The European Flood Alert System and the communication, perception, and use of ensemble predictions for operational flood risk management

Although ensemble prediction systems (EPS) are increasingly promoted as the scientific state-of-the-art for operational flood forecasting, the communication, perception, and use of the resulting alerts have received much less attention. Using a variety of qualitative research methods, including direct user feedback at training workshops, participant observation during site visits to 25 forecasting centres across Europe, and in-depth interviews with 69 forecasters, civil protection officials, and policy makers involved in operational flood risk management in 17 European countries, this article discusses the perception, communication, and use of European Flood Alert System (EFAS) alerts in operational flood management. In particular, this article describes how the design of EFAS alerts has evolved in response to user feedback and desires for a hydrographic-like way of visualizing EFAS outputs. It also documents a variety of forecaster perceptions about the value and skill of EFAS forecasts and the best way of using them to inform operational decision making. EFAS flood alerts were generally welcomed by flood forecasters as a sort of ‘pre-alert’ to spur greater internal vigilance. In most cases, however, they did not lead, by themselves, to further preparatory action or to earlier warnings to the public or emergency services. Their hesitancy to act in response to medium-term, probabilistic alerts highlights some wider institutional obstacles to the hopes in the research community that EPS will be readily embraced by operational forecasters and lead to immediate improvements in flood incident management. The EFAS experience offers lessons for other hydrological services seeking to implement EPS operationally for flood forecasting and warning. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Information communication technologies and distance education in Sri Lanka: a case study of two universities

Sri Lanka's participation rates in higher education are low and have risen only slightly in the last few decades; the number of places for higher education in the state university system only caters for around 3% of the university entrant age cohort. The literature reveals that the highly competitive global knowledge economy increasingly favours workers with high levels of education who are also lifelong learners. This lack of access to higher education for a sizable proportion of the labour force is identified as a severe impediment to Sri Lanka‟s competitiveness in the global knowledge economy. The literature also suggests that Information and Communication Technologies are increasingly relied upon in many contexts in order to deliver flexible learning, to cater especially for the needs of lifelong learners in today‟s higher educational landscape. The government of Sri Lanka invested heavily in ICTs for distance education during the period 2003-2009 in a bid to increase access to higher education; but there has been little research into the impact of this. To address this lack, this study investigated the impact of ICTs on distance education in Sri Lanka with respect to increasing access to higher education. In order to achieve this aim, the research focused on Sri Lanka‟s effort from three perspectives: policy perspective, implementation perspective and user perspective. A multiple case study research using an ethnographic approach was conducted to observe Orange Valley University‟s and Yellow Fields University‟s (pseudonymous) implementation of distance education programmes using questionnaires, qualitative interviewing and document analysis. In total, data for the analysis was collected from 129 questionnaires, 33 individual interviews and 2 group interviews. The research revealed that ICTs have indeed increased opportunities for higher education; but mainly for people of affluent families from the Western Province. Issues identified were categorized under the themes: quality assurance, location, language, digital literacies and access to resources. Recommendations were offered to tackle the identified issues in accordance with the study findings. The study also revealed the strong presence of a multifaceted digital divide in the country. In conclusion, this research has shown that iii although ICT-enabled distance education has the potential to increase access to higher education the present implementation of the system in Sri Lanka has been less than successful.

Two-way communication costs and the boundaries of the firm

Casson and Wadeson (International Journal of the Economics of Business, 1998, 5, pp. 5-27) have modelled the dialogue, or conversation, which customers have with their suppliers in order to convey their requirements, while taking production implications into account. They showed that this has important implications for the positioning of the boundaries of the firm. Unfortunately, their model has the restriction that communication is only costly in the direction of customer to supplier. This paper extends their model by introducing two-way communication costs. It shows that the level of communication cost in the direction of supplier to customer is a key additional factor in determining the nature of the dialogue that takes place. It also shows that this has important additional implications for the positioning of the boundaries of the firm. Custom computer software development is used as an example of an application of the theory.

Communication costs and the boundaries of the firm

Much has been written about where the boundaries of the firm are drawn, but little about what occurs at the boundaries themselves. When a firm subcontracts, does it inform its suppliers fully of what it requires, or is it willing to accept what they have available? In practice firms often engage in a dialogue, or conversation, with their suppliers, in which at first they set out their general requirements, and only when the supplier reports back on how these can be met are their more specific requirements set out. This paper models such conversations as a rational response to communication costs. The model is used to examine the impact of new information technology, such as CAD/CAM, on the conduct of subcontracting. It can also be used to examine its impact on the marketing activities of firms. The technique of analysis, which is based on the economic theory of teams, has more general applications too. It can be used to model all the forms of dialogue involved in the processes of coordination both within and between firms.

