An assessment of the economic impact of climate change on the coastal and human settlements, tourism and transport sectors in Barbados

This report analyses the coastal and human settlements, tourism and transport sectors in Barbados to assess the potential economic impact of climate change on the sectors. The fundamental aim of this report is to assist with the development of strategies to deal with the potential impact of climate change on Barbados. Some of the key anticipated manifestations of climate change for the Caribbean include elevated air and sea-surface temperatures, sea-level rise, possible changes in extreme events and a reduction in freshwater resources. The economic impact of climate change on the three sectors was estimated for the A2 and B2 IPCC scenarios until 2050 (tourism and transport sectors) and 2100 (coastal and human settlements sector). An exploration of various adaptation strategies was also undertaken for each sector using standard evaluation techniques. The analysis has shown that based upon exposed assets and population, SLR can be classified as having the potential to create potential catastrophe in Barbados. The main contributing factor is the concentration of socioeconomic infrastructure along the coastline in vulnerable areas. The A2 and B2 projections have indicated that the number of catastrophes that can be classified as great is likely to be increased for the country. This is based upon the possible effects of the projected unscheduled impacts to the economy both in terms of loss of life and economic infrastructure. These results arise from the A2 and B2 projections, thereby indicating that growth in numbers and losses are largely due to socioeconomic changes over the projection period and hence the need for increased adaptation strategies. A key adaptation measure recommended is for the government of Barbados to begin reducing the infrastructure deficit by continuously investing in protective infrastructure to decrease the country’s vulnerability to changes in the climate. With regard to the tourism sector, it was found that by combining the impacts due to a reduction in tourist arrivals, coral reef loss and SLR, estimated total economic impact of climate change is US $7,648 million (A2 scenario) and US $5,127 million (B2 scenario). An economic analysis of the benefits and costs of several adaptation options was undertaken to determine the cost effectiveness of each one and it was found that four (4) out of nine (9) options had high cost-benefit ratios. It is therefore recommended that the strategies that were most attractive in terms of the cost-benefit ratios be pursued first and these were: (1) enhanced reef monitoring systems to provide early warning alerts of bleaching events; (2) artificial reefs or fish-aggregating devices; (3) development of national adaptation plans (levee, sea wall and boardwalk); (4) revision of policies related to financing carbon neutral tourism; and (5) increasing recommended design wind speeds for new tourism-related structures. The total cost of climate change on international transportation in Barbados aggregated the impacts of changes in temperature and precipitation, new climate policies and SLR. The impact for air transportation ranges from US$10,727 million (B2 scenario) to US$12,279 million (A2 scenario) and for maritime transportation impact estimates range from US$1,992 million (B2 scenario) to US$2,606 million (A2 scenario). For international transportation as a whole, the impact of climate change varies from US$12,719 million under the B2 scenario to US$14,885 million under the A2 scenario. Barbados has the institutions set up to implement adaptive strategies to strengthen the resilience of the existing international transportation system to climate change impacts. Air and sea terminals and facilities can be made more robust, raised, or even relocated as need be, and where critical to safety and mobility, expanded redundant systems may be considered.

An assessment of the economic impact of climate change on the coastal and marine sector in the British Virgin Islands

