Tarification logit dans un réseau

Le problème de tarification qui nous intéresse ici consiste à maximiser le revenu généré par les usagers d'un réseau de transport. Pour se rendre à leurs destinations, les usagers font un choix de route et utilisent des arcs sur lesquels nous imposons des tarifs. Chaque route est caractérisée (aux yeux de l'usager) par sa "désutilité", une mesure de longueur généralisée tenant compte à la fois des tarifs et des autres coûts associés à son utilisation. Ce problème a surtout été abordé sous une modélisation déterministe de la demande selon laquelle seules des routes de désutilité minimale se voient attribuer une mesure positive de flot. Le modèle déterministe se prête bien à une résolution globale, mais pèche par manque de réalisme. Nous considérons ici une extension probabiliste de ce modèle, selon laquelle les usagers d'un réseau sont alloués aux routes d'après un modèle de choix discret logit. Bien que le problème de tarification qui en résulte est non linéaire et non convexe, il conserve néanmoins une forte composante combinatoire que nous exploitons à des fins algorithmiques. Notre contribution se répartit en trois articles. Dans le premier, nous abordons le problème d'un point de vue théorique pour le cas avec une paire origine-destination. Nous développons une analyse de premier ordre qui exploite les propriétés analytiques de l'affectation logit et démontrons la validité de règles de simplification de la topologie du réseau qui permettent de réduire la dimension du problème sans en modifier la solution. Nous établissons ensuite l'unimodalité du problème pour une vaste gamme de topologies et nous généralisons certains de nos résultats au problème de la tarification d'une ligne de produits. Dans le deuxième article, nous abordons le problème d'un point de vue numérique pour le cas avec plusieurs paires origine-destination. Nous développons des algorithmes qui exploitent l'information locale et la parenté des formulations probabilistes et déterministes. Un des résultats de notre analyse est l'obtention de bornes sur l'erreur commise par les modèles combinatoires dans l'approximation du revenu logit. Nos essais numériques montrent qu'une approximation combinatoire rudimentaire permet souvent d'identifier des solutions quasi-optimales. Dans le troisième article, nous considérons l'extension du problème à une demande hétérogène. L'affectation de la demande y est donnée par un modèle de choix discret logit mixte où la sensibilité au prix d'un usager est aléatoire. Sous cette modélisation, l'expression du revenu n'est pas analytique et ne peut être évaluée de façon exacte. Cependant, nous démontrons que l'utilisation d'approximations non linéaires et combinatoires permet d'identifier des solutions quasi-optimales. Finalement, nous en profitons pour illustrer la richesse du modèle, par le biais d'une interprétation économique, et examinons plus particulièrement la contribution au revenu des différents groupes d'usagers.

Bayesian inference and model comparison for random choice structures

We complete the development of a testing ground for axioms of discrete stochastic choice. Our contribution here is to develop new posterior simulation methods for Bayesian inference, suitable for a class of prior distributions introduced by McCausland and Marley (2013). These prior distributions are joint distributions over various choice distributions over choice sets of di fferent sizes. Since choice distributions over di fferent choice sets can be mutually dependent, previous methods relying on conjugate prior distributions do not apply. We demonstrate by analyzing data from a previously reported experiment and report evidence for and against various axioms.

