Modeling conditional correlations of asset returns : a smooth transition approach

In this paper we propose a new multivariate GARCH model with time-varying conditional correlation structure. The time-varying conditional correlations change smoothly between two extreme states of constant correlations according to a predetermined or exogenous transition variable. An LM–test is derived to test the constancy of correlations and LM- and Wald tests to test the hypothesis of partially constant correlations. Analytical expressions for the test statistics and the required derivatives are provided to make computations feasible. An empirical example based on daily return series of five frequently traded stocks in the S&P 500 stock index completes the paper.

Factors influencing robustness and effectiveness of conditional random fields in active learning frameworks

Active learning approaches reduce the annotation cost required by traditional supervised approaches to reach the same effectiveness by actively selecting informative instances during the learning phase. However, effectiveness and robustness of the learnt models are influenced by a number of factors. In this paper we investigate the factors that affect the effectiveness, more specifically in terms of stability and robustness, of active learning models built using conditional random fields (CRFs) for information extraction applications. Stability, defined as a small variation of performance when small variation of the training data or a small variation of the parameters occur, is a major issue for machine learning models, but even more so in the active learning framework which aims to minimise the amount of training data required. The factors we investigate are a) the choice of incremental vs. standard active learning, b) the feature set used as a representation of the text (i.e., morphological features, syntactic features, or semantic features) and c) Gaussian prior variance as one of the important CRFs parameters. Our empirical findings show that incremental learning and the Gaussian prior variance lead to more stable and robust models across iterations. Our study also demonstrates that orthographical, morphological and contextual features as a group of basic features play an important role in learning effective models across all iterations.

Using a theory of planned behaviour framework to explore hand hygiene beliefs at the ‘5 critical moments’ among Australian hospital-based nurses

Background Improving hand hygiene among health care workers (HCWs) is the single most effective intervention to reduce health care associated infections in hospitals. Understanding the cognitive determinants of hand hygiene decisions for HCWs with the greatest patient contact (nurses) is essential to improve compliance. The aim of this study was to explore hospital-based nurses’ beliefs associated with performing hand hygiene guided by the World Health Organization’s (WHO) 5 critical moments. Using the belief-base framework of the Theory of Planned Behaviour, we examined attitudinal, normative, and control beliefs underpinning nurses’ decisions to perform hand hygiene according to the recently implemented national guidelines. Methods Thematic content analysis of qualitative data from focus group discussions with hospital-based registered nurses from 5 wards across 3 hospitals in Queensland, Australia. Results Important advantages (protection of patient and self), disadvantages (time, hand damage), referents (supportive: patients, colleagues; unsupportive: some doctors), barriers (being too busy, emergency situations), and facilitators (accessibility of sinks/products, training, reminders) were identified. There was some equivocation regarding the relative importance of hand washing following contact with patient surroundings. Conclusions The belief base of the theory of planned behaviour provided a useful framework to explore systematically the underlying beliefs of nurses’ hand hygiene decisions according to the 5 critical moments, allowing comparisons with previous belief studies. A commitment to improve nurses’ hand hygiene practice across the 5 moments should focus on individual strategies to combat distraction from other duties, peer-based initiatives to foster a sense of shared responsibility, and management-driven solutions to tackle staffing and resource issues. Hand hygiene following touching a patient’s surroundings continues to be reported as the most neglected opportunity for compliance.

Dynamic input to determine hip joint moments, power and work on the prosthetic limb of transfemoral amputees: ground reactions vs knee reactions

