Export-market dynamics and the probability of firm closure: Evidence for the UK

This study presents the first empirical analysis of the determinants of firm closure in the UK with an emphasis on the role of export-market dynamics, using panel data for a nationally representative group of firms operating in all-market based sectors during 1997-2003. Our findings show that the probability of closure is (cet. par.) significantly lower for exporters, particularly those experiencing export-market entry and exit. Having controlled for other attributes associated with productivity (such as size and export status), the following factors are found to increase the firm’s survival prospects: higher capital intensity and TFP, foreign ownership, young age, displacement effects (through relatively high rates of entry of firms in each industry), and belonging to certain industries. Interestingly, increased import penetration (a proxy for lower trade costs) leads to a lower hazard rate for exporting entrants and continuous exporters, whilst inducing a higher hazard rate for domestic producers or those that quit exporting.

Prevalence of frailty indicators and association with socioeconomic status in middle-aged and older adults in a swiss region with universal health insurance coverage : a population-based cross-sectional study

Frailty prevalence in older adults has been reported but is largely unknown in middle-aged adults. We determined the prevalence of frailty indicators among middle-aged and older adults from a general Swiss population characterized by universal health insurance coverage and assessed the determinants of frailty with a special focus on socioeconomic status. Participants aged 50 and more from the population-based 2006-2010 Bus Santé study were included (N = 2,930). Four frailty indicators (weakness, shrinking, exhaustion, and low activity) were measured according to standard definitions. Multivariate logistic regressions were used to determine associations. Overall, 63.5%, 28.7%, and 7.8% participants presented no frailty indicators, one frailty indicator, and two or more frailty indicators, respectively. Among middle-aged participants (50-65 years), 75.1%, 22.2%, and 2.7% presented 0, 1, and 2 or more frailty indicators. The number of frailty indicators was positively associated with age, hypertension, and current smoking and negatively associated with male gender, body mass index, waist-to-hip ratio, and serum total cholesterol level. Lower income level but not education was associated with higher number of frailty indicators. Frailty indicators are frequently encountered in both older and middle-aged adults from the Swiss general population. Despite universal health insurance coverage, household income is independently associated with frailty.

Separating Myth from Probability: the Origins and Evolution of QWERTY

We use basic probability theory and simple replicable electronic search experiments to evaluate some reported “myths” surrounding the origins and evolution of the QWERTY standard. The resulting evidence is strongly supportive of arguments put forward by Paul A. David (1985) and W. Brian Arthur (1989) that QWERTY was path dependent with its course of development strongly influenced by specific historical circumstances. The results also include the unexpected finding that QWERTY was as close to an optimal solution to a serious but transient problem as could be expected with the resources at the disposal of its designers in 1873.

General Practitioners' willingness to pay for continuing medical education in a fee-for-service universal coverage health care system

Background: Sponsoring of physicians meetings by life science companies has led to reduced participation fees but might influence physician's prescription practices. A ban on such sponsoring may increase participation fees. We aimed to evaluate factors associated with physicians' willingness to pay for medical meetings, their position on the sponsoring of medical meetings and their opinion on alternative financing options. Methods: An anonymous web-based questionnaire was sent to 447 general practitioners in one state in Switzerland, identified through their affiliation to a medical association. The questionnaire evaluated physicians' willingness to pay for medical meetings, their perception of a bias in prescription practices induced by commercial support, their opinion on the introduction of a binding legislation and alternative financing options, their frequency of exchange with sales representatives and other relevant socioeconomic factors. We built a multivariate predictor logistic regression model to identify determinants of willingness to pay. Results: Of the 115 physicians who responded (response rate 26%), 48% were willing to pay more than what they currently pay for congresses, 79% disagreed that commercial support introduced a bias in their prescription practices and 61% disagreed that it introduced a bias in their colleagues' prescription practices. Based on the multivariate logistic regression, perception of a bias in peers prescription practices (OR=7.47, 95% CI 1.65-38.18) and group practice structure (OR=4.62, 95% CI 1.34-22.29) were significantly associated with an increase in willingness to pay. Two thirds (76%) of physicians did not support the introduction of a binding legislation and 53% were in favour of creating a general fund administered by an independent body. Conclusion: Our results suggest that almost half of physicians surveyed are willing to pay more than what they currently pay for congresses. Predictors of an increase in physicians' willingness to pay were perception of the influence of bias in peers prescription practices and group practice structure. Most responders did not agree that sponsoring introduced prescribing bias nor did they support the 2 introduction of a binding legislation prohibiting sponsoring but a majority did agree to an independent body that would centrally administer a general fund.

