Millennium BCP- The almond hill credit extension proposal

This Work Project is a case study on the credit lending process and loan pricing policy of Millennium bcp, one of the main Portuguese banks. The goal of the case study is to provide an opportunity to understand the above mentioned process and policy in a major bank and to explore the issues and interests at play when a relevant credit decision must be taken. I would like to thank Dr. José Miguel Pessanha without whom this project would not have been possible.

The impact of credit conditions on market liquidity – a case for European stock markets

The recent financial crisis has drawn the attention of researchers and regulators to the importance of liquidity for stock market stability and efficiency. The ability of market-makers and investors to provide liquidity is constrained by the willingness of financial institutions to supply funding capital. This paper sheds light on the liquidity linkages between the Central Bank, Monetary Financial Institutions and market-makers as crucial elements to the well-functioning of markets. Results suggest the existence of causality between credit conditions and stock market liquidity for the Eurozone between 2003 and 2015. Similar evidence is found for the UK during the post-crisis period. Keywords: stock

Comparative analysis of Spanish Banks’ Standalone credit profile

The paper studies the relationship between four differently rated bank’s financial profile and their standalone credit rating issued by Moody’s. The comparative analysis shows an example that despite their pricing power and geographical coverage, larger banks do not necessarily have better credit ratings. Instead, business model and risk appetite seem to be the defining factors of banks’ vulnerability to shocks, such as the Spanish real estate crisis. The risk-return relationship is also identified in the banks’ fundamentals meaning that while expansionary strategy in riskier asset classes enhances margins, it also potentially distorts the credit risk profile.

Exploiting the cointrgration between vix and CDS in a credit market timing model

We investigate the cointegration between VIX and CDS indices, and the possibility of exploiting it in an existing credit market timing investment model. We find cointegration over most of the sample period and the leadership of VIX over the CDS in the price discovery process. We present two methods for including cointegration into the model. Both strategies improve the in-sample and out-of-sample model performances, even though out-of-sample results are weaker. We find that in-sample better performances are explained by a stronger cointegration, concluding that in the presence of cointegration our strategies can be profitable in an investment model that considers transaction costs.

A new credit monitoring framework for agents' networks

The purpose of this work is to develop a practicable approach for Telecom firms to manage the credit risk exposition to their commercial agents’ network. Particularly it will try to approach the problem of credit concession to clients’ from a corporation perspective and explore the particular scenario of agents that are part of the commercial chain of the corporation and therefore are not end-users. The agents’ network that served as a model for the presented study is composed by companies that, at the same time, are both clients and suppliers of the Telecommunication Company. In that sense the credit exposition analysis must took into consideration all financial fluxes, both inbound and outbound. The current strain on the Financial Sector in Portugal, and other peripheral European economies, combined with the high leverage situation of most companies, generates an environment prone to credit default risk. Due to these circumstances managing credit risk exposure is becoming increasingly a critical function for every company Financial Department. The approach designed in the current study combined two traditional risk monitoring tools: credit risk scoring and credit limitation policies. The objective was to design a new credit monitoring framework that is more flexible, uses both external and internal relationship history to assess risk and takes into consideration commercial objectives inside the agents’ network. Although not explored at length, the blueprint of a Credit Governance model was created for implementing the new credit monitoring framework inside the telecom firm. The Telecom Company that served as a model for the present work decided to implement the new Credit Monitoring framework after this was presented to its Executive Commission.

Tree species diversity in a seasonally-dry forest: the case of the Pinkaití site, in the Kayapó Indigenous Area, Southeastern limits of the Amazon

This study investigates patterns of forest structure and tree species diversity in an anthropogenic palm grove and undisturbed areas at the seasonally-dry Pinkaití research station, in the Kayapó Indigenous Area. This site, managed by the Conservation International do Brasil, is the most southeastern site floristically surveyed in the Amazon until now. The secondary and a nearby undisturbed forest were sampled in a group of 52 floristic plots of 0.0625-ha (25x25-m) where all trees with DBH > 10 cm were measured and identified. The analyses were complemented with other two floristic plots of 1-ha (10x1000-m). The present study has shown that the Pinkaití, like other seasonally-dry forests, have great heterogeneity in forest structure and composition, associated with biotic characteristics of the most important tree species, natural disturbance and history of land-use. The palm grove, moderately dominated by the arborescent palm Attalea maripa (Aubl.) Mart., presented high tree species diversity and was floristically similar to undisturbed forests at the study site. It is discussed the importance of large arborescent palms for the seasonally-dry Amazon forests regeneration.

