Potential consequences of climate change for primary production and fish production in large marine ecosystems

Existing methods to predict the effects of climate change on the biomass and production of marine communities are predicated on modelling the interactions and dynamics of individual species, a very challenging approach when interactions and distributions are changing and little is known about the ecological mechanisms driving the responses of many species. An informative parallel approach is to develop size-based methods. These capture the properties of food webs that describe energy flux and production at a particular size, independent of species' ecology. We couple a physical-biogeochemical model with a dynamic, size-based food web model to predict the future effects of climate change on fish biomass and production in 11 large regional shelf seas, with and without fishing effects. Changes in potential fish production are shown to most strongly mirror changes in phytoplankton production. We project declines of 30-60% in potential fish production across some important areas of tropical shelf and upwelling seas, most notably in the eastern Indo-Pacific, the northern Humboldt and the North Canary Current. Conversely, in some areas of the high latitude shelf seas, the production of pelagic predators was projected to increase by 28-89%.

Impacts of Climate Change on European Marine Ecosystems: Observations, Expectations and Indicators

The Northern Hemisphere has been warmer since 1980 than at any other time during the last 2000 years. The observed increase in temperature has been generally higher in northern than in southern European seas, and higher in enclosed than in open seas. Although European marine ecosystems are influenced by many other factors, such as nutrient enrichment and overfishing, every region has shown at least some changes that were most likely attributable to recent climate change. It is expected that within open systems there will generally be (further) northward movement of species, leading to a switch from polar to more temperate species in the northern seas such as the Arctic, Barents Sea and the Nordic Seas, and subtropical species moving northward to temperate regions such as the Iberian upwelling margin. For seas that are highly influenced by river runoff, such as the Baltic Sea, an increase in freshwater due to enhanced rainfall will lead to a shift from marine to more brackish and even freshwater species. If semi-enclosed systems such as the Mediterranean and the Black Sea lose their endemic species, the associated niches will probably be filled by species originating from adjacent waters and, possibly, with species transported from one region to another via ballast water and the Suez Canal. A better understanding of potential climate change impacts (scenarios) at both regional and local levels, the development of improved methods to quantify the uncertainty of climate change projections, the construction of usable climate change indicators, and an improvement of the interface between science and policy formulation in terms of risk assessment will be essential to formulate and inform better adaptive strategies to address the inevitable consequences of climate change.

Challenges in integrative approaches to modelling the marine ecosystems of the North Atlantic: Physics to fish and coasts to ocean

It has long been recognised that there are strong interactions and feedbacks between climate, upper ocean biogeochemistry and marine food webs, and also that food web structure and phytoplankton community distribution are important determinants of variability in carbon production and export from the euphotic zone. Numerical models provide a vital tool to explore these interactions, given their capability to investigate multiple connected components of the system and the sensitivity to multiple drivers, including potential future conditions. A major driver for ecosystem model development is the demand for quantitative tools to support ecosystem-based management initiatives. The purpose of this paper is to review approaches to the modelling of marine ecosystems with a focus on the North Atlantic Ocean and its adjacent shelf seas, and to highlight the challenges they face and suggest ways forward. We consider the state of the art in simulating oceans and shelf sea physics, planktonic and higher trophic level ecosystems, and look towards building an integrative approach with these existing tools. We note how the different approaches have evolved historically and that many of the previous obstacles to harmonisation may no longer be present. We illustrate this with examples from the on-going and planned modelling effort in the Integrative Modelling Work Package of the EURO-BASIN programme.

ICES and PICES Strategies for Coordinating Research on the Impacts of Climate Change on Marine Ecosystems

The social, economic, and ecological consequences of projected climate change on fish and fisheries are issues of global concern. In 2012, the International Council for the Exploration of the Sea (ICES) and the North Pacific Marine Science Organization (PICES) established a Strategic Initiative on Climate Change Effects on Marine Ecosystems (SICCME) to synthesize and to promote innovative, credible, and objective science-based advice on the impacts of climate change on marine ecosystems in the Northern Hemisphere. SICCME takes advantage of the unique and complementary strengths of the two organizations to develop a research initiative that focuses on their shared interests. A phased implementation will ensure that SICCME will be responsive to a rapidly evolving research area while delivering ongoing syntheses of existing knowledge, thereby advancing new science and methodologies and communicating new insights at each phase.

Relationships between biodiversity and the stability of marine ecosystems: comparisons at a European scale using meta-analysis.

