Environmental policy and technological change

The relationship between technological change and environmental policy has received increasing attention from scholars and policy makers alike over the past ten years. This is partly because the environmental impacts of social activity are significantly affected by technological change, and partly because environmental policy interventions themselves create new constraints and incentives that affect the process of technological developments. Our central purpose in this article is to provide environmental economists with a useful guide to research on technological change and the analytical tools that can be used to explore further the interaction between technology and the environment. In Part 1 of the article, we provide an overview of analytical frameworks for investigating the economics of technological change, highlighting key issues for the researcher. In Part 2, we turn our attention to theoretical analysis of the effects of environmental policy on technological change, and in Part 3, we focus on issues related to the empirical analysis of technology innovation and diffusion. Finally, we conclude in Part 4 with some additional suggestions for research.

Use of Continuous Plankton Recorder information in support of marine management: applications in fisheries, environmental protection, and in the study of ecosystem response to environmental change

The Continuous Plankton Recorder (CPR) survey was conceived from the outset as a programme of applied research designed to assist the fishing industry. Its survival and continuing vigour after 70 years is a testament to its utility, which has been achieved in spite of great changes in our understanding of the marine environment and in our concerns over how to manage it. The CPR has been superseded in several respects by other technologies, such as acoustics and remote sensing, but it continues to provide unrivalled seasonal and geographic information about a wide range of zooplankton and phytoplankton taxa. The value of this coverage increases with time and provides the basis for placing recent observations into the context of long-term, large-scale variability and thus suggesting what the causes are likely to be. Information from the CPR is used extensively in judging environmental impacts and producing quality status reports (QSR); it has shown the distributions of fish stocks, which had not previously been exploited; it has pointed to the extent of ungrazed phytoplankton production in the North Atlantic, which was a vital element in establishing the importance of carbon sequestration by phytoplankton. The CPR continues to be the principal source of large-scale, long-term information about the plankton ecosystem of the North Atlantic. It has recently provided extensive information about the biodiversity of the plankton and about the distribution of introduced species. It serves as a valuable example for the design of future monitoring of the marine environment and it has been essential to the design and implementation of most North Atlantic plankton research.

Marine biodiversity and climate change: assessing and predicting the influence of climatic change using intertidal rocky shore biota. Occasional Publication of the Marine Biological Association 20

In the last 60 years climate change has altered the distribution and abundance of many seashore species. Below is a summary of the findings of this project. The MarClim project was a four year multi-partner funded project created to investigate the effects of climatic warming on marine biodiversity. In particular the project aimed to use intertidal species, whose abundances had been shown to fluctuate with changes in climatic conditions, as indicator species of likely responses of species not only on rocky shores, but also those found offshore. The project used historic time series data, from in some cases the 1950s onwards, and contemporary data collected as part of the MarClim project (2001-2005), to provide evidence of changes in the abundance, range and population structure of intertidal species and relate these changes to recent rapid climatic warming. In particular quantitative counts of barnacles, limpets and trochids were made as well as semi-quantitative surveys of up to 56 intertidal taxa.Historic and contemporary data informed experiments to understand the mechanisms behind these changes and models to predict future species ranges and abundances.

Global latitudinal variations in marine copepod diversity and environmental factors

Latitudinal gradients in diversity are among the most striking features in ecology. For terrestrial species, climate (i.e. temperature and precipitation) is believed to exert a strong influence on the geographical distributions of diversity through its effects on energy availability. Here, we provide the first global description of geographical variation in the diversity of marine copepods, a key trophic link between phytoplankton and fish, in relation to environmental variables. We found a polar-tropical difference in copepod diversity in the Northern Hemisphere where diversity peaked at subtropical latitudes. In the Southern Hemisphere, diversity showed a tropical plateau into the temperate regions. This asymmetry around the Equator may be explained by climatic conditions, in particular the influence of the Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone, prevailing mainly in the northern tropical region. Ocean temperature was the most important explanatory factor among all environmental variables tested, accounting for 54 per cent of the variation in diversity. Given the strong positive correlation between diversity and temperature, local copepod diversity, especially in extra-tropical regions, is likely to increase with climate change as their large-scale distributions respond to climate warming.

