Climate savvy grazing (Developing improved grazing and related practices to assist beef production enterprises across northern Australia to adapt to a changing and more variable climate)

There is uncertainty over the potential changes to rainfall across northern Australia under climate change. Since rainfall is a key driver of pasture growth, cattle numbers and the resulting animal productivity and beef business profitability, the ability to anticipate possible management strategies within such uncertainty is crucial. The Climate Savvy Grazing project used existing research, expert knowledge and computer modelling to explore the best-bet management strategies within best, median and worse-case future climate scenarios. All three scenarios indicated changes to the environment and resources upon which the grazing industry of northern Australia depends. Well-adapted management strategies under a changing climate are very similar to best practice within current climatic conditions. Maintaining good land condition builds resource resilience, maximises opportunities under higher rainfall years and reduces the risk of degradation during drought and failed wet seasons. Matching stocking rate to the safe long-term carrying capacity of the land is essential; reducing stock numbers in response to poor seasons and conservatively increasing stock numbers in response to better seasons generally improves profitability and maintains land in good condition. Spelling over the summer growing season will improve land condition under a changing climate as it does under current conditions. Six regions were included within the project. Of these, the Victoria River District in the Northern Territory, Gulf country of Queensland and the Kimberley region of Western Australia had projections of similar or higher than current rainfall and the potential for carrying capacity to increase. The Alice Springs, Maranoa-Balonne and Fitzroy regions had projections of generally drying conditions and the greatest risk of reduced pasture growth and carrying capacity. Encouraging producers to consider and act on the risks, opportunities and management options inherent in climate change was a key goal of the project. More than 60,000 beef producers, advisors and stakeholders are now more aware of the management strategies which build resource resilience, and that resilience helps buffer against the effects of variable and changing climatic conditions. Over 700 producers have stated they have improved confidence, skills and knowledge to attempt new practices to build resilience. During the course of the project, more than 165 beef producers reported they have implemented changes to build resource and business resilience.

Nitrification (DMPP) and urease (NBPT) inhibitors had no effect on pasture yield, nitrous oxide emissions nor nitrate leaching under irrigation in a hot-dry climate

Modern dairy farming in Australia relies on substantial inputs of fertiliser nitrogen (N) to underpin economic production. However, N lost from dairy systems represents an opportunity cost and can pose a number of environmental risks. Nitrogen cycle inhibitors can be co-applied with N fertilisers to slow the conversion of urea to NH4+ to reduce losses via volatilisation, and slow the conversion of NH4+ to NO3- to minimize leaching of NO3- and gaseous losses via nitrification and denitrification. In a field campaign in a high input ryegrass-kikuyu pasture system we compared the soil N pools, losses and pasture production between a) urea coated with the nitrification inhibitor (3,4-dimethyl pyrazole phosphate - DMPP) b) urea coated with the urease inhibitor (N-(n-butyl) thiophosphoric triamide - NBPT) and c) standard urea. There was no treatment effect (P>0.05) on soil mineral N, pasture yield, N2O flux nor leaching of NO3- cf. standard urea. We hypothesise that at our site, because gaseous losses were highly episodic (rainfall was erratic and displayed no seasonal rainfall nor soil wetting pattern) that there was a lack of coincidence of N application and conditions conducive to gaseous losses, thus the effectiveness of the inhibitor products was minimal and did not result in an increase in pasture yield. There remains a paucity of knowledge on N cycle inhibitors in relation to their effective use in field system to increase N use efficiency. Further research is required to define under what field conditions inhibitor products are effective in order to be able to provide accurate advice to managers of nitrogen in production systems.

Climate change induced risk in water quality control problems

A modeling framework is presented in this paper, integrating hydrologic scenarios projected from a General Circulation Model (GCM) with a water quality simulation model to quantify the future expected risk. Statistical downscaling with a Canonical Correlation Analysis (CCA) is carried out to develop the future scenarios of hydro-climate variables starting with simulations provided by a GCM. A Multiple Logistic Regression (MLR) is used to quantify the risk of Low Water Quality (LWQ) corresponding to a threshold quality level, by considering the streamflow and water temperature as explanatory variables. An Imprecise Fuzzy Waste Load Allocation Model (IFWLAM) presented in an earlier study is then used to develop adaptive policies to address the projected water quality risks. Application of the proposed methodology is demonstrated with the case study of Tunga-Bhadra river in India. The results showed that the projected changes in the hydro-climate variables tend to diminish DO levels, thus increasing the future risk levels of LWQ. (C) 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Assessing Indian cities for vulnerability to climate change