The relationship between biodiversity and stability of marine benthic assemblages was investigated using existing data sets (n = 28) covering various spatial (m-km) and temporal (1973-2006) scales in different benthic habitats (emergent rock, rock pools and sedimentary habitats) through meta-analyses. Assemblage stability was estimated by measuring temporal variances of species richness, total abundance (density or % cover) and community species composition and abundance structure (using multivariate analyses). Positive relationships between temporal variability in species number and richness were generally observed at both quadrat (<1 m2) and site (100 m2) scales, while no relationships were observed by multivariate analyses. Positive relationships were also observed at the scale of site between temporal variability in species number and variability in community structure with evenness estimates. This implies that the relationship between species richness or evenness and species richness variability is slightly positive and depends on the scale of observation, suggesting that biodiversity per se is important for the stability of ecosystems. Changes within community assemblages in terms of structure are, however, generally independent of biodiversity, suggesting no effect of diversity, but the potential impact of individual species, and/or environmental factors. Except for sedimentary and rock pool habitats, no relationship was observed between temporal variation of the aggregated variable of total abundances and diversity at either scale. Overall our results emphasise that relationships depend on scale of measurements, type of habitats and the marine systems (North Atlantic and Mediterranean) considered.

Contamination of port zone sediments by metals from Large Marine Ecosystems of Brazil

Sediment contamination by metals poses risks to coastal ecosystems and is considered to be problematic to dredging operations. In Brazil, there are differences in sedimentology along the Large Marine Ecosystems in relation to the metal distributions. We aimed to assess the extent of Al, Fe, Hg, Cd, Cr, Cu, Ni, Pb and Zn contamination in sediments from port zones in northeast (Mucuripe and Pecem) and southeast (Santos) Brazil through geochemical analyses and sediment quality ratings. The metal concentrations found in these port zones were higher than those observed in the continental shelf or the background values in both regions. In the northeast, metals were associated with carbonate, while in Santos, they were associated with mud. Geochemical analyses showed enrichments in Hg, Cd, Cu, Ni and Zn, and a simple application of international sediment quality guidelines failed to predict their impacts, whereas the use of site-specific values that were derived by geochemical and ecotoxicological approaches seemed to be more appropriate in the management of the dredged sediments. (C) 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

An evaluation of ocean color model estimates of marine primary productivity in coastal and pelagic regions across the globe

Nearly half of the earth's photosynthetically fixed carbon derives from the oceans. To determine global and region specific rates, we rely on models that estimate marine net primary productivity (NPP) thus it is essential that these models are evaluated to determine their accuracy. Here we assessed the skill of 21 ocean color models by comparing their estimates of depth-integrated NPP to 1156 in situ C-14 measurements encompassing ten marine regions including the Sargasso Sea, pelagic North Atlantic, coastal Northeast Atlantic, Black Sea, Mediterranean Sea, Arabian Sea, subtropical North Pacific, Ross Sea, West Antarctic Peninsula, and the Antarctic Polar Frontal Zone. Average model skill, as determined by root-mean square difference calculations, was lowest in the Black and Mediterranean Seas, highest in the pelagic North Atlantic and the Antarctic Polar Frontal Zone, and intermediate in the other six regions. The maximum fraction of model skill that may be attributable to uncertainties in both the input variables and in situ NPP measurements was nearly 72%. on average, the simplest depth/wavelength integrated models performed no worse than the more complex depth/wavelength resolved models. Ocean color models were not highly challenged in extreme conditions of surface chlorophyll-a and sea surface temperature, nor in high-nitrate low-chlorophyll waters. Water column depth was the primary influence on ocean color model performance such that average skill was significantly higher at depths greater than 250 m, suggesting that ocean color models are more challenged in Case-2 waters (coastal) than in Case-1 (pelagic) waters. Given that in situ chlorophyll-a data was used as input data, algorithm improvement is required to eliminate the poor performance of ocean color NPP models in Case-2 waters that are close to coastlines. Finally, ocean color chlorophyll-a algorithms are challenged by optically complex Case-2 waters, thus using satellite-derived chlorophyll-a to estimate NPP in coastal areas would likely further reduce the skill of ocean color models.

