Outcome-based adaptive randomization for binary data in clinical trials---Compare and contrast

Monte Carlo simulation has been conducted to investigate parameter estimation and hypothesis testing in some well known adaptive randomization procedures. The four urn models studied are Randomized Play-the-Winner (RPW), Randomized Pôlya Urn (RPU), Birth and Death Urn with Immigration (BDUI), and Drop-the-Loses Urn (DL). Two sequential estimation methods, the sequential maximum likelihood estimation (SMLE) and the doubly adaptive biased coin design (DABC), are simulated at three optimal allocation targets that minimize the expected number of failures under the assumption of constant variance of simple difference (RSIHR), relative risk (ORR), and odds ratio (OOR) respectively. Log likelihood ratio test and three Wald-type tests (simple difference, log of relative risk, log of odds ratio) are compared in different adaptive procedures. ^ Simulation results indicates that although RPW is slightly better in assigning more patients to the superior treatment, the DL method is considerably less variable and the test statistics have better normality. When compared with SMLE, DABC has slightly higher overall response rate with lower variance, but has larger bias and variance in parameter estimation. Additionally, the test statistics in SMLE have better normality and lower type I error rate, and the power of hypothesis testing is more comparable with the equal randomization. Usually, RSIHR has the highest power among the 3 optimal allocation ratios. However, the ORR allocation has better power and lower type I error rate when the log of relative risk is the test statistics. The number of expected failures in ORR is smaller than RSIHR. It is also shown that the simple difference of response rates has the worst normality among all 4 test statistics. The power of hypothesis test is always inflated when simple difference is used. On the other hand, the normality of the log likelihood ratio test statistics is robust against the change of adaptive randomization procedures. ^

Improved Techniques for Acquisition and Analysis of Dynamic Contrast-Enhanced Magnetic Resonance Imaging for Detecting Vascular Permeability in the Central Nervous System

Dynamic contrast-enhanced magnetic resonance imaging (DCE-MRI) is a noninvasive technique for quantitative assessment of the integrity of blood-brain barrier and blood-spinal cord barrier (BSCB) in the presence of central nervous system pathologies. However, the results of DCE-MRI show substantial variability. The high variability can be caused by a number of factors including inaccurate T1 estimation, insufficient temporal resolution and poor contrast-to-noise ratio. My thesis work is to develop improved methods to reduce the variability of DCE-MRI results. To obtain fast and accurate T1 map, the Look-Locker acquisition technique was implemented with a novel and truly centric k-space segmentation scheme. In addition, an original multi-step curve fitting procedure was developed to increase the accuracy of T1 estimation. A view sharing acquisition method was implemented to increase temporal resolution, and a novel normalization method was introduced to reduce image artifacts. Finally, a new clustering algorithm was developed to reduce apparent noise in the DCE-MRI data. The performance of these proposed methods was verified by simulations and phantom studies. As part of this work, the proposed techniques were applied to an in vivo DCE-MRI study of experimental spinal cord injury (SCI). These methods have shown robust results and allow quantitative assessment of regions with very low vascular permeability. In conclusion, applications of the improved DCE-MRI acquisition and analysis methods developed in this thesis work can improve the accuracy of the DCE-MRI results.

Synergistic effects of pCO2 and iron availability on nutrient consumption ratio of the Bering Sea phytoplankton community

Little is known concerning the effect of CO2 on phytoplankton ecophysiological processes under nutrient and trace element-limited conditions, because most CO2 manipulation experiments have been conducted under elements-replete conditions. To investigate the effects of CO2 and iron availability on phytoplankton ecophysiology, we conducted an experiment in September 2009 using a phytoplankton community in the iron limited, high-nutrient, low-chlorophyll (HNLC) region of the Bering Sea basin . Carbonate chemistry was controlled by the bubbling of the several levels of CO2 concentration (180, 380, 600, and 1000 ppm) controlled air, and two iron conditions were established, one with and one without the addition of inorganic iron. We demonstrated that in the iron-limited control conditions, the specific growth rate and the maximum photochemical quantum efficiency (Fv/Fm) of photosystem (PS) II decreased with increasing CO2 levels, suggesting a further decrease in iron bioavailability under the high-CO2 conditions. In addition, biogenic silica to particulate nitrogen and biogenic silica to particulate organic carbon ratios increased from 2.65 to 3.75 and 0.39 to 0.50, respectively, with an increase in the CO2 level in the iron-limited controls. By contrast, the specific growth rate, Fv/Fm values and elemental compositions in the iron-added treatments did not change in response to the CO2 variations, indicating that the addition of iron canceled out the effect of the modulation of iron bioavailability due to the change in carbonate chemistry. Our results suggest that high-CO2 conditions can alter the biogeochemical cycling of nutrients through decreasing iron bioavailability in the iron-limited HNLC regions in the future.