New records of Fredius denticulatus (H. Milne-Edwards, 1853) and F. reflexifrons (Ortmann, 1897), and the eastern limits of the distribution of pseudothelphusid crabs (Crustacea: Decapoda) in Brazil

The occurence of Fredius reflexifrons (Ortmann, 1897), a pseudothelphusid crab widely distributed in the Amazon region and the Atlantic Guianas, is recorded from the state of Ceará, northeastern Brazil. Other records of this species and Fredius denticulatus (H. Milne-Edwards, 1853) from the Amazon region are also presented. A discussion is made on the eastern limits of the distribution of the family Pseudothelphusidae in Brazil.

Evidence of Wγγ production in pp collisions at s√=8 TeV and limits on anomalous quartic gauge couplings with the ATLAS detector

This Letter reports evidence of triple gauge boson production pp→W(ℓν)γγ+X, which is accessible for the first time with the 8 TeV LHC data set. The fiducial cross section for this process is measured in a data sample corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 20.3 fb−1, collected by the ATLAS detector in 2012. Events are selected using the W boson decay to eν or μν as well as requiring two isolated photons. The measured cross section is used to set limits on anomalous quartic gauge couplings in the high diphoton mass region.

Measurement of the WW+WZ cross section and limits on anomalous triple gauge couplings using final states with one lepton, missing transverse momentum, and two jets with the ATLAS detector at s√=7 TeV

The production of a W boson decaying to eν or μν in association with a W or Z boson decaying to two jets is studied using 4.6 fb−1 of proton--proton collision data at s√=7 TeV recorded with the ATLAS detector at the LHC. The combined WW+WZ cross section is measured with a significance of 3.4σ and is found to be 68±7 (stat.)±19 (syst.) pb, in agreement with the Standard Model expectation of 61.1±2.2 pb. The distribution of the transverse momentum of the dijet system is used to set limits on anomalous contributions to the triple gauge coupling vertices and on parameters of an effective-field-theory model.

Chaotic dynamics in credit constrained emerging economies

This paper analyzes the role of financial development as a source of endogenous instability in small open economies. By assuming that firms face credit constraints, our model displays a complex dynamic behavior for intermediate values of the parameter representing the level of financial development of the economy. The basic implication of our model is that economies experiencing a process of financial development are more unstable than both very underdeveloped and very developed economies. Our instability concept means that small shocks have a persistent effect on the long run behavior of the model and also that economies can exhibit cycles with a very high period or even chaotic dynamic patterns.

Credit markets and the propagation of monetary policy shocks

This paper analyzes the propagation of monetary policy shocks through the creation of credit in an economy. Models of the monetary transmission mechanism typically feature responses which last for a few quarters contrary to what the empirical evidence suggests. To propagate the impact of monetary shocks over time, these models introduce adjustment costs by which agents find it optimal to change their decisions slowly. This paper presents another explanation that does not rely on any sort of adjustment costs or stickiness. In our economy, agents own assets and make occupational choices. Banks intermediate between agents demanding and supplying assets. Our interpretation is based on the way banks create credit and how the monetary authority affects the process of financial intermediation through its monetary policy. As the central bank lowers the interest rate by buying government bonds in exchange for reserves, high productive entrepreneurs are able to borrow more resources from low productivity agents. We show that this movement of capital among agents sets in motion a response of the economy that resembles an expansionary phase of the cycle.

Can competition in the credit market be excessive?

We study how market power affects investment and welfare when banks choose between restricting loan sizes and monitoring, in order to alleviate an underlying moral hazard problem. The impact of market power on aggregate welfare is the result of two countervailing effects. An increase in banks' market power results in: (i) higher lending rates, which worsens the borrower's incentive problem and reduces investment by unmonitored firms, (ii) higher monitoring effort, which reduces the proportion of credit-constrained firms. Whenever the second effect dominates, it is optimal to provide banks with some degree of market power.

Homotopy limits for 2-categories

We study homotopy limits for 2-categories using the theory of Quillen model categories. In order to do so, we establish the existence of projective and injective model structures on diagram 2-categories. Using these results, we describe the homotopical behaviour not only of conical limits but also of weighted limits. Finally, pseudo-limits are related to homotopy limits.

Weighted limits in simplicial homotopy theory

We extend the theory of Quillen adjunctions by combining ideas of homotopical algebra and of enriched category theory. Our results describe how the formulas for homotopy colimits of Bousfield and Kan arise from general formulas describing the derived functor of the weighted colimit functor.