Owing to their high vulnerability and low adaptive capacity, Caribbean islands have legitimate concerns about their future, based on observational records, experience with current patterns and consequences of climate variability, and climate model projections. Although emitting less than 1% of global greenhouse gases, islands from the region have already perceived a need to reallocate scarce resources away from economic development and poverty reduction, and towards the implementation of strategies to adapt to the growing threats posed by global warming (Nurse and Moore, 2005). The objectives of this Report are to conduct economic analyses of the projected impacts of climate change to 2050, within the context of the IPCC A2 and B2 scenarios, on the coastal and marine resources of the British Virgin Islands (BVI). The Report presents a valuation of coastal and marine services; quantitative and qualitative estimates of climate change impacts on the coastal zone; and recommendations of possible adaptation strategies and costs and benefits of adaptation. A multi-pronged approach is employed in valuing the marine and coastal sector. Direct use and indirect use values are estimated. The amount of economic activity an ecosystem service generates in the local economy underpins estimation of direct use values. Tourism and fisheries are valued using the framework developed by the World Resources Institute. Biodiversity is valued in terms of the ecological functions it provides, such as climate regulation, shoreline protection, water supply erosion control and sediment retention, and biological control, among others. Estimates of future losses to the coastal zone from climate change are determined by considering: (1) the effect of sea level rise on coastal lands; and (2) the effect of a rise in sea surface temperature (SST) on coastal waters. Discount rates of 1%, 2% and 4% are employed to analyse all loss estimates in present value terms. The overall value for the coastal and marine sector is USD $1,606 million (mn). This is almost 2% larger than BVI’s 2008 GDP. Tourism and recreation comprise almost two-thirds of the value of the sector. By 2100, the effects of climate change on coastal lands are projected to be $3,988.6 mn, and $2,832.9 mn under the A2 and B2 scenarios respectively. In present value terms, if A2 occurs, losses range from $108.1-$1,596.8 mn and if B2 occurs, losses range from $74.1-$1,094.1 mn, depending on the discount rate used. Estimated costs of a rise in SST in 2050 indicate that they vary between $1,178.0 and $1,884.8 mn. Assuming a discount rate of 4%, losses range from $226.6 mn for the B2 scenario to $363.0 mn for the A2 scenario. If a discount rate of 1% is assumed, estimated losses are much greater, ranging from $775.6-$1,241.0 mn. Factoring in projected climate change impacts, the net value of the coastal and marine sector suggests that the costs of climate change significantly reduce the value of the sector, particularly under the A2 and B2 climate change scenarios for discount rates of 1% and 2%. In contrast, the sector has a large, positive, though declining trajectory, for all years when a 4% discount rate is employed. Since the BVI emits minimal greenhouse gases, but will be greatly affected by climate change, the report focuses on adaptation as opposed to mitigation strategies. The options shortlisted are: (1) enhancing monitoring of all coastal waters to provide early warning alerts of bleaching and other marine events; (2) introducing artificial reefs or fish-aggregating devices; (3) introducing alternative tourist attractions; (4) providing retraining for displaced tourism workers; and (5) revising policies related to financing national tourism offices to accommodate the new climatic realities. All adaptation options considered are quite justifiable in national terms; each had benefit-cost ratios greater than 1.

Genetic differentiation of Macrodon ancylodon (Sciaenidae, Perciformes) populations in Atlantic coastal waters of South America as revealed by mtDNA analysis

The king weakfish (pescada-gó in Portuguese - Macrodon ancylodon (Sciaenidae), a demersal (bottom-feeding) species found in South America Atlantic coastal waters from the Gulf of Paria in Venezuela to Baia Blanca in Argentina, is an economically important species because of its abundance and wide acceptance by consumers. Because of its wide distribution this fish may be subject to geographic isolation and this may have resulted in distinct populations along its coastal range. Considering that this species represents an important economic resource, confirmation of whether M. ancylodon is a single species or there are different genetic stocks spread over its wide distribution would be an important contribution to conservation policies and population management of the king weakfish. To investigate differences between king weakfish populations we used the cytochrome b and 16S rRNA genes to characterize M. ancylodon specimens caught throughout its South American range from Venezuela to Argentina. Our results clearly distinguished two genetically different groups which show nucleotide divergence and genetic structuring patterns that strongly suggest they may be different species, disagreeing with the widely accepted traditional taxonomy that accepts only one species of Macrodon in the western Atlantic.

