Probabilistic cost benefit analysis of generation investment in a deregulated electricity market

A new methodology is proposed for the analysis of generation capacity investment in a deregulated market environment. This methodology proposes to make the investment appraisal using a probabilistic framework. The probabilistic production simulation (PPC) algorithm is used to compute the expected energy generated, taking into account system load variations and plant forced outage rates, while the Monte Carlo approach has been applied to model the electricity price variability seen in a realistic network. The model is able to capture the price and hence the profitability uncertainties for generator companies. Seasonal variation in the electricity prices and the system demand are independently modeled. The method is validated on IEEE RTS system, augmented with realistic market and plant data, by using it to compare the financial viability of several generator investments applying either conventional or directly connected generator (powerformer) technologies. The significance of the results is assessed using several financial risk measures.

Cost-benefit analysis of climate change – A methodological overview of recent studies

Global warming16 has already begun. Climate change has become a self-propelling and self-reinforcing process as a result of the externality associated with greenhouse- gas (GHG) emissions. Although it is an externality related to humankind, according to a number of unique features we should distinguish it from other externalities. Climate change is a global phenomenon in its causes and consequences. The long-term and persistent impacts of climate change will likely continue over centuries without further anthropogenic mechanism. The preindustrial (equilibrium) level of GHG concentration in the atmosphere cannot be restored since it is irreversible, but if we do not stabilise the actual level of atmospheric concentration, the situation will become much worse than it is now. Assessing the impacts of climate change requires careful considerations because of the pervasive uncertainties and risks associated with it.

Cost-Benefit Analysis of Climate Change (a Methodological Overview of Recent Studies)

This paper examines the methodological aspect of climate change, particularly the aggregation of costs and benefits induced by climate change on individuals, societies, economies and on the whole ecosystem. Assessing the total and/or marginal costs of environmental change is difficult because of wide range of factors that have to be involved. The subsequent study tries to capture the complexity of cost assessment on climate change therefore includes several critical factors such as scenarios and modeling, valuation and estimation, equity and discounting.

Ex Ante Cost Benefit Analyses of Community-Based DRR Interventions in the Caribbean

This report presents a study on the cost benefit analyses (CBA) and cost effectiveness analysis (CEA) of community-based disaster risk reduction (DRR) interventions in the Caribbean. The DRR interventions, implemented by the International Federation of Red Cross (IFRC), Port of Spain, in three Caribbean countries, Jamaica, Antigua & Barbuda, and Suriname, comprised the pilot phase of the Red Cross (RC) Project, Improving Climate Change Resilience of Caribbean Communities. This study is part of the endeavor by the DRR Program of Florida International University (FIU) and the United States Agency for International Development’s Office of the U.S. Foreign Disaster Assistance (USAID/OFDA) to develop and foster DRR measures in the Latin American and Caribbean region since 2008.

A Hard Bargain? A cost-benefit analysis of an improved cookstove program in India

In developing countries, access to modern energy for cooking and heating still remains a challenge to raising households out of poverty. About 2.5 billion people depend on solid fuels such as biomass, wood, charcoal and animal dung. The use of solid fuels has negative outcomes for health, the environment and economic development (Universal Energy Access, UNDP). In low income countries, 1.3 million deaths occur due to indoor smoke or air pollution from burning solid fuels in small, confined and unventilated kitchens or homes. In addition, pollutants such as black carbon, methane and ozone, emitted when burning inefficient fuels, are responsible for a fraction of the climate change and air pollution. There are international efforts to promote the use of clean cookstoves in developing countries but limited evidence on the economic benefits of such distribution programs. This study undertook a systematic economic evaluation of a program that distributed subsidized improved cookstoves to rural households in India. The evaluation examined the effect of different levels of subsidies on the net benefits to the household and to society. This paper answers the question, “Ex post, what are the economic benefits to various stakeholders of a program that distributed subsidized improved cookstoves?” In addressing this question, the evaluation used empirical data from India applied to a cost-benefit model to examine how subsidies affect the costs and the benefits of the biomass improved cookstove and the electric improved cookstove to different stakeholders.

