Predictions of the arrival time of coronal mass ejections at 1AU: an analysis of the causes of errors

Three existing models of Interplanetary Coronal Mass Ejection (ICME) transit between the Sun and the Earth are compared to coronagraph and in situ observations: all three models are found to perform with a similar level of accuracy (i.e. an average error between observed and predicted 1AU transit times of approximately 11 h). To improve long-term space weather prediction, factors influencing CME transit are investigated. Both the removal of the plane of sky projection (as suffered by coronagraph derived speeds of Earth directed CMEs) and the use of observed values of solar wind speed, fail to significantly improve transit time prediction. However, a correlation is found to exist between the late/early arrival of an ICME and the width of the preceding sheath region, suggesting that the error is a geometrical effect that can only be removed by a more accurate determination of a CME trajectory and expansion. The correlation between magnetic field intensity and speed of ejecta at 1AU is also investigated. It is found to be weak in the body of the ICME, but strong in the sheath, if the upstream solar wind conditions are taken into account.

Characteristic magnetic field and speed properties of interplanetary coronal mass ejections and their sheath regions

Prediction of the solar wind conditions in near-Earth space, arising from both quasi-steady and transient structures, is essential for space weather forecasting. To achieve forecast lead times of a day or more, such predictions must be made on the basis of remote solar observations. A number of empirical prediction schemes have been proposed to forecast the transit time and speed of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) at 1 AU. However, the current lack of magnetic field measurements in the corona severely limits our ability to forecast the 1 AU magnetic field strengths resulting from interplanetary CMEs (ICMEs). In this study we investigate the relation between the characteristic magnetic field strengths and speeds of both magnetic cloud and noncloud ICMEs at 1 AU. Correlation between field and speed is found to be significant only in the sheath region ahead of magnetic clouds, not within the clouds themselves. The lack of such a relation in the sheaths ahead of noncloud ICMEs is consistent with such ICMEs being skimming encounters of magnetic clouds, though other explanations are also put forward. Linear fits to the radial speed profiles of ejecta reveal that faster-traveling ICMEs are also expanding more at 1 AU. We combine these empirical relations to form a prediction scheme for the magnetic field strength in the sheaths ahead of magnetic clouds and also suggest a method for predicting the radial speed profile through an ICME on the basis of upstream measurements.

From the sun to the Earth: The 13 May 2005 coronal mass ejection

We report the results of a multi-instrument, multi-technique, coordinated study of the solar eruptive event of 13 May 2005. We discuss the resultant Earth-directed (halo) coronal mass ejection (CME), and the effects on the terrestrial space environment and upper Earth atmosphere. The interplanetary CME (ICME) impacted the Earth’s magnetosphere and caused the most-intense geomagnetic storm of 2005 with a Disturbed Storm Time (Dst) index reaching −263 nT at its peak. The terrestrial environment responded to the storm on a global scale. We have combined observations and measurements from coronal and interplanetary remote-sensing instruments, interplanetary and near-Earth in-situ measurements, remote-sensing observations and in-situ measurements of the terrestrial magnetosphere and ionosphere, along with coronal and heliospheric modelling. These analyses are used to trace the origin, development, propagation, terrestrial impact, and subsequent consequences of this event to obtain the most comprehensive view of a geo-effective solar eruption to date. This particular event is also part of a NASA-sponsored Living With a Star (LWS) study and an on-going US NSF-sponsored Solar, Heliospheric, and INterplanetary Environment (SHINE) community investigation.

Jeotgalicoccus pinnipedialis sp nov., from a southern elephant seal (Mirounga leonina)

A previously unknown Gram-positive, catalase-positive, facultatively anaerobic, non-spore-forming, coccus-shaped bacterium (A/G14/99/10(T)), originating from the mouth of a female southern elephant seal, was subjected to a taxonomic analysis. Comparative 16S rRNA gene-sequencing showed that the organism formed a hitherto unknown subline within the catalase-positive, low-G+C, Gram-positive cocci, exhibiting a specific association with species of the genus Jeotgalicoccus. Sequence divergence values of approximately 7%, together with phenotypic differences, showed the unknown bacterium to be distinct from the two described species of this genus, Jeotgalicoccus halotolerans and Jeotgalicoccus psychrophilus. Based on phenotypic and phylogenetic considerations, it is proposed that strain A/G14/99/10(T)=CCUG 42722(T)=CIP 107946(T) from the mouth of a seal be classified as the type strain of a novel species of the genus Jeotgalicoccus, Jeotgalicoccus pinnipedialis sp. nov.

