EU Policy on Climate Change Mitigation since Copenhagen and the Economic Crisis. CEPS Working Document No. 380, 5 March 2013

The EU has long assumed leadership in advancing domestic and international climate change policy. While pushing its partners in international negotiations, it has led the way in implementing a host of domestic measures, including a unilateral and legally binding target, an ambitious policy on renewable energy and a strategy for low-carbon technology deployment. The centrepiece of EU policy, however, has been the EU Emissions Trading System (ETS), a cap-and-trade programme launched in 2005. The ETS has been seen as a tool to ensure least-cost abatement, drive EU decarbonisation and develop a global carbon market. After an initial review and revision of the ETS, to come into force in 2013, there was a belief that the new ETS was ‘future-proof’, meaning able to cope with the temporary lack of a global agreement on climate change and individual countries’ emission ceilings. This confidence has been shattered by the simultaneous ‘failure’ of Copenhagen to deliver a clear prospect of a global (top-down) agreement and the economic crisis. The lack of prospects for national caps at the international level has led to a situation whereby many member states hesitate to pursue ambitious climate change policies. In the midst of this, the EU is assessing its options anew. A number of promising areas for international cooperation exist, all centred on the need to ‘raise the ambition level’ of GHG emission reductions, notably in aviation and maritime, short-lived climate pollutions, deforestation, industrial competitiveness and green growth. Public policy issues in the field of technology and its transfer will require more work to identify real areas for cooperation.

Mitigation and adaptation to climate change

Climate change produces significant social and economic impacts in most parts of the world, thus global action is needed to address climate change. In this chapter, the different possibilities of mitigation are explored from different points of view, and analyse the possibilities of adaptation to climate change. First, substantial reduction of GHG emission is needed, on the other hand adaptation action must deal with the inevitable impacts. According to the assessment of the chapter, it is essential that coordinated actions be taken at an EU level. In our argumentation, a macroeconomic model is used for the cost- benefit analysis of GHG gas emissions reduction. The GHG emission structure is analysed on European and global level. Even in the case of a successful mitigation strategy there rest the long-term effects of climate change which will need a coherent adaptation strategy to be dealt with. Although certain adaptation measures already have been taken, these initiatives are still very modest, and insufficient to deal with the economic effects of climate change properly.

Mitigation and Adaptation to Climate Change

Climate change affects both economy and society in several ways throughout the world. Therefore, well-targeted global and regional actions must be taken. In this paper I assess the different options for climate change mitigation policies and analyse the possibilities of adaptation methods. I will focus on three aspects: cost-efficiency, innovation and flexibility.

Bioenergy and climate change mitigation : an assessment

Date of Acceptance: 08/05/2014 Acknowledgements The authors are indebted to Julia Römer for assisting with editing several hundred references. Helmut Haberl gratefully acknowledges funding by the Austrian Academy of Sciences (Global Change Programme), the Austrian Ministry of Science and Research (BMWF, proVision programme) as well as by the EU-FP7 project VOLANTE. Carmenza Robledo-Abad received financial support from the Swiss State Secretariat for Economic Affairs.

Bioenergy and climate change mitigation : an assessment

Date of Acceptance: 08/05/2014 Acknowledgements The authors are indebted to Julia Römer for assisting with editing several hundred references. Helmut Haberl gratefully acknowledges funding by the Austrian Academy of Sciences (Global Change Programme), the Austrian Ministry of Science and Research (BMWF, proVision programme) as well as by the EU-FP7 project VOLANTE. Carmenza Robledo-Abad received financial support from the Swiss State Secretariat for Economic Affairs.