The role of muscarinic cholinergic signaling in cost-benefit decision making

Thesis (Ph.D.)--University of Washington, 2016-08

A cost/benefit approach to performance analysis

Most performance engineering approaches focus on understanding the use of runtime resources. However such approaches do not quantify the value being provided in return for the consumption of these resources. Without such a measure it is not possible to compare the e ciency of these components (that is whether the runtime cost is reasonable given the bene t being provided). We have created an empirical approach that measures the value being provided by a code path in terms of the visible data it generates for the rest of the application. Combining this with traditional performance cost data, creates an e ciency measure for every code path in the application. We have evaluated our approach using the DaCapo benchmark suite, demonstrating our analysis allows us to quantify the e ciency of the code in each benchmark and nd real optimisation opportunities, providing improvements of up to 36% in our case studies.

A COST-BENEFIT ANALYSIS OF A 25% RPS IN MICHIGAN

Michigan depends heavily on fossil fuels to generate electricity. Compared with fossil fuels, electricity generation from renewable energy produces less pollutants emissions. A Renewable Portfolio Standard (RPS) is a mandate that requires electric utilities to generate a certain amount of electricity from renewable energy sources. This thesis applies the Cost-Benefits Analysis (CBA) method to investigate the impacts of implementing a 25% in Michigan by 2025. It is found that a 25% RPS will create about $20.12 billion in net benefits to the State. Moreover, if current tax credit policies will not change until 2025, its net present value will increase to about $26.59 billion. Based on the results of this CBA, a 25% RPS should be approved. The result of future studies on the same issue can be improved if more state specific data become available.

Benefit cost analysis applied to behavioral and engineering safety countermeasures in San Francisco, California

The state of the practice in safety has advanced rapidly in recent years with the emergence of new tools and processes for improving selection of the most cost-effective safety countermeasures. However, many challenges prevent fair and objective comparisons of countermeasures applied across safety disciplines (e.g. engineering, emergency services, and behavioral measures). These countermeasures operate at different spatial scales, are funded often by different financial sources and agencies, and have associated costs and benefits that are difficult to estimate. This research proposes a methodology by which both behavioral and engineering safety investments are considered and compared in a specific local context. The methodology involves a multi-stage process that enables the analyst to select countermeasures that yield high benefits to costs, are targeted for a particular project, and that may involve costs and benefits that accrue over varying spatial and temporal scales. The methodology is illustrated using a case study from the Geary Boulevard Corridor in San Francisco, California. The case study illustrates that: 1) The methodology enables the identification and assessment of a wide range of safety investment types at the project level; 2) The nature of crash histories lend themselves to the selection of both behavioral and engineering investments, requiring cooperation across agencies; and 3) The results of the cost-benefit analysis are highly sensitive to cost and benefit assumptions, and thus listing and justification of all assumptions is required. It is recommended that a sensitivity analyses be conducted when there is large uncertainty surrounding cost and benefit assumptions.

A cost-efficiency and health benefit approach to improve urban air quality

When ambient air quality standards established in the EU Directive 2008/50/EC are exceeded, Member States are obliged to develop and implement Air Quality Plans (AQP) to improve air quality and health. Notwithstanding the achievements in emission reductions and air quality improvement, additional efforts need to be undertaken to improve air quality in a sustainable way - i.e. through a cost-efficiency approach. This work was developed in the scope of the recently concluded MAPLIA project "Moving from Air Pollution to Local Integrated Assessment", and focuses on the definition and assessment of emission abatement measures and their associated costs, air quality and health impacts and benefits by means of air quality modelling tools, health impact functions and cost-efficiency analysis. The MAPLIA system was applied to the Grande Porto urban area (Portugal), addressing PM10 and NOx as the most important pollutants in the region. Four different measures to reduce PM10 and NOx emissions were defined and characterized in terms of emissions and implementation costs, and combined into 15 emission scenarios, simulated by the TAPM air quality modelling tool. Air pollutant concentration fields were then used to estimate health benefits in terms of avoided costs (external costs), using dose-response health impact functions. Results revealed that, among the 15 scenarios analysed, the scenario including all 4 measures lead to a total net benefit of 0.3M€·y(-1). The largest net benefit is obtained for the scenario considering the conversion of 50% of open fire places into heat recovery wood stoves. Although the implementation costs of this measure are high, the benefits outweigh the costs. Research outcomes confirm that the MAPLIA system is useful for policy decision support on air quality improvement strategies, and could be applied to other urban areas where AQP need to be implemented and monitored.