Essais en économetrie et économie de l'éducation

Cette thèse est organisée en trois chapitres. Les deux premiers s'intéressent à l'évaluation, par des méthodes d'estimations, de l'effet causal ou de l'effet d'un traitement, dans un environnement riche en données. Le dernier chapitre se rapporte à l'économie de l'éducation. Plus précisément dans ce chapitre j'évalue l'effet de la spécialisation au secondaire sur le choix de filière à l'université et la performance. Dans le premier chapitre, j'étudie l'estimation efficace d'un paramètre de dimension finie dans un modèle linéaire où le nombre d'instruments peut être très grand ou infini. L'utilisation d'un grand nombre de conditions de moments améliore l'efficacité asymptotique des estimateurs par variables instrumentales, mais accroit le biais. Je propose une version régularisée de l'estimateur LIML basée sur trois méthodes de régularisations différentes, Tikhonov, Landweber Fridman, et composantes principales, qui réduisent le biais. Le deuxième chapitre étend les travaux précédents, en permettant la présence d'un grand nombre d'instruments faibles. Le problème des instruments faibles est la consequence d'un très faible paramètre de concentration. Afin d'augmenter la taille du paramètre de concentration, je propose d'augmenter le nombre d'instruments. Je montre par la suite que les estimateurs 2SLS et LIML régularisés sont convergents et asymptotiquement normaux. Le troisième chapitre de cette thèse analyse l'effet de la spécialisation au secondaire sur le choix de filière à l'université. En utilisant des données américaines, j'évalue la relation entre la performance à l'université et les différents types de cours suivis pendant les études secondaires. Les résultats suggèrent que les étudiants choisissent les filières dans lesquelles ils ont acquis plus de compétences au secondaire. Cependant, on a une relation en U entre la diversification et la performance à l'université, suggérant une tension entre la spécialisation et la diversification. Le compromis sous-jacent est évalué par l'estimation d'un modèle structurel de l'acquisition du capital humain au secondaire et de choix de filière. Des analyses contrefactuelles impliquent qu'un cours de plus en matière quantitative augmente les inscriptions dans les filières scientifiques et technologiques de 4 points de pourcentage.

Population Ethics, Social Choice Theory, and Two problems in the Measurement of Economic Poverty

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Information customization and food choice

In this paper we employ a hypothetical discrete choice experiment (DCE) to examine how much consumers are willing to pay to use technology to customize their food shopping. We conjecture that customized information provision can aid in the composition of a healthier shop. Our results reveal that consumers are prepared to pay relatively more for individual specic information as opposed to generic nutritional information that is typically provided on food labels. In arriving at these results we have examined various model specications including those that make use of ex-post de-brieng questions on attribute nonattendance and attribute ranking information and those that consider the time taken to complete the survey. Our main results are robust to the various model specications we examine

Analisi delle preferenze per le diverse categorie di pomodoro trasformato nel food service

Il pomodoro è una delle colture principali del panorama agro-alimentare italiano e rappresenta un ingrediente base della tradizione culinaria nazionale. Il pomodoro lavorato dall’industria conserviera può essere trasformato in diverse tipologie merceologiche, che si differenziano in base alla tecniche di lavorazione impiegate ed alle caratteristiche del prodotto finito. la percentuale di spesa totale destinata all’acquisto di cibo fuori casa è in aumento a livello globale e l’interesse dell’industria alimentare nei confronti di questo canale di vendita è quindi crescente. Mentre sono numerose le indagine in letteratura che studiano i processi di acquisto dei consumatori finali, non ci sono evidenze di studi simili condotti sugli operatori del Food Service. Obiettivo principale della ricerca è quello di valutare le preferenze dei responsabili acquisti del settore Food Service per diverse tipologie di pomodoro trasformato, in relazione ad una gamma di attributi rilevanti del prodotto e di caratteristiche del cliente. La raccolta dei dati è avvenuta attraverso un esperimento di scelta ipotetico realizzato in Italia e alcuni mercati esteri. Dai risultati ottenuti dall’indagine emerge che i Pelati sono la categoria di pomodoro trasformato preferita dai responsabili degli acquisti del settore Food Service intervistati, con il 35% delle preferenze dichiarate nell'insieme dei contesti di scelta proposti, seguita dalla Polpa (25%), dalla Passata (20%) e dal Concentrato (15%). Dai risultati ottenuti dalla stima del modello econometrico Logit a parametri randomizzati è emerso che alcuni attributi qualitativi di fiducia (credence), spesso impiegati nelle strategie di differenziazione e posizionamento da parte dell’industria alimentare nel mercato Retail, possono rivestire un ruolo importante anche nell’influenzare le preferenze degli operatori del Food Service. Questo potrebbe quindi essere un interessante filone di ricerca da sviluppare nel futuro, possibilmente con l'impiego congiunto di metodologie di analisi basate su esperimenti di scelta ipotetici e non ipotetici.