X-ray fluorescence scanning of discrete samples on the Schwalbenberg II loess-paleosol sequence, raw data, magnetic susceptibility, organic carbon and U-ratio as grainsize index

The Schwalbenberg II loess-paleosol sequence (LPS) denotes a key site for Marine Isotope Stage (MIS 3) in Western Europe owing to eight succeeding cambisols, which primarily constitute the Ahrgau Subformation. Therefore, this LPS qualifies as a test candidate for the potential of temporal high-resolution geochemical data obtained X-ray fluorescence (XRF) scanning of discrete samplesproviding a fast and non-destructive tool for determining the element composition. The geochemical data is first contextualized to existing proxy data such as magnetic susceptibility (MS) and organic carbon (Corg) and then aggregated to element log ratios characteristic for weathering intensity [LOG (Ca/Sr), LOG (Rb/Sr), LOG (Ba/Sr), LOG (Rb/K)] and dust provenance [LOG (Ti/Zr), LOG (Ti/Al), LOG (Si/Al)]. Generally, an interpretation of rock magnetic particles is challenged in western Europe, where not only magnetic enhancement but also depletion plays a role. Our data indicates leaching and top-soil erosion induced MS depletion at the Schwalbenberg II LPS. Besides weathering, LOG (Ca/Sr) is susceptible for secondary calcification. Thus, also LOG (Rb/Sr) and LOG (Ba/Sr) are shown to be influenced by calcification dynamics. Consequently, LOG (Rb/K) seems to be the most suitable weathering index identifying the Sinzig Soils S1 and S2 as the most pronounced paleosols for this site. Sinzig Soil S3 is enclosed by gelic gleysols and in contrast to S1 and S2 only initially weathered pointing to colder climate conditions. Also the Remagen Soils are characterized by subtle to moderate positive excursions in the weathering indices. Comparing the Schwalbenberg II LPS with the nearby Eifel Lake Sediment Archive (ELSA) and other more distant German, Austrian and Czech LPS while discussing time and climate as limiting factors for pedogenesis, we suggest that the lithologically determined paleosols are in-situ soil formations. The provenance indices document a Zr-enrichment at the transition from the Ahrgau to the Hesbaye Subformation. This is explained by a conceptual model incorporating multiple sediment recycling and sorting effects in eolian and fluvial domains.

Effects of ocean acidification on respiration, growth and C:N ratio of arctic Hyas araneus larvae

Early life stages of marine crustaceans respond sensitively to elevated seawater PCO2. However, the underlying physiological mechanisms have not been studied well. We therefore investigated the effects of elevated seawater PCO2 on oxygen consumption, dry weight, elemental composition, median developmental time (MDT) and mortality in zoea I larvae of the spider crab Hyas araneus (Svalbard 79°N/11°E; collection, May 2009; hatch, December 2009). At the time of moulting, oxygen consumption rate had reached a steady state level under control conditions. In contrast, elevated seawater PCO2 caused the metabolic rate to rise continuously leading to a maximum 1.5-fold increase beyond control level a few days before moulting into the second stage (zoea II), followed by a pronounced decrease. Dry weight of larvae reared under high CO2 conditions was lower than in control larvae at the beginning of the moult cycle, yet this difference had disappeared at the time of moulting. MDT of zoea I varied between 45 ± 1 days under control conditions and 42 ± 2 days under the highest seawater CO2 concentration. The present study indicates that larval development under elevated seawater PCO2 levels results in higher metabolic costs during premoulting events in zoea I. However, H. araneus zoea I larvae seem to be able to compensate for higher metabolic costs as larval MDT and survival was not affected by elevated PCO2 levels.

Sex ratio adjustment in relation to paternal attractiveness in a wild bird population.