Study Design: Comparative analysis Background: Calculations of lower limbs kinetics are limited by floor-mounted force-plates. Objectives: Comparison of hip joint moments, power and mechanical work on the prosthetic limb of a transfemoral amputee calculated by inverse dynamics using either the ground reactions (force-plates) or knee reactions (transducer). Methods: Kinematics, ground reactions and knee reactions were collected using a motion analysis system, two force-plates and a multi-axial transducer mounted below the socket, respectively. Results: The inverse dynamics using ground reactions under-estimated the peaks of hip energy generation and absorption occurring at 63 % and 76 % of the gait cycle (GC) by 28 % and 54 %, respectively. This method over-estimated a phase of negative work at the hip (from 37 %GC to 56 %GC) by 24%. It under-estimated the phases of positive (from 57 %GC to 72 %GC) and negative (from 73 %GC to 98 %GC) work at the hip by 11 % and 58%, respectively. Conclusions: A transducer mounted within the prosthesis has the capacity to provide more realistic kinetics of the prosthetic limb because it enables assessment of multiple consecutive steps and a wide range of activities without issues of foot placement on force-plates. CLINICAL RELEVANCE The hip is the only joint that an amputee controls directly to set in motion the prosthesis. Hip joint kinetics are associated with joint degeneration, low back pain, risks of fall, etc. Therefore, realistic assessment of hip kinetics over multiple gait cycles and a wide range of activities is essential.

An efficient DSE using conditional multivariate complex Gaussian distribution

This paper presents an efficient noniterative method for distribution state estimation using conditional multivariate complex Gaussian distribution (CMCGD). In the proposed method, the mean and standard deviation (SD) of the state variables is obtained in one step considering load uncertainties, measurement errors, and load correlations. In this method, first the bus voltages, branch currents, and injection currents are represented by MCGD using direct load flow and a linear transformation. Then, the mean and SD of bus voltages, or other states, are calculated using CMCGD and estimation of variance method. The mean and SD of pseudo measurements, as well as spatial correlations between pseudo measurements, are modeled based on the historical data for different levels of load duration curve. The proposed method can handle load uncertainties without using time-consuming approaches such as Monte Carlo. Simulation results of two case studies, six-bus, and a realistic 747-bus distribution network show the effectiveness of the proposed method in terms of speed, accuracy, and quality against the conventional approach.

Coachable moments: Identifying factors that influence managers to take advantage of coachable moments in day-to-day management

The purpose of this study was to identify the factors that influence managers to take advantage of coachable moments in day-to-day management. Interviews with ten managers found that time, skills, and relationships were key factors considered by managers, but that these were considered within the context of potential “risk” to the manager. This paper elaborates on these findings and makes recommendations for further research into how managers consciously assess the risks associated with coaching, in order to decide whether to take advantage of an informal coaching opportunity.

Aspect-based opinion mining from product reviews using conditional random fields

Product reviews are the foremost source of information for customers and manufacturers to help them make appropriate purchasing and production decisions. Natural language data is typically very sparse; the most common words are those that do not carry a lot of semantic content, and occurrences of any particular content-bearing word are rare, while co-occurrences of these words are rarer. Mining product aspects, along with corresponding opinions, is essential for Aspect-Based Opinion Mining (ABOM) as a result of the e-commerce revolution. Therefore, the need for automatic mining of reviews has reached a peak. In this work, we deal with ABOM as sequence labelling problem and propose a supervised extraction method to identify product aspects and corresponding opinions. We use Conditional Random Fields (CRFs) to solve the extraction problem and propose a feature function to enhance accuracy. The proposed method is evaluated using two different datasets. We also evaluate the effectiveness of feature function and the optimisation through multiple experiments.

Errors in the knee joint forces and moments during gait depending on the foot and knee prosthetic components