Preference polymorphism for coloration but no speciation in a population of Lake Victoria cichlids

Female mating preference based on male nuptial coloration has been suggested to be an important source of diversifying selection in the radiation of Lake Victoria cichlid fish. Initial variation in female preference is a prerequisite for diversifying selection; however, it is rarely studied in natural populations. In clear water areas of Lake Victoria, the sibling species Pundamilia pundamilia with blue males and Pundamilia nyererei with red males coexist, intermediate phenotypes are rare, and most females have species-assortative mating preferences. Here, we study a population of Pundamilia that inhabits turbid water where male coloration is variable from reddish to blue with most males intermediate. We investigated male phenotype distribution and female mating preferences. Male phenotype was unimodally distributed with a mode on intermediate color in 1 year and more blue-shifted in 2 other years. In mate choice experiments with females of the turbid water population and males from a clearer water population, we found females with a significant and consistent preference for P. pundamilia (blue) males, females with such preferences for P. nyererei (red) males, and many females without a preference. Hence, female mating preferences in this population could cause disruptive selection on male coloration that is probably constrained by the low signal transduction of the turbid water environment. We suggest that if environmental signal transduction was improved and the preference/color polymorphism was stabilized by negative frequency-dependent selection, divergent sexual selection might separate the 2 morphs into reproductively isolated species resembling the clear water species P. pundamilia and P. nyererei.

Tariff-Specific Preferences and Their Influence on Price Sensitivity

For many services, consumers can choose among a range of optional tariffs that differ in their access and usage prices. Recent studies indicate that tariff-specific preferences may lead consumers to choose a tariff that does not minimize their expected billing rate. This study analyzes how tariff-specific preferences influence the responsiveness of consumers’ usage and tariff choice to changes in price. We show that consumer heterogeneity in tariff-specific preferences leads to heterogeneity in their sensitivity to price changes. Specifically, consumers with tariff-specific preferences are less sensitive to price increases of their preferred tariff than other consumers. Our results provide an additional reason why firms should offer multiple tariffs rather than a uniform nonlinear pricing plan to extract maximum consumer surplus.

Behavioural isolation may facilitate homoploid hybrid speciation in cichlid fish

Hybrid speciation is constrained by the homogenizing effects of gene flow from the parental species. In the absence of post-mating isolation due to structural changes in the genome, or temporal or spatial premating isolation, another form of reproductive isolation would be needed for homoploid hybrid speciation to occur. Here, we investigate the potential of behavioural mate choice to generate assortative mating among hybrids and parental species. We made three-first-generation hybrid crosses between different species of African cichlid fish. In three-way mate-choice experiments, we allowed hybrid and nonhybrid females to mate with either hybrid or nonhybrid males. We found that hybrids generally mated nonrandomly and that hybridization can lead to the expression of new combinations of traits and preferences that behaviourally isolate hybrids from both parental species. Specifically, we find that the phenotypic distinctiveness of hybrids predicts the symmetry and extent of their reproductive isolation. Our data suggest that behavioural mate choice among hybrids may facilitate the establishment of isolated hybrid populations, even in proximity to one or both parental species.

Sexual dimorphism and directional sexual selection on aposematic signals in a poison frog

It is commonly assumed that natural selection imposed by predators is the prevailing force driving the evolution of aposematic traits. Here, we demonstrate that aposematic signals are shaped by sexual selection as well. We evaluated sexual selection for coloration brightness in populations of the poison frog Oophaga [Dendrobates] pumilio in Panama's Bocas del Toro archipelago. We assessed female preferences for brighter males by manipulating the perceived brightness of spectrally matched males in two-way choice experiments. We found strong female preferences for bright males in two island populations and weaker or ambiguous preferences in females from mainland populations. Spectral reflectance measurements, coupled with an O. pumilio-specific visual processing model, showed that O. pumilio coloration was significantly brighter in island than in mainland morphs. In one of the island populations (Isla Solarte), males were significantly more brightly colored than females. Taken together, these results provide evidence for directional sexual selection on aposematic coloration and document sexual dimorphism in vertebrate warning coloration. Although aposematic signals have long been upheld as exemplars of natural selection, our results show that sexual selection should not be ignored in studies of aposematic evolution.