Fishers’ perception on livelihood strategies, adaptation and mitigation measures to cope with changes in climate variables around Lake Wamala, Uganda

Fisheries support livelihoods but are threatened by climate variability and change which intensified since the 1970s. This study used quantitative and qualitative methods to determine the extent to which fishers around Lake Wamala in Uganda were copying with perceived changes in climate variables and the impacts on their livelihoods, to generate knowledge to enable the fishers increase resilience and sustain their livelihoods. Fishers were aware of changes in climate manifested by unpredictable seasons, floods and droughts. Fishing was the main livelihood activity. The African catfish had replaced Nile tilapia as the dominant fish species. There was damage and loss of gear, boats, landing sites and lives, and changes in fish catches and sizes, income and fish consumption during the perceived floods and droughts. The fishers adapted to the changes through increasing time on fishing grounds and changing target species and fishing gears but innovative ones diversified to high value crops and livestock which increased their income beyond what was earned from fishing thus acting as an incentive for some of them to quit fishing. Diversification to non-fishery activities as a form of adaptation was enhanced by membership to social groups, weekly fishing days, fishing experience and age of fishers but its benefits were not equally shared among men and women. Mitigation measures included planting trees, mulching gardens and protecting wetlands. Adaptation and mitigation measures were constrained by limited credit, awareness and land. The required interventions included improving access to credit, irrigation facilities and appropriate planting materials and raising awareness. The study showed that the fishers were aware of changes in climatic variables and the impacts on their livelihoods. There were also adaptation and mitigation measures practiced by the fishers which if promoted and their constraints addressed, could increase resilience of fishers to climatic change and sustain their livelihoods.

Developing European operational oceanography for Blue Growth, climate change adaptation and mitigation, and ecosystem-based management

Operational approaches have been more and more widely developed and used for providing marine data and information services for different socio-economic sectors of the Blue Growth and to advance knowledge about the marine environment. The objective of operational oceanographic research is to develop and improve the efficiency, timeliness, robustness and product quality of this approach. This white paper aims to address key scientific challenges and research priorities for the development of operational oceanography in Europe for the next 5-10 years. Knowledge gaps and deficiencies are identified in relation to common scientific challenges in four EuroGOOS knowledge areas: European Ocean Observations, Modelling and Forecasting Technology, Coastal Operational Oceanography and Operational Ecology. The areas "European Ocean Observations" and "Modelling and Forecasting Technology" focus on the further advancement of the basic instruments and capacities for European operational oceanography, while "Coastal Operational Oceanography" and "Operational Ecology" aim at developing new operational approaches for the corresponding knowledge areas.

From carbon markets to carbon morality: creative compounds as framing devices in online discourses on climate change mitigation

Lexical combinations of at least two roots around "carbon" as the hub, such as "carbon finance" or "carbon footprint," have recently become ubiquitous in English-speaking science, politics, and mass media. They are part of a new language evolving around the issue of climate change that can reveal how it is framed by various stakeholders. In this article, the authors study the role of these "carbon compounds" as tools of communication in different online discourses on climate change mitigation. By combining a quantitative analysis of their occurrences with a qualitative analysis of the contexts in which the compounds were used, the authors identify three clusters of compounds focused on finance, lifestyle, and attitudes and elucidate the communicative purposes to which they were put between the 1990s and the early 21st century. This approach may open up new ways of analyzing the framings of climate change mitigation initiatives in the public sphere.

The Potential of Tariff Policy for Climate Change Mitigation: Legal and Economic Analysis

This paper addresses a potential role that tariffs and tariff policy can play in encouraging countries to take part in a multilateral effort to mitigate climate change. It begins by assessing whether increasing tariffs on products from energy intensive or polluting industries amounts to a violation of WTO rules and whether protectionism in this case can be differentiated from genuine environmental concerns. It then argues that while lowering tariffs for environmental goods can serve as a carrot to promote dissemination of cleaner technologies, tariff deconsolidation is a legitimate stick to encourage polluting countries to move towards an international climate agreement. The paper further explores this view by undertaking a partialequilibrium simulation analysis to examine the impact of a unilateral unit increase in tariffs on the imports of the most carbon-intensive products from countries not committed to climate polices. Our results suggest that the committed importing countries would have to raise their tariffs only slightly to effect a significant decline in the imports of these products from the non-committed countries. For instance, a unit increase in the simple average applied tariffs on the imports of these carbon-intensive products in 2005 from our sample of non-committed exporting countries would reduce the imports of these products by an average 32.6% in Australia, 178% in Canada, 195% in the EU, 271% in Japan and 62% in the US, therebysuggesting the effectiveness of such a measure in pushing countries towards a global climate policy.

