Towards the design and implementation of aspect-oriented programming for spreadsheets

A spreadsheet usually starts as a simple and singleuser software artifact, but, as frequent as in other software systems, quickly evolves into a complex system developed by many actors. Often, different users work on different aspects of the same spreadsheet: while a secretary may be only involved in adding plain data to the spreadsheet, an accountant may define new business rules, while an engineer may need to adapt the spreadsheet content so it can be used by other software systems.Unfortunately,spreadsheetsystemsdonotoffermodular mechanisms, and as a consequence, some of the previous tasks may be defined by adding intrusive “code” to the spreadsheet. In this paper we go through the design and implementation of an aspect-oriented language for spreadsheets so that users can work on different aspects of a spreadsheet in a modular way. For example, aspects can be defined in order to introduce new business rules to an existing spreadsheet, or to manipulate the spreadsheet data to be ported to another system. Aspects are defined as aspect-oriented program specifications that are dynamically woven into the underlying spreadsheet by an aspect weaver. In this aspect-oriented style of spreadsheet development, differentusers develop,orreuse,aspects withoutaddingintrusive code to the original spreadsheet. Such code is added/executed by the spreadsheet weaving mechanism proposed in this paper.

Social Multi-Criteria Evaluation (SMCE)

The main argument developed here is the proposal of the concept of “Social Multi-Criteria Evaluation” (SMCE) as a possible useful framework for the application of social choice to the difficult policy problems of our Millennium, where, as stated by Funtowicz and Ravetz, “facts are uncertain, values in dispute, stakes high and decisions urgent”. This paper starts from the following main questions: 1. Why “Social” Multi-criteria Evaluation? 2. How such an approach should be developed? The foundations of SMCE are set up by referring to concepts coming from complex system theory and philosophy, such as reflexive complexity, post-normal science and incommensurability. To give some operational guidelines on the application of SMCE basic questions to be answered are: 1. How is it possible to deal with technical incommensurability? 2. How can we deal with the issue of social incommensurability? To answer these questions, by using theoretical considerations and lessons learned from realworld case studies, is the main objective of the present article.

Integrated assessment of agricultural sustainability: the pros and cons of reductionism

In this paper I review a series of theoretical concepts that are relevant for the integrated assessment of agricultural sustainability but that are not generally included in the curriculum of the various scientific disciplines dealing with quantitative analysis of agriculture. I first illustrate with plain narratives and concrete examples that sustainability is an extremely complex issue requiring the simultaneous consideration of several aspects, which cannot be reduced into a single indicator of performance. Following, I justify this obvious need for multi-criteria analysis with theoretical concepts dealing with the epistemological predicament of complexity, starting from classic philosophical lessons to arrive to recent developments in complex system theory, in particular Rosen´s theory of modelling relation which is essential to analyze the quality of any quantitative representation. The implications of these theoretical concepts are then illustrated with applications of multi-criteria analysis to the sustainability of agriculture. I wrap up by pointing out the crucial difference between "integrated assessment" and "integrated analysis". An integrated analysis is a set of indicators and analytical models generating an analytical output. An integrated assessment is much more than that. It is about finding an effective way to deal with three key issues: (i) legitimacy – how to handle the unavoidable existence of legitimate but contrasting points of view about different meanings given by social actors to the word "development"; (ii) pertinence – how to handle in a coherent way scientific analyses referring to different scales and dimensions; and (iii) credibility – how to handle the unavoidable existence of uncertainty and genuine ignorance, when dealing with the analysis of future scenarios.

