Planejamento da expansão de sistemas elétricos de distribuição considerando fatores de riscos em análise econômica

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

Indicadores de impacto, visibilidade e colaboração para a produção científica da Pós-graduação brasileira: um estudo nos programas de excelência na área de Zootecnia

Pós-graduação em Ciência da Informação - FFC

El área de gestión de la información y del conocimiento como frente de investigación en la Ciencia de la Información brasileña: análisis de la producción científica en el período 2000-2009

The management of information and knowledge has been one of the areas of expertise of the fastest growing Brazilian information science. The purpose of this work is to observe how this research front structure from the point of view of the subjects that compose and intellectual frameworks which supports. For this we have analyzed the content of scientific production published in four majo r national journals of the discipline: Ciência da Informação, DataGramaZero, Perspectivas em Ciência da Informação and Transinformação over 2000-2009. The methodology is based on co-occurrence analysis of keywords of articles and co-citation analysis of authors. For the representation and interpretation of the results are used to social network analysis (SNA). We conclude that both information management and knowledge management are closely linked areas within topics including approaches but no consensus answer from the point of view of intellectual frameworks referenced.

Análise de cocitação de autores: um estudo teórico-metodológico dos indicadores de proximidade, aplicados ao GT7 da ANCIB

Of a theoretical-methodological nature, this research aims at analyzing the absolute and relative proximity indicators – Salton’s cosine and Jaccard’s index –, for authors’ co-citation analysis (ACA). It also aims at comparing the contribution of these three indicators to the understanding of a domain. Methodologically, it deepens the theoretical studies that motivate authors’ co-citation analysis (ACA) and the proximity indicators, and presents the studies of the normalized index of Salton’ cosine (SC) and Jaccard’s index (JI). It applies ACA to the GT7 of ANCIB, in the Information Science field, from 2007 to 2011.

Effect of calcium chloride on the pH values of several formulations of calcium hydroxide mixed with chlorhexidine digluconate

This study evaluated the effect of the addition of 5% calcium chlorite (CaCl2) on pH values in calcium hydroxide pastes (CH), with or without 2% chlorhexidine digluconate (CHX) used as vehicle, in several periods analysis. Polyethylene tubes were filled with CH mixed with water (G1), 2% CHX solution (G2) or gel (G3), or CHX solution or gel with 5% CaCl2 (G4 and G5, respectively). All tubes were individually immersed in distilled water. After 12, 24 hours, 7, 14 and 28 days, pH value was evaluated directly in water which the tubes were stored. Data were submitted to ANOVA and Tukey tests (α=0.05). In 24 hs and 14 days, pH values were similar to all groups. In 12 hs, the G1 presented lower pH value than other groups except to G4 (p < 0.05), and G4 presented lower pH value than G5 (p < 0.05). In 7 days, G1 presented lower pH value than G4 and G5 (p < 0.05). In 28 days, G1 and G5 presented lower pH values than G2 and G4 (p < 0.05) and among other groups there are no statistical differences (p > 0.05). The pH values increased in long-term analysis to all CH pastes. The association of 5% calcium chloride with 2% CHX solution as vehicle of CH paste provided a pH value increase in relation to CH mixed with distilled water. The CHX gel interfered negatively on pH value in comparison to CHX solution when mixed with CaCl2.

ROBO1 deletion as a novel germline alteration in breast and colorectal cancer patients

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Avaliação econômica da substituição do farelo de soja por farelo de algodão em dietas práticas para tilápias do Nilo cultivadas em tanques-rede

Based on fish production performance, this study assessed the feasibility of replacing SBM with CSM in practical diets for cage-raised Nile tilapia during the finishing phase. To accomplish this research, four isoproteic (32% CP) and isoenergetic (2500 Kcal/kg of DE) diets were formulated. Control diet (T1) contained 30 % of SBM and 0% of CSM. The other three diets contained: 20% of SBM and 10% of CSM (T2), 10% of SBM and 20% of CSM (T3) and 0% of SBM and 30% of CSM (T4). Lysine and Methionine deficiency was compensated for with synthetic amino acid (L-lysine and DL- methionine) supplementation. Experimental design was completely randomized with four treatments and four repetitions. Data were analyzed with SAS PROC GLM through co-variance analysis, adding initial mean weight as a co-variable, followed by Dunnett test. The system used to calculate the profit part was Partial Budget Analysis in Aquaculture, proposed by Shang (1990). Profit was significantly different at T3 when compared to T1 (control). It was concluded that the addition of 20% of CSM to finishing diets can improve cage-raised Nile tilapia profitability.