Cost effectiveness of antimicrobial catheters in the intensive care unit : Addressing uncertainty in the decision

Introduction: Some types of antimicrobial-coated central venous catheters (A-CVC) have been shown to be cost-effective in preventing catheter-related bloodstream infection (CR-BSI). However, not all types have been evaluated, and there are concerns over the quality and usefulness of these earlier studies. There is uncertainty amongst clinicians over which, if any, antimicrobial-coated central venous catheters to use. We re-evaluated the cost-effectiveness of all commercially available antimicrobialcoated central venous catheters for prevention of catheter-related bloodstream infection in adult intensive care unit (ICU) patients. Methods: We used a Markov decision model to compare the cost-effectiveness of antimicrobial-coated central venous catheters relative to uncoated catheters. Four catheter types were evaluated; minocycline and rifampicin (MR)-coated catheters; silver, platinum and carbon (SPC)-impregnated catheters; and two chlorhexidine and silver sulfadiazine-coated catheters, one coated on the external surface (CH/SSD (ext)) and the other coated on both surfaces (CH/SSD (int/ext)). The incremental cost per qualityadjusted life-year gained and the expected net monetary benefits were estimated for each. Uncertainty arising from data estimates, data quality and heterogeneity was explored in sensitivity analyses. Results: The baseline analysis, with no consideration of uncertainty, indicated all four types of antimicrobial-coated central venous catheters were cost-saving relative to uncoated catheters. Minocycline and rifampicin-coated catheters prevented 15 infections per 1,000 catheters and generated the greatest health benefits, 1.6 quality-adjusted life-years, and cost-savings, AUD $130,289. After considering uncertainty in the current evidence, the minocycline and rifampicin-coated catheters returned the highest incremental monetary net benefits of $948 per catheter; but there was a 62% probability of error in this conclusion. Although the minocycline and rifampicin-coated catheters had the highest monetary net benefits across multiple scenarios, the decision was always associated with high uncertainty. Conclusions: Current evidence suggests that the cost-effectiveness of using antimicrobial-coated central venous catheters within the ICU is highly uncertain. Policies to prevent catheter-related bloodstream infection amongst ICU patients should consider the cost-effectiveness of competing interventions in the light of this uncertainty. Decision makers would do well to consider the current gaps in knowledge and the complexity of producing good quality evidence in this area.

The importance of environmental issues and costs in Life Cycle Cost Analysis (LCCA) for highway projects

Sustainability has been increasingly recognised as an integral part of highway infrastructure development. In practice however, the fact that financial return is still a project’s top priority for many, environmental aspects tend to be overlooked or considered as a burden, as they add to project costs. Sustainability and its implications have a far-reaching effect on each project over time. Therefore, with highway infrastructure’s long-term life span and huge capital demand, the consideration of environmental cost/ benefit issues is more crucial in life-cycle cost analysis (LCCA). To date, there is little in existing literature studies on viable estimation methods for environmental costs. This situation presents the potential for focused studies on environmental costs and issues in the context of life-cycle cost analysis. This paper discusses a research project which aims to integrate the environmental cost elements and issues into a conceptual framework for life cycle costing analysis for highway projects. Cost elements and issues concerning the environment were first identified through literature. Through questionnaires, these environmental cost elements will be validated by practitioners before their consolidation into the extension of existing and worked models of life-cycle costing analysis (LCCA). A holistic decision support framework is being developed to assist highway infrastructure stakeholders to evaluate their investment decision. This will generate financial returns while maximising environmental benefits and sustainability outcome.

Towards the adoption of low-cost rail level crossing warning devices in regional areas of Australia : a review of current technologies and reliability issues

This paper discusses major obstacles for the adoption of low cost level crossing warning devices (LCLCWDs) in Australia and reviews those trialed in Australia and internationally. The argument for the use of LCLCWDs is that for a given investment, more passive level crossings can be treated, therefore increasing safety benefits across the rail network. This approach, in theory, reduces risk across the network by utilizing a combination of low-cost and conventional level crossing interventions, similar to what is done in the road environment. This paper concludes that in order to determine if this approach can produce better safety outcomes than the current approach, involving the incremental upgrade of level crossings with conventional interventions, it is necessary to perform rigorous risk assessments and cost-benefit analyses of LCLCWDs. Further research is also needed to determine how best to differentiate less reliable LCCLWDs from conventional warning devices through the use of different warning signs and signals. This paper presents a strategy for progressing research and development of LCLCWDs and details how the Cooperative Research Centre (CRC) for Rail Innovation is fulfilling this strategy through the current and future affordable level crossing projects.