This paper critically evaluates the vulnerability of Indian cities to climate change in the context of sustainable development. City-scale indicators are developed for multiple dimensions of security and vulnerability. Factor analysis is employed to construct a vulnerability ranking of 46 major Indian cities. The analysis reveals that high aggregate levels of wealth do not necessarily make a city less vulnerable. Two, cities with diversified economic opportunities could adapt better to the new risks posed by climate change, than cities with unipolar opportunities. Three, highly polluted cities are more vulnerable to the health impacts of climate change, and cities with severe groundwater depletion will find it difficult to cope with increased rainfall variability. Policy and sustainability issues are discussed for these results.

Bioenergy and climate change mitigation: an assessment

Bioenergy deployment offers significant potential for climate change mitigation, but also carries considerable risks. In this review, we bring together perspectives of various communities involved in the research and regulation of bioenergy deployment in the context of climate change mitigation: Land-use and energy experts, land-use and integrated assessment modelers, human geographers, ecosystem researchers, climate scientists and two different strands of life-cycle assessment experts. We summarize technological options, outline the state-of-the-art knowledge on various climate effects, provide an update on estimates of technical resource potential and comprehensively identify sustainability effects. Cellulosic feedstocks, increased end-use efficiency, improved land carbon-stock management and residue use, and, when fully developed, BECCS appear as the most promising options, depending on development costs, implementation, learning, and risk management. Combined heat and power, efficient biomass cookstoves and small-scale power generation for rural areas can help to promote energy access and sustainable development, along with reduced emissions. We estimate the sustainable technical potential as up to 100EJ: high agreement; 100-300EJ: medium agreement; above 300EJ: low agreement. Stabilization scenarios indicate that bioenergy may supply from 10 to 245EJyr(-1) to global primary energy supply by 2050. Models indicate that, if technological and governance preconditions are met, large-scale deployment (>200EJ), together with BECCS, could help to keep global warming below 2 degrees degrees of preindustrial levels; but such high deployment of land-intensive bioenergy feedstocks could also lead to detrimental climate effects, negatively impact ecosystems, biodiversity and livelihoods. The integration of bioenergy systems into agriculture and forest landscapes can improve land and water use efficiency and help address concerns about environmental impacts. We conclude that the high variability in pathways, uncertainties in technological development and ambiguity in political decision render forecasts on deployment levels and climate effects very difficult. However, uncertainty about projections should not preclude pursuing beneficial bioenergy options.

Global Climate Change Impacts in the United States: a state of knowledge report from the U.S. Global Change Research Program

Executive Summary: Observations show that warming of the climate is unequivocal. The global warming observed over the past 50 years is due primarily to human-induced emissions of heat-trapping gases. These emissions come mainly from the burning of fossil fuels (coal, oil, and gas), with important contributions from the clearing of forests, agricultural practices, and other activities. Warming over this century is projected to be considerably greater than over the last century. The global average temperature since 1900 has risen by about 1.5ºF. By 2100, it is projected to rise another 2 to 11.5ºF. The U.S. average temperature has risen by a comparable amount and is very likely to rise more than the global average over this century, with some variation from place to place. Several factors will determine future temperature increases. Increases at the lower end of this range are more likely if global heat-trapping gas emissions are cut substantially. If emissions continue to rise at or near current rates, temperature increases are more likely to be near the upper end of the range. Volcanic eruptions or other natural variations could temporarily counteract some of the human-induced warming, slowing the rise in global temperature, but these effects would only last a few years. Reducing emissions of carbon dioxide would lessen warming over this century and beyond. Sizable early cuts in emissions would significantly reduce the pace and the overall amount of climate change. Earlier cuts in emissions would have a greater effect in reducing climate change than comparable reductions made later. In addition, reducing emissions of some shorter-lived heat-trapping gases, such as methane, and some types of particles, such as soot, would begin to reduce warming within weeks to decades. Climate-related changes have already been observed globally and in the United States. These include increases in air and water temperatures, reduced frost days, increased frequency and intensity of heavy downpours, a rise in sea level, and reduced snow cover, glaciers, permafrost, and sea ice. A longer ice-free period on lakes and rivers, lengthening of the growing season, and increased water vapor in the atmosphere have also been observed. Over the past 30 years, temperatures have risen faster in winter than in any other season, with average winter temperatures in the Midwest and northern Great Plains increasing more than 7ºF. Some of the changes have been faster than previous assessments had suggested. These climate-related changes are expected to continue while new ones develop. Likely future changes for the United States and surrounding coastal waters include more intense hurricanes with related increases in wind, rain, and storm surges (but not necessarily an increase in the number of these storms that make landfall), as well as drier conditions in the Southwest and Caribbean. These changes will affect human health, water supply, agriculture, coastal areas, and many other aspects of society and the natural environment. This report synthesizes information from a wide variety of scientific assessments (see page 7) and recently published research to summarize what is known about the observed and projected consequences of climate change on the United States. It combines analysis of impacts on various sectors such as energy, water, and transportation at the national level with an assessment of key impacts on specific regions of the United States. For example, sea-level rise will increase risks of erosion, storm surge damage, and flooding for coastal communities, especially in the Southeast and parts of Alaska. Reduced snowpack and earlier snow melt will alter the timing and amount of water supplies, posing significant challenges for water resource management in the West. (PDF contains 196 pages)