Black-legged kittiwakes as indicators of environmental change in the North Sea; evidence from long-term studies

Top predators, particularly seabirds, have repeatedly been suggested as indicators of marine ecosystem status. One region currently under pressure from human fisheries and climate change is the North Sea. Standardized seabird monitoring data have been collected on the Isle of May, an important seabird colony in the northwestern North Sea, over the last 10–20 years. Over this period oceanographic conditions have varied markedly, and between 1990 and 1999 a major industrial fishery for sandlance (Ammodytes marinus), the main prey of most seabird species, was prosecuted nearby. Sandlance fishing grounds close to seabird colonies down the east coast of the UK were closed in 2000 in an attempt to improve foraging opportunities for breeding seabirds, particularly black-legged kittiwakes (Rissa tridactyla). Initially this closure seemed to be beneficial for kittiwakes with breeding success recovering to pre-fishery levels. However, despite the ban continuing, kittiwakes and many other seabird species in the North Sea suffered severe breeding failures in 2004. In this paper, we test the predictive power of four previously established correlations between kittiwake breeding success and climatic/trophic variables to explain the observed breeding success at the Isle of May in 2004. During the breeding season, kittiwakes at this colony switch from feeding on 1+ group to 0 group sandlance, and results up until 2003 indicated that availability of both age classes had a positive effect on kittiwake breeding success. The low breeding success of kittiwakes in 2004 was consistent with the late appearance and small body size of 0 group sandlance, but at odds with the two variables likely to operate via 1 group availability (lagged winter sea surface temperature and larval sandlance cohort strength in 2003). The reason for the discrepancy is currently unknown, but analysis of 1 group sandlance body composition indicated that lipid content in 2004 was extremely low, and thus fish eaten by kittiwakes during pre-breeding and early incubation were likely to be of poor quality. Monitoring of reproductive success of kittiwakes, although useful, was clearly not sufficient to tease apart the complex causation underlying the 2004 event. Monitoring programs such as this, therefore, need to be complemented by detailed research to identify the mechanisms involved, and to attribute and predict the effects of natural and human-induced environmental change.

Projecting marine fish production and catch potential in Bangladesh in the 21st century under long-term environmental change and management scenarios

The fisheries sector is crucial to the Bangladeshi economy and wellbeing, accounting for 4.4% of national Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and 22.8% of agriculture sector production, and supplying ca.60% of the national animal protein intake. Fish is vital to the 16 million Bangladeshis living near the coast, a number that has doubled since the 1980s. Here we develop and apply tools to project the long term productive capacity of Bangladesh marine fisheries under climate and fisheries management scenarios, based on downscaling a global climate model, using associated river flow and nutrient loading estimates, projecting high resolution changes in physical and biochemical ocean properties, and eventually projecting fish production and catch potential under different fishing mortality targets. We place particular interest on Hilsa shad (Tenualosa ilisha), which accounts for ca.11% of total catches, and Bombay duck (Harpadon nehereus), a low price fish that is the second highest catch in Bangladesh and is highly consumed by low income communities. It is concluded that the impacts of climate change, under greenhouse emissions scenario A1B, are likely to reduce the potential fish production in the Bangladesh Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) by less than 10%. However, these impacts are larger for the two target species. Under sustainable management practices we expect Hilsa shad catches to show a minor decline in potential catch by 2030 but a significant (25%) decline by 2060. However, if overexploitation is allowed catches are projected to fall much further, by almost 95% by 2060, compared to the Business as Usual scenario for the start of the 21st century. For Bombay duck, potential catches by 2060 under sustainable scenarios will produce a decline of less than 20% compared to current catches. The results demonstrate that management can mitigate or exacerbate the effects of climate change on ecosystem productivity.

Mire ontogeny, environmental and climate change inferred from fossil beetle successions from Hatfield Moors, eastern England

Results of a fossil Coleoptera (beetle) fauna from a fen edge sequence from Hatfield Moors, Humberhead Levels, are presented. Mire ontogeny inferred from this location and others are discussed, particularly in the light of previous palynological and plant macrofossil investigations. Peat initiation across most of the site centres around 3000 cal BC, characterised by a Calluna-Eriophorum heath with areas of Pinus-Betula woodland. The onset of peat accumulation on the southern margins of the site was delayed until 1520-1390 cal BC and appears to overlap closely with a recurrence surface at a pollen site (HAT 2) studied by Brian Smith (1985, 2002) dated to 1610-1440 cal BC, suggesting that increased surface wetness may have caused mire expansion at this time. The faunas illustrate the transition from eutrophic and mesotrophic fen to ombrotrophic raised mire, although the significance of both Pinus- and Calluna-indicating species through the sequence suggests that heath habitats may have continued to be important. Elsewhere, this earlier phase of rich fen is lacking and mesotrophic mire developed immediately above nutrient poor sands, with ombrotrophic conditions indicated soon after. Correspondence analysis of the faunas provides valuable insights into the importance of sandy heath habitats on Hatfield Moors. The continuing influence of the underlying coversands suggests these may have been instrumental in mire ontogeny. The research highlights the usefulness of using Coleoptera to assess mire ontogeny, fluctuations in site hydrology and vegetation cover, particularly when used in conjunction with other peatland proxies. The significance of a suite of extinct beetle species is discussed with reference to forest history and climate change.