The quality of primary care in a country with universal health care coverage.

BACKGROUND: Standard indicators of quality of care have been developed in the United States. Limited information exists about quality of care in countries with universal health care coverage.OBJECTIVE: To assess the quality of preventive care and care for cardiovascular risk factors in a country with universal health care coverage.DESIGN AND PARTICIPANTS: Retrospective cohort of a random sample of 1,002 patients aged 50-80 years followed for 2 years from all Swiss university primary care settings.MAIN MEASURES: We used indicators derived from RAND's Quality Assessment Tools. Each indicator was scored by dividing the number of episodes when recommended care was delivered by the number of times patients were eligible for indicators. Aggregate scores were calculated by taking into account the number of eligible patients for each indicator.KEY RESULTS: Overall, patients (44% women) received 69% of recommended preventive care, but rates differed by indicators. Indicators assessing annual blood pressure and weight measurements (both 95%) were more likely to be met than indicators assessing smoking cessation counseling (72%), breast (40%) and colon cancer screening (35%; all p < 0.001 for comparisons with blood pressure and weight measurements). Eighty-three percent of patients received the recommended care for cardiovascular risk factors, including > 75% for hypertension, dyslipidemia and diabetes. However, foot examination was performed only in 50% of patients with diabetes. Prevention indicators were more likely to be met in men (72.2% vs 65.3% in women, p < 0.001) and patients < 65 years (70.1% vs 68.0% in those a parts per thousand yen65 years, p = 0.047).CONCLUSIONS: Using standardized tools, these adults received 69% of recommended preventive care and 83% of care for cardiovascular risk factors in Switzerland, a country with universal coverage. Prevention indicator rates were lower for women and the elderly, and for cancer screening. Our study helps pave the way for targeted quality improvement initiatives and broader assessment of health care in Continental Europe.

Theoretical estimates of consumable food and probability of acquiring food in larvae of Chrysomya putoria (Diptera: Calliphoridae)

An indirect estimate of consumable food and probability of acquiring food in a blowfly species, Chrysomya putoria, is presented. This alternative procedure combines three distinct models to estimate consumable food in the context of the exploitative competition experienced by immature individuals in blowfly populations. The relevant parameters are derived from data for pupal weight and survival and estimates of density-independent larval mortality in twenty different larval densities. As part of this procedure, the probability of acquiring food per unit of time and the time taken to exhaust the food supply are also calculated. The procedure employed here may be valuable for estimations in insects whose immature stages develop inside the food substrate, where it is difficult to partial out confounding effects such as separation of faeces. This procedure also has the advantage of taking into account the population dynamics of immatures living under crowded conditions, which are particularly characteristic of blowflies and other insects as well.

Progesterone down-regulates the open probability of the amiloride-sensitive epithelial sodium channel via a Nedd4-2-dependent mechanism.

