Systemic crises and growth

In this paper, we document the fact that countries that have experienced occasional financial crises have on average grown faster than countries with stable financial conditions. We measure the incidence of crisis with the skewness of credit growth, and find that it has a robust negative effect on GDP growth. This link coexists with the negative link between variance and growth typically found in the literature. To explain the link between crises and growth we present a model where weak institutions lead to severe financial constraints and low growth. Financial liberalization policies that facilitaterisk-taking increase leverage and investment. This leads to higher growth, but also toa greater incidence of crises. Conditions are established under which the costs of crises are outweighed by the benefits of higher growth.

On the timing of balance of payments crises: Disaggregated information and interest rate policy

This paper proposes a dynamic framework to study the timing of balance of paymentscrises. The model incorporates two main ingredients: (i) investors have private information; (ii)investors interact in a dynamic setting, weighing the high returns on domestic assets against the incentives to pull out before the devaluation. The model shows that the presence of disaggregated information delays the onset of BOP crises, giving rise to discrete devaluations. It also shows that high interest rates can be eective in delaying and possibly avoiding the abandonment of the peg. The optimal policy is to raise interest rates sharply as fundamentals become very weak. However, this policy is time inconsistent, suggesting a role for commitment devices such as currency boards or IMF pressure.

Allergo-immunologie. 1. Nouveautés dans le traitement des crises aiguës d'angioedème héréditaire [Allergy-immunology. New therapies for acute attacks in hereditary angioedema].

Hereditary angioedema is a disease which develops as a result of a deficiency or dysfonction of C1-inhibitor, a key regulator of the complement, coagulation and contact cascades, resulting among others in excessive release of bradykinin. This disease mortality rate is high in absence of immediate and effective treatment, in particular in presence of acute attacks of the upper respiratory tract (laryngeal edema). Until now only administration of a purified C1-inhibitor extract was effective against these symptoms. This paper aims to synthesise essentials knowledge concerning news drugs, in particular icatibant, a selective bradykinin B2- receptor antagonist whose use should be widened to the treatment of angioedema with ACE-inhibitors intolerance.

Gross capital flows: Dynamics and crises

This paper analyzes the behavior of international capital flows by foreign and domestic agents,dubbed gross capital flows, over the business cycle and during financial crises. We show thatgross capital flows are very large and volatile, especially relative to net capital flows. Whenforeigners invest in a country, domestic agents invest abroad, and vice versa. Gross capital flowsare also pro-cyclical. During expansions, foreigners invest more domestically and domesticagents invest more abroad. During crises, total gross flows collapse and there is a retrenchmentin both inflows by foreigners and outflows by domestic agents. These patterns hold for differenttypes of capital flows and crises. This evidence sheds light on the sources of fluctuations drivingcapital flows and helps discriminate among existing theories. Our findings seem consistent withcrises affecting domestic and foreign agents asymmetrically, as would be the case under thepresence of sovereign risk or asymmetric information.

An eclectic third generation model of financial and exchange rate crises

[cat] En aquest treball es presenta un model eclèctic que sistematitza la dinàmica de les crisis que s’autoconfimen, usant els principals aspectes de les tres tipologies dels models de crisis canviàries de tercera generació, amb la finalitat de descriure els fets que precipiten la renúncia al manteniment d’una paritat fixada. Les contribucions més notables són les implicacions per a la política econòmica, així com la pèrdua del paper del tipus de canvi com instrument d’ajust macroeconòmic, quan els efectes de balanç són una possibilitat real.

Managing the crises : How do Swiss municipalities react to the crisis and what explains the differences ?