Simulación de departamentos de urgencias empleando un modelo basado en agentes

Los servicios de salud son sistemas muy complejos, pero de alta importancia, especialmente en algunos momentos críticos, en todo el mundo. Los departamentos de urgencias pueden ser una de las áreas más dinámicas y cambiables de todos los servicios de salud y a la vez más vulnerables a dichos cambios. La mejora de esos departamentos se puede considerar uno de los grandes retos que tiene cualquier administrador de un hospital, y la simulación provee una manera de examinar este sistema tan complejo sin poner en peligro los pacientes que son atendidos. El objetivo de este trabajo ha sido el modelado de un departamento de urgencias y el desarrollo de un simulador que implementa este modelo con la finalidad de explorar el comportamiento y las características de dicho servicio de urgencias. El uso del simulador ofrece la posibilidad de visualizar el comportamiento del modelo con diferentes parámetros y servirá como núcleo de un sistema de ayuda a la toma de decisiones que pueda ser usado en departamentos de urgencias. El modelo se ha desarrollado con técnicas de modelado basado en agentes (ABM) que permiten crear modelos funcionalmente más próximos a la realidad que los modelos de colas o de dinámicas de sistemas, al permitir la inclusión de la singularidad que implica el modelado a nivel de las personas. Los agentes del modelo presentado, descritos internamente como máquinas de estados, representan a todo el personal del departamento de urgencias y los pacientes que usan este servicio. Un análisis del modelo a través de su implementación en el simulador muestra que el sistema se comporta de manera semejante a un departamento de urgencias real.

Composition of fingermark residue: a qualitative and quantitative review

This article describes the composition of fingermark residue as being a complex system with numerous compounds coming from different sources and evolving over time from the initial composition (corresponding to the composition right after deposition) to the aged composition (corresponding to the evolution of the initial composition over time). This complex system will additionally vary due to effects of numerous influence factors grouped in five different classes: the donor characteristics, the deposition conditions, the substrate nature, the environmental conditions and the applied enhancement techniques. The initial and aged compositions as well as the influence factors are thus considered in this article to provide a qualitative and quantitative review of all compounds identified in fingermark residue up to now. The analytical techniques used to obtain these data are also enumerated. This review highlights the fact that despite the numerous analytical processes that have already been proposed and tested to elucidate fingermark composition, advanced knowledge is still missing. Thus, there is a real need to conduct future research on the composition of fingermark residue, focusing particularly on quantitative measurements, aging kinetics and effects of influence factors. The results of future research are particularly important for advances in fingermark enhancement and dating technique developments.

Regulation of the epithelial Na+ channel ENaC by Tsg101 in renal epithelial cells