Ecomorphological patterns of the fishes inhabiting the tide pools of the Amazonian Coastal Zone, Brazil

Identificamos padrões ecomorfológicos que refletem a ecologia de espécies encontradas em poças de maré na Zona Costeira Amazônica (ZCA). Indivíduos de 19 espécies foram coletados no estado do Pará durante duas expedições em 2011. Foram estabelecidas dominância, grau de residência, guildas tróficas e tomadas medidas morfométricas de até 10 indivíduos de cada espécie. Calculou-se 23 atributos ecomorfológicos relacionados à locomoção, posição e forrageio, utilizados para o cálculo da distância ecomorfológica. Foram utilizadas Análises de Componentes Principais (PCA) para avaliar que atributos ecomorfológicos explicaram a variação entre as espécies. O teste de Mantel foi utilizado para testar a correlação da distância taxonômica com a morfologia das espécies e um teste de Mantel parcial para avaliar a correlação das guildas tróficas com os padrões ecomorfológicos, controlando-se o efeito da distância taxonômica entre as espécies. Nas análises formaram-se dois eixos principais para variação em relação aos padrões de locomoção, correlacionados à largura do pedúnculo caudal e formato da nadadeira anal, ocorrendo influência da distância taxonômica entre as espécies nos padrões ecomorfológicos. Espécies dominantes e residentes apresentaram menor capacidade de natação contínua. Quanto à posição na coluna d'água, formaram-se dois eixos principais da variação, correlacionados à posição do olho, área da nadadeira pélvica e formato do corpo, ocorrendo influência da distância taxônomica entre as espécies nas dissimilaridades morfológicas. A PCA agrupou espécies de hábito pelágico com espécies de hábito bentônico. Em relação ao forrageio, formaram-se dois eixos principais da variação, correlacionados ao tamanho da boca, tamanho do olho e comprimento do trato digestório. Espécies de diferentes guildas permaneceram agrupadas, sugerindo fraca relação da morfologia com o forrageio e não houve influência da distância taxonômica nas dissimilaridades nas guildas tróficas. Espécies residentes e dominantes em poças de maré na ZCA apresentam hábito sedentário, ocorrendo pouca influência da distância taxonômica nos padrões ecomorfológicos que se referem à posição na coluna d'água e locomoção, demonstrando que espécies distantes filogeneticamente podem apresentar padrões ecomorfológicos similares, e a morfologia demonstrou-se como fraca preditora das táticas de forrageio.

Feeding and reproductive dynamics of the damselfish, Stegastes fuscus in the coastal reefs of northeastern Brazil

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Vibrio cholerae O1 detection in estuarine and coastal zooplankton

Vibrio cholerae is an autochthonous marine bacterium, and its association with diverse planktonic crustaceans has been extensively investigated; however, the presence of V. cholerae on individuals of most phyla of planktonic animals is still incompletely understood. The objective of this study was to analyze the distribution of V. cholerae serogroup O1 associated with specific zooplankton taxa in an estuary and the adjacent continental shelf of the southeastern Brazilian coast. The occurrence of the bacterium was assessed in zooplankton samples, specifically on the most abundant taxa, using direct fluorescence assay (DFA) and direct viable count-direct fluorescence assay (DVC-DFA) methods. Vibrio cholerae O1 was detected in 88% of samples collected from the Santos-Bertioga estuary and in 67% of samples from the shelf. The salinity of the estuarine water ranged from 21.8 to 34.6, significantly lower than the shelf water which was 32.1-36.1. Salinity was the only environmental variable measured that displayed a significant correlation with the presence of V. cholerae (P < 0.05). Vibrio cholerae O1 was detected in chaetognaths, pluteus larvae of echinoderms and planktonic fish eggs (Engraulidae), all new sites for this bacterium.

Mercury and Nitrogen Isotope in a Marine Species from a Tropical Coastal Food Web

The present study raised the hypothesis that the trophic status in a tropical coastal food web from southeastern Brazil can be measured by the relation between total mercury (THg) and nitrogen isotope (delta(15)N) in their components. The analysed species were grouped into six trophic positions: primary producer (phytoplankton), primary consumer (zooplankton), consumer 1 (omnivore shrimp), consumer 2 (pelagic carnivores represented by squid and fish species), consumer 3 (demersal carnivores represented by fish species) and consumer 4 (pelagic-demersal top carnivore represented by the fish Trichiurus lepturus). The values of THg, delta(15)N, and trophic level (TLv) increased significantly from primary producer toward top carnivore. Our data regarding trophic magnification (6.84) and biomagnification powers (0.25 for delta(15)N and 0.83 for TLv) indicated that Hg biomagnification throughout trophic positions is high in this tropical food web, which could be primarily related to the quality of the local water.

