Tracer concentration profiles measured in central London as part of the REPARTEE campaign

There have been relatively few tracer experiments carried out that have looked at vertical plume spread in urban areas. In this paper we present results from two tracer (cyclic perfluorocarbon) experiments carried out in 2006 and 2007 in central London centred on the BT Tower as part of the REPARTEE (Regent’s Park and Tower Environmental Experiment) campaign. The height of the tower gives a unique opportunity to study vertical dispersion profiles and transport times in central London. Vertical gradients are contrasted with the relevant Pasquill stability classes. Estimation of lateral advection and vertical mixing times are made and compared with previous measurements. Data are then compared with a simple operational dispersion model and contrasted with data taken in central London as part of the DAPPLE campaign. This correlates dosage with non-dimensionalised distance from source. Such analyses illustrate the feasibility of the use of these empirical correlations over these prescribed distances in central London.

A study of the arrival over the United Kingdom in April 2010 of the Eyjafjallajökull ash cloud using ground-based lidar and numerical simulations

We make a qualitative and quantitative comparison of numericalsimulations of the ashcloud generated by the eruption of Eyjafjallajökull in April2010 with ground-basedlidar measurements at Exeter and Cardington in southern England. The numericalsimulations are performed using the Met Office’s dispersion model, NAME (Numerical Atmospheric-dispersion Modelling Environment). The results show that NAME captures many of the features of the observed ashcloud. The comparison enables us to estimate the fraction of material which survives the near-source fallout processes and enters into the distal plume. A number of simulations are performed which show that both the structure of the ashcloudover southern England and the concentration of ash within it are particularly sensitive to the height of the eruption column (and the consequent estimated mass emission rate), to the shape of the vertical source profile and the level of prescribed ‘turbulent diffusion’ (representing the mixing by the unresolved eddies) in the free troposphere with less sensitivity to the timing of the start of the eruption and the sedimentation of particulates in the distal plume.

Quantifying volcanic ash dispersal and impact of the Campanian Ignimbrite super-eruption

1] We apply a novel computational approach to assess, for the first time, volcanic ash dispersal during the Campanian Ignimbrite (Italy) super-eruption providing insights into eruption dynamics and the impact of this gigantic event. The method uses a 3D time-dependent computational ash dispersion model, a set of wind fields, and more than 100 thickness measurements of the CI tephra deposit. Results reveal that the CI eruption dispersed 250–300 km3 of ash over ∼3.7 million km2. The injection of such a large quantity of ash (and volatiles) into the atmosphere would have caused a volcanic winter during the Heinrich Event 4, the coldest and driest climatic episode of the Last Glacial period. Fluorine-bearing leachate from the volcanic ash and acid rain would have further affected food sources and severely impacted Late Middle-Early Upper Paleolithic groups in Southern and Eastern Europe

Horizontal and vertical structure of the Eyjafjallajökull ash cloud over the UK: a comparison of airborne lidar observations and simulations

During April and May 2010 the ash cloud from the eruption of the Icelandic volcano Eyjafjallajökull caused widespread disruption to aviation over northern Europe. The location and impact of the eruption led to a wealth of observations of the ash cloud were being obtained which can be used to assess modelling of the long range transport of ash in the troposphere. The UK FAAM (Facility for Airborne Atmospheric Measurements) BAe-146-301 research aircraft overflew the ash cloud on a number of days during May. The aircraft carries a downward looking lidar which detected the ash layer through the backscatter of the laser light. In this study ash concentrations derived from the lidar are compared with simulations of the ash cloud made with NAME (Numerical Atmospheric-dispersion Modelling Environment), a general purpose atmospheric transport and dispersion model. The simulated ash clouds are compared to the lidar data to determine how well NAME simulates the horizontal and vertical structure of the ash clouds. Comparison between the ash concentrations derived from the lidar and those from NAME is used to define the fraction of ash emitted in the eruption that is transported over long distances compared to the total emission of tephra. In making these comparisons possible position errors in the simulated ash clouds are identified and accounted for. The ash layers seen by the lidar considered in this study were thin, with typical depths of 550–750 m. The vertical structure of the ash cloud simulated by NAME was generally consistent with the observed ash layers, although the layers in the simulated ash clouds that are identified with observed ash layers are about twice the depth of the observed layers. The structure of the simulated ash clouds were sensitive to the profile of ash emissions that was assumed. In terms of horizontal and vertical structure the best results were obtained by assuming that the emission occurred at the top of the eruption plume, consistent with the observed structure of eruption plumes. However, early in the period when the intensity of the eruption was low, assuming that the emission of ash was uniform with height gives better guidance on the horizontal and vertical structure of the ash cloud. Comparison of the lidar concentrations with those from NAME show that 2–5% of the total mass erupted by the volcano remained in the ash cloud over the United Kingdom.