A Holocene record of human induced and natural environmental change from Lake Forsyth (Te Wairewa), New Zealand

A 1.2 m sediment core from Lake Forsyth, Canterbury, New Zealand, records the development of the catchment/lake system over the last 7000 years, and its response to anthropogenic disturbance following European settlement c. 1840 AD. Pollen was used to reconstruct catchment vegetation history, while foraminifera, chironomids, Trichoptera, and the abundance of Pediastrum simplex colonies were used to infer past environmental conditions within the lake. The basal 30 cm of core records the transition of the Lake Forsyth Basin from a tidal embayment to a brackish coastal lake. Timing of closure of the lake mouth could not be accurately determined, but it appears that Lake Forsyth had stabilised as a slightly brackish, oligo mesotrophic shallow lake by about 500 years BP. Major deforestation occurred on Banks Peninsula between 1860 AD and 1890 AD. This deforestation is marked by the rapid decline in the main canopy trees (Prumnopitys taxifolia (matai) and Podocarpus totara/hallii (totara/mountain totara), an increase in charcoal, and the appearance of grasses. At around 1895 AD, pine appears in the record while a willow (Salix spp.) appears somewhat later. Redundancy analysis (RDA) of the pollen and aquatic species data revealed a significant relationship between regional vegetation and the abundance of aquatic taxa, with the percentage if disturbance pollen explaining most (14.8%) of the constrained variation in the aquatic species data. Principle components analysis (PCA) of aquatic species data revealed that the most significant period of rapid biological change in the lakes history corresponded to the main period of human disturbance in the catchment. Deforestation led to increased sediment and nutrient input into the lake which was accompanied by a major reduction in salinity. These changes are inferred from the appearance and proliferation of freshwater algae (Pediastrum simplex), an increase in abundance and diversity of chironomids, and the abundance of cases and remains from the larvae of the caddisfly, Oecetis unicolor. Eutrophication accompanied by increasing salinity of the lake is inferred from a significant peak and then decline of P. simplex, and a reduction in the abundance and diversity of aquatic invertebrates. The artificial opening of the lake to the Pacific Ocean, which began in the late 1800s, is the likely cause of the recent increase in salinity. An increase in salinity may have also encouraged blooms of the halotolerant and hepatotoxic cyanobacteria Nodularia spumigena.

New Zealand chironomids as proxies for human-induced and natural environmental change: Transfer functionsfor temperature and lake production (chlorophyll a)

The analysis of chironomid taxa and environmental datasets from 46 New Zealand lakes identified temperature (February mean air temperature) and lake production (chlorophyll a (Chl a)) as the main drivers of chironomid distribution. Temperature was the strongest driver of chironomid distribution and consequently produced the most robust inference models. We present two possible temperature transfer functions from this dataset. The most robust model (weighted averaging-partial least squares (WA-PLS), n = 36) was based on a dataset with the most productive (Chl a > 10 lg l)1) lakes removed. This model produced a coefficient of determination (r2 jack) of 0.77, and a root mean squared error of prediction (RMSEPjack) of 1.31C. The Chl a transfer function (partial least squares (PLS), n = 37) was far less reliable, with an r2 jack of 0.49 and an RMSEPjack of 0.46 Log10lg l)1. Both of these transfer functions could be improved by a revision of the taxonomy for the New Zealand chironomid taxa, particularly the genus Chironomus. The Chironomus morphotype was common in high altitude, cool, oligotrophic lakes and lowland, warm, eutrophic lakes. This could reflect the widespread distribution of one eurythermic species, or the collective distribution of a number of different Chironomus species with more limited tolerances. The Chl a transfer function could also be improved by inputting mean Chl a values into the inference model rather than the spot measurements that were available for this study.