I dati metereologici per applicazioni energetiche e ambientali

Many energetic and environmental evaluations need appropriate meteorological data, as input to analysis and prevision softwares. In Italy there aren't adeguate meteorological data because, in many cases, they are incomplete, incorrect and also very expensive for a long-term analysis (that needs multi-year data sets). A possible solution to this problem is the use of a Typical Meteorological Year (TRY), generated for specific applications. Nowadays the TRYs have been created, using statistical criteria, just for the analysis of solar energy systems and for predicting the thermal performance of buildings, applying it also to the study of photovoltaic plants (PV), though not specifically created for this type of application. The present research has defined the methodology for the creation of TRYs for different applications. In particular TRYs for environmental and wind plant analysis have been created. This is the innovative aspect of this research, never explored before. In additions, the methodology of the generation for the PV TRYs has been improved. The results are very good and the TRYs generated for these applications are adeguate to characterize the climatic condition of the place over a long period and can be used for energetic and environmental studies.

Intracellular imaging of nanoparticles: is it an elemental mistake to believe what you see?

In order to understand how nanoparticles (NPs <100 nm) interact with cellular systems, potentially causing adverse effects, it is important to be able to detect and localize them within cells. Due to the small size of NPs, transmission electron microscopy (TEM) is an appropriate technique to use for visualizing NPs inside cells, since light microscopy fails to resolve them at a single particle level. However, the presence of other cellular and non-cellular nano-sized structures in TEM cell samples, which may resemble NPs in size, morphology and electron density, can obstruct the precise intracellular identification of NPs. Therefore, elemental analysis is recommended to confirm the presence of NPs inside the cell. The present study highlights the necessity to perform elemental analysis, specifically energy filtering TEM, to confirm intracellular NP localization using the example of quantum dots (QDs). Recently, QDs have gained increased attention due to their fluorescent characteristics, and possible applications for biomedical imaging have been suggested. Nevertheless, potential adverse effects cannot be excluded and some studies point to a correlation between intracellular particle localization and toxic effects. J774.A1 murine macrophage-like cells were exposed to NH2 polyethylene (PEG) QDs and elemental co-localization analysis of two elements present in the QDs (sulfur and cadmium) was performed on putative intracellular QDs with electron spectroscopic imaging (ESI). Both elements were shown on a single particle level and QDs were confirmed to be located inside intracellular vesicles. Nevertheless, ESI analysis showed that not all nano-sized structures, initially identified as QDs, were confirmed. This observation emphasizes the necessity to perform elemental analysis when investigating intracellular NP localization using TEM.

Noninvasive Doppler-derived myocardial performance index in rats with myocardial infarction: validation and correlation by conductance catheter

The rodent model of myocardial infarction (MI) is extensively used in heart failure studies. However, long-term follow-up of echocardiographic left ventricular (LV) function parameters such as the myocardial performance index (MPI) and its ratio with the fractional shortening (LVFS/MPI) has not been validated in conjunction with invasive indexes, such as those derived from the conductance catheter (CC). Sprague-Dawley rats with left anterior descending coronary artery ligation (MI group, n = 9) were compared with a sham-operated control group (n = 10) without MI. Transthoracic echocardiography (TTE) was performed every 2 wk over an 8-wk period, after which classic TTE parameters, especially MPI and LVFS/MPI, were compared with invasive indexes obtained by using a CC. Serial TTE data showed significant alterations in the majority of the noninvasive functional and structural parameters (classic and novel) studied in the presence of MI. Both MPI and LVFS/MPI significantly (P < 0.05 for all reported values) correlated with body weight (r = -0.58 and 0.76 for MPI and LVFS/MPI, respectively), preload recruitable stroke work (r = -0.61 and 0.63), LV end-diastolic pressure (LVEDP) (r = 0.82 and -0.80), end-diastolic volume (r = 0.61 and -0.58), and end-systolic volume (r = 0.46 and -0.48). Forward stepwise linear regression analysis revealed that, of all variables tested, LVEDP was the only independent determinant of MPI (r = 0.84) and LVFS/MPI (r = 0.83). We conclude that MPI and LVFS/MPI correlate strongly and better than the classic noninvasive TTE parameters with established, invasively assessed indexes of contractility, preload, and volumetry. These findings support the use of these two new noninvasive indexes for long-term analysis of the post-MI LV remodeling.

