this work constitute an appropriate diagnosis for identifying improvement potentials for further mitigation for policy makers and stakeholders in Spain.

Copulas in QTL mapping

The standard variance components method for mapping quantitative trait loci is derived on the assumption of normality. Unsurprisingly, statistical tests based on this method do not perform so well if this assumption is not satisfied. We use the statistical concept of copulas to relax the assumption of normality and derive a test that can perform well under any distribution of the continuous trait. In particular, we discuss bivariate normal copulas in the context of sib-pair studies. Our approach is illustrated by a linkage analysis of lipoprotein(a) levels, whose distribution is highly skewed. We demonstrate that the asymptotic critical levels of the test can still be calculated using the interval mapping approach. The new method can be extended to more general pedigrees and multivariate phenotypes in a similar way as the original variance components method.

Modelling sustainability performance to achieve absolute reductions in socio-ecological systems

As the world’s natural resources dwindle and critical levels of environmental pollution are approached, sustainability becomes a key issue for governments, organisations and individuals. With the consequences of such an issue in mind, this paper introduces a unifying approach to measure the sustainability performance of socio-economic systems based on the interplay between two key variables: essentiality of consumption and environmental impact. This measure attributes to every system a ‘fitness’ value i.e. a quantity that reflects its ability to remain resilient/healthy by avoiding ecological, social and economic collapse as it consumes the available resources. This new measure is tested on a system where there is a limited supply of resources and four basic consumption types. The analysis has theoretical implications as well as practical importance as it can help countries, organisations or even individuals, in finding better ways to measure sustainability performance.

Concurrent codes:a holographic-type encoding robust against noise and loss

Concurrent coding is an encoding scheme with 'holographic' type properties that are shown here to be robust against a significant amount of noise and signal loss. This single encoding scheme is able to correct for random errors and burst errors simultaneously, but does not rely on cyclic codes. A simple and practical scheme has been tested that displays perfect decoding when the signal to noise ratio is of order -18dB. The same scheme also displays perfect reconstruction when a contiguous block of 40% of the transmission is missing. In addition this scheme is 50% more efficient in terms of transmitted power requirements than equivalent cyclic codes. A simple model is presented that describes the process of decoding and can determine the computational load that would be expected, as well as describing the critical levels of noise and missing data at which false messages begin to be generated.

Evaluación de la exposición laboral a sílice en empresas de diferentes sectores económicos en Colombia

Introducción: La sílice es un elemento de fácil aprovechamiento y por sus características fisicoquímicas ha sido ampliamente empleado en la industria como objetivo, materia prima o subproducto que genera silicosis en los trabajadores que han estado expuestos a polvo de sílice a través de los años y es una enfermedad que progresa incluso cuando la exposición cesa. La silicosis es conocida como una enfermedad de alta e histórica incidencia y prevalencia a nivel mundial, por lo que es necesario evaluar la exposición laboral a sílice (fracción respirable) en empresas pertenecientes a diferentes sectores económicos que están afiliadas una ARL en Colombia, para contribuir con información diagnóstica actualizada en diferentes regiones y en variadas actividades económicas. Objetivos: Evaluar la exposición laboral a sílice y el nivel de riesgo en empresas afiliadas a una ARL de acuerdo con su ubicación geográfica, actividad económica, área de trabajo, cargo y relacionar las medidas de control empleadas en cada empresa. Materiales y métodos: Se llevó a cabo un estudio de corte transversal sobre 239 mediciones de higiene industrial de 159 empresas de diferentes actividades través de la asociación de variables ocupacionales con las características de la exposición a sílice. Las variables cuantitativas fueron calculadas empleando medidas de tendencia central como media y mediana y medidas de dispersión como rango y desviación estándar con sus correspondientes coeficientes de variación. El nivel máximo permisible o TLV establecido de acuerdo con los parámetros señalados por la Conferencia Americana de Higienistas Industriales Gubernamentales (ACGIH en inglés) y empleado en este estudio para sílice cristalina, fue de 0,025 mg/m3. Resultados: Las actividades económicas que reportaron las mayores concentraciones corregidas a condiciones estándar de polvo de sílice fueron: la minería y actividades Extractivas con 6,340 mg/m3, el mantenimiento industrial, montajes electromecánicos y civiles con 1,312 mg/m3, la maquinaria, metalmecánica, electrodomésticos y equipos con 0,096 mg/m3 y la construcción con 0,702 mg/m3; Discusión: Se realizó un análisis segmentado en dos grupos A y B de acuerdo con el tiempo de medición, se encontró que para el índice de riesgo en ambos grupos indican una sobre-exposición de los trabajadores a niveles críticos, razón por la cual es necesario generar una estrategia de intervención que permita disminuir a tiempo las concentraciones de sílice en las áreas de trabajo y así reducir la exposición de los trabajadores.