Laser Optical Plankton Counter and Zooscan intercomparison in tropical and subtropical marine ecosystems

Two recently developed instruments, the Laser Optical Plankton Counter (LOPC) and the Zooscan, have been applied to study zooplankton biomass size spectra in tropical and subtropical marine ecosystems off Brazil. Both technologies rely on optical measurements of particles and may potentially be used in zooplankton monitoring programs. Vertical profiles of the LOPC installed in a 200 mu m ring net have been obtained from diverse environmental settings ranging from turbid and nearshore waters to oligotrophic open ocean conditions. Net samples were analyzed on the Zooscan and counted under a microscope. Particle biovolume in the study area estimated with the LOPC correlated with plankton displacement volume from the net samples, but there was no significant relationship between total areal zooplankton biomass determined with LOPC and the Zooscan. Apparently, normalized biomass size spectra (NBSS) of LOPC and Zooscan overlapped for particles in the size range of 500 to 1500 mu m in equivalent spherical diameter (ESD), especially at open ocean stations. However, the distribution of particles into five size classes was statistically different between both instruments at 24 of 28 stations. The disparities arise from unequal flow estimates, from different sampling efficiencies of LOPC tunnel and net for large and small particles, and possibly from the interference of non-zooplankton material in the LOPC signal. Ecosystem properties and technical differences therefore limit the direct comparability of the NBSS slopes obtained with both instruments during this study, and their results should be regarded as complementary.

Occurrence and Range-through database of functional diversity of marine ecosystems after the Late Permian mass extinction event

The Late Permian mass extinction event about 252 million years ago was the most severe biotic crisis of the past 500 million years and occurred during an episode of global warming. The loss of around two-thirds of marine genera is thought to have had substantial ecological effects, but the overall impacts on the functioning of marine ecosystems and the pattern of marine recovery are uncertain. Here we analyse the fossil occurrences of all known benthic marine invertebrate genera from the Permian and Triassic periods, and assign each to a functional group based on their inferred lifestyle. We show that despite the selective extinction of 62-74% of these genera, all but one functional group persisted through the crisis, indicating that there was no significant loss of functional diversity at the global scale. In addition, only one new mode of life originated in the extinction aftermath. We suggest that Early Triassic marine ecosystems were not as ecologically depauperate as widely assumed. Functional diversity was, however, reduced in particular regions and habitats, such as tropical reefs; at these smaller scales, recovery varied spatially and temporally, probably driven by migration of surviving groups. We find that marine ecosystems did not return to their pre-extinction state, and by the Middle Triassic greater functional evenness is recorded, resulting from the radiation of previously subordinate groups such as motile, epifaunal grazers.

Data catalog for the Marine Ecosystems Analysis Puget Sound Project : distribution and summarization of digital data /

The MESA Puget Sound Project is sponsored by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and the Environmental Protection Agency.

Composition of a protein-like fluorophore of dissolved organic matter in coastal wetland and estuarine ecosystems

This study demonstrates the compositional heterogeneity of a protein-like fluorescence emission signal (T-peak; excitation/emission maximum at 280/325 nm) of dissolved organic matter (DOM) samples collected from subtropical river and estuarine environments. Natural water samples were collected from the Florida Coastal Everglades ecosystem. The samples were ultrafiltered and excitation–emission fluorescence matrices were obtained. The T-peak intensity correlated positively with N concentration of the ultrafiltered DOM solution (UDON), although, the low correlation coefficient (r2=0.140, p<0.05) suggested the coexistence of proteins with other classes of compounds in the T-peak. As such, the T-peak was unbundled on size exclusion chromatography. The elution curves showed that the T-peak was composed of two compounds with distinct molecular weights (MW) with nominal MWs of about >5×104 (T1) and ∼7.6×103 (T2) and with varying relative abundance among samples. The T1-peak intensity correlated strongly with [UDON] (r2=0.516, p<0.001), while T2-peak did not, which suggested that the T-peak is composed of a mixture of compounds with different chemical structures and ecological roles, namely proteinaceous materials and presumably phenolic moieties in humic-like substances. Natural source of the latter may include polyphenols leached from senescent plant materials, which are important precursors of humic substances. This idea is supported by the fact that polyphenols, such as gallic acid, an important constituent of hydrolysable tannins, and condensed tannins extracted from red mangrove (Rhizophora mangle) leaves exhibited the fluorescence peak in the close vicinity of the T-peak (260/346 and 275/313 nm, respectively). Based on this study the application of the T-peak as a proxy for [DON] in natural waters may have limitations in coastal zones with significant terrestrial DOM input.