Coastal brownfields and adaptation to climate change: Discussions on potential hazards from contaminated groundwater displacement due to saltwater incursion

Toxic-waste associated with coastal brownfield sites can pose serious risks to human and environmental health. In light of anticipated sea-level rise (SLR) due to global climate change, coastal brownfields require heightened attention. The primary intent of this study is to pose questions and encourage discussion of this problem among policy makers. Impacts from SLR on coastal zones are examined within a brownfield policy framework and, current coastal brownfield policy discussions with respect to SLR are also examined. (PDF contains 4 pages)

Integrating climate change impacts to improve understanding of coastal climate change: heavy rains, strong winds, and high seas in coastal Hawaii, Alaska and the Pacific Northwest

Coastal storms, and the strong winds, heavy rains, and high seas that accompany them pose a serious threat to the lives and livelihoods of the peoples of the Pacific basin, from the tropics to the high latitudes. To reduce their vulnerability to the economic, social, and environmental risks associated with these phenomena (and correspondingly enhance their resiliency), decision-makers in coastal communities require timely access to accurate information that affords them an opportunity to plan and respond accordingly. This includes information about the potential for coastal flooding, inundation and erosion at time scales ranging from hours to years, as well as the longterm climatological context of this information. The Pacific Storms Climatology Project (PSCP) was formed in 2006 with the intent of improving scientific understanding of patterns and trends of storm frequency and intensity - “storminess”- and related impacts of these extreme events. The project is currently developing a suite of integrated information products that can be used by emergency managers, mitigation planners, government agencies and decision-makers in key sectors, including: water and natural resource management, agriculture and fisheries, transportation and communication, and recreation and tourism. The PSCP is exploring how the climate-related processes that govern extreme storm events are expressed within and between three primary thematic areas: heavy rains, strong winds, and high seas. To address these thematic areas, PSCP has focused on developing analyses of historical climate records collected throughout the Pacific region, and the integration of these climatological analyses with near-real time observations to put recent weather and climate events into a longer-term perspective.(PDF contains 4 pages)

Using climate extension to assist coastal decision-makers with climate adaptation

Coastal managers need accessible, trusted, tailored resources to help them interpret climate information, identify vulnerabilities, and apply climate information to decisions about adaptation on regional and local levels. For decades, climate scientists have studied the impacts that short term natural climate variability and long term climate change will have on coastal systems. For example, recent estimates based on Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) warming scenarios suggest that global sea levels may rise 0.5 to 1.4 meters above 1990 levels by 2100 (Rahmstorf 2007; Grinsted, Moore, and Jevrejeva 2009). Many low-lying coastal ecosystems and communities will experience more frequent salt water intrusion events, more frequent coastal flooding, and accelerated erosion rates before they experience significant inundation. These changes will affect the ways coastal managers make decisions, such as timing surface and groundwater withdrawals, replacing infrastructure, and planning for changing land use on local and regional levels. Despite the advantages, managers’ use of scientific information about climate variability and change remains limited in environmental decision-making (Dow and Carbone 2007). Traditional methods scientists use to disseminate climate information, like peer-reviewed journal articles and presentations at conferences, are inappropriate to fill decision-makers’ needs for applying accessible, relevant climate information to decision-making. General guides that help managers scope out vulnerabilities and risks are becoming more common; for example, Snover et al. (2007) outlines a basic process for local and state governments to assess climate change vulnerability and preparedness. However, there are few tools available to support more specific decision-making needs. A recent survey of coastal managers in California suggests that boundary institutions can help to fill the gaps between climate science and coastal decision-making community (Tribbia and Moser 2008). The National Sea Grant College Program, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA) university-based program for supporting research and outreach on coastal resource use and conservation, is one such institution working to bridge these gaps through outreach. Over 80% of Sea Grant’s 32 programs are addressing climate issues, and over 60% of programs increased their climate outreach programming between 2006 and 2008 (National Sea Grant Office 2008). One way that Sea Grant is working to assist coastal decision-makers with using climate information is by developing effective methods for coastal climate extension. The purpose of this paper is to discuss climate extension methodologies on regional scales, using the Carolinas Coastal Climate Outreach Initiative (CCCOI) as an example of Sea Grant’s growing capacities for climate outreach and extension. (PDF contains 3 pages)