Climate Change Adaptation Case Study: Benefit-Cost Analysis of Coastal Flooding Hazard Mitigation

The damage Hurricane Sandy caused had far-reaching repercussions up and down the East Coast of the United States. Vast coastal flooding accompanied the storm, inundating homes, businesses, and utility and emergency facilities. Since the storm, projects to mitigate similar future floods have been scrutinized. Such projects not only need to keep out floodwaters but also be designed to withstand the effect that climate change might have on rising sea levels and increased flood risk. In this study, we develop an economic model to assess the costs and benefits of a berm (sea wall) to mitigate the effects of flooding from a large storm. We account for the lifecycle costs of the project, which include those for the upfront construction of the berm, ongoing maintenance, land acquisition, and wetland and recreation zone construction. Benefits of the project include avoided fatalities, avoided residential and commercial damages, avoided utility and municipal damages, recreational and health benefits, avoided debris removal expenses, and avoided loss of function of key transportation and commercial infrastructure located in the area. Our estimate of the beneficial effects of the berm includes ecosystem services from wetlands and health benefits to the surrounding community from a park and nature system constructed along the berm. To account for the effects of climate change and verify that the project will maintain its effectiveness over the long term, we allow the risk of flooding to increase over time. Over our 50-year time horizon, we double the risk of 100- and 500-year flood events to account for the effects of sea level rise on coastal flooding. Based on the economic analysis, the project is highly cost beneficial over its 50-year timeframe. This analysis demonstrates that climate change adaptation investments can be cost beneficial even though they mitigate the impacts of low-probability, high-consequence events.

Low carbon systems for climate change mitigation and adaptation

Global warming and climate change have been among the most controversial topics after the industrial revolution. The main contributor to global warming is carbon dioxide (CO2), which increases the temperature by trapping heat in the atmosphere. Atmospheric CO2 concentration before the industrial era was around 280 ppm for a long period, while it has increased dramatically since the industrial revolution up to approximately 420 ppm. According to the Paris agreement it is needed to keep the temperature increase up to 2°C, preferably 1.5° C, to prevent reaching the tipping point of climate change. To keep the temperature increase below the range, it is required to find solutions to reduce CO2 emissions. The solutions can be low-carbon systems and transition from fossil fuels to renewable energy sources (RES). This thesis is allocated to the assessment of low-carbon systems and the reduction of CO2 by using RES instead of fossil fuels. One of the most important aspects to define the location and capacity of low-carbon systems is CO2 mass estimation. As mentioned, high-emission systems can be substituted by low-carbon systems. An example of high-emission systems is dredging. The global CO2 emission from dredging is relatively high which is associated with the growth of marine transport in addition to its high emission. Thus, ejectors system as alternative for dredging is investigated in chapter 2. For the transition from fossil fuels to RES, it is required to provide solutions for the RES storage problem. A solution could be zero-emission fuels such as hydrogen. However, the production of hydrogen requires electricity, and electricity production emits a large amount of CO2. Therefore, the last three chapters are allocated to hydrogen generation via electrolysis, at the current condition and scenarios of RES and variation of cell characteristics and stack materials, and its delivery.