Kidneys are the main regulator of salt homeostasis and blood pressure. In the distal region of the tubule active Na-transport is finely tuned. This transport is regulated by various hormonal pathways including aldosterone that regulates the reabsorption at the level of the ASDN, comprising the late DCT, the CNT and the CCD. In the ASDN, the amiloride-sensitive epithelial Na-channel (ENaC) plays a major role in Na-homeostasis, as evidenced by gain-of function mutations in the genes encoding ENaC, causing Liddle's syndrome, a severe form of salt-sensitive hypertension. In this disease, regulation of ENaC is compromised due to mutations that delete or mutate a PY-motif in ENaC. Such mutations interfere with Nedd4-2- dependent ubiquitylation of ENaC, leading to reduced endocytosis of the channel, and consequently to increased channel activity at the cell surface. After endocytosis ENaC is targeted to the lysosome and rapidly degraded. Similarly to other ubiquitylated and endocytosed plasma membrane proteins (such as the EGFR), it is likely that the multi-protein complex system ESCRT is involved. To investigate the involvement of this system we tested the role of one of the ESCRT proteins, Tsg101. Here we show that Tsg101 interacts endogenously and in transfected HEK-293 cells with all three ENaC sub-units. Furthermore, mutations of cytoplasmic lysines of ENaC subunits lead to the disruption of this interaction, indicating a potential involvement of ubiquitin in Tsg101 / ENaC interaction. Tsg101 knockdown in renal epithelial cells increases the total and cell surface pool of ENaC, thus implying TsglOl and consequently the ESCRT system in ENaC degradation by the endosomal/lysosomal system. - Les reins sont les principaux organes responsables de la régulation de la pression artérielle ainsi que de la balance saline du corps. Dans la région distale du tubule, le transport actif de sodium est finement régulé. Ce transport est contrôlé par plusieurs hormones comme l'aldostérone, qui régule la réabsorption au niveau de l'ASDN, segment comprenant la fin du DCT, le CNT et le CCD. Dans l'ASDN, le canal à sodium épithélial sensible à l'amiloride (ENaC) joue un rôle majeur dans l'homéostasie sodique, comme cela fut démontré par les mutations « gain de fonction » dans les gênes encodant ENaC, causant ainsi le syndrome de Liddle, une forme sévère d'hypertension sensible au sel. Dans cette maladie, la régulation d'ENaC est compromise du fait des mutations qui supprime ou mute le domaine PY présent sur les sous-unités d'ENaC. Ces mutations préviennent l'ubiquitylation d'ENaC par Nedd4-2, conduisant ainsi à une baisse de l'endocytose du canal et par conséquent une activité accrue d'ENaC à la surface membranaire. Après endocytose, ENaC est envoyé vers le lysosome et rapidement dégradé. Comme d'autres protéines membranaires ubiquitylées et endocytées (comme l'EGFR), il est probable que le complexe multi-protéique ESCRT est impliqué dans le transport d'ENaC au lysosome. Pour étudier l'implication du système d'ESCRT dans la régulation d'ENaC nous avons testé le rôle d'une protéine de ces complexes, TsglOl. Notre étude nous a permis de démontrer que TsglOl se lie aux trois sous-unités ENaC aussi bien en co-transfection dans des cellules HEK-293 que de manière endogène. De plus, nous avons pu démontrer l'importance de l'ubiquitine dans cette interaction par la mutation de toutes les lysines placées du côté cytoplasmique des sous-unités d'ENaC, empêchant ainsi l'ubiquitylation de ces sous-unités. Enfin, le « knockdown » de TsglOl dans des cellules épithéliales de rein induit une augmentation de l'expression d'ENaC aussi bien dans le «pool» total qu'à la surface membranaire, indiquant ainsi un rôle pour TsglOl et par conséquent du système d'ESCRT dans la dégradation d'ENaC par la voie endosome / lysosome. - Le corps humain est composé d'organes chacun spécialisé dans une fonction précise. Chaque organe est composé de cellules, qui assurent la fonction de l'organe en question. Ces cellules se caractérisent par : - une membrane qui leur permet d'isoler leur compartiment interne (milieu intracellulaire ou cytoplasme) du liquide externe (milieu extracellulaire), - un noyau, où l'ADN est situé, - des protéines, sortent d'unités fonctionnelles ayant une fonction bien définie dans la cellule. La séparation entre l'extérieure et l'intérieure de la cellule est essentielle pour le maintien des composants de ces milieux ainsi que pour la bonne fonction de l'organisme et des cellules. Parmi ces composants, le sodium joue un rôle essentiel car il conditionne le maintien de volume sanguin en participant au maintien du volume extracellulaire. Une augmentation du sodium dans l'organisme provoque donc une augmentation du volume sanguin et ainsi provoque une hypertension. De ce fait, le contrôle de la quantité de sodium présente dans l'organisme est essentiel pour le bon fonctionnement de l'organisme. Le sodium est apporté par l'alimentation, et c'est au niveau du rein que va s'effectuer le contrôle de la quantité de sodium qui va être retenue dans l'organisme pour le maintien d'une concentration normale de sodium dans le milieu extracellulaire. Le rein va se charger de réabsorber toutes sortes de solutés nécessaires pour l'organisme avant d'évacuer les déchets ou le surplus de ces solutés en produisant l'urine. Le rein va se charger de réabsorber le sodium grâce à différentes protéines, parmi elle, nous nous sommes intéressés à une protéine appelée ENaC. Cette protéine joue un rôle important dans la réabsorption du sodium, et lorsqu'elle fonctionne mal, comme il a pu être observé dans certaines maladies génétiques, il en résulte des problèmes d'hypo- ou d'hypertension. Les problèmes résultant du mauvais fonctionnement de cette protéine obligent donc la cellule à réguler efficacement ENaC par différents mécanismes, notamment en diminuant son expression et en dégradant le « surplus ». Dans cette travail de thèse, nous nous sommes intéressés au mécanisme impliqué dans la dégradation d'ENaC et plus précisément à un ensemble de protéines, appelé ESCRT, qui va se charger « d'escorter » une protéine vers un sous compartiment à l'intérieur de la cellule ou elle sera dégradée.