Effects of habitat characteristics on cryptic fish assemblages

Habitat structure is known to influence the abundance of fishes on temperate reefs. Biotic interactions play a major role in determining the distribution and abundance of species. The significance of these forces in affecting the abundance of fishes may hinge on the presence of organisms that either create or alter habitat. On temperate reefs, for example, macroalgae are considered autogenic ecosystem engineers because they control resource availability to other species through their physical structure and provide much of the structure used by fish. On both coral and temperate reefs, small cryptic reef fishes may comprise up to half of the fish numbers and constitute a diverse community containing many specialized species. Small cryptic fishes (<100 mm total length) may be responsible for the passage of 57% of the energy flow and constitute ca. 35% of the overall reef fish biomass on coral reefs. These benthic fish exploit restricted habitats where food and shelter are obtained in, or in relation to, conditions of substrate complexity and/or restricted living space. A range of mechanisms has been proposed to account for the diversity and the abundance of small fishes: (1) lifehistory strategies that promote short generation times, (2) habitat associations and behaviour that reduce predation and (3) resource partitioning that allows small species to coexist with larger competitors. Despite their abundance and potential importance within reef systems, little is known of the community ecology of cryptic fishes. Specifically on habitat associations many theories suggested a not clear direction on this subject. My research contributes to the development of marine fish ecology by addressing the effects of habitat characteristics upon distribution of cryptobenthic fish assemblages. My focus was on the important shallow, coastal ecosystems that often serve as nursery habitat for many fish and where different type of habitat is likely to both play important roles in organism distribution and survival. My research included three related studies: (1) identification of structuring forces on cryptic fish assemblages, such as physical and biological forcing; (2) macroalgae as potential tools for cryptic fish and identification of different habitat feature that could explain cryptic fish assemblages distribution; (3) canopy formers loss: consequences on cryptic fish and relationship with benthos modifications. I found that: (1) cryptic fish assemblages differ between landward and seaward sides of coastal breakwaters in Adriatic Sea. These differences are explained by 50% of the habitat characteristics on two sides, mainly due to presence of the Codium fragile, sand and oyster assemblages. Microhabitat structure influence cryptic fish assemblages. (2) Different habitat support different cryptic fish assemblages. High heterogeneity on benthic assemblages reflect different fish assemblages. Biogenic components that explain different and diverse cryptic fish assemblages are: anemonia bed, mussel bed, macroalgal stands and Cystoseira barbata, as canopy formers. (3) Canopy forming loss is not relevant in structuring directly cryptic fish assemblages. A removal of canopy forming algae did not affect the structure of cryptic fish assemblages. Canopy formers algae on Conero cliff, does not seem to act as structuring force, probably due to its regressive status. In conclusion, cryptic fish have been shown to have species-specific associations with habitat features relating to the biological and non biological components afforded by fish. Canopy formers algae do not explain cryptic fish assemblages distribution and the results of this study and information from the literature (both from the Mediterranean Sea and elsewhere) show that there are no univocal responses of fish assemblages. Further exanimations on an non regressive status of Cystoseira canopy habitat are needed to define and evaluate the relationship between canopy formers and fish on Mediterranean sea.

Harmful algae and their potential impacts on the coastal ecosystem: growth and toxin production dynamics