DISSECTION OF STRESS RESPONSE NETWORKS REGULATING MULTIPLE STRESSES IN RICE

Important food crops like rice are constantly exposed to various stresses that can have devastating effect on their survival and productivity. Being sessile, these highly evolved organisms have developed elaborate molecular machineries to sense a mixture of stress signals and elicit a precise response to minimize the damage. However, recent discoveries revealed that the interplay of these stress regulatory and signaling molecules is highly complex and remains largely unknown. In this work, we conducted large scale analysis of differential gene expression using advanced computational methods to dissect regulation of stress response which is at the heart of all molecular changes leading to the observed phenotypic susceptibility. One of the most important stress conditions in terms of loss of productivity is drought. We performed genomic and proteomic analysis of epigenetic and miRNA mechanisms in regulation of drought responsive genes in rice and found subsets of genes with striking properties. Overexpressed genesets included higher number of epigenetic marks, miRNA targets and transcription factors which regulate drought tolerance. On the other hand, underexpressed genesets were poor in above features but were rich in number of metabolic genes with multiple co-expression partners contributing majorly towards drought resistance. Identification and characterization of the patterns exhibited by differentially expressed genes hold key to uncover the synergistic and antagonistic components of the cross talk between stress response mechanisms. We performed meta-analysis on drought and bacterial stresses in rice and Arabidopsis, and identified hundreds of shared genes. We found high level of conservation of gene expression between these stresses. Weighted co-expression network analysis detected two tight clusters of genes made up of master transcription factors and signaling genes showing strikingly opposite expression status. To comprehensively identify the shared stress responsive genes between multiple abiotic and biotic stresses in rice, we performed meta-analyses of microarray studies from seven different abiotic and six biotic stresses separately and found more than thirteen hundred shared stress responsive genes. Various machine learning techniques utilizing these genes classified the stresses into two major classes' namely abiotic and biotic stresses and multiple classes of individual stresses with high accuracy and identified the top genes showing distinct patterns of expression. Functional enrichment and co-expression network analysis revealed the different roles of plant hormones, transcription factors in conserved and non-conserved genesets in regulation of stress response.

The use of second-generation antipsychotics and the changes in physical growth in children and adolescents with perinatally acquired HIV.

Second-generation antipsychotics (SGAs) are increasingly prescribed to treat psychiatric symptoms in pediatric patients infected with HIV. We examined the relationship between prescribed SGAs and physical growth in a cohort of youth with perinatally acquired HIV-1 infection. Pediatric AIDS Clinical Trials Group (PACTG), Protocol 219C (P219C), a multicenter, longitudinal observational study of children and adolescents perinatally exposed to HIV, was conducted from September 2000 until May 2007. The analysis included P219C participants who were perinatally HIV-infected, 3-18 years old, prescribed first SGA for at least 1 month, and had available baseline data prior to starting first SGA. Each participant prescribed an SGA was matched (based on gender, age, Tanner stage, baseline body mass index [BMI] z score) with 1-3 controls without antipsychotic prescriptions. The main outcomes were short-term (approximately 6 months) and long-term (approximately 2 years) changes in BMI z scores from baseline. There were 236 participants in the short-term and 198 in the long-term analysis. In linear regression models, youth with SGA prescriptions had increased BMI z scores relative to youth without antipsychotic prescriptions, for all SGAs (short-term increase = 0.192, p = 0.003; long-term increase = 0.350, p < 0.001), and for risperidone alone (short-term = 0.239, p = 0.002; long-term = 0.360, p = 0.001). Participants receiving both protease inhibitors (PIs) and SGAs showed especially large increases. These findings suggest that growth should be carefully monitored in youth with perinatally acquired HIV who are prescribed SGAs. Future research should investigate the interaction between PIs and SGAs in children and adolescents with perinatally acquired HIV infection.