Corynebacterium caspium sp nov., from a Caspian seal (Phoca caspica)

A previously unknown Gram-positive, non-spore-forming, non-lipophilic, catalase-positive, irregular rod-shaped bacterium (M/106/00/5(T)) was isolated, in mixed culture, from the penis of a Caspian seal (Phoca caspica). The strain was a facultative anaerobe that was able to grow at 22 and 42 degreesC. Comparative 16S rRNA gene sequencing showed that the organism formed a hitherto unknown subline within the genus Corynebacterium. Sequence divergence values of more than 5 % from other described Corynebacterium species, together with phenotypic differences, showed that the unidentified bacterium represents a previously unrecognized member of this genus. On the basis of phenotypic and phylogenetic considerations, it is proposed that the unknown bacterium isolated from a Caspian seal (strain M/106/00/5(T) = CCUG 44566(T)=CIP 107965(T)) be classified as the type strain of a novel species of the genus Corynebacterium, Corynebacterium caspium sp. nov.

Arthrobacter nasiphocae sp. nov., from the common seal (Phoca vitulina)

An unknown gram-positive, catalase-positive, strictly aerobic, rod-shaped bacterium was isolated from the nasal cavities of two common seals. Chemical analysis revealed the presence in the bacterium of a hitherto unknown cell-wall murein [type: L-Lys-L-Ala2-Gly(2-3)-L-Ala (Gly)]. Comparative 16S rRNA gene sequencing showed that the unidentified rod was related to the Arthrobacter group of organisms, although sequence divergence values of >3% from established members of this genus indicated that it represents a novel species. On the basis of phenotypic and phylogenetic considerations, it is proposed that the unknown bacterium from seals (Phoca vitulina) be classified as a novel species, Arthrobacter nasiphocae sp. nov. The type strain of Arthrobacter nasiphocae is CCUG 42953T.

Facklamia miroungae sp. nov., from a juvenile southern elephant seal (Mirounga leonina)

An unusual gram-positive, catalase-negative, facultatively anaerobic, coccus-shaped organism that originated from a juvenile elephant seal was characterized by phenotypic and molecular taxonomic methods. Comparative 16S rRNA gene sequencing showed that the unknown coccus represents a new subline within the genus Facklamia. The unknown strain was readily distinguishable from all currently recognized species of the genus Facklamia (Facklamia hominis, Facklamia languida, Facklamia ignava, Facklamia sourekii and Facklamia tabacinasalis) by biochemical tests and electrophoretic analysis of whole-cell proteins. Based on phylogenetic and phenotypic evidence, it is proposed that the unknown bacterium be classified as Facklamia miroungae sp. nov. The type strain of F. miroungae is CCUG 42728T (= CIP 106764T). F. miroungae is the first member of the genus Facklamia to be isolated from an animal other than man.

Vagococcus fessus sp. nov., isolated from a seal and a harbour porpoise

A polyphasic taxonomic study was performed on two strains of an unknown Gram-positive, catalase-negative, coccus-shaped bacterium isolated from a dead seal and a harbour porpoise. Comparative 16S rRNA gene sequencing demonstrated that the unknown bacterium represents a new subline within the genus Vagococcus close to, but distinct from, Vagococcus fluvialis, Vagococcus lutrae and Vagococcus salmoninarum. The unknown bacterium was readily distinguished from the three currently recognized Vagococcus species by biochemical tests and electrophoretic analysis of whole-cell proteins. Based on phylogenetic and phenotypic evidence, it is proposed that the unknown bacterium be classified as a new species, Vagococcus fessus. The type strain of Vagococcus fessus is CCUG 41755T.

Stereoscopic imaging of an Earth-impacting solar coronal mass ejection: a major milestone for the STEREO mission

We present stereoscopic images of an Earth-impacting Coronal Mass Ejection (CME). The CME was imaged by the Heliospheric Imagers onboard the twin STEREO spacecraft during December 2008. The apparent acceleration of the CME is used to provide independent estimates of its speed and direction from the two spacecraft. Three distinct signatures within the CME were all found to be closely Earth-directed. At the time that the CME was predicted to pass the ACE spacecraft, in-situ observations contained a typical CME signature. At Earth, ground-based magnetometer observations showed a small but widespread sudden response to the compression of the geomagnetic cavity at CME impact. In this case, STEREO could have given warning of CME impact at least 24 hours in advance. These stereoscopic observations represent a significant milestone for the STEREO mission and have significant potential for improving operational space weather forecasting.