The main goal of the present thesis was to study some harmful algal species which cause blooms in Italian coastal waters, leading to consequences for human health, coastal ecosystem, fishery and tourism. In particular, in the first part of this thesis the toxicity of Adriatic strains of the raphidophyte Fibrocapsa japonica was investigated. Despite several hypotheses have been proposed for the toxic mechanism of the raphidophytes, especially for the species Chattonella antiqua and C. marina, which have been studied more extensively, just a few studies on the toxic effects of these species for different organisms were reported. Moreover, a careful reading of the literature evidenced as any ichthyotoxic events reported worldwide can be linked to F. japonica blooms. Although recently several studies were performed on F. japonica strains from the USA, Japan, Australia, New Zealand, the Netherlands, Germany, and France in order to characterize their growth and toxicity features, the work reported in this thesis results one of the first investigation on the toxic effects of F. japonica for different organisms, such as bacteria, crustaceans and fish. Mortality effects, together with haemolysis of fish erythrocytes, probably due to the relatively high amount of PUFAs produced by this species, were observed. Mortality for fish, however, was reported only at a high cell density and after a long exposition period (9-10 days); moreover a significant increase of H2O2 obtained in the tanks where sea basses were exposed to F. japonica was also relevant. This result may justify the absence of ichthyotoxic events in the Italian coasts, despite F. japonica blooms detected in these areas were characterized by high cell densities. This work reports also a first complete characterization of the fatty acids produced and extracellularly released by the Adriatic F. japonica, and results were also compared with the fatty acid profile of other strains. The absence of known brevetoxins in F. japonica algal extracts was also highlighted, leading to the hypothesis that the toxicity of F. japonica may be due to a synergic effect of PUFAs and ROS. Another microalgae that was studied in this thesis is the benthic dinoflagellate Ostreopsis cf. ovata. This species was investigated with the aim to investigate the effect of environmental parameters on its growth and toxicity. O. cf. ovata, in fact, shows different blooming periods along the Italian coasts and even the reported toxic effects are variable. The results of this work confirmed the high variability in the growth dynamic and toxin content of several Italian strains which were isolated in recent years along the Adriatic and Tyrrhenian Seas. Moreover, the effects of temperature and salinity on the behaviour of the different isolates are in good agreement with the results obtained from field surveys, which evidence as the environmental parameters are important factors modulating O. cf. ovata proliferation. Another relevant result that was highlighted is the anomaly in the production of palytoxin-like compounds reported by one of the studied isolate, in particular the one isolated in 2008 in Ancona (Adriatic Sea). Only this strain reported the absence of two (ovatoxin-b and –c) of the five ovatoxins so far known in the toxin profile and a different relative abundance of the other toxins. The last aspect that was studied in this thesis regards the toxin biosythesis. In fact, toxins produced (palytoxin-like compounds) or supposed to be produced (brevetoxin-like compounds) by O. cf. ovata and F. japonica, respectively, are polyketides, which are highly oxygenated compounds synthesized by complex enzymes known as polyketide synthase (PKS) enzymes. These enzymes are multi-domain complexes that structurally and functionally resemble the fatty acid synthases (FASs). This work reports the first study of PKS proteins in the dinoflagellates O. cf. ovata, C. monotis and in the raphidophyte F. japonica. For the first time some PKSs were identified in these species, confirming the presence of PKS proteins predicted by the in silico translation of the transcripts found in K. brevis also in other species. The identification of O. cf. ovata PKSs and the localization of the palytoxin-like compounds produced by this dinoflagellate in a similar location (chloroplast) as that observed for other dinoflagellate and cyanobacterial toxins provides some indication that these proteins may be involved in polyketide biosynthesis. However, their potential function as fatty acid synthases cannot be ruled out, as plant fatty acid synthesis also occurs within chloroplasts. This last hypothesis is also supported by the fact that in all the investigated species, and in particular in F. japonica, PKS proteins were present. Therefore, these results provide an important contribution to the study of the polyketides and of the involvement of PKS proteins in the toxin biosynthesis.

Evaluation of Silver European EEL (anguilla anguilla) for the implementation of an Effective EEL Management plan in Mediterranean Coastal Lagoons

