A Simple Theory of Increasing Penalties for Repeat Offenders

A feature of many penal codes is that punishments are more severe for repeat offenders, yet economic models have had a hard time providing a theoretical justification for this practice. This paper offers an explanation based on the wage penalty suffered by individuals convicted of crime. While this penalty probably deters some first-timers from committing crimes, it actually hampers deterrence of repeat offenders because of their diminished employments opportunities. We show that in this setting, an escalating penalty scheme is optimal and time consistent.

Theory of uncertainty in illness in patients with cancer of unknown primary origin: Structure providers as antecedents of uncertainty in a population of cancer patients with an unknown primary diagnosis

Uncertainty has been found to be a major component of the cancer experience and can dramatically affect psychosocial adaptation and outcomes of a patient's disease state (McCormick, 2002). Patients with a diagnosis of Carcinoma of Unknown Primary (CUP) may experience higher levels of uncertainty due to the unpredictability of current and future symptoms, limited treatment options and an undetermined life expectancy. To date, only one study has touched upon uncertainty and its' effects on those with CUP but no information exists concerning the effects of uncertainty regarding diagnosis and treatment on the distress level and psychosocial adjustment of this population (Parker & Lenzi, 2003). ^ Mishel's Uncertainty in Illness Theory (1984) proposes that uncertainty is preceded by three variables, one of which being Structure Providers. Structure Providers include credible authority, the degree of trust and confidence the patient has with their doctor, education and social support. It was the goal of this study to examine the relationship between uncertainty and Structure Providers to support the following hypotheses: (1) There will be a negative association between credible authority and uncertainty, (2) There will be a negative association between education level and uncertainty, and (3) There will be a negative association between social support and uncertainty. ^ This cross-sectional analysis utilized data from 219 patients following their initial consultation with their oncologist. Data included the Mishel Uncertainty in Illness Scale (MUIS) which was used to determine patients' uncertainty levels, the Medical Outcomes Study-Social Support Scale (MOSS-SSS) to assess patients, levels of social support, the Patient Satisfaction Questionnaire (PSQ-18) and the Cancer Diagnostic Interview Scale (CDIS) to measure credible authority and general demographic information to assess age, education, marital status and ethnicity. ^ In this study we found that uncertainty levels were generally higher in this sample as compared to other types of cancer populations. And while our results seemed to support most of our hypothesis, we were only able to show significant associations between two. The analyses indicated that credible authority measured by both the CDIS and the PSQ was a significant predictor of uncertainty as was social support measured by the MOSS-SS. Education has shown to have an inconsistent pattern of effect in relation to uncertainty and in the current study there was not enough data to significantly support our hypothesis. ^ The results of this study generally support Mishel's Theory of Uncertainty in Illness and highlight the importance of taking into consideration patients, psychosocial factors as well as employing proper communication practices between physicians and their patients.^

Some past decision theory models for euro construction model codes and for road drainage in Spain, and modest hints with multi-criteria methods for agro and environmental assurance

The authors are from UPM and are relatively grouped, and all have intervened in different academic or real cases on the subject, at different times as being of different age. With precedent from E. Torroja and A. Páez in Madrid Spain Safety Probabilistic models for concrete about 1957, now in ICOSSAR conferences, author J.M. Antón involved since autumn 1967 for euro-steel construction in CECM produced a math model for independent load superposition reductions, and using it a load coefficient pattern for codes in Rome Feb. 1969, practically adopted for European constructions, giving in JCSS Lisbon Feb. 1974 suggestion of union for concrete-steel-al.. That model uses model for loads like Gumbel type I, for 50 years for one type of load, reduced to 1 year to be added to other independent loads, the sum set in Gumbel theories to 50 years return period, there are parallel models. A complete reliability system was produced, including non linear effects as from buckling, phenomena considered somehow in actual Construction Eurocodes produced from Model Codes. The system was considered by author in CEB in presence of Hydraulic effects from rivers, floods, sea, in reference with actual practice. When redacting a Road Drainage Norm in MOPU Spain an optimization model was realized by authors giving a way to determine the figure of Return Period, 10 to 50 years, for the cases of hydraulic flows to be considered in road drainage. Satisfactory examples were a stream in SE of Spain with Gumbel Type I model and a paper of Ven Te Chow with Mississippi in Keokuk using Gumbel type II, and the model can be modernized with more varied extreme laws. In fact in the MOPU drainage norm the redacting commission acted also as expert to set a table of return periods for elements of road drainage, in fact as a multi-criteria complex decision system. These precedent ideas were used e.g. in wide Codes, indicated in symposia or meetings, but not published in journals in English, and a condensate of contributions of authors is presented. The authors are somehow involved in optimization for hydraulic and agro planning, and give modest hints of intended applications in presence of agro and environment planning as a selection of the criteria and utility functions involved in bayesian, multi-criteria or mixed decision systems. Modest consideration is made of changing in climate, and on the production and commercial systems, and on others as social and financial.