Chemical communication, aggression, and conspecific recognition in the fish Nile tilapia

The chemical modulation of agonistic behavior and conspecific recognition were tested in juveniles of the fish Nile tilapia, Oreochromis niloticus (L.). After a 7-day isolation period, the fish were grouped (four individuals per aquarium) for 7 days. Then fish of alpha and beta ranks (previously matched for similar size) were paired in a neutral territory for analysis of their agonistic interaction. Pairs composed of alpha and beta fish were established with either fish from the same group (familiar) or from two different groups (unfamiliar). The pairs were tested in contiguous compartments, either with water exchange between the compartments or in the absence of water exchange. In each condition the fish were separated by a transparent glass partition. Twelve pairs were tested in each experimental condition. Fish behavior was videotaped and the following variables were analyzed: (a) frequency of and time spent in agonistic patterns, (b) latency to start fighting, and (c) duration of swimming. Water exchange between compartments decreased agonistic interactions. This effect, however, was more pronounced in pairs of fish coming from the same group (in this case, subordinate fish spent less time in confrontations than dominant ones). We conclude that chemical communication decreases aggression in this species by (1) inducing an alarm reaction and (2) increasing conspecific recognition (thus stabilizing the dominance hierarchy). (C) 1997 Elsevier B.V.

Communication strategy and migration policy; an exploratory literature survey pertaining to the Latin American situation

Includes bibliography

Discrimination of media moments and media intervals: sticker-based watch-and-comment annotation

In this paper we discuss the problem of how to discriminate moments of interest on videos or live broadcast shows. The primary contribution is a system which allows users to personalize their programs with previously created media stickers-pieces of content that may be temporarily attached to the original video. We present the system's architecture and implementation, which offer users operators to transparently annotate videos while watching them. We offered a soccer fan the opportunity to add stickers to the video while watching a live match: the user reported both enjoying and being comfortable using the stickers during the match-relevant results even though the experience was not fully representative.

Design and Performance Evaluation of Network-on-Chip Communication Protocols and Architectures

The scale down of transistor technology allows microelectronics manufacturers such as Intel and IBM to build always more sophisticated systems on a single microchip. The classical interconnection solutions based on shared buses or direct connections between the modules of the chip are becoming obsolete as they struggle to sustain the increasing tight bandwidth and latency constraints that these systems demand. The most promising solution for the future chip interconnects are the Networks on Chip (NoC). NoCs are network composed by routers and channels used to inter- connect the different components installed on the single microchip. Examples of advanced processors based on NoC interconnects are the IBM Cell processor, composed by eight CPUs that is installed on the Sony Playstation III and the Intel Teraflops pro ject composed by 80 independent (simple) microprocessors. On chip integration is becoming popular not only in the Chip Multi Processor (CMP) research area but also in the wider and more heterogeneous world of Systems on Chip (SoC). SoC comprehend all the electronic devices that surround us such as cell-phones, smart-phones, house embedded systems, automotive systems, set-top boxes etc... SoC manufacturers such as ST Microelectronics , Samsung, Philips and also Universities such as Bologna University, M.I.T., Berkeley and more are all proposing proprietary frameworks based on NoC interconnects. These frameworks help engineers in the switch of design methodology and speed up the development of new NoC-based systems on chip. In this Thesis we propose an introduction of CMP and SoC interconnection networks. Then focusing on SoC systems we propose: • a detailed analysis based on simulation of the Spidergon NoC, a ST Microelectronics solution for SoC interconnects. The Spidergon NoC differs from many classical solutions inherited from the parallel computing world. Here we propose a detailed analysis of this NoC topology and routing algorithms. Furthermore we propose aEqualized a new routing algorithm designed to optimize the use of the resources of the network while also increasing its performance; • a methodology flow based on modified publicly available tools that combined can be used to design, model and analyze any kind of System on Chip; • a detailed analysis of a ST Microelectronics-proprietary transport-level protocol that the author of this Thesis helped developing; • a simulation-based comprehensive comparison of different network interface designs proposed by the author and the researchers at AST lab, in order to integrate shared-memory and message-passing based components on a single System on Chip; • a powerful and flexible solution to address the time closure exception issue in the design of synchronous Networks on Chip. Our solution is based on relay stations repeaters and allows to reduce the power and area demands of NoC interconnects while also reducing its buffer needs; • a solution to simplify the design of the NoC by also increasing their performance and reducing their power and area consumption. We propose to replace complex and slow virtual channel-based routers with multiple and flexible small Multi Plane ones. This solution allows us to reduce the area and power dissipation of any NoC while also increasing its performance especially when the resources are reduced. This Thesis has been written in collaboration with the Advanced System Technology laboratory in Grenoble France, and the Computer Science Department at Columbia University in the city of New York.

An Input-Process-Output Approach to Interorganizational Teams: The Influence of Work Group Diversity, Trust and Shared Leadership on Communication Network and Team Outputs.