This thesis presents SEELF (Sustainable EEL fishery) Index, a methodology for evaluation of European eel (Anguilla anguilla) for the implementation of an effective Eel Management Plan, as defined by EU Regulation No.1100/2007. SEELF uses internal and external indices, age and blood parameters, and selects suitable specimen for restocking; it is also a reliable tool for eel stock management. In fact, SEELF Index, was developed in two versions: SEELF A, to be used in field operations (catch&release, eel status monitoring) and SEELF B to be used for quality control (food production) and research (eel status monitoring). Health status was evaluated also by biomarker analysis (ChE), and data were compared with age of eel. Age determination was performed with otolith reading and fish scale reading and a calibration between the two methods was possible. The study area was the Comacchio lagoon, a brackish coastal lagoon in Italy, well known as an example of suitable environment for eel fishery, where the capability to use the local natural resources has long been a key factor for a successful fishery management. Comacchio lagoon is proposed as an area where an effective EMP can be performed, in agreement with the main features (management of basins, reduction of mortality due to predators,etc.) highlighted for designation of European Restocking Area (ERA). The ERA is a new concept, proposed as a pillar of a new strategy on eel management and conservation. Furthermore, the features of ERAs can be useful in the framework of European Scale Eel Management Plan (ESEMP), proposed as a European scale implementation of EMP, providing a more effectiveness of conservation measures for eel management.

Effects of artificial defences and flooding on coastal habitats and assemblages

Since large stretches of European coasts are already retreating and projected scenarios are worsening, many artificial structures, such as breakwaters and seawalls, are built as tool against coastal erosion. However artificial structures produce widespread changes that alter the coastal zones and affect the biological communities. My doctoral thesis analyses the consequences of different options for coastal protection, namely hard engineering ‘artificial defences’ (i.e. impact of human-made structures) and ‘no-defence’ (i.e. impact of seawater inundation). I investigated two new aspects of the potential impact of coastal defences. The first was the effect of artificial hard substrates on the fish communities structure. In particular I was interested to test if the differences among breakwaters and natural rocky reef would change depending on the nature of the surrounding habitat of the artificial structure (prevalent sandy rather than rocky). The second was the effect on the native natural sandy habitats of the organic detritus derived from hard-bottom species (green algae and mussels) detached from breakwaters. Furthermore, I investigated the ecological implication of the “no-defend” option, which allow the inundation of coastal habitats. The focus of this study was the potential effect of seawater intrusion on the degradation process of marine, salt-marsh and terrestrial detritus, including changes on the breakdown rates and the associated macrofauna. The PhD research was conducted in three areas along European coasts: North Adriatic sea, Sicilian coast and South-West England where different habitats (coastal, estuarine), biological communities (soft-bottom macro-benthos; rocky-coastal fishes; estuarine macro-invertebrates) and processes (organic enrichment; assemblage structure; leaf-litter breakdown) were analyzed. The research was carried out through manipulative and descriptive field-experiments in which specific hypothesis were tested by univariate and multivariate analyses.

Dispersal Modeling of Fish Early Life Stages: Sensitivity with Application to Atlantic Cod in the Western Gulf of Maine

As an initial step in establishing mechanistic relationships between environmental variability and recruitment in Atlantic cod Gadhus morhua along the coast of the western Gulf of Maine, we assessed transport success of larvae from major spawning grounds to nursery areas with particle tracking using the unstructured grid model FVCOM (finite volume coastal ocean model). In coastal areas, dispersal of early planktonic life stages of fish and invertebrate species is highly dependent on the regional dynamics and its variability, which has to be captured by our models. With state-of-the-art forcing for the year 1995, we evaluate the sensitivity of particle dispersal to the timing and location of spawning, the spatial and temporal resolution of the model, and the vertical mixing scheme. A 3 d frequency for the release of particles is necessary to capture the effect of the circulation variability into an averaged dispersal pattern of the spawning season. The analysis of sensitivity to model setup showed that a higher resolution mesh, tidal forcing, and current variability do not change the general pattern of connectivity, but do tend to increase within-site retention. Our results indicate strong downstream connectivity among spawning grounds and higher chances for successful transport from spawning areas closer to the coast. The model run for January egg release indicates 1 to 19 % within-spawning ground retention of initial particles, which may be sufficient to sustain local populations. A systematic sensitivity analysis still needs to be conducted to determine the minimum mesh and forcing resolution that adequately resolves the complex dynamics of the western Gulf of Maine. Other sources of variability, i.e. large-scale upstream forcing and the biological environment, also need to be considered in future studies of the interannual variability in transport and survival of the early life stages of cod.