When the relative fitness of sons and daughters differs, sex-allocation theory predicts that it would be adaptive for individuals to adjust their investment in different sexes of offspring. Sex ratio adjustment by females in response to the sexual attractiveness of their mate would be an example of this. In vertebrates the existence of this form of sex ratio adjustment is controversial and may be confounded with sex-biased mortality, particularly in sexually size-dimorphic species. Here we use PCR amplification of a conserved W-chromosome-linked gene to show that the sex ratio within broods of a natural population of sexually size-monomorphic collared flycatchers Ficedula albicollis is related to the size of their father's forehead patch, a heritable secondary sexual character implicated in female choice. Experimental manipulations of paternal investment, which influence the size of his character in future breeding attempts, result in corresponding changes in the sex ratio of offspring born to males in those breeding attempts. In contrast, manipulations of maternal investment have no effect on future sex ratios, and there is no relationship between variables predicting the reproductive value of the brood and nestling sex ratio. Analysis of recruitment of offspring reveals similar patterns of sex ratio bias. The results suggest that female collared flycatchers be able to adjust the sex ratio of eggs ovulated in response to the phenotype of their mate. This finding is most consistent with "genetic quality" models of sexual selection.

(Table T2) Remanent anomaly and Koenigsberger ratio of ODP holes

Magnetic field strength and magnetic susceptibility were logged with the geological high-resolution magnetic tool (GHMT) at three of the holes drilled during Ocean Drilling Program Leg 178 to the west of the Antarctic Peninsula. Polarity stratigraphies derived from the GHMT logs bear close resemblance to the polarities determined from core paleomagnetism at two of the holes and were used for magnetostratigraphic dating, especially in intervals where no core was recovered. Polarity is determined in the following way. First, the susceptibility log is used to determine the induced magnetization of the sediment. Then the background field, the field of the metal drill pipe, and the field anomaly of the sediment's induced magnetization are removed from the measured total field to leave the downhole anomaly of the sediment's remanent magnetization. The sign (positive or negative) of this anomaly gave a good polarity stratigraphy for Holes 1095B and 1096C, which are located in sediment drifts. A further step, correlation analysis, is based on the fact that in an interval of normal polarity sediment the remanent anomaly will correlate with the induced anomaly, whereas in reversed polarity sediment they will anticorrelate. The magnetite-rich, fine-grained sediments found in the two holes drilled into the sediment drift have a ratio of remanent to induced magnetization (the Koenigsberger ratio) of ~1. In contrast, the coarser-grained diamict sediments on the shelf have a Koenigsberger ratio of ~0.2, and extracting the remanent part of the downhole anomaly is much more difficult. By the comparison of core and log results, we can assess the viability of the GHMT polarities in detail, what proportion of the overprint in the cores is imparted by the coring process, and whether any paleointensity information is extractable from the GHMT logs.

Driver's visibility requirements for roadway delineation. Vol. II: color identification of yellow highway paint as a function of yellow/white pigment mixture ratio. Final report.

Federal Highway Administration, Washington, D.C.

Binocular summation at contrast threshold:a new look

Contrast sensitivity is better with two eyes than one. The standard view is that thresholds are about 1.4 (v2) times better with two eyes, and that this arises from monocular responses that, near threshold, are proportional to the square of contrast, followed by binocular summation of the two monocular signals. However, estimates of the threshold ratio in the literature vary from about 1.2 to 1.9, and many early studies had methodological weaknesses. We collected extensive new data, and applied a general model of binocular summation to interpret the threshold ratio. We used horizontal gratings (0.25 - 4 cycles deg-1) flickering sinusoidally (1 - 16 Hz), presented to one or both eyes through frame-alternating ferroelectric goggles with negligible cross-talk, and used a 2AFC staircase method to estimate contrast thresholds and psychometric slopes. Four naive observers completed 20 000 trials each, and their mean threshold ratios were 1.63, 1.69, 1.71, 1.81 - grand mean 1.71 - well above the classical v2. Mean ratios tended to be slightly lower (~1.60) at low spatial or high temporal frequencies. We modelled contrast detection very simply by assuming a single binocular mechanism whose response is proportional to (Lm + Rm) p, followed by fixed additive noise, where L,R are contrasts in the left and right eyes, and m, p are constants. Contrast-gain-control effects were assumed to be negligible near threshold. On this model the threshold ratio is 2(?1/m), implying that m=1.3 on average, while the Weibull psychometric slope (median 3.28) equals 1.247mp, yielding p=2.0. Together, the model and data suggest that, at low contrasts across a wide spatiotemporal frequency range, monocular pathways are nearly linear in their contrast response (m close to 1), while a strongly accelerating nonlinearity (p=2, a 'soft threshold') occurs after binocular summation. [Supported by EPSRC project grant GR/S74515/01]