Evolution of coronal mass ejection morphology with increasing heliocentric distance. II. In Situ observations

Interplanetary coronal mass ejections (ICMEs) are often observed to travel much faster than the ambient solar wind. If the relative speed between the two exceeds the fast magnetosonic velocity, then a shock wave will form. The Mach number and the shock standoff distance ahead of the ICME leading edge is measured to infer the vertical size of an ICME in a direction that is perpendicular to the solar wind flow. We analyze the shock standoff distance for 45 events varying between 0.5 AU and 5.5 AU in order to infer their physical dimensions. We find that the average ratio of the inferred vertical size to measured radial width, referred to as the aspect ratio, of an ICME is 2.8 ± 0.5. We also compare these results to the geometrical predictions from Paper I that forecast an aspect ratio between 3 and 6. The geometrical solution varies with heliocentric distance and appears to provide a theoretical maximum for the aspect ratio of ICMEs. The minimum aspect ratio appears to remain constant at 1 (i.e., a circular cross section) for all distances. These results suggest that possible distortions to the leading edge of ICMEs are frequent. But, these results may also indicate that the constants calculated in the empirical relationship correlating the different shock front need to be modified; or perhaps both distortions and a change in the empirical formulae are required.

In situ signatures of interchange reconnection between magnetic clouds and open magnetic fields: a mechanism for the erosion of polar coronal holes?

We outline a method to determine the direction of solar open flux transport that results from the opening of magnetic clouds (MCs) by interchange reconnection at the Sun based solely on in-situ observations. This method uses established findings about i) the locations and magnetic polarities of emerging MC footpoints, ii) the hemispheric dependence of the helicity of MCs, and iii) the occurrence of interchange reconnection at the Sun being signaled by uni-directional suprathermal electrons inside MCs. Combining those observational facts in a statistical analysis of MCs during solar cycle 23 (period 1995 – 2007), we show that the time of disappearance of the northern polar coronal hole (1998 – 1999), permeated by an outward-pointing magnetic field, is associated with a peak in the number of MCs originating from the northern hemisphere and connected to the Sun by outward-pointing magnetic field lines. A similar peak is observed in the number of MCs originating from the southern hemisphere and connected to the Sun by inward-pointing magnetic field lines. This pattern is interpreted as the result of interchange reconnection occurring between MCs and the open field lines of nearby polar coronal holes. This reconnection process closes down polar coronal hole open field lines and transports these open field lines equatorward, thus contributing to the global coronal magnetic field reversal process. These results will be further constrainable with the rising phase of solar cycle 24.

Observational tracking of the 2D structure of coronal mass ejections between the sun and 1 AU

The Solar TErrestrial RElations Observatory (STEREO) provides high cadence and high resolution images of the structure and morphology of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) in the inner heliosphere. CME directions and propagation speeds have often been estimated through the use of time-elongation maps obtained from the STEREO Heliospheric Imager (HI) data. Many of these CMEs have been identified by citizen scientists working within the SolarStormWatch project ( www.solarstormwatch.com ) as they work towards providing robust real-time identification of Earth-directed CMEs. The wide field of view of HI allows scientists to directly observe the two-dimensional (2D) structures, while the relative simplicity of time-elongation analysis means that it can be easily applied to many such events, thereby enabling a much deeper understanding of how CMEs evolve between the Sun and the Earth. For events with certain orientations, both the rear and front edges of the CME can be monitored at varying heliocentric distances (R) between the Sun and 1 AU. Here we take four example events with measurable position angle widths and identified by the citizen scientists. These events were chosen for the clarity of their structure within the HI cameras and their long track lengths in the time-elongation maps. We show a linear dependency with R for the growth of the radial width (W) and the 2D aspect ratio (χ) of these CMEs, which are measured out to ≈ 0.7 AU. We estimated the radial width from a linear best fit for the average of the four CMEs. We obtained the relationships W=0.14R+0.04 for the width and χ=2.5R+0.86 for the aspect ratio (W and R in units of AU).

Solar origin of heliospheric magnetic field inversions: evidence for coronal loop opening within pseudostreamers

The orientation of the heliospheric magnetic field (HMF) in near‒Earth space is generally a good indicator of the polarity of HMF foot points at the photosphere. There are times, however, when the HMF folds back on itself (is inverted), as indicated by suprathermal electrons locally moving sunward, even though they must ultimately be carrying the heat flux away from the Sun. Analysis of the near‒Earth solar wind during the period 1998–2011 reveals that inverted HMF is present approximately 5.5% of the time and is generally associated with slow, dense solar wind and relatively weak HMF intensity. Inverted HMF is mapped to the coronal source surface, where a new method is used to estimate coronal structure from the potential‒field source‒surface model. We find a strong association with bipolar streamers containing the heliospheric current sheet, as expected, but also with unipolar or pseudostreamers, which contain no current sheet. Because large‒scale inverted HMF is a widely accepted signature of interchange reconnection at the Sun, this finding provides strong evidence for models of the slow solar wind which involve coronal loop opening by reconnection within pseudostreamer belts as well as the bipolar streamer belt. Occurrence rates of bipolar‒ and pseudostreamers suggest that they are equally likely to result in inverted HMF and, therefore, presumably undergo interchange reconnection at approximately the same rate. Given the different magnetic topologies involved, this suggests the rate of reconnection is set externally, possibly by the differential rotation rate which governs the circulation of open solar flux.