Warning to navigators: IPCC report on climate change mitigation

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Building social and ecological resilience to climate change in Roviana, Solomon Islands: PASAP country activity for Solomon Islands: Brief review: climate change trends and projections for Solomon Islands

As part of the Australian Government’s International Climate Change Adaptation Initiative (ICCAI), the Pacific Adaptation Strategy Assistance Program (PASAP) aims to enhance the capacity of partner countries to assess key vulnerabilities and risks, formulate adaptation strategies and plans, mainstream adaptation into decision-making, and inform robust longterm national planning and decision-making in partner countries. The Department of Climate Change and Energy Efficiency contracted University of Queensland (UQ) and University of California, Santa Barbara (UCSB) to lead the project: “Building social and ecological resilience to climate change in Roviana, Solomon Islands” (2010-2012). Under this project The WorldFish Center was subcontracted to undertake outputs 5 and 6 of Objective three: (5) Review of climate change evidence and projections for the study area and (6) Vulnerability and adaptation assessment for the study area. This report addresses the first of these and comprises a desktop review of climate change evidence and projections for the study area.

Implications of using On-Farm Flood Flow Capture to recharge groundwater and mitigate flood risks along the Kings River, CA

Two large hydrologic issues face the Kings Basin, severe and chronic overdraft of about 0.16M ac-ft annually, and flood risks along the Kings River and the downstream San Joaquin River. Since 1983, these floods have caused over $1B in damage in today’s dollars. Capturing flood flows of sufficient volume could help address these two pressing issues which are relevant to many regions of the Central Valley and will only be exacerbated with climate change. However, the Kings River has high variability associated with flow magnitudes which suggests that standard engineering approaches and acquisition of sufficient acreage through purchase and easements to capture and recharge flood waters would not be cost effective. An alternative approach investigated in this study, termed On-Farm Flood Flow Capture, involved leveraging large areas of private farmland to capture flood flows for both direct and in lieu recharge. This study investigated the technical and logistical feasibility of best management practices (BMPs) associated with On-Farm Flood Flow Capture. The investigation was conducted near Helm, CA, about 20 miles west of Fresno, CA. The experimental design identified a coordinated plan to determine infiltration rates for different soil series and different crops; develop a water budget for water applied throughout the program and estimate direct and in lieu recharge; provide a preliminary assessment of potential water quality impacts; assess logistical issues associated with implementation; and provide an economic summary of the program. At check locations, we measured average infiltration rates of 4.2 in/d for all fields and noted that infiltration rates decreased asymptotically over time to about 2 – 2.5 in/d. Rates did not differ significantly between the different crops and soils tested, but were found to be about an order of magnitude higher in one field. At a 2.5 in/d infiltration rate, 100 acres are required to infiltrate 10 CFS of captured flood flows. Water quality of applied flood flows from the Kings River had concentrations of COC (constituents of concern; i.e. nitrate, electrical conductivity or EC, phosphate, ammonium, total dissolved solids or TDS) one order of magnitude or more lower than for pumped groundwater at Terranova Ranch and similarly for a broader survey of regional groundwater. Applied flood flows flushed the root zone and upper vadose zone of nitrate and salts, leading to much lower EC and nitrate concentrations to a depth of 8 feet when compared to fields in which more limited flood flows were applied or for which drip irrigation with groundwater was the sole water source. In demonstrating this technology on the farm, approximately 3,100 ac-ft was diverted, primarily from April through mid-July, with about 70% towards in lieu and 30% towards direct recharge. Substantial flood flow volumes were applied to alfalfa, wine grapes and pistachio fields. A subset of those fields, primarily wine grapes and pistachios, were used primarily to demonstrate direct recharge. For those fields about 50 – 75% of water applied was calculated going to direct recharge. Data from the check studies suggests more flood flows could have been applied and infiltrated, effectively driving up the amount of water towards direct recharge. Costs to capture flood flows for in lieu and direct recharge for this project were low compared to recharge costs for other nearby systems and in comparison to irrigating with groundwater. Moreover, the potentially high flood capture capacity of this project suggests significant flood avoidance costs savings to downstream communities along the Kings and San Joaquin Rivers. Our analyses for Terranova Ranch suggest that allocating 25% or more flood flow water towards in lieu recharge and the rest toward direct recharge will result in an economically sustainable recharge approach paid through savings from reduced groundwater pumping. Two important issues need further consideration. First, these practices are likely to leach legacy salts and nitrates from the unsaturated zone into groundwater. We develop a conceptual model of EC movement through the unsaturated zone and estimated through mass balance calculations that approximately 10 kilograms per square meter of salts will be flushed into the groundwater through displacing 12 cubic meters per square meter of unsaturated zone pore water. This flux would increase groundwater salinity but an equivalent amount of water added subsequently is predicted as needed to return to current groundwater salinity levels. All subsequent flood flow capture and recharge is expected to further decrease groundwater salinity levels. Second, the project identified important farm-scale logistical issues including irrigator training; developing cropping plans to integrate farming and recharge activities; upgrading conveyance; and quantifying results. Regional logistical issues also exist related to conveyance, integration with agricultural management, economics, required acreage and Operation and Maintenance (O&M).