Biochemical and genetic characterization of the Saccharomyces cerevisiae Hsp110 molecular chaperone Sse1

The Ssel/Hsp110 molecular chaperones are a poorly understood subgroup of the Hsp70 chaperone family. Hsp70 can refold denatured polypeptides via a carboxyl-terminal peptide binding domain (PBD), which is regulated by nucleotide cycling in an amino-terminal ATPase domain. However, unlike Hsp70, both Sse1 and mammalian Hsp110 bind unfolded peptide substrates but cannot refold them. To test the in vivo requirement for interdomain communication, SSE1 alleles carrying amino acid substitutions in the ATPase domain were assayed for their ability to complement sse1Δ phenotypes. Surprisingly, all mutants predicted to abolish ATP hydrolysis complemented the temperature sensitivity of sse1Δ, whereas mutations in predicted ATP binding residues were non-functional. Remarkably, the two domains of Ssel when expressed in trans functionally complement the sse1Δ growth phenotype and interact by coimmunoprecipitation analysis, indicative of a novel type of interdomain communication. ^ Relatively little is known regarding the interactions and cellular functions of Ssel. Through co-immunoprecipitation analysis, we found that Ssel forms heterodimeric complexes with the abundant cytosolic Hsp70s Ssa and Ssb in vivo. Furthermore, these complexes can be efficiently reconstituted in vitro using purified proteins. The ATPase domains of Ssel and the Hsp70s were found to be critical for interaction as inactivating point mutations severely reduced interaction efficiency. Ssel stimulated Ssal ATPase activity synergistically with the co-chaperone Ydj1 via a novel nucleotide exchange activity. Furthermore, FES1, another Ssa nucleotide exchange factor, can functionally substitute for SSE1/2 when overexpressed, suggesting that Hsp70 nucleotide exchange is the fundamental role of the Sse proteins in yeast, and by extension, the Hsp110 homologs in mammals. ^ Cells lacking SSE1 were found to accumulate prepro-α-factor, but not the cotranslationally imported protein Kar2, similar to mutants in the Ssa chaperones. This indicates that the interaction between Ssel and Ssa is functionally significant in vivo. In addition, sse10 cells are compromised for cell wall strength, likely a result of decreased Hsp90 chaperone activity with the cell integrity MAP kinase SIC. Taken together, this work established that the Hsp110 family must be considered an essential component of Hsp70 chaperone biology in the eukaryotic cell.^

Propuesta metodológica para la identificación de medidas de adaptación al cambio climático en sistemas de recursos hídricos