Color polymorphism and sex ratio distortion in a cichlid fish as an incipient stage in sympatric speciation by sexual selection

We investigated a Lake Victoria cichlid with a complex colour polymorphism that apparently represents one original species and two incipient species, all of which are sympatric. In laboratory breeding experiments we observed sex ratio distortion in certain matings between original and incipient species. Mate choice experiments show that males of the incipient species exhibit mating preferences against the original species, and males and females of the original species exhibit strong mating preferences against the incipient species. Mating preferences might evolve by sex ratio selection to avoid matings with distorted progeny sex ratios. Phenotype frequencies in nature suggest that mating preferences translate into mating frequencies, thus restricting gene flow and exerting disruptive sexual selection between the original and incipient species. The incipient species do not differ in morphology or ecology from the original species, implying that colour polymorphism, associated with sex ratio distortion, can be an incipient stage in sympatric speciation, and that disruption of gene flow can precede ecological differentiation

Hybrid choice model for propensity to travel and tour complexity

During the last years cities around the world have invested important quantities of money in measures for reducing congestion and car-trips. Investments which are nothing but potential solutions for the well-known urban sprawl phenomenon, also called the “development trap” that leads to further congestion and a higher proportion of our time spent in slow moving cars. Over the path of this searching for solutions, the complex relationship between urban environment and travel behaviour has been studied in a number of cases. The main question on discussion is, how to encourage multi-stop tours? Thus, the objective of this paper is to verify whether unobserved factors influence tour complexity. For this purpose, we use a data-base from a survey conducted in 2006-2007 in Madrid, a suitable case study for analyzing urban sprawl due to new urban developments and substantial changes in mobility patterns in the last years. A total of 943 individuals were interviewed from 3 selected neighbourhoods (CBD, urban and suburban). We study the effect of unobserved factors on trip frequency. This paper present the estimation of an hybrid model where the latent variable is called propensity to travel and the discrete choice model is composed by 5 alternatives of tour type. The results show that characteristics of the neighbourhoods in Madrid are important to explain trip frequency. The influence of land use variables on trip generation is clear and in particular the presence of commercial retails. Through estimation of elasticities and forecasting we determine to what extent land-use policy measures modify travel demand. Comparing aggregate elasticities with percentage variations, it can be seen that percentage variations could lead to inconsistent results. The result shows that hybrid models better explain travel behavior than traditional discrete choice models.

What initiates speciation in passion-vine butterflies?

Studies of the continuum between geographic races and species provide the clearest insights into the causes of speciation. Here we report on mate choice and hybrid viability experiments in a pair of warningly colored butterflies, Heliconius erato and Heliconius himera, that maintain their genetic integrity in the face of hybridization. Hybrid sterility and inviability have been unimportant in the early stages of speciation of these two Heliconius. We find no evidence of reduced fecundity, egg hatch, or larval survival nor increases in developmental time in three generations of hybrid crosses. Instead, speciation in this pair appears to have been catalyzed by the association of strong mating preferences with divergence in warning coloration and ecology. In mate choice experiments, matings between the two species are a tenth as likely as matings within species. F1 hybrids of both sexes mate frequently with both pure forms. However, male F1 progeny from crosses between H. himera mothers and H. erato fathers have somewhat reduced mating success. The strong barrier to gene flow provided by divergence in mate preference is probably enhanced by frequency-dependent predation against hybrids similar to the type known to occur across interracial hybrid zones of H. erato. In addition, the transition between this pair falls at the boundary between wet and dry forest, and rare hybrids may also be selected against because they are poorly adapted to either biotope. These results add to a growing body of evidence that challenge the importance of genomic incompatibilities in the earliest stages of speciation.