A diabatically-generated potential vorticity structure near the extratropical tropopause in three simulated extratropical cyclones

The structure of near-tropopause potential vorticity (PV) acts as a primary control on the evolution of extratropical cyclones. Diabatic processes such as the latent heating found in ascending moist warm conveyor belts modify PV. A dipole in diabatically-generated PV (hereafter diabatic PV) straddling the extratropical tropopause, with the positive pole above the negative pole, was diagnosed in a recently published analysis of a simulated extratropical cyclone. This PV dipole has the potential to significantly modify the propagation of Rossby waves and the growth of baroclinically-unstable waves. This previous analysis was based on a single case study simulated with 12-km horizontal grid spacing and parameterized convection. Here, the dipole is investigated in three additional cold-season extratropical cyclones simulated in both convection-parameterizing and convection-permitting model configurations. A diabatic PV dipole across the extratropical tropopause is diagnosed in all three cases. The amplitude of the dipole saturates approximately 36 hours from the time diabatic PV is accumulated. The node elevation of the dipole varies between 2-4 PVU in the three cases, and the amplitude of the system-averaged dipole varies between 0.2-0.4 PVU. The amplitude of the negative pole is similar in the convection-parameterizing and convection-permitting simulations. The positive pole, which is generated by long-wave radiative cooling, is weak in the convection-permitting simulations due to the small domain size which limits the accumulation of diabatic tendencies within the interior of the domain. The possible correspondence between the diabatic PV dipole and the extratropical tropopause inversion layer is discussed.

Characterisation of convective regimes over the British Isles

Convection-permitting modelling has led to a step change in forecasting convective events. However, convection occurs within different regimes which exhibit different forecast behaviour. A convective adjustment timescale can be used to distinguish between these regimes and examine their associated predictability. The convective adjustment timescale is calculated from radiosonde ascents and found to be consistent with that derived from convection-permitting model forecasts. The model-derived convective adjustment timescale is then examined for three summers in the British Isles to determine characteristics of the convective regimes for this maritime region. Convection in the British Isles is predominantly in convective quasi-equilibrium with 85%of convection having a timescale less than or equal to three hours. This percentage varies spatially with more non-equilibriumevents occurring in the south and southwest. The convective adjustment timescale exhibits a diurnal cycle over land. The nonequilibrium regime occurs more frequently at mid-range wind speeds and with winds from southerly to westerly sectors. Most non-equilibrium convective events in the British Isles are initiated near large coastal orographic gradients or on the European continent. Thus, the convective adjustment timescale is greatest when the location being examined is immediately downstream of large orographic gradients and decreases with distance from the convective initiation region. The dominance of convective quasiequilibrium conditions over the British Isles argues for the use of large-member ensembles in probabilistic forecasts for this region.

Intercontinental transport of nitrogen oxide pollution plumes

We describe the first satellite observation of intercontinental transport of nitrogen oxides emitted by power plants, verified by simulations with a particle tracer model. The analysis of such episodes shows that anthropogenic NOx plumes may influence the atmospheric chemistry thousands of kilometers away from its origin, as well as the ocean they traverse due to nitrogen fertilization. This kind of monitoring became possible by applying an improved algorithm to extract the tropospheric fraction of NO2 from the spectral data coming from the GOME instrument.As an example we show the observation of NO2 in the time period 4-14 May, 1998, from the South African Plateau to Australia which was possible due to favourable weather conditions during that time period which availed the satellite measurement. This episode was also simulated with the Lagrangian particle dispersion model FLEXPART which uses NOx emissions taken from an inventory for industrial emissions in South Africa and is driven with analyses from the European Centre for Medium-RangeWeather Forecasts. Additionally lightning emissions were taken into account by utilizing Lightning Imaging Sensor data. Lightning was found to contribute probably not more than 25% of the resulting concentrations. Both, the measured and simulated emission plume show matching patterns while traversing the Indian Ocean to Australia and show great resemblance to the aerosol and CO2 transport observed by Piketh et al. (2000).