Background Previously studies showed that inverse dynamics based on motion analysis and force-plate is inaccurate compared to direct measurements for individuals with transfemoral amputation (TFA). Indeed, direct measurements can appropriately take into account the absorption at the prosthetic foot and the resistance at the prosthetic knee. [1-3] However, these studies involved only a passive prosthetic knee. Aim The objective of the present study was to investigate if different types of prosthetic feet and knees can exhibit different levels of error in the knee joint forces and moments. Method Three trials of walking at self-selected speed were analysed for 9 TFAs (7 males and 2 females, 47±9 years old, 1.76±0.1 m 79±17 kg) with a motion analysis system (Qualisys, Goteborg, Sweden), force plates (Kitsler, Winterthur, Switzerland) and a multi-axial transducer (JR3, Woodland, USA) mounted above the prosthetic knee [1-17]. TFAs were all fitted with an osseointegrated implant system. The prostheses included different type of foot (N=5) and knee (N=3) components. The root mean square errors (RMSE) between direct measurements and the knee joint forces and moments estimated by inverse dynamics were computed for stance and swing phases of gait and expressed as a percentage of the measured amplitudes. A one-way Kruskal-Wallis ANOVA was performed (Statgraphics, Levallois-Perret, France) to analyse the effects of the prosthetic components on the RMSEs. Cross-effects and post-hoc tests were not analysed in this study. Results A significant effect (*) was found for the type of prosthetic foot on anterior-posterior force during swing (p=0.016), lateral-medial force during stance (p=0.009), adduction-abduction moment during stance (p=0.038), internal-external rotation moment during stance (p=0.014) and during swing (p=0.006), and flexion-extension moment during stance (p = 0.035). A significant effect (#) was found for the type of prosthetic knee on anterior-posterior force during swing (p=0.018) and adduction-abduction moment during stance (p=0.035). Discussion & Conclusion The RMSEs were larger during swing than during stance. It is because the errors on accelerations (as derived from motion analysis) become substantial with respect to the external loads. Thus, inverse dynamics during swing should be analysed with caution because the mean RMSEs are close to 50%. Conversely, there were fewer effects of the prosthetic components on RMSE during swing than during stance and, accordingly, fewer effects due to knees than feet. Thus, inverse dynamics during stance should be used with caution for comparison of different prosthetic components.

Improved estimation of size-transition matrices using tag-recapture data

We derive a new method for determining size-transition matrices (STMs) that eliminates probabilities of negative growth and accounts for individual variability. STMs are an important part of size-structured models, which are used in the stock assessment of aquatic species. The elements of STMs represent the probability of growth from one size class to another, given a time step. The growth increment over this time step can be modelled with a variety of methods, but when a population construct is assumed for the underlying growth model, the resulting STM may contain entries that predict negative growth. To solve this problem, we use a maximum likelihood method that incorporates individual variability in the asymptotic length, relative age at tagging, and measurement error to obtain von Bertalanffy growth model parameter estimates. The statistical moments for the future length given an individual's previous length measurement and time at liberty are then derived. We moment match the true conditional distributions with skewed-normal distributions and use these to accurately estimate the elements of the STMs. The method is investigated with simulated tag-recapture data and tag-recapture data gathered from the Australian eastern king prawn (Melicertus plebejus).

The dipole moments and molecular structure of substituted acetamides

Thioacetamide has a dipole moment substantially higher than the vector sum of the normal characteristic moments of its constituent bonds. However, the effect can reasonably be accounted for on the scheme of alterations in charge distribution and hence of bond moments proposed by Smith, Ree, Magee and Eyring. The same is probably true for chloroacetamide even though the problem of rotation about the C-C single bond renders the conclusion less certain. For cyanoacetamide, the observed moment cannot be accounted for satisfactorily on this basis.

Gluon-field contribution in QCD sum rules for the magnetic moments of the nucleons

The Wilson coefficient corresponding to the gluon-field strength GμνGμν is evaluated for the nucleon current correlation function in the presence of a static external electromagnetic field, using a regulator mass Λ to separate the high-momentum part of the Feynman diagrams. The magnetic-moment sum rules are analyzed by two different methods and the sensitivity of the results to variations in Λ are discussed.

Parameterizing Unconditional Skewness in Models for Financial Time Series

In this paper we consider the third-moment structure of a class of time series models. It is often argued that the marginal distribution of financial time series such as returns is skewed. Therefore it is of importance to know what properties a model should possess if it is to accommodate unconditional skewness. We consider modeling the unconditional mean and variance using models that respond nonlinearly or asymmetrically to shocks. We investigate the implications of these models on the third-moment structure of the marginal distribution as well as conditions under which the unconditional distribution exhibits skewness and nonzero third-order autocovariance structure. In this respect, an asymmetric or nonlinear specification of the conditional mean is found to be of greater importance than the properties of the conditional variance. Several examples are discussed and, whenever possible, explicit analytical expressions provided for all third-order moments and cross-moments. Finally, we introduce a new tool, the shock impact curve, for investigating the impact of shocks on the conditional mean squared error of return series.