Esta tesis realiza una contribución metodológica en el estudio de medidas de adaptación potencialmente adecuadas a largo plazo, donde los sistemas de recursos hídricos experimentan fuertes presiones debido a los efectos del cambio climático. Esta metodología integra el análisis físico del sistema, basándose en el uso de indicadores que valoran el comportamiento de éste, y el análisis económico mediante el uso del valor del agua. El procedimiento metodológico inicia con la construcción de un conjunto de escenarios futuros, que capturan por un lado las características de variabilidad de las aportaciones de diversos modelos climáticos y, por otro, las características hidrológicas de la zona de estudio. Las zonas de estudio seleccionadas fueron las cuencas del Guadalquivir, Duero y Ebro y se utilizaron como datos observados las series de escorrentía en régimen natural estimadas por el modelo SIMPA que está calibrado en la totalidad del territorio español. Estas series observadas corresponden al periodo 1961-1990. Los escenarios futuros construidos representan el periodo 2071-2100. La identificación de medidas de adaptación se apoyó en el uso de indicadores que sean capaces de caracterizar el comportamiento de un sistema de recursos hídricos frente a los efectos del cambio climático. Para ello se seleccionaron los indicadores de calidad de servicio (I1) y de confiabilidad de la demanda (I2) propuestos por Martin-Carrasco et al. (2012). Estos indicadores valoran el comportamiento de un sistema mediante la identificación de los problemas de escasez de agua que presente, y requieren para su cuantificación el uso de un modelo de optimización. Para este estudio se ha trabajado con el modelo de optimización OPTIGES. La determinación de estos indicadores fue realizada para análisis a corto plazo donde los efectos del cambio climático no son de relevancia, por lo que fue necesario analizar su capacidad para ser usados en sistemas afectados por dichos efectos. Para este análisis se seleccionaron tres cuencas españolas: Guadalquivir, Duero y Ebro, determinándose que I2 no es adecuado para este tipo de escenarios. Por ello se propuso un nuevo indicador “Indicador de calidad de servicio bajo cambio climático” (I2p) que mantiene los mismos criterios de valoración que I2 pero que responde mejor bajo fuertes reducciones de aportaciones producto del cambio climático. La metodología propuesta para la identificación de medidas de adaptación se basa en un proceso iterativo en el cual se van afectando diversos elementos que conforman el esquema del sistema bajo acciones de gestión previamente identificadas, hasta llegar a un comportamiento óptimo dado por el gestor. Las mejoras de estas afectaciones son cuantificadas mediante los indicadores I1 e I2p, y de este conjunto de valores se selecciona la que se acerca más al comportamiento óptimo. Debido a la extensa cantidad de información manejada en este análisis, se desarrolló una herramienta de cálculo automatizada en Matlab. El proceso seguido por esta herramienta es: (i) Ejecución del modelo OPTIGES para las diferentes modificaciones por acciones de gestión; (ii) Cálculo de los valores de I1 e I2p para cada una de estas afectaciones; y (iii) Selección de la mejor opción. Este proceso se repite hasta llegar al comportamiento óptimo buscado, permitiendo la identificación de las medidas de adaptación mas adecuadas. La aplicación de la metodología para la identificación de medidas de adaptación se realizó en la cuenca del Guadalquivir, por ser de las tres cuencas analizadas bajo los indicadores I1 e I2p la que presenta los problemas más serios de escasez de agua. Para la identificación de medidas de adaptación se analizaron dos acciones de gestión: 1) incremento de los volúmenes de regulación y 2) reducción de las demandas de riego, primero bajo la valoración del comportamiento físico del sistema (análisis de sensibilidad) permitiendo identificar que la primera acción de gestión no genera cambios importantes en el comportamiento del sistema, que si se presentan bajo la segunda acción. Posteriormente, con la acción que genera cambios importantes en el comportamiento del sistema (segunda acción) se identificaron las medidas de adaptación más adecuadas, mediante el análisis físico y económico del sistema. Se concluyó que en la cuenca del Guadalquivir, la acción de reducción de las demandas de riego permite minimizar e incluso eliminar los problemas de escasez de agua que se presentarían a futuro bajo diferentes proyecciones hidrológicas, aunque estas mejoras implicarían fuertes reducciones en dichas demandas. Siendo las demandas más afectadas aquellas ubicadas en cabecera de cuenca. Los criterios para la