Pattern formation of parametrically driven surface waves induced by vibration

Esta tesis se centra en la generación de ondas superficiales subarmónicas en fluidos sometidos a vibración forzada en el régimen gravitatorio capilar con líquidos de baja viscosidad. Tres problemas diferentes han sido estudiados: un contenedor rectangular con vibración horizontal, la misma geometría pero con una combinación de vibración vertical y horizontal y un obstáculo completamente sumergido vibrado verticalmente en un contenedor grande. Se deriva una ecuación de amplitud desde primeros principios para describir las ondas subarmónicas con forzamiento parámetrico inducido por la vibración. La ecuación es bidimensional mientras que el problema original es tridimensional y admite un forzamiento espacial no uniforme. Usando esta ecuación los tres sistemas han sido analizados, centrándose en calcular la amplitud crítica, la orientación de los patrones y el carácter temporal de los patrones espaciotemporales, que pueden ser estrictamente subarmónicos o cuasiperiodicos con una frecuencia de modulación temporal. La dependencia con los parámetros adimensionales también se considera. La teoría será comparada con los experimentos disponibles en la literatura. Abstract This thesis focus on the generation of subharmonic surface waves on fluids subject to forced vibration in the gravity-capillary regime with liquids of small viscosity. Three different problems have been considered: a rectangular container under horizontal vibration; the same geometry but under a combination of horizontal and vertical vibration; and a fully submerged vertically vibrated obstacle in a large container. An amplitude equation is derived from first principles that fairly precisely describes the subharmonic surfaces waves parametrically driven by vibration. That equation is two dimensional while the underlying problem is three-dimensional and permits spatially nonuniform forcing. Using this equation, the three systems have been analyzed, focusing on the calculation of the threshold amplitude, the pattern orientation, and the temporal character of the spatio-temporal patterns, which can be either strictly subharmonic or quasi-periodic, showing an additional modulation frequency. Dependence on the non-dimensional parameters is also considered. The theory is compared with the experiments available in the literature.

Ultrasonic tagging of light: Theory

A theory is provided for the detection efficiency of diffuse light whose frequency is modulated by an acoustical wave. We derive expressions for the speckle pattern of the modulated light, as well as an expression for the signal-to-noise ratio for the detector. The aim is to develop a new imaging technology for detection of tumors in humans. The acoustic wave is focused into a small geometrical volume, which provides the spatial resolution for the imaging. The wavelength of the light wave can be selected to provide information regarding the kind of tumor.

Cortical correlate of pattern backward masking.

The perception of a briefly presented shape is strongly impaired when it is followed by another pattern, a phenomenon called backward masking. We found that the vast majority of a sample of shape-selective neurons in the macaque inferior temporal cortex respond selectively to backward-masked shapes, although these shapes could not be discriminated by human and monkey subjects. However, this selective response was brief, since it was either interrupted by the mask or overridden by a response to the mask itself. We show that reliable discrimination of briefly presented shapes by single neurons depends on the temporal integration of the response. Presentation of the mask, however, reduces the number of spikes available for integration, explaining backward masking. These results also provide direct neurophysiological evidence for the "interruption theory" of backward masking.

Aggressive incidents inside a Montreal barroom involving patrons, barmaids and bouncers : a micro level examination of routine activity theory

Objectives: This article further examines the phenomenon of aggression inside barrooms by relying on the “bouncer-ethnographer” methodology. The objective is to investigate variations in aggression through time and space according to the role and routine of the target in a Montreal barroom. Thus, it provides an examination of routine activity theory at the micro level: the barroom. Methods: For a period of 258 nights of observation in a Canadian barroom, bouncers completed reports on each intervention and provided specific information regarding what happened, when and where within the venue. In addition, the bouncer-ethnographer compiled field observations and interviews with bar personnel in order to identify aggression hotspots and “rush hours” for three types of actors within barrooms: (a) bouncers, (b) barmaids and (c) patrons. Findings: Three different patterns emerged for shifting hotspots of aggression depending on the target. As the night progresses, aggressive incidents between patrons, towards barmaids and towards bouncers have specific hotspots and rush hours influenced by the specific routine of the target inside the barroom. Implications: The current findings enrich those of previous work by pointing to the relevance of not only examining the environmental characteristics of the barroom, but also the role of the target of aggression. Crime opportunities follow routine activities, even within a specific location on a micro level. Routine activity theory is thus relevant in this context, because as actors in differing roles follow differing routines, as do their patterns of victimization.

Fear of crime in Brisbane - Individual, social and neighbourhood factors in perspective

Numerous theories apply to fear of crime and each are associated with different kinds of variables. Most studies use only one theory, though this study examines the relative importance of different kinds of variables across a number of theories. The study uses data from a survey of residents in Brisbane, Australia to examine the relative importance of individual attributes, neighbourhood disorder, social processes and neighbourhood structure in predicting fear of crime. Individual attributes and neighbourhood disorder were found to be important predictors of fear of crime, while social processes and neighbourhood structure were found to be far less important. The theoretical implications are that the vulnerability hypothesis and the incivilities thesis are most appropriate for investigating fear of crime, though social disorganization theory does provide conceptual support for the incivilities thesis. Although social processes are less important in predicting fear of crime than neighbourhood incivilities, they are still integrally related to fear of crime: they explain how incivilities arise, they buffer against fear of crime, and they are affected by fear of crime.