Solução híbrida da equação de advecção-dispersão em meios porosos

Este trabalho consiste na solução híbrida da Equação de Advecção-dispersão de solutos unidimensional em meios porosos homogêneos ou heterogêneos, para um único componente, com coeficientes de retardo, dispersão, velocidade média, decaimento e produção dependentes da distância percorrida pelo soluto. Serão estudados os casos de dispersão-advecção em que o retardamento, dispersão, velocidade do fluxo, decaimento e produção variem de forma linear enquanto a dispersividade assuma os modelos linear, parabólico ou exponencial. Para a solução da equação foi aplicada a Técnica da Transformada Integral Generalizada. Os resultados obtidos nesta dissertação demonstram boa concordância entre os problemas-exemplo e suas soluções numéricas ou analíticas contidas na literatura e apontam uma melhor adequação no uso de modelos parabólico no estudo da advecção-dispersão em curto intervalo de tempo, enquanto que o modelo linear converge mais rapidamente em tempos prolongados de simulação. A convergência da série mostrou-se ter dependência direta quanto ao comprimento do domínio, ao modelo de dispersão e da dispersividade adotada, convergindo com até 60 termos, podendo chegar a NT = 170, para os casos heterogêneos, utilizando o modelo de dispersão exponencial, respeitando o critério adotado de 10^-4.

Resolução de problema de valor no contorno associado ao projeto de reatores de fluxo disperso empregados no tratamento de efluentes

The objective of this work was to develop a numerical method to solve boundary value problems concerning to the use of dispersion model for describing the hydraulic behavior of chemical or biological reactors employed in the wastewater treatment. The numerical method was implemented in FORTRAN language generating a computational program which was applied to solve cases involving reaction kinetics of both integer and fractional orders. The developed method was able to solve the proposed problems evidencing to be a useful tool that provides more accurate design of wastewater treatment reactors

Locally generated particulate pollution and respiratory symptoms in young children

BACKGROUND: Particulate matter <10 mum (PM(10)) from fossil fuel combustion is associated with an increased prevalence of respiratory symptoms in children and adolescents. However, the effect of PM(10) on respiratory symptoms in young children is unclear. METHODS: The association between primary PM(10) (particles directly emitted from local sources) and the prevalence and incidence of respiratory symptoms was studied in a random sample cohort of 4400 Leicestershire children aged 1-5 years surveyed in 1998 and again in 2001. Annual exposure to primary PM(10) was calculated for the home address using the Airviro dispersion model and adjusted odds ratios (ORS) and 95% confidence intervals were calculated for each microg/m(3) increase. RESULTS: Exposure to primary PM(10) was associated with the prevalence of cough without a cold in both 1998 and 2001, with adjusted ORs of 1.21 (1.07 to 1.38) and 1.56 (1.32 to 1.84) respectively. For night time cough the ORs were 1.06 (0.94 to 1.19) and 1.25 (1.06 to 1.47), and for current wheeze 0.99 (0.88 to 1.12) and 1.28 (1.04 to 1.58), respectively. There was also an association between primary PM(10) and new onset symptoms. The ORs for incident symptoms were 1.62 (1.31 to 2.00) for cough without a cold and 1.42 (1.02 to 1.97) for wheeze. CONCLUSION: In young children there was a consistent association between locally generated primary PM(10) and the prevalence and incidence of cough without a cold and the incidence of wheeze which was independent of potential confounders.

Analysis of atmospheric transport and the effects of seasonal and interannual transport variability on measurements made at the Pico Mountain observatory

A non-hierarchical K-means algorithm is used to cluster 47 years (1960–2006) of 10-day HYSPLIT backward trajectories to the Pico Mountain (PM) observatory on a seasonal basis. The resulting cluster centers identify the major transport pathways and collectively comprise a long-term climatology of transport to the observatory. The transport climatology improves our ability to interpret the observations made there and our understanding of pollution source regions to the station and the central North Atlantic region. I determine which pathways dominate transport to the observatory and examine the impacts of these transport patterns on the O3, NOy, NOx, and CO measurements made there during 2001–2006. Transport from the U.S., Canada, and the Atlantic most frequently reaches the station, but Europe, east Africa, and the Pacific can also contribute significantly depending on the season. Transport from Canada was correlated with the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) in spring and winter, and transport from the Pacific was uncorrelated with the NAO. The highest CO and O3 are observed during spring. Summer is also characterized by high CO and O3 and the highest NOy and NOx of any season. Previous studies at the station attributed the summer time high CO and O3 to transport of boreal wildfire emissions (for 2002–2004), and boreal fires continued to affect the station during 2005 and 2006. The particle dispersion model FLEXPART was used to calculate anthropogenic and biomass-burning CO tracer values at the station in an attempt to identify the regions responsible for the high CO and O3 observations during spring and biomass-burning impacts in summer.