reducción de las demandas se encuentran en función de las productividades y garantías con las que son atendidas dichas demandas. This thesis makes a methodological contribution to the study of potentially suitable adaptation measures in the long term, where water resource systems undergo strong pressure due to the effects of climate change. This methodology integrates the physical analysis of the system, by the use of indicators which assess its behavior, and the economic analysis by the use of the value of water. The methodological procedure begins with the building of a set of future scenarios that capture, by one hand, the characteristics and variability of the streamflow of various climate models and, on the other hand, the hydrological characteristics of the study area. The study areas chosen were the Guadalquivir, Ebro and Duero basins, and as observed data where used runoff series in natural regimen estimated by the SIMPA model, which is calibrated in the whole Spanish territory. The observed series are for the 1961-1990 period. The future scenarios built represent the 2071-2100 periods. The identification of adaptation measures relied on the use of indicators that were able of characterize the behavior of one water resource system facing the effects of climate change. Because of that, the Demand Satisfaction Index (I1) and the Demand Reliability Index (I2) proposed by Martin-Carrasco et al. (2012) were selected. These indicators assess the behavior of a system by identifying the water scarcity problems that it presents, and require in order to be quantified the use of one optimization model. For this study the OPTIGES optimization model has been used. The determination of the indicators was made for the short-term analysis where the climates change effect are not relevant, so it was necessary to analyze their capability to be used in systems affected by those these. For this analysis three Spanish basins were selected: Guadalquivir, Duero and Ebro. It was determined that the indicator I2 is not suitable for this type of scenario. It was proposed a new indicator called “Demand Reliability Index under climate change” (I2p), which keeps the same assessment criteria than I2, but responsive under heavy reductions of streamflow due to climate change. The proposed methodology for identifying adaptation measures is based on an iterative process, in which the different elements of the system´s schema are affected by previously defined management actions, until reach an optimal behavior given by the manager. The improvements of affectations are measured by indicators I1 e I2p, and from this set of values it is selected the affectation that is closer to the optimal behavior. Due to the large amount of information managed in this analysis, it was developed an automatic calculation tool in Matlab. The process followed by this tool is: Firstly, it executes the OPTIGES model for the different modifications by management actions; secondly, it calculates the values of I1 e I2p for each of these affectations; and finally it chooses the best option. This process is performed for the different iterations that are required until reach the optimal behavior, allowing to identify the most appropriate adaptation measured. The application of the methodology for the identification of adaptation measures was conducted in the Guadalquivir basin, due to this was from the three basins analyzed under the indicators I1 e I2p, which presents the most serious problems of water scarcity. For the identification of adaptation measures there were analyzed two management actions: 1) To increase the regulation volumes, and 2) to reduce the irrigation demands, first under the assessment of the physical behavior of the system (sensibility analysis), allowing to identify that the first management action does not generate significant changes in the system´s behavior, which there are present under the second management action. Afterwards, with the management action that generates significant changes in the system´s behavior (second management action), there were identified the most adequate adaptation measures, through the physical and economic analysis of the system. It was concluded that in the Guadalquivir basin, the action of reduction of irrigation demands allows to minimize or even eliminate the water scarcity problems that could exist in the future under different hydrologic projections, although this improvements should involve strong reductions of the irrigation demands. Being the most affected demands those located in basins head. The criteria for reducing the demands are based on the productivities and reliabilities with which such demands are meet.