The market’s challenges bring firms to collaborate with other organizations in order to create Joint Ventures, Alliances and Consortia that are defined as “Interorganizational Networks” (IONs) (Provan, Fish and Sydow; 2007). Some of these IONs are managed through a shared partecipant governance (Provan and Kenis, 2008): a team composed by entrepreneurs and/or directors of each firm of an ION. The research is focused on these kind of management teams and it is based on an input-process-output model: some input variables (work group’s diversity, intra-team's friendship network density) have a direct influence on the process (team identification, shared leadership, interorganizational trust, team trust and intra-team's communication network density), which influence some team outputs, individual innovation behaviors and team effectiveness (team performance, work group satisfaction and ION affective commitment). Data was collected on a sample of 101 entrepreneurs grouped in 28 ION’s government teams and the research hypotheses are tested trough the path analysis and the multilevel models. As expected trust in team and shared leadership are positively and directly related to team effectiveness while team identification and interorganizational trust are indirectly related to the team outputs. The friendship network density among the team’s members has got positive effects on the trust in team and on the communication network density, and also, through the communication network density it improves the level of the teammates ION affective commitment. The shared leadership and its effects on the team effectiveness are fostered from higher level of team identification and weakened from higher level of work group diversity, specifically gender diversity. Finally, the communication network density and shared leadership at the individual level are related to the frequency of individual innovative behaviors. The dissertation’s results give a wider and more precise indication about the management of interfirm network through “shared” form of governance.

Brain-Computer Interfaces for augmented communication: Asynchronous and adaptive algorithms and evaluation with end users

This thesis aimed at addressing some of the issues that, at the state of the art, avoid the P300-based brain computer interface (BCI) systems to move from research laboratories to end users’ home. An innovative asynchronous classifier has been defined and validated. It relies on the introduction of a set of thresholds in the classifier, and such thresholds have been assessed considering the distributions of score values relating to target, non-target stimuli and epochs of voluntary no-control. With the asynchronous classifier, a P300-based BCI system can adapt its speed to the current state of the user and can automatically suspend the control when the user diverts his attention from the stimulation interface. Since EEG signals are non-stationary and show inherent variability, in order to make long-term use of BCI possible, it is important to track changes in ongoing EEG activity and to adapt BCI model parameters accordingly. To this aim, the asynchronous classifier has been subsequently improved by introducing a self-calibration algorithm for the continuous and unsupervised recalibration of the subjective control parameters. Finally an index for the online monitoring of the EEG quality has been defined and validated in order to detect potential problems and system failures. This thesis ends with the description of a translational work involving end users (people with amyotrophic lateral sclerosis-ALS). Focusing on the concepts of the user centered design approach, the phases relating to the design, the development and the validation of an innovative assistive device have been described. The proposed assistive technology (AT) has been specifically designed to meet the needs of people with ALS during the different phases of the disease (i.e. the degree of motor abilities impairment). Indeed, the AT can be accessed with several input devices either conventional (mouse, touchscreen) or alterative (switches, headtracker) up to a P300-based BCI.

Social skills as predictors of communication, performance and quality of collaboration in project-based learning

The assumption that social skills are necessary ingredients of collaborative learning is well established but rarely empirically tested. In addition, most theories on collaborative learning focus on social skills only at the personal level, while the social skill configurations within a learning group might be of equal importance. Using the integrative framework, this study investigates which social skills at the personal level and at the group level are predictive of task-related e-mail communication, satisfaction with performance and perceived quality of collaboration. Data collection took place in a technology-enhanced long-term project-based learning setting for pre-service teachers. For data collection, two questionnaires were used, one at the beginning and one at the end of the learning cycle which lasted 3 months. During the project phase, the e-mail communication between group members was captured as well. The investigation of 60 project groups (N = 155 for the questionnaires; group size: two or three students) and 33 groups for the e-mail communication (N = 83) revealed that personal social skills played only a minor role compared to group level configurations of social skills in predicting satisfaction with performance, perceived quality of collaboration and communication behaviour. Members from groups that showed a high and/or homogeneous configuration of specific social skills (e.g., cooperation/compromising, leadership) usually were more satisfied and saw their group as more efficient than members from groups with a low and/or heterogeneous configuration of skills.

In Search of Political Influence: Strategic Choices and Media Coverage of Political Parties, Interest Groups and Social Movements in Western European Countries

Outside lobbying is a key strategy for social movements, interest groups and political parties for mobilising public opinion through the media in order to pressure policymakers and influence the policymaking process. Relying on semi-structured interviews and newspaper content analysis in six Western European countries, this article examines the use of four outside lobbying strategies – media-related activities, informing (about) the public, mobilisation and protest – and the amount of media coverage they attract. While some strategies are systematically less pursued than others, we find variation in their relative share across institutional contexts and actor types. Given that most of these differences are not accurately mirrored in the media, we conclude that media coverage is only loosely connected to outside lobbying behaviour, and that the media respond differently to a given strategy when used by different actors. Thus, the ability of different outside lobbying strategies to generate media coverage critically depends on who makes use of them.