Exciting Moments - Reval Hotels ja mainonnan merkitykset

Pro gradu työni käsittelee virolaisia mainoksia ja niiden kohderyhmiä. Tutkimusaihe on erityisen mielenkiintoinen, sillä virolaisesta mainonnasta on tehty kansainvälisellä tasolla varsin vähän tutkimuksia. Halusin pro gradu -työssäni selvittää, mitä analysoimillani mainoksilla halutaan viestiä, kenelle ne suunnataan sekä millaisin kielellisin ja kuvallisin keinoin niitä tuotetaan. Käytin tutkimuksen materiaalina kuutta Reval Hotels ketjun mainosta, jotka ovat ilmestyneet viron- ja/tai englanninkielisinä viimeisen kahden vuoden aikana lehdissä, esitteissä tai hotellissa pöytä- tai seinämainoksina. Tutkimukseni teoreettinen viitekehys perustui kolmeen erilaiseen näkökulmaan: mainostekstien tutkimukseen, semiotiikkaan sekä Pierre Bourdieun teoriaan symbolisesta pääomasta ja sosiaalisten luokkien eroista. Sosiologisen näkökulman käyttö oli perusteltua erityisesti sen uutuusarvon vuoksi, sillä Bourdieun teoriaa ei ole aikaisemmin hyödynnetty virolaisten mainosten tutkimuksessa. Mainosten kuvien ja tekstien analyysi osoitti, että mainokset olivat rakenteellisesti oikeaoppisesti laadittuja. Mainoksista löytyi lukuisia symbolisen pääoman elementtejä, kuten englannin kieli, raha, aika, tehokkuus ja eurooppalaisuus. Mainokset olivat samalla varsin konservatiivisia ja yllätyksettömiä. Materiaalin joukosta erottui kuitenkin yksi mainos, jolla rikottiin perinteisen mainostamisen kaavaa ja josta avautui paljon erilaisia merkityksiä. Johtopäätöksenä voitiin muun muassa todeta, että Reval Hotels voi markkinointistrategiaansa kehittämällä hankkia itselleen uusia tuottavia kohderyhmiä. Pro gradu työtäni voi myöhemmin laajentaa esimerkiksi vertailevaksi jatkotutkimukseksi, jossa tarkastellaan useampien Virossa toimivien hotellien mainontaa.

Moments of flux in intermediary liability for copyright infringement

This chapter provides an overview of a recent shift in regulatory strategies to address copyright infringement toward enlisting the assistance of general purpose Internet Service Providers. In Australia, the High Court held in 2012 that iiNet, a general purpose ISP, had no legal duty to police what its subscribers did with their internet connections. We provide an overview of three recent developments in Australian copyright law since that decision that demonstrate an emerging shift in the way that obligations are imposed on ISPs to govern the actions of their users without relying on secondary liability. The first is a new privately negotiated industry code that introduces a 'graduated response' system that requires ISPs to pass on warnings to subscribers who receive allegations of infringement. The second involves a recent series of Federal Court cases where rightsholders made a partially successful application to require ISPs to hand over the identifying details of subscribers whose households are alleged to have infringed copyright. The third is a new legislative scheme that will require ISPs to block access to foreign websites that 'facilitate' infringement. We argue that these shifts represent a greater sophistication in approaches to enrolling general purpose intermediaries in the regulatory project. We also suggest that these shifts represent a potentially disturbing trend towards enforcement of copyright law in a way that does not provide strong safeguards for the legitimate constitutional due process interests of users. We conclude with a call for greater attention and research to better understand how intermediaries make decisions when governing the conduct of users, how those decisions may be influenced by both state and non-state actors, and how the rights of individuals to due process can be adequately protected.