Activation of the mitogen-activated protein (MAP) kinase cascade by progesterone in Xenopus oocytes leads to a marked down-regulation of activity of the amiloride-sensitive epithelial sodium channel (ENaC). Here we have studied the signaling pathways involved in progesterone effect on ENaC activity. We demonstrate that: (i) the truncation of the C termini of the alphabetagammaENaC subunits results in the loss of the progesterone effect on ENaC; (ii) the effect of progesterone was also suppressed by mutating conserved tyrosine residues in the Pro-X-X-Tyr (PY) motif of the C termini of the beta and gamma ENaC subunits (beta(Y618A) and gamma(Y628A)); (iii) the down-regulation of ENaC activity by progesterone was also suppressed by co-expression ENaC subunits with a catalytically inactive mutant of Nedd4-2, a ubiquitin ligase that has been previously demonstrated to decrease ENaC cell-surface expression via a ubiquitin-dependent internalization/degradation mechanism; (iv) the effect of progesterone was significantly reduced by suppression of consensus sites (beta(T613A) and gamma(T623A)) for ENaC phosphorylation by the extracellular-regulated kinase (ERK), a MAP kinase previously shown to facilitate the binding of Nedd4 ubiquitin ligases to ENaC; (v) the quantification of cell-surface-expressed ENaC subunits revealed that progesterone decreases ENaC open probability (whole cell P(o), wcP(o)) and not its cell-surface expression. Collectively, these results demonstrate that the binding of active Nedd4-2 to ENaC is a crucial step in the mechanism of ENaC inhibition by progesterone. Upon activation of ERK, the effect of Nedd4-2 on ENaC open probability can become more important than its effect on ENaC cell-surface expression.

Probability of achieving optimal molecular response to imatinib in chronic myeloid leukemia (CML) patients: Pharmacokinetic/Pharmacodynamic (PK/PD) relationships observed under field-conditions

Objectives: Imatinib has been increasingly proposed for therapeutic drug monitoring (TDM), as trough concentrations (Cmin) correlate with response rates in CML patients. This analysis aimed to evaluate the impact of imatinib exposure on optimal molecular response rates in a large European cohort of patients followed by centralized TDM.¦Methods: Sequential PK/PD analysis was performed in NONMEM 7 on 2230 plasma (PK) samples obtained along with molecular response (PD) data from 1299 CML patients. Model-based individual Bayesian estimates of exposure, parameterized as to initial dose adjusted and log-normalized Cmin (log-Cmin) or clearance (CL), were investigated as potential predictors of optimal molecular response, while accounting for time under treatment (stratified at 3 years), gender, CML phase, age, potentially interacting comedication, and TDM frequency. PK/PD analysis used mixed-effect logistic regression (iterative two-stage method) to account for intra-patient correlation.¦Results: In univariate analyses, CL, log-Cmin, time under treatment, TDM frequency, gender (all p<0.01) and CML phase (p=0.02) were significant predictors of the outcome. In multivariate analyses, all but log-Cmin remained significant (p<0.05). Our model estimates a 54.1% probability of optimal molecular response in a female patient with a median CL of 14.4 L/h, increasing by 4.7% with a 35% decrease in CL (percentile 10 of CL distribution), and decreasing by 6% with a 45% increased CL (percentile 90), respectively. Male patients were less likely than female to be in optimal response (odds ratio: 0.62, p<0.001), with an estimated probability of 42.3%.¦Conclusions: Beyond CML phase and time on treatment, expectedly correlated to the outcome, an effect of initial imatinib exposure on the probability of achieving optimal molecular response was confirmed in field-conditions by this multivariate analysis. Interestingly, male patients had a higher risk of suboptimal response, which might not exclusively derive from their 18.5% higher CL, but also from reported lower adherence to the treatment. A prospective longitudinal study would be desirable to confirm the clinical importance of identified covariates and to exclude biases possibly affecting this observational survey.