Long-Range Pollution Transport: Trans-Atlantic Mechanisms and Lagrangian Modeling Methods

Over the past several decades, it has become apparent that anthropogenic activities have resulted in the large-scale enhancement of the levels of many trace gases throughout the troposphere. More recently, attention has been given to the transport pathway taken by these emissions as they are dispersed throughout the atmosphere. The transport pathway determines the physical characteristics of emissions plumes and therefore plays an important role in the chemical transformations that can occur downwind of source regions. For example, the production of ozone (O3) is strongly dependent upon the transport its precursors undergo. O3 can initially be formed within air masses while still over polluted source regions. These polluted air masses can experience continued O3 production or O3 destruction downwind, depending on the air mass's chemical and transport characteristics. At present, however, there are a number of uncertainties in the relationships between transport and O3 production in the North Atlantic lower free troposphere. The first phase of the study presented here used measurements made at the Pico Mountain observatory and model simulations to determine transport pathways for US emissions to the observatory. The Pico Mountain observatory was established in the summer of 2001 in order to address the need to understand the relationships between transport and O3 production. Measurements from the observatory were analyzed in conjunction with model simulations from the Lagrangian particle dispersion model (LPDM), FLEX-PART, in order to determine the transport pathway for events observed at the Pico Mountain observatory during July 2003. A total of 16 events were observed, 4 of which were analyzed in detail. The transport time for these 16 events varied from 4.5 to 7 days, while the transport altitudes over the ocean ranged from 2-8 km, but were typically less than 3 km. In three of the case studies, eastward advection and transport in a weak warm conveyor belt (WCB) airflow was responsible for the export of North American emissions into the FT, while transport in the FT was governed by easterly winds driven by the Azores/Bermuda High (ABH) and transient northerly lows. In the fourth case study, North American emissions were lofted to 6-8 km in a WCB before being entrained in the same cyclone's dry airstream and transported down to the observatory. The results of this study show that the lower marine FT may provide an important transport environment where O3 production may continue, in contrast to transport in the marine boundary layer, where O3 destruction is believed to dominate. The second phase of the study presented here focused on improving the analysis methods that are available with LPDMs. While LPDMs are popular and useful for the analysis of atmospheric trace gas measurements, identifying the transport pathway of emissions from their source to a receptor (the Pico Mountain observatory in our case) using the standard gridded model output, particularly during complex meteorological scenarios can be difficult can be difficult or impossible. The transport study in phase 1 was limited to only 1 month out of more than 3 years of available data and included only 4 case studies out of the 16 events specifically due to this confounding factor. The second phase of this study addressed this difficulty by presenting a method to clearly and easily identify the pathway taken by only those emissions that arrive at a receptor at a particular time, by combining the standard gridded output from forward (i.e., concentrations) and backward (i.e., residence time) LPDM simulations, greatly simplifying similar analyses. The ability of the method to successfully determine the source-to-receptor pathway, restoring this Lagrangian information that is lost when the data are gridded, is proven by comparing the pathway determined from this method with the particle trajectories from both the forward and backward models. A sample analysis is also presented, demonstrating that this method is more accurate and easier to use than existing methods using standard LPDM products. Finally, we discuss potential future work that would be possible by combining the backward LPDM simulation with gridded data from other sources (e.g., chemical transport models) to obtain a Lagrangian sampling of the air that will eventually arrive at a receptor.

Groundwater age distributions at a public drinking water supply well field derived from multiple age tracers (⁸⁵Kr, ³H/³He, and ³⁹Ar)

Groundwater age is a key aspect of production well vulnerability. Public drinking water supply wells typically have long screens and are expected to produce a mixture of groundwater ages. The groundwater age distributions of seven production wells of the Holten well field (Netherlands) were estimated from tritium-helium (3H/3He), krypton-85 (85Kr), and argon-39 (39Ar), using a new application of a discrete age distribution model and existing mathematical models, by minimizing the uncertainty-weighted squared differences of modeled and measured tracer concentrations. The observed tracer concentrations fitted well to a 4-bin discrete age distribution model or a dispersion model with a fraction of old groundwater. Our results show that more than 75 of the water pumped by four shallow production wells has a groundwater age of less than 20 years and these wells are very vulnerable to recent surface contamination. More than 50 of the water pumped by three deep production wells is older than 60 years. 3H/3He samples from short screened monitoring wells surrounding the well field constrained the age stratification in the aquifer. The discrepancy between the age stratification with depth and the groundwater age distribution of the production wells showed that the well field preferentially pumps from the shallow part of the aquifer. The discrete groundwater age distribution model appears to be a suitable approach in settings where the shape of the age distribution cannot be assumed to follow a simple mathematical model, such as a production well field where wells compete for capture area.