Neuronal convergence in early contrast vision: binocular summation is followed by response nonlinearity and area summation

We assessed summation of contrast across eyes and area at detection threshold ( C t). Stimuli were sine-wave gratings (2.5 c/deg) spatially modulated by cosine- and anticosine-phase raised plaids (0.5 c/deg components oriented at ±45°). When presented dichoptically the signal regions were interdigitated across eyes but produced a smooth continuous grating following their linear binocular sum. The average summation ratio ( C t1/([ C t1+2]) for this stimulus pair was 1.64 (4.3 dB). This was only slightly less than the binocular summation found for the same patch type presented to both eyes, and the area summation found for the two different patch types presented to the same eye. We considered 192 model architectures containing each of the following four elements in all possible orders: (i) linear summation or a MAX operator across eyes, (ii) linear summation or a MAX operator across area, (iii) linear or accelerating contrast transduction, and (iv) additive Gaussian, stochastic noise. Formal equivalences reduced this to 62 different models. The most successful four-element model was: linear summation across eyes followed by nonlinear contrast transduction, linear summation across area, and late noise. Model performance was enhanced when additional nonlinearities were placed before binocular summation and after area summation. The implications for models of probability summation and uncertainty are discussed.

Kaolinite/Chlorite ratio of sediment core GeoTü SL143

The ratio between the clay minerals kaolinite and chlorite has been investigated in high resolution in a late Quaternary sediment core from the central Aegean Sea. The record spans the last ca. 105 ka. The kaolinite/chlorite ratio was used to reconstruct the fine-grained aeolian dust influx from the North African deserts, mainly derived from desiccated lake depressions. It therewith can be used as a proxy for wind activity, aridity and vegetation cover in the source area. The data document three major humid phases in North Africa bracketing the formation of sapropel layers S4, S3 and S1. They occur at >105-95 ka, 83.5-72 ka and 14-2 ka. The first two phases are characterised by relatively abrupt lower and upper boundaries suggesting a non-linear response of vegetation to precipitation, with critical hydrological thresholds. In contrast, the onset and termination of the last humid period were more gradual. Highest kaolinite/chlorite ratios indicating strongest aeolian transport and aridity occur during Marine Isotope Stage (MIS) 5b, at ca. 95-84 ka. The long-term decrease in kaolinite/chlorite ratios during the last glacial period indicates a gradual decline of deflatable lake sediments in the source areas.

Stratégies reproductives et sex-ratio chez le termite Cavitermes tuberosus (Emerson, 1925) -- Biologie des Organismes et Ecologie

Recently shown in some termites, Asexual Queen Succession (AQS) is a reproductive strategy in which the primary queen is replaced by numerous parthenogenetically-produced neotenic queens that mate with the primary king. In contrast, the workforce and alate dispersers are produced sexually. If the primary king is replaced by a sexually-produced neotenic son, the matings between neotenic male and females beget asymmetries in the reproductive value of alates, promoting a female-biased alate sex-ratio. Cavitermes tuberosus (Termitidae: Termitinae) is a soil-feeding tropical species, which shows parthenogenetically-produced neotenics and an AQS syndrome. Our work aims to characterize the reproductive strategies in this species by determining (i) the developmental scheme, (ii) the genetic origin of sexuals, (iii) the level of genetic structure (analysis of 65 nests distributed in 14 sites) and (iv) the alate sex-ratio.Our results show that (i) neotenic females develop from the third or fourth nymphal instar; (ii) the majority of neotenic females (82%) are parthenogenetically-produced while only 2% of female alates are so; (iii) nests are differentiated within sites, indicating that the foundation of new nests mainly occurs by nuptial flights; (iv) numerical sex-ratio of alate-destined sexuals is balanced (SRN=0.509, IC95%=0.497-0.522) while investment sex-ratio is slightly female-biased (SRE=0.529, IC95%=0.517-0.542). Altogether, our results demonstrate AQS and its implications in C. tuberosus, and reveal particularities compared to other species in which AQS has been demonstrated: neotenic-headed nests are less frequent than primary-headed ones and neotenic females never become physogastric. AQS is found in various ecological contexts and seems phylogenetically more widespread than previously thought. This strategy shows some evolutionary advantages but these seem to differ depending on species.