Prevention of transfusional Trypanosoma cruzi infection in Latin America

Trypanosoma cruzi is a protozoan infection widely spread in Latin America, from Mexico in the north to Argentina and Chile in the south. The second most important way of acquiring the infection is by blood transfusion. Even if most countries of Latin America have law/decree/norms, that make mandatory the screening of blood donors for infectious diseases, including T. cruzi (El Salvador and Nicaragua do not have laws on the subject), there is usually no enforcement or it is very lax. Analysis of published serologic surveys of T. cruzi antibodies in blood donors done in 1993, indicating the number of donors and screening coverage for T. cruzi in ten countries of Central and South America indicated that the probability of receiving a potentially infected transfusion unit in each country varied from 1,096 per 10,000 transfusions in Bolivia, the highest, to 13.02 or 13.86 per 10,000 transfusions in Honduras and Venezuela respectively, where screening coverage was 100%. On the other hand the probability of transmitting a T. cruzi infected unit was 219/10,000 in Bolivia, 24/10,000 in Colombia, 17/10,000 in El Salvador, and around 2-12/10,000 for the seven other countries. Infectivity risks defined as the likelihood of being infected when receiving an infected transfusion unit were assumed to be 20% for T. cruzi. Based on this, estimates of the absolute number of infections induced by transfusion indicated that they were 832, 236, and 875 in Bolivia, Chile and Colombia respectively. In all the other countries varied from seven in Honduras to 85 in El Salvador. Since 1993, the situation has improved. At that time only Honduras and Venezuela screened 100% of donors, while seven countries, Argentina, Colombia, El Salvador, Honduras, Paraguay, Uruguay and Venezuela, did the same in 1996. In Central America, without information from Guatemala, the screening of donors for T. cruzi prevented the transfusion of 1,481 infected units and the potential infection of 300 individuals in 1996. In the same year, in seven countries of South America, the screening prevented the transfusion of 36,017 infected units and 7, 201 potential cases of transfusional infection.

Activity in inferior parietal and medial prefrontal cortex signals the accumulation of evidence in a probability learning task.

In an uncertain environment, probabilities are key to predicting future events and making adaptive choices. However, little is known about how humans learn such probabilities and where and how they are encoded in the brain, especially when they concern more than two outcomes. During functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI), young adults learned the probabilities of uncertain stimuli through repetitive sampling. Stimuli represented payoffs and participants had to predict their occurrence to maximize their earnings. Choices indicated loss and risk aversion but unbiased estimation of probabilities. BOLD response in medial prefrontal cortex and angular gyri increased linearly with the probability of the currently observed stimulus, untainted by its value. Connectivity analyses during rest and task revealed that these regions belonged to the default mode network. The activation of past outcomes in memory is evoked as a possible mechanism to explain the engagement of the default mode network in probability learning. A BOLD response relating to value was detected only at decision time, mainly in striatum. It is concluded that activity in inferior parietal and medial prefrontal cortex reflects the amount of evidence accumulated in favor of competing and uncertain outcomes.

The InterPro Database, 2003 brings increased coverage and new features.

InterPro, an integrated documentation resource of protein families, domains and functional sites, was created in 1999 as a means of amalgamating the major protein signature databases into one comprehensive resource. PROSITE, Pfam, PRINTS, ProDom, SMART and TIGRFAMs have been manually integrated and curated and are available in InterPro for text- and sequence-based searching. The results are provided in a single format that rationalises the results that would be obtained by searching the member databases individually. The latest release of InterPro contains 5629 entries describing 4280 families, 1239 domains, 95 repeats and 15 post-translational modifications. Currently, the combined signatures in InterPro cover more than 74% of all proteins in SWISS-PROT and TrEMBL, an increase of nearly 15% since the inception of InterPro. New features of the database include improved searching capabilities and enhanced graphical user interfaces for visualisation of the data. The database is available via a webserver (http://www.ebi.ac.uk/interpro) and anonymous FTP (ftp://ftp.ebi.ac.uk/pub/databases/interpro).

Lumbar spine texture enhances 10-year fracture probability assessment.