La creatividad en la vida

Recibido 10 de noviembre de 2010 • Aceptado 09 de marzo de 2011 • Corregido 04 de mayo de 2011     En este artículo desarrollo la idea de que la creatividad no está restringida al ámbito del arte, como suele creerse, ya que el arte es solo una expresión de la creatividad, que los humanos hacemos muchísimas cosas más que requieren de creatividad y que ni siquiera la creatividad es un atributo de los humanos pues a partir de ciertos niveles vitales se pueden observar conductas en los seres vivos que implican grados diferentes de cognición estética.

Food aversion: A critical balance between allergen-specific IgE levels and taste preference

Animals sensitized to allergens change their feeding behavior and avoid drinking the otherwise preferred sweetened solutions containing the allergens. This phenomenon, known as food aversion, appears to be mediated by allergen-specific IgE antibodies. Here we investigated food aversion in BALB/c and C57BL/6 mice, which differ in their allergic responses to the allergen ovalbumin as well as in their preference for sweet taste. BALB/c mice present higher levels of IgE and a natural lower preference for sweet flavors when compared to C57BL/6 mice. Specifically, we studied a conflicting situation in which animals simultaneously experienced the aversive contact with the allergen and the attractive sweet taste of increasing concentrations of sucrose. We found that BALB/c mice were more prone to develop food aversion than C57BL/6 mice and that this aversive behavior could be abolished in both strains by increasing the palatability of the solution containing the allergen. In both strains food aversion was positively correlated with the levels of allergen-specific IgE antibodies and inversely correlated with their preference for sucrose sweetened solutions. (C) 2009 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Behavioral changes in brain-injured critical care adults with different levels of consciousness during nociceptive stimulation: an observational study.

PURPOSE: The primary objective of this study was to describe the frequency of behaviors observed during rest, a non-nociceptive procedure, and a nociceptive procedure in brain-injured intensive care unit (ICU) patients with different levels of consciousness (LOC). Second, it examined the inter-rater reliability and discriminant and concurrent validity of the behavioral checklist used. METHODS: The non-nociceptive procedure involved calling the patient and shaking his/her shoulder. The nociceptive procedure involved turning the patient. The frequency of behaviors was recorded using a behavioral checklist. RESULTS: Patients with absence of movement, or stereotyped flexion or extension responses to a nociceptive stimulus displayed more behaviors during turning (median 5.5, range 0-14) than patients with localized responses (median 4, range 0-10) or able to self-report their pain (median 4, range 0-10). Face flushing, clenched teeth, clenched fist, and tremor were more frequent in patients with absence of movement, or stereotyped responses to a nociceptive stimulus. The reliability of the checklist was supported by a high intra-class correlation coefficient (0.77-0.92), and the internal consistency was acceptable in all three groups (KR 20, 0.71-0.85). Discriminant validity was supported as significantly more behaviors were observed during nociceptive stimulation than at rest. Concurrent validity was confirmed as checklist scores were correlated to the patients' self-reports of pain (r s = 0.53; 95 % CI 0.21-0.75). CONCLUSION: Brain-injured patients reacted significantly more during a nociceptive stimulus and the number of observed behaviors was higher in patients with a stereotyped response.

Critical stages of the brewing process for changes in antioxidant activity and levels of phenolic compounds in ale

Samples were taken at each stage of brewing (malt, milling, mashing, wort separation, hop addition, boiling, whirlpool, dilution, fermentation, warm rest, chill-lagering, beer filtration, carbonation and bottling, pasteurization, and storage). The level of antioxidant activity of unfractionated, low-molecular-mass (LMM) and high-molecular-mass (HMM) fractions was measured by the 2,2'-azinobis(3-ethylbenzothiazoline-6-sulfortic acid) radical cation (ABTS(.+)) and ferric-reducing antioxidant power (FRAP) procedures. Polyphenol levels were assessed by HPLC. The LMM fraction (<5 kDa) was responsible for similar to80% of the level of antioxidant activity of the unfractionated malt and beer samples. In the unfractionated samples, significant decreases (P < 0.001) in antioxidant activity levels were observed after milling and beer filtration, with the decrease after beer filtration being accompanied by a significant decrease (P > 0.001) in catechin and ferulic acid levels. Increases in antioxidant activity levels were observed after mashing, boiling, fermentation, chill-lagering, and pasteurization, in line with previous studies on lager. Additionally, increases in the level of antioxidant activity occurred after wort separation and carbonation and bottling and were accompanied by increases in levels of most monitored polyphenols. Data from the ABTS(.-) and FRAP assays indicated that the compounds contributing to the levels of antioxidant activity responded differently in the two procedures. Levels of ferulic, vanillic, and chlorogenic acids and catechin accounted for 45-61% of the variation in antioxidant activity levels.

Migration in the Caribbean: what do we know? an overview of data, policies and programmes at the international and regional levels to address critical issues

Includes bibliography

Migration in the Caribbean: what do we know?: an overview of data, policies and programmes at the international and regional levels to address critical issues

Includes bibliography

Dris norms and critical leaf nutrient levels for ‘Niagara rosada’ grape in Jundiaí region, São Paulo (Brasil)

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)