Four whole-istic aspects of schistosome granuloma biology: fractal arrangement, internal regulation, autopoietic component and closure

This paper centers on some whole-istic organizational and functional aspects of hepatic Schistosoma mansoni granuloma, which is an extremely complex system. First, it structurally develops a collagenic topology, originated bidirectionally from an inward and outward assembly of growth units. Inward growth appears to be originated from myofibroblasts derived from small portal vessel around intravascular entrapped eggs, while outward growth arises from hepatic stellate cells. The auto-assembly of the growth units defines the three-dimensional scaffold of the schistosome granulomas. The granuloma surface irregularity and its border presented fractal dimension equal to 1.58. Second, it is internally regulated by intricate networks of immuneneuroendocrine stimuli orchestrated by leptin and leptin receptors, substance P and Vasoactive intestinal peptide. Third, it can reach the population of ± 40,000 cells and presents an autopoietic component evidenced by internal proliferation (Ki-67+ Cells), and by expression of c-Kit+ Cells, leptin and leptin receptor (Ob-R), granulocyte-colony stimulating factor (G-CSF-R), and erythropoietin (Epo-R) receptors. Fourth, the granulomas cells are intimately connected by pan-cadherins, occludin and connexin-43, building a state of closing (granuloma closure). In conclusion, the granuloma is characterized by transitory stages in such a way that its organized structure emerges as a global property which is greater than the sum of actions of its individual cells and extracellular matrix components.

Composition of fingermark residue: a qualitative and quantitative review

This article describes the composition of fingermark residue as being a complex system with numerous compounds coming from different sources and evolving over time from the initial composition (corresponding to the composition right after deposition) to the aged composition (corresponding to the evolution of the initial composition over time). This complex system will additionally vary due to effects of numerous influence factors grouped in five different classes: the donor characteristics, the deposition conditions, the substrate nature, the environmental conditions and the applied enhancement techniques. The initial and aged compositions as well as the influence factors are thus considered in this article to provide a qualitative and quantitative review of all compounds identified in fingermark residue up to now. The analytical techniques used to obtain these data are also enumerated. This review highlights the fact that despite the numerous analytical processes that have already been proposed and tested to elucidate fingermark composition, advanced knowledge is still missing. Thus, there is a real need to conduct future research on the composition of fingermark residue, focusing particularly on quantitative measurements, aging kinetics and effects of influence factors. The results of future research are particularly important for advances in fingermark enhancement and dating technique developments.

Evénements traumatiques et réponses de stress: le rôle de l'ocytocine et de l'attachement [Traumatic events and stress responses: the role of oxytocin and attachement].

Being repeatedly confronted to very difficult situations since childhood influences the way indivuals will later respond to even mildly stressful events. The hypothalamic-pituitary-adrenal axis (HPA) is a complex system implicated in regulating neuroendocrine responses to stress. Its activation produces among others the <stress hormonea, cortisol. However, the regulation of the physiological response to stress depends on psychological factors linked with the representations that individuals develop regarding their close relationships i.e. attachment. Furthermore, attachment representations seem to be associated with oxytocin, a hormone involved both in cortisol reduction and in positive social behaviours.

Three essays on major trends in a slow clockspeed industry : the case of industrial automation

