The number needed to treat to prevent mortality and cirrhosis-related complications among patients with cirrhosis and HCV genotype 1 infection

Cirrhotic patients with chronic hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection remain at risk for complications following sustained virological response (SVR). Therefore, we aimed to evaluate treatment efficacy with the number needed to treat (NNT) to prevent clinical endpoints. Mortality and cirrhosis-related morbidity were assessed in an international multicentre cohort of consecutively treated patients with HCV genotype 1 infection and cirrhosis. The NNT to prevent death or clinical disease progression (any cirrhosis-related event or death) in one patient was determined with the adjusted (event-free) survival among patients without SVR and adjusted hazard ratio of SVR. Overall, 248 patients were followed for a median of 8.3 (IQR 6.2-11.1) years. Fifty-nine (24%) patients attained SVR. Among patients without SVR, the adjusted 5-year survival and event-free survival were 94.4% and 80.0%, respectively. SVR was associated with reduced all-cause mortality (HR 0.15, 95% CI 0.05-0.48, P = 0.002) and clinical disease progression (HR 0.16, 95% CI 0.07-0.36, P < 0.001). The NNT to prevent one death in 5 years declined from 1052 (95% CI 937-1755) at 2% SVR (interferon monotherapy) to 61 (95% CI 54-101) at 35% SVR (peginterferon and ribavirin). At 50% SVR, which might be expected with triple therapy, the estimated NNT was 43 (95% CI 38-71). The NNT to prevent clinical disease progression in one patient in 5 years was 302 (95% CI 271-407), 18 (95% CI 16-24) and 13 (95% CI 11-17) at 2%, 35% and 50% SVR, respectively. In conclusion, the NNT to prevent clinical endpoints among cirrhotic patients with HCV genotype 1 has declined enormously with the improvement of antiviral therapy.

Effect of meal ingestion on liver stiffness in patients with cirrhosis and portal hypertension.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS Liver stiffness is increasingly used in the non-invasive evaluation of chronic liver diseases. Liver stiffness correlates with hepatic venous pressure gradient (HVPG) in patients with cirrhosis and holds prognostic value in this population. Hence, accuracy in its measurement is needed. Several factors independent of fibrosis influence liver stiffness, but there is insufficient information on whether meal ingestion modifies liver stiffness in cirrhosis. We investigated the changes in liver stiffness occurring after the ingestion of a liquid standard test meal in this population. METHODS In 19 patients with cirrhosis and esophageal varices (9 alcoholic, 9 HCV-related, 1 NASH; Child score 6.9±1.8), liver stiffness (transient elastography), portal blood flow (PBF) and hepatic artery blood flow (HABF) (Doppler-Ultrasound) were measured before and 30 minutes after receiving a standard mixed liquid meal. In 10 the HVPG changes were also measured. RESULTS Post-prandial hyperemia was accompanied by a marked increase in liver stiffness (+27±33%; p<0.0001). Changes in liver stiffness did not correlate with PBF changes, but directly correlated with HABF changes (r = 0.658; p = 0.002). After the meal, those patients showing a decrease in HABF (n = 13) had a less marked increase of liver stiffness as compared to patients in whom HABF increased (n = 6; +12±21% vs. +62±29%,p<0.0001). As expected, post-prandial hyperemia was associated with an increase in HVPG (n = 10; +26±13%, p = 0.003), but changes in liver stiffness did not correlate with HVPG changes. CONCLUSIONS Liver stiffness increases markedly after a liquid test meal in patients with cirrhosis, suggesting that its measurement should be performed in standardized fasting conditions. The hepatic artery buffer response appears an important factor modulating postprandial changes of liver stiffness. The post-prandial increase in HVPG cannot be predicted by changes in liver stiffness.

Acute-on-chronic liver failure is a distinct syndrome that develops in patients with acute decompensation of cirrhosis

BACKGROUND & AIMS Patients with cirrhosis hospitalized for an acute decompensation (AD) and organ failure are at risk for imminent death and considered to have acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF). However, there are no established diagnostic criteria for ACLF, so little is known about its development and progression. We aimed to identify diagnostic criteria of ACLF and describe the development of this syndrome in European patients with AD. METHODS We collected data from 1343 hospitalized patients with cirrhosis and AD from February to September 2011 at 29 liver units in 8 European countries. We used the organ failure and mortality data to define ACLF grades, assess mortality, and identify differences between ACLF and AD. We established diagnostic criteria for ACLF based on analyses of patients with organ failure (defined by the chronic liver failure-sequential organ failure assessment [CLIF-SOFA] score) and high 28-day mortality rate (>15%). RESULTS Of the patients assessed, 303 had ACLF when the study began, 112 developed ACLF, and 928 did not have ACLF. The 28-day mortality rate among patients who had ACLF when the study began was 33.9%, among those who developed ACLF was 29.7%, and among those who did not have ACLF was 1.9%. Patients with ACLF were younger and more frequently alcoholic, had more associated bacterial infections, and had higher numbers of leukocytes and higher plasma levels of C-reactive protein than patients without ACLF (P < .001). Higher CLIF-SOFA scores and leukocyte counts were independent predictors of mortality in patients with ACLF. In patients without a prior history of AD, ACLF was unexpectedly characterized by higher numbers of organ failures, leukocyte count, and mortality compared with ACLF in patients with a prior history of AD. CONCLUSIONS We analyzed data from patients with cirrhosis and AD to establish diagnostic criteria for ACLF and showed that it is distinct from AD, based not only on the presence of organ failure(s) and high mortality rate but also on age, precipitating events, and systemic inflammation. ACLF mortality is associated with loss of organ function and high leukocyte counts. ACLF is especially severe in patients with no prior history of AD.

Computed tomography findings in liver fibrosis and cirrhosis

Abstract PRINCIPLES: Computed tomography (CT) is inferior to the fibroscan and laboratory testing in the noninvasive diagnosis of liver fibrosis. On the other hand, CT is a frequently used diagnostic tool in modern medicine. The auxiliary finding of clinically occult liver fibrosis in CT scans could result in an earlier diagnosis. The aim of this study was to analyse quantifiable direct signs of liver remodelling in CT scans to depict liver fibrosis in a precirrhotic stage. METHODS: Retrospective review of 148 abdominal CT scans (80 liver cirrhosis, 35 precirrhotic fibrosis and 33 control patients). Fibrosis and cirrhosis were histologically proven. The diameters of the three main hepatic veins were measured 1-2 cm before their aperture into the inferior caval vein. The width of the caudate and the right hepatic lobe were divided, and measured horizontally at the level of the first bifurcation of the right portal vein in axial planes (caudate-right-lobe ratio). A combination of both (sum of liver vein diameters divided by the caudate-right lobe ratio) was defined as the ld/crl ratio. These metrics were analysed for the detection of liver fibrosis and cirrhosis. RESULTS: An ld/crl-r <24 showed a sensitivity of 83% and a specificity of 76% for precirrhotic liver fibrosis. Liver cirrhosis could be detected with a sensitivity of 88% and a specificity of 82% if ld/crl-r <20. CONCLUSION: An ld/crl-r <24 justifies laboratory testing and a fibroscan. This could bring forward the diagnosis and patients would profit from early treatment in a potentially reversible stage of disease.

Evaluation of genome-wide loci of iron metabolism in hereditary hemochromatosis identifies PCSK7 as a host risk factor of liver cirrhosis

Genome-wide association studies (GWAS) have revealed genetic determinants of iron metabolism, but correlation of these with clinical phenotypes is pending. Homozygosity for HFE C282Y is the predominant genetic risk factor for hereditary hemochromatosis (HH) and may cause liver cirrhosis. However, this genotype has a low penetrance. Thus, detection of yet unknown genetic markers that identify patients at risk of developing severe liver disease is necessary for better prevention. Genetic loci associated with iron metabolism (TF, TMPRSS6, PCSK7, TFR2 and Chr2p14) in