Building climate-resilient food systems for Pacific Islands

The countries and territories of the Pacific Islands face many challenges in building the three main pillars of food security: availability, access and appropriate use of nutritious food. These challenges arise from factors including rapid population growth and urbanization, shortages of arable land for farming and the availability of cheap, low-quality foods. As a result, many are now highly dependent on imported food, and the incidence of non-communicable diseases in the region is among the highest in the world. This report summarizes: 1) the projected effects of climate change on agriculture, fisheries and aquaculture in the Pacific region; 2) adaptations and supporting policies needed to reduce risks to food production; 3) gaps in knowledge that must be filled in order to implement the adaptations effectively; 4) recommendations to fill these knowledge gaps.

Climate change, water resources, and the politics of adaptation in the Middle East and North Africa

Through an examination of global climate change models combined with hydrological data on deteriorating water quality in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA), we elucidate the ways in which the MENA countries are vulnerable to climate-induced impacts on water resources. Adaptive governance strategies, however, remain a low priority for political leaderships in the MENA region. To date, most MENA governments have concentrated the bulk of their resources on large-scale supply side projects such as desalination, dam construction, inter-basin water transfers, tapping fossil groundwater aquifers, and importing virtual water. Because managing water demand, improving the efficiency of water use, and promoting conservation will be key ingredients in responding to climate-induced impacts on the water sector, we analyze the political, economic, and institutional drivers that have shaped governance responses. While the scholarly literature emphasizes the importance of social capital to adaptive governance, we find that many political leaders and water experts in the MENA rarely engage societal actors in considering water risks. We conclude that the key capacities for adaptive governance to water scarcity in MENA are underdeveloped. © 2010 Springer Science+Business Media B.V.

Climate change and food safety: A review

Climate change and variability may have an impact on the occurrence of food safety hazards at various stages of the food chain, from primary production through to consumption. There are multiple pathways through which climate related factors may impact food safety including: changes in temperature and precipitation patterns, increased frequency and intensity of extreme weather events, ocean warming and acidification, and changes in contaminants’ transport pathways among others. Climate change may also affect socio-economic aspects related to food systems such as agriculture, animal production, global trade, demographics and human behaviour which all influence food safety. This paper reviews the potential impacts of predicted changes in climate on food contamination and food safety at various stages of the food chain and identifies adaptation strategies and research priorities to address food safety implications of climate change. The paper concludes that there is a need for intersectoral and international cooperation to better understand the changing food safety situation and in developing and implementing adaptation strategies to address emerging risks associated with climate change.