Climate change impacts on portuguese energy system in 2050

Dissertação apresentada na Faculdade de Ciências e Tecnologia da Universidade Nova de Lisboa para a obtenção do grau de Mestre em Engenharia do Ambiente, perfil Gestão e Sistemas Ambientais

Global warming in Amazonia: impacts and Mitigation

Global warming has potentially catastrophic impacts in Amazonia, while at the same time maintenance of the Amazon forest offers one of the most valuable and cost-effective options for mitigating climate change. We know that the El Niño phenomenon, caused by temperature oscillations of surface water in the Pacific, has serious impacts in Amazonia, causing droughts and forest fires (as in 1997-1998). Temperature oscillations in the Atlantic also provoke severe droughts (as in 2005). We also know that Amazonian trees die both from fires and from water stress under hot, dry conditions. In addition, water recycled through the forest provides rainfall that maintains climatic conditions appropriate for tropical forest, especially in the dry season. What we need to know quickly, through intensified research, includes progress in representing El Niño and the Atlantic oscillations in climatic models, representation of biotic feedbacks in models used for decision-making about global warming, and narrowing the range of estimating climate sensitivity to reduce uncertainty about the probability of very severe impacts. Items that need to be negotiated include the definition of "dangerous" climate change, with the corresponding maximum levels of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. Mitigation of global warming must include maintaining the Amazon forest, which has benefits for combating global warming from two separate roles: cutting the flow the emissions of carbon each year from the rapid pace of deforestation, and avoiding emission of the stock of carbon in the remaining forest that can be released by various ways, including climate change itself. Barriers to rewarding forest maintenance include the need for financial rewards for both of these roles. Other needs are for continued reduction of uncertainty regarding emissions and deforestation processes, as well as agreement on the basis of carbon accounting. As one of the countries most subject to impacts of climate change, Brazil must assume the leadership in fighting global warming.

Climate change research and policy in Portugal

This article offers a review of research and policy on climate change in Portugal and is organized into three main themes: scientific knowledge and assessment of climate change; policy analysis and evaluation; and public engagement. Modern scientific research on meteorology and climatology started in Portugal in the 1950s and a strong community of researchers in climate science, vulnerabilities, impacts, and adaptation has since developed, particularly in the last decade. Nevertheless, there are still many gaps in research, especially regarding the economic costs of climate change in Portugal and costs and benefits of adaptation. Governmental policies with a strong emphasis on mitigation were introduced at the end of the 1990s. As greenhouse gas emissions continued to rise beyond its Kyoto target for 2012, the country had to resort to the Kyoto Flexibility Mechanisms in order to comply. Climate change adaptation policies were introduced in 2010 but are far from being fully implemented. Regarding public engagement with climate change, high levels of concern contrast with limited understanding and rather weak behavioral dispositions to address climate change. Citizens display a heavy reliance on the media as sources of information, which are dominated by a techno-managerial discourse mainly focused on the global level. The final part of the article identifies research gaps and outlines a research agenda. Connections between policy and research are also discussed

Investigating the long term planning framework for the Galway Bay community from climate change.

This research looked at the scientific evidence available on climate change and in particular, projections on sea level rise which ranged from 0.5m to 2m by the end of the century. These projections were then considered in an Irish context. A review of current policy in Ireland revealed that there was no dedicated Government policy on climate change or coastal zone management. In terms of spatial planning policy, it became apparent that there was little or no guidance on climate change either at a national, regional or local level. Therefore, to determine the likely impacts of sea level rise in Ireland based on current spatial planning practice and policy, a scenario-building exercise was carried out for two case study areas in Galway Bay. The two case study areas were: Oranmore, a densely populated town located to the east of Inner Galway Bay; and Tawin Island, a rural dispersed community, located to the south east of Inner Galway Bay. A ‘best’ and ‘worse’ case scenario was envisaged for both areas in terms of sea level rise. In the absence of specific climate change policies it was projected that in the ‘best’ case scenario of 0.5m sea level rise, Tawin Island would suffer serious and adverse impacts while Oranmore was likely to experience slight to moderate impacts. However, in the ‘worse’ case scenario of a 2m sea level rise, it was likely that Tawin Island would be abandoned while many houses, businesses and infrastructure built within the floodplain of Oranmore Bay would be inundated and permanently flooded. In this regard, it was the author’s opinion that a strategic and integrated climate change policy and adaptation plan is vital for the island of Ireland that recognises the importance of integrated land use and spatial planning in terms of mitigation and adaptation to climate change.