The motivation for this research initiated from the abrupt rise and fall of minicomputers which were initially used both for industrial automation and business applications due to their significantly lower cost than their predecessors, the mainframes. Later industrial automation developed its own vertically integrated hardware and software to address the application needs of uninterrupted operations, real-time control and resilience to harsh environmental conditions. This has led to the creation of an independent industry, namely industrial automation used in PLC, DCS, SCADA and robot control systems. This industry employs today over 200'000 people in a profitable slow clockspeed context in contrast to the two mainstream computing industries of information technology (IT) focused on business applications and telecommunications focused on communications networks and hand-held devices. Already in 1990s it was foreseen that IT and communication would merge into one Information and communication industry (ICT). The fundamental question of the thesis is: Could industrial automation leverage a common technology platform with the newly formed ICT industry? Computer systems dominated by complex instruction set computers (CISC) were challenged during 1990s with higher performance reduced instruction set computers (RISC). RISC started to evolve parallel to the constant advancement of Moore's law. These developments created the high performance and low energy consumption System-on-Chip architecture (SoC). Unlike to the CISC processors RISC processor architecture is a separate industry from the RISC chip manufacturing industry. It also has several hardware independent software platforms consisting of integrated operating system, development environment, user interface and application market which enables customers to have more choices due to hardware independent real time capable software applications. An architecture disruption merged and the smartphone and tablet market were formed with new rules and new key players in the ICT industry. Today there are more RISC computer systems running Linux (or other Unix variants) than any other computer system. The astonishing rise of SoC based technologies and related software platforms in smartphones created in unit terms the largest installed base ever seen in the history of computers and is now being further extended by tablets. An underlying additional element of this transition is the increasing role of open source technologies both in software and hardware. This has driven the microprocessor based personal computer industry with few dominating closed operating system platforms into a steep decline. A significant factor in this process has been the separation of processor architecture and processor chip production and operating systems and application development platforms merger into integrated software platforms with proprietary application markets. Furthermore the pay-by-click marketing has changed the way applications development is compensated: Three essays on major trends in a slow clockspeed industry: The case of industrial automation 2014 freeware, ad based or licensed - all at a lower price and used by a wider customer base than ever before. Moreover, the concept of software maintenance contract is very remote in the app world. However, as a slow clockspeed industry, industrial automation has remained intact during the disruptions based on SoC and related software platforms in the ICT industries. Industrial automation incumbents continue to supply systems based on vertically integrated systems consisting of proprietary software and proprietary mainly microprocessor based hardware. They enjoy admirable profitability levels on a very narrow customer base due to strong technology-enabled customer lock-in and customers' high risk leverage as their production is dependent on fault-free operation of the industrial automation systems. When will this balance of power be disrupted? The thesis suggests how industrial automation could join the mainstream ICT industry and create an information, communication and automation (ICAT) industry. Lately the Internet of Things (loT) and weightless networks, a new standard leveraging frequency channels earlier occupied by TV broadcasting, have gradually started to change the rigid world of Machine to Machine (M2M) interaction. It is foreseeable that enough momentum will be created that the industrial automation market will in due course face an architecture disruption empowered by these new trends. This thesis examines the current state of industrial automation subject to the competition between the incumbents firstly through a research on cost competitiveness efforts in captive outsourcing of engineering, research and development and secondly researching process re- engineering in the case of complex system global software support. Thirdly we investigate the industry actors', namely customers, incumbents and newcomers, views on the future direction of industrial automation and conclude with our assessments of the possible routes industrial automation could advance taking into account the looming rise of the Internet of Things (loT) and weightless networks. Industrial automation is an industry dominated by a handful of global players each of them focusing on maintaining their own proprietary solutions. The rise of de facto standards like IBM PC, Unix and Linux and SoC leveraged by IBM, Compaq, Dell, HP, ARM, Apple, Google, Samsung and others have created new markets of personal computers, smartphone and tablets and will eventually also impact industrial automation through game changing commoditization and related control point and business model changes. This trend will inevitably continue, but the transition to a commoditized industrial automation will not happen in the near future.