We found that lumbar spine texture analysis using trabecular bone score (TBS) is a risk factor for MOF and a risk factor for death in a retrospective cohort study from a large clinical registry for the province of Manitoba, Canada. INTRODUCTION: FRAX® estimates the 10-year probability of major osteoporotic fracture (MOF) using clinical risk factors and femoral neck bone mineral density (BMD). Trabecular bone score (TBS), derived from texture in the spine dual X-ray absorptiometry (DXA) image, is related to bone microarchitecture and fracture risk independently of BMD. Our objective was to determine whether TBS provides information on MOF probability beyond that provided by the FRAX variables. METHODS: We included 33,352 women aged 40-100 years (mean 63 years) with baseline DXA measurements of lumbar spine TBS and femoral neck BMD. The association between TBS, the FRAX variables, and the risk of MOF or death was examined using an extension of the Poisson regression model. RESULTS: During the mean of 4.7 years, 1,754 women died and 1,872 sustained one or more MOF. For each standard deviation reduction in TBS, there was a 36 % increase in MOF risk (HR 1.36, 95 % CI 1.30-1.42, p < 0.001) and a 32 % increase in death (HR 1.32, 95 % CI 1.26-1.39, p < 0.001). When adjusted for significant clinical risk factors and femoral neck BMD, lumbar spine TBS was still a significant predictor of MOF (HR 1.18, 95 % CI 1.12-1.23) and death (HR 1.20, 95 % CI 1.14-1.26). Models for estimating MOF probability, accounting for competing mortality, showed that low TBS (10th percentile) increased risk by 1.5-1.6-fold compared with high TBS (90th percentile) across a broad range of ages and femoral neck T-scores. CONCLUSIONS: Lumbar spine TBS is able to predict incident MOF independent of FRAX clinical risk factors and femoral neck BMD even after accounting for the increased death hazard.

Seropositivity for hepatitis B virus, vaccination coverage, and vaccine response in dentists from Campo Grande, Mato Grosso do Sul, Brazil

This study investigated the seropositivity for hepatitis B virus (HBV), the vaccination index, and the vaccine response index in dentists from Campo Grande, MS. Blood samples from 474 dentists (63.7% women and 36.3% men), with a mean age of 38.5 ± 10.5 years were analyzed by enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay to detect the serological markers: HBsAg, anti-HBs, and anti-HBc. The HBsAg positive samples were tested for anti-HBc IgM, HBeAg, and anti-HBe. A total of 51 (10.8%) dentists showed seropositivity for HBV. Three (0.6%) were HBsAg/anti-HBc/anti-HBe positive, 43 (9.1%) were anti-HBc/anti-HBs positive, and 5 (1.1%) had only anti-HBc. Viral DNA was detected by polymerase chain reaction in 9 (17.6%) out of 51 HBV seropositive samples. A vaccination index of 96.6% (458/474) was observed, although 73.1% (335/458)completed the three-dose schedule. Excluding 46 HBV seropositive individuals from 458 that reported vaccination, 412 were analyzed for vaccine response index. It was observed that 74.5% (307/412) were anti-HBs positive; this percentage increased to 79.1% when three doses were administered. The results showed a high vaccination index and a good rate of vaccine response; however, the failure in completing the three-dose schedule and the occurrence of HBV infection reinforce the need for more effective prevention strategies.

Hilbert space on probability density functions with Aitchison geometry

Compositional data analysis motivated the introduction of a complete Euclidean structure in the simplex of D parts. This was based on the early work of J. Aitchison (1986) and completed recently when Aitchinson distance in the simplex was associated with an inner product and orthonormal bases were identified (Aitchison and others, 2002; Egozcue and others, 2003). A partition of the support of a random variable generates a composition by assigning the probability of each interval to a part of the composition. One can imagine that the partition can be refined and the probability density would represent a kind of continuous composition of probabilities in a simplex of infinitely many parts. This intuitive idea would lead to a Hilbert-space of probability densitiesby generalizing the Aitchison geometry for compositions in the simplex into the set probability densities