Método de análisis diacrónico para la intervención en el alojamiento con criterios ecológicos. El caso de Madrid 1940–2100

Las evidencias del impacto sobre el medio ambiente asociado al funcionamiento de las ciudades hacen que sea urgente proponer medidas que reduzcan este consumo y mejoren la eficiencia del metabolismo urbano. La existencia de límites en la disponibilidad de recursos materiales y energéticos, plantea actualmente un reto importante al ser humano: ¿son posibles otras formas de organización más adecuadas a esta condición de limitación? Para dar respuesta, resulta fundamental conocer cómo interactuarán nuestros sistemas urbanos en un modelo económico de continuo desarrollo, con la población que alojan, y si podrán adaptarse a la capacidad de carga limitada del Planeta, evitando futuras situaciones de colapso anunciadas desde distintos ámbitos científicos. En ese contexto, la tesis formula un método de análisis del alojamiento que, mediante la evaluación a largo plazo, permita proponer medidas de intervención para reducir el consumo de recursos asociado a su funcionamiento. Se parte de un enfoque ecológico para definir el alojamiento como una parte fundamental del sistema urbano, que está compuesto por tres elementos: habitantes, viviendas y recursos naturales; por tanto, para reducir los impactos asociados al alojamiento es necesario tener en cuenta la diferente naturaleza de estos elementos y el carácter dinámico de las relaciones que se producen entre ellos. La Ecología, a través del estudio de los ecosistemas, ha identificado estrategias de supervivencia y adaptación ante los cambios y perturbaciones. La similitud entre los elementos de un ecosistema (población y soporte) y los del alojamiento (habitantes, viviendas y recursos naturales) permite verificar que la aplicación de estas estrategias al alojamiento puede conducir a situaciones más deseables en la relación de los sistemas urbanos con su entorno A partir de esta hipótesis, se propone un método de análisis diacrónico1 o a largo plazo, para conocer la evolución en el tiempo del alojamiento a través de la cuantificación de una serie de indicadores descriptivos de los habitantes, las viviendas y los recursos naturales. La aplicación de este método a un sistema urbano permitiría conocer las características de los elementos del sistema y, para un ámbito temporal de futuro, prever su evolución, identificar escenarios no deseables y proponer medidas de intervención que corrijan anticipadamente estas situaciones y eviten impactos ambientales innecesarios. La validación del método de análisis se realiza mediante la aplicación al caso de Madrid en periodo retrospectivo (de 1940 a 2010) A partir del estudio de la evolución en Madrid de los indicadores seleccionados, se proponen medidas de intervención en el alojamiento basadas en estrategias ecológicas que habrían conducido a una evolución alternativa con un impacto menor sobre el medio ambiente que la situación actual. El método de análisis se aplica con carácter prospectivo definiendo tres escenarios de futuro para Madrid hasta 2100. Para cada uno de ellos se analiza la evolución previsible de los indicadores y se proponen diferentes medidas de intervención que, desde el punto de vista ecológico, conducirían a una situación más adecuada. La tesis concluye en el interés de este método de análisis diacrónico que permite estimar posibilidades en la evolución futura del alojamiento, identificar las necesidades de recursos para responder a las demandas de los habitantes y, desde un enfoque ecológico, definir, cuantificar y evaluar posibles medidas de intervención que reduzcan los impactos ambientales. El método, por tanto, es una herramienta de interés para la toma de decisiones en la intervención en el alojamiento y en la planificación urbana a largo plazo. ABSTRACT Evidence of the impact on the environment associated with the operation of cities make it urgent to propose measures to reduce energy consumption and improve the efficiency of urban metabolism. The limited availability of materials and energy resources currently poses a significant challenge to human beings: are more appropriate forms of organization for this limitation possible? In response, it is essential to know how our urban systems with the population they host will interact in an economic model of continuous development and whether they can adapt to the limited endurance capacity of the planet, thus avoiding future collapse situations which are being announced from different scientific fields. In this context, the thesis puts forward a method of housing analysis that by a long term assessment will enable to propose intervention measures to reduce resource consumption associated with its operation. The thesis is based on an ecological approach to identify housing as a fundamental part of the urban system, which is composed of three elements: inhabitants, homes and natural resources. Therefore, in order to reduce the impacts associated with housing it is necessary to consider the characteristics of these elements and the dynamic nature of the relationships among them. Ecology, through the analysis of ecosystems, has identified strategies for survival and adaptation to changes and disturbances. The similarity between the elements of an ecosystem (population and support) and housing (inhabitants, homes and natural resources) enables to verify that the implementation of these strategies to housing can lead to better situations in the relationship existing between urban systems with their environment. From this hypothesis, a diachronic or long term analysis method is proposed to know the evolution of housing over time through the quantification of a descriptive indicators series of inhabitants, homes and natural resources. The implementation of this method to a urban system would allow better knowledge of the characteristics of these elements and forecast their development, identify undesirable scenarios and propose early intervention measures to correct these situations and avoid unnecessary environmental impacts. The validation of the method of analysis has been proved in the city of Madrid for the years 1940-2010. From the analysis of the evolution of the indicators selected, accommodation intervention measures are proposed based on ecological strategies that would have led to an alternative development having less impact on the environment than that of the current situation. The analysis method is implemented prospectively defining three future scenarios for the city of Madrid until 2100. The likely evolution of the indicators are analyzed for each scenario and various intervention measures that would lead to a better situation from an ecological point of view are proposed. The thesis conclusion states the interest of this diachronic analysis method to estimate potential future developments in the housing field, identify resource requirements to meet the demands of the citizens and, from an ecological approach, define, quantify and assess possible intervention measures to reduce environmental impacts. The method, therefore, is an interesting tool for decision-making process as for the intervention in housing and urban planning in the long term.