In search of a theory of list memory: an inquiry into the efects of long-term information on short-term recall

Over recent years, evidence has been accumulating in favour of the importance of long-term information as a variable which can affect the success of short-term recall. Lexicality, word frequency, imagery and meaning have all been shown to augment short term recall performance. Two competing theories as to the causes of this long-term memory influence are outlined and tested in this thesis. The first approach is the order-encoding account, which ascribes the effect to the usage of resources at encoding, hypothesising that word lists which require less effort to process will benefit from increased levels of order encoding, in turn enhancing recall success. The alternative view, trace redintegration theory, suggests that order is automatically encoded phonologically, and that long-term information can only influence the interpretation of the resultant memory trace. The free recall experiments reported here attempted to determine the importance of order encoding as a facilitatory framework and to determine the locus of the effects of long-term information in free recall. Experiments 1 and 2 examined the effects of word frequency and semantic categorisation over a filled delay, and experiments 3 and 4 did the same for immediate recall. Free recall was improved by both long-term factors tested. Order information was not used over a short filled delay, but was evident in immediate recall. Furthermore, it was found that both long-term factors increased the amount of order information retained. Experiment 5 induced an order encoding effect over a filled delay, leaving a picture of short-term processes which are closely associated with long-term processes, and which fit conceptions of short-term memory being part of language processes rather better than either the encoding or the retrieval-based models. Experiments 6 and 7 aimed to determine to what extent phonological processes were responsible for the pattern of results observed. Articulatory suppression affected the encoding of order information where speech rate had no direct influence, suggesting that it is ease of lexical access which is the most important factor in the influence of long-term memory on immediate recall tasks. The evidence presented in this thesis does not offer complete support for either the retrieval-based account or the order encoding account of long-term influence. Instead, the evidence sits best with models that are based upon language-processing. The path urged for future research is to find ways in which this diffuse model can be better specified, and which can take account of the versatility of the human brain.

Excitation of higher spatial harmonics by a moving light pattern in sillenites

We investigate numerically the dependence of higher harmonics of the space-charge field on the detuning frequency between the pump waves, which form a running interference pattern. Bistability and hysteresis of harmonics are predicted for a contrast of the interference pattern m =(0.25-0.3). For contrasts m˜1 and small detuning frequencies we show the existence of a narrow resonance, connected with the nonlinear excitation of a slowly decreasing sequence of spatial harmonics. For experiments we use a BSO crystal in the optical configuration which avoids nonlinear optical distortions. The experimental data show good qualitative agreement with theory.

Excitation of higher spatial harmonics by a moving light pattern in sillenites

We investigate numerically the dependence of higher harmonics of the space-charge field on the detuning frequency between the pump waves, which form a running interference pattern. Bistability and hysteresis of harmonics are predicted for a contrast of the interference pattern m =(0.25-0.3). For contrasts m˜1 and small detuning frequencies we show the existence of a narrow resonance, connected with the nonlinear excitation of a slowly decreasing sequence of spatial harmonics. For experiments we use a BSO crystal in the optical configuration which avoids nonlinear optical distortions. The experimental data show good qualitative agreement with theory.

How well does the theory of planned behaviour predict alcohol consumption? A systematic review and meta-analysis

This study aimed to quantify correlations between theory of planned behaviour (TPB) variables and (i) intentions to consume alcohol and (ii) alcohol consumption. Systematic literature searches identified 40 eligible studies that were meta-analysed. Three moderator analyses were conducted: pattern of consumption, gender of participants and age of participants. Across studies, intentions had the strongest relationship with attitudes (r+ = .62), followed by subjective norms (r+ = .47) and perceived behavioural control (PBC; r+ = .31). Self-efficacy (SE) had a stronger relationship with intentions (r+ = .48) compared with perceived control (PC; r+ = −.10). Intention had the strongest relationship with alcohol consumption (r+ = .54), followed by SE (r+ = .41). In contrast, PBC and PC had negative relationships with alcohol consumption (r+ = −.05 and −.13, respectively). All moderators affected TPB relationships. Patterns of consumption with clear definitions had stronger TPB relations, females reported stronger attitude–intention relations than males, and adults reported stronger attitude–intention and SE–intention relations than adolescents. Recommendations for future research include targeting attitudes and intentions in interventions to reduce alcohol consumption, using clear definitions of alcohol consumption in TPB items to improve prediction and assessing SE when investigating risk behaviours.

On the Quality of Decision Functions in Pattern Recognition

The problem of decision functions quality in pattern recognition is considered. An overview of the approaches to the solution of this problem is given. Within the Bayesian framework, we suggest an approach based on the Bayesian interval estimates of quality on a finite set of events.

Measure Refutations and Metrics on Statements of Experts (Logical Formulas) in the Models for Some Theory

* This work was financially supported by the Russian Foundation for Basic Research, project no. 04-01-00858a.