Swiss municipalities are to an import ant extent responsible for their own resources. Since these resources primarily depend on income and property tax from individuals and enterprises, their budgets are likely to be directly affected by the actual crisis of the financial sector and the economy. This paper investigates how the municipalities perceive this threat and how they reacted to it or plan to do so. In a nationwide survey conducted at the end of 2009 in all 2596 Swiss municipalities, we asked the local secretaries which measures they launch in order to cope with expected losses in tax income and a possible increase of welfare spending. Do the municipalities rather rely on Keynesian measures increasing public spending and accepting greater deficits, or do they try to avoid further deficits by austerity measures and a withdrawal of planned investments? The paper shows that only a few municipalities - mainly the bigger ones - expect to be strongly hit by the crisis. Their reactions, however, do not reveal the clear patterns theory lets to expect. Preferences for austerity measures and deficit spending become visible but many municipalities take measures from both theories. The strongest explaining factor whether municipalities react is the affectedness by the crisis followed by the fact that the municipality belongs to the French speaking part of the country. Size also has an effect whereas the strength of the Social Democrats is negligible. More difficult is it, to explain what kind of measures municipalities are likely to take.

An eclectic third generation model of financial and exchange rate crises

[cat] En aquest treball es presenta un model eclèctic que sistematitza la dinàmica de les crisis que s’autoconfimen, usant els principals aspectes de les tres tipologies dels models de crisis canviàries de tercera generació, amb la finalitat de descriure els fets que precipiten la renúncia al manteniment d’una paritat fixada. Les contribucions més notables són les implicacions per a la política econòmica, així com la pèrdua del paper del tipus de canvi com instrument d’ajust macroeconòmic, quan els efectes de balanç són una possibilitat real.

Krisen - Ursachen, Deutungen und Folgen / Crises - Causes, interprétations et conséquences

L'effondrement inattendu de l'économie mondiale en 2009 a suscité un intérêt nouveau pour l'étude historique des crises. Dans ce contexte incertain, l'étude du passé a regagné en attractivité. L'ouvrage fait certaines propositions théoriques et offre une vision d'ensemble des différents types de crises du Haut Moyen-Age jusqu'à nos jours. La principale conclusion qui ressort de ces contributions est qu'il n'y a pas de réponse objective à une situation de crise. Les interprétations et les attentes ne sont certes pas complètement aléatoires, dans la mesure où elles s'inspirent des expériences du passé. Elles sont cependant soumises à de fortes variations, car les périodes de forte incertitude engendrent certains doutes vis-à-vis des enseignements du passé. Dans cette perspective, les auteurs.es parviennent, à partir de leurs études de cas historiques, à stimuler la réflexion sur la crise actuelle.

Crises non épileptiques psychogènes: le défi des troubles fonctionnels en neurologie

Psychogenic non epileptic seizures (PNES) look like epilepsy, but are not accompanied by the electrophysiological alterations found in epilepsy. The diagnosis requires a complex process at the interface between neurology and psychiatry. Diagnostic restitution to the patient and treatment of the condition should be a collaboration between neurologist and psychiatrist including as much as possible a general practitioner. Vulnerability and triggering psycho-social factors, as well as frequent psychiatric co morbidity implicate that psychiatric-psychological care is needed in a majority of situations, however this cannot be done without a strong "somatic back-up" with rapid access to somatic facility for advice and care when needed. The neurological presentation of the disease, with psychiatric causes underlying the condition, bear the risk for the patient that neither neurological nor psychiatric care is offered. Current knowledge about the condition is still scarce, but the field is progressively enriched by studies with stronger methodologies. Recent neuroimaging studies open fascinating avenues on our understanding of the interplay between emotional regulation, representation of the self, and dissociative symptoms. These new avenues help our understanding of these disorders which challenge classical frontiers between neurology and psychiatry. In this paper we try to formulate a framework for the care of patient with dissociative disorders including NEPS.

Auguste Ott on Commercial Crises and Distributive Justice: An Early Input-Output Scheme

In 1851 the French Social economist Auguste Ott discussed the problem of gluts and commercial crises, together with the issue of distributive justice between workers in co-operative societies. He did so by means of a 'simple reproduction scheme' sharing some features with modern intersectoral transactions tables, in particular in terms of their graphical representation. This paper presents Ott's theory of crises (which was based on the disappointment of expectations) and the context of his model, and discusses its peculiarities, supplying a new piece for the reconstruction of the prehistory of input-output analysis.