Interactions of maize bushy stunt phytoplasma with the leafhopper vector, Dalbulus maidis (Delong and Wolcott) (Hemiptera: Cicadellidae) and associated microbiota

Phytoplasmas are bacteria with a persistent propagative transmission by insect vectors that generates direct and indirect interactions among them. In order to understand these interactions for maize bushy stunt phytoplasma (MBSP) and the leafhopper vector Dalbulus maidis (Hemiptera: Cicadellidae), two research lines were addressed. The first one aimed to determine the indirect effects of maize infection by MBSP on some biological and behavioral parameters of the vector, whereas a second line investigated direct interactions of the phytoplasma with D. maidis during its movement through the vector body following acquisition from plants, and associated microbiota. Indirect effects were investigated in choice experiments in which alighting and oviposition preferences by D. maidis were compared on healthy vs. MBSP-infected plants with variable incubation time (diseased plants with early and advanced symptoms, or still asymptomatic). Likewise, indirect effect of MBSP on the D. maidis biology was determined in two life table experiments in which the vector was reared on healthy vs. MBSP-infected plants expressing advanced disease symptoms or still asymptomatic. Choice experiments showed that alighting and oviposition preferences of D. maidis on MBSP-infected plants compared to healthy plants depend on the pathogen incubation period in the plant. The leafhopper preferred MBSP-infected plants over healthy ones during the asymptomatic phase of the disease, but rejected infected plants with advanced symptoms. The vector was able to acquire MBSP from asymptomatic infected plants shortly (3 days) after inoculation, but transmission efficiency increased when acquisition occurred at later stages of the pathogen incubation period (≥14 days) in the source plants and the test plants showed disease symptoms faster. These results suggest that MBSP modulates D. maidis preference for asymptomatic infected plants in the early stages of the crop, allowing rapid spread of this pathogen. Maize infection by the phytoplasma had a neutral effect on most life table parameters of D. maidis; a lower net reproductivity rate (Ro) was observed in the cohort reared on MBSP-infected plants with advanced symptoms, which was compensated to some extent by a higher sexual ratio. MBSP acquisition by all vector nymphal stadia was confirmed by PCR, and the pathogen as detected in both male and female reproductive organs. Concerning direct MBSP-vector interactions, transmission electron microscopy analyses showed phytoplasma-like cells in the midgut lumen, microvilli and epithelial cells, suggesting that MBSP enters the epithelium midgut through the microvilli wall. Within the epithelial cells, mitochondria and bacteria-like cells (possibly endosymbionts) were observed together with masses of phythoplasma-like cells. In the hemocoel, phytoplasma-like cells grouped into a matrix were also observed in association with bacteria-like cells similar to those observed in the midgut epithelium. Similar associations were found in the salivary gland. Interestingly, in-situ hybridization (FISH) technique revealed a variation in diversity and abundance of the microbiota in intestine and salivary glands of D. maidis adults over time after MBSP acquisition from plants. Sulcia sp., Cardinium sp. and eubacteria increased their abundance over time, whereas Rickettsia sp. decreased. The frequent association of the vector microbiota with the phytoplasma in some tissues of D. maidis suggests that endosymbiotic bacteria may play some role in MBSP-vector interactions.

Differences in male coloration are predicted by divergent sexual selection between populations of a cichlid fish

Female mating preferences can influence both intraspecific sexual selection and interspecific reproductive isolation, and have therefore been proposed to play a central role in speciation. Here, we investigate experimentally in the African cichlid fish Pundamilia nyererei if differences in male coloration between three para-allopatric populations (i.e. island populations with gene flow) of P. nyererei are predicted by differences in sexual selection by female mate choice between populations. Second, we investigate if female mating preferences are based on the same components of male coloration and go in the same direction when females choose among males of their own population, their own and other conspecific populations and a closely related para-allopatric sister-species, P. igneopinnis. Mate-choice experiments revealed that females of the three populations mated species-assortatively, that populations varied in their extent of population-assortative mating and that females chose among males of their own population based on different male colours. Females of different populations exerted directional intrapopulation sexual selection on different male colours, and these differences corresponded in two of the populations to the observed differences in male coloration between the populations. Our results suggest that differences in male coloration between populations of P. nyererei can be explained by divergent sexual selection and that population-assortative mating may directly result from intrapopulation sexual selection.