Impingement jet cooling of end windings in a high-speed electric machine

The rotational speed of high-speed electric machines is over 15 000 rpm. These machines are compact in size when compared to the power rate. As a consequence, the heat fluxes are at a high level and the adequacy of cooling becomes an important design criterion. In the high-speed machines, the air gap between the stator and rotor is a narrow flow channel. The cooling air is produced with a fan and the flow is then directed to the air gap. The flow in the gap does not provide sufficient cooling for the stator end windings, and therefore additional cooling is required. This study investigates the heat transfer and flow fields around the coil end windings when cooling jets are used. As a result, an innovative and new assembly is introduced for the cooling jets, with the benefits of a reduced amount of hot spots, a lower pressure drop, and hence a lower power need for the cooling fan. The gained information can also be applied to improve the cooling of electric machines through geometry modifications. The objective of the research is to determine the locations of the hot spots and to find out induced pressure losses with different jet alternatives. Several possibilities to arrange the extra cooling are considered. In the suggested approach cooling is provided by using a row of air jets. The air jets have three main tasks: to cool the coils effectively by direct impingement jets, to increase and cool down the flow that enters the coil end space through the air gap, and to ensure the correct distribution of the flow by forming an air curtain with additional jets. One important aim of this study is the arrangement of cooling jets in such manner that hot spots can be avoided to wide extent. This enables higher power density in high-speed motors. This cooling system can also be applied to the ordinary electric machines when efficient cooling is needed. The numerical calculations have been performed using a commercial Computational Fluid Dynamics software. Two geometries have been generated: cylindrical for the studied machine and Cartesian for the experimental model. The main parameters include the positions, arrangements and number of jets, the jet diameters, and the jet velocities. The investigated cases have been tested with two widely used turbulence models and using a computational grid of over 500 000 cells. The experimental tests have been made by using a simplified model for the end winding space with cooling jets. In the experiments, an emphasis has been given to flow visualisation. The computational analysis shows good agreement with the experimental results. Modelling of the cooling jet arrangement enables also a better understanding of the complex system of heat transfer at end winding space.

Yhdysliikennepisteen suunnittelu

Langattomien lähiverkkotekniikoiden yleistyessä langattomien verkkojen ja palveluiden kysyntä on kasvanut nopeasti. Varsinkin vuonna 1997 julkistettu IEEE:n 802.11b-standardi on mahdollistanut langattomien verkkotekniikoiden nopean kehityksen. Tässä työssä esitetään suunnitelma kahden verkon välisen rajapinnan rakenteesta ja to-teutuksesta. Rajapintaa kutsutaan yhdysliikennepisteeksi. Sen pääasiallisena tehtävänä on toimia solmupisteenä kaikelle verkkojen väliselle tietoliikenteelle ja hallinnoida niin sisäverkkoa käyttäjineen kuin ulkoverkon puolelle kytkettyjä operaattoreita. Yhdyslii-kennepisteen tehtävänä on tunnistaa sisäverkon käyttäjät, auktorisoida heidät yhteis-työssä operaattorien kanssa, huolehtia sisäverkon käyttäjien verkko-osoitteista ja toimia verkkoliikenteen välittäjänä. Yhdysliikennepiste kykenee reitittämään käyttäjän oikealle operaattorille ja huolehtii siitä, että käyttäjällä on pääsy palveluihin, joiden käyttämiseen tällä on valtuutus. Työssä määritellään yhdysliikennepisteen rajapinnat sekä siihen liitettäviä operaattoreita että sisäverkkoon tarjottavia peruspalveluita varten. Lisäksi määritellään yhdysliikenne-pisteen sisäiset rajapinnat. Yhdysliikennepiste ei rajoita käytettyä verkkotekniikkaa, mutta tässä työssä keskitytään IEEE 802.11b -standardin mukaisiin WLAN-verkkoihin. Yhden tai useamman operaattorin verkkoja on olemassa sekä langallisessa että langat-tomissa ympäristöissä. Näissä verkoissa jokainen Internet-operaattori huolehtii kuiten-kin vain omista asiakkaistaan. Sisäverkko on suljettu, siihen pääsevät liittymään vain operaattorin omat asiakkaat. Työn tuloksena syntynyt yhdysliikennepiste on ratkaisu, jonka avulla voidaan rakentaa monioperaattorialueverkko, joka on avoin kaikille sen käyttäjille.

Infrastructure Provisioning in Web Portals

Web portaalit tarjoavat ainutlaatuisia apuvälineitä erilaisien sisältöjen luomiseksi, monenlaisia navigointipolkuja, henkilökohtaisia sivuja ja turvapalveluja. Portaali on monimutkainen systeemi, joka sisältää monta yhteistyötä tekevää komponenttia, yleensä toteutuu valmiiksi tehdyillä ongelmistoilla. Tämä tutkimus kansittelee portaalin toteutusta IBM/Tivolin tuotteella. Portaalin komponenttien integraatio on kriittinen koko järjestelmä arkkitehtuurille ja saattaa vaatia lisää ohjelmistokehittelyä. Tutkimuksen ensisijainen tavoite on kehittää räätälöityä komponenttia kahta portaali-alijärjestelmä varten, tilaaja - turvapalvelu. Tutkimuksessa Tivoli Personalized Services Manager (TPSM) ja Tivoli SecureWay Policy Director (PD) on tutkittu. Integraatio sisältää TPSM tietokaunan ja PD User Registry tiedon synkronisointia. Integraatio-ohjelmisto on suunniteltu ja tehty olemassaoloevien alijärjestelmien perusteella.

Understanding the complexity in low dimensional systems

Complex System is any system that presents involved behavior, and is hard to be modeled by using the reductionist approach of successive subdivision, searching for ''elementary'' constituents. Nature provides us with plenty of examples of these systems, in fields as diverse as biology, chemistry, geology, physics, and fluid mechanics, and engineering. What happens, in general, is that for these systems we have a situation where a large number of both attracting and unstable chaotic sets coexist. As a result, we can have a rich and varied dynamical behavior, where many competing behaviors coexist. In this work, we present and discuss simple mechanical systems that are nice paradigms of Complex System, when they are subjected to random external noise. We argue that systems with few degrees of freedom can present the same complex behavior under quite general conditions.

Future at risk: A study on the Club of Rome

Sustainability, in its modern meaning, has been discussed for more than forty years. However, many experts believe that humanity is still far from being sustainable. Some experts have argued that humanity should seek survivable development because it is too late for sustainable one, since 1990s. Obviously, some problems prevented humanity from becoming sustainable. This thesis focuses on the agenda of sustainability discussions and seeks for the essential topics missing from it. For this purpose, the research is conducted on 21 out of 33 books endorsed by the Club of Rome. All of these books are titled ‘a report to the Club of Rome’. The Club of Rome is an organization that has been constantly working on the problems of humankind for the past 40 years. This thesis has three main components: first, the messages of the reports to the Club of Rome, second, academics perceptions of the Club, and third, the Club member perceptions of its evolution, messages and missing topics. This thesis investigates the evolution of four aspects in the reports. The first one is the agenda of the reports. The second one is the basic approaches of the Club (i.e., global, long-term and holistic). The third one is the ways that the reports treat free market and growth ideology. The fourth one is the approach of the reports toward components of the global complex system (i.e., society, economy and politics). The outline of the thesis is as follows. First, the original reports are briefly summarized. After this, the academic perceptions are discussed and structured around three concepts (i.e., futures studies, sustainability and degrowth). In the final step, the perceptions of the experts are collected and analysed, using a variation of Delphi method, called ‘in-depth interviews’, and ‘quality content analysis’ method. This thesis is useful for those interested in sustainability, global problems, and the Club of Rome. This thesis concludes that the reports from 1972 up to 1980 were cohesive in discussing topics related to the problems of humankind. The topics of the reports are fragmented after this period. The basic approaches of CoR are visible in all the reports. However, after 1980, those approaches and especially holistic thinking are only visible in the background. Regarding the free market and growth ideology, although all the reports are against them, the early reports were more explicitly expressing their disagreement. A milestone is noticeable around 1980 when such objections went completely to the background. However, recent reports are more similar to those of 1970s both in adopting a holistic approach and in explicitly criticizing free market and growth ideology. Finally, concerning the components of global complex system, the society is excluded and the focus of the reports is on politics, economy and their relation. Concerning the topics missing from the debate, this thesis concludes that no major research has been conducted on the fundamental and underlying reasons of the problems (e.g. beliefs, values and culture). Studying the problems without considering their underlying reasons, obviously, leads to superficial and ineffective solutions. This might be one of the reasons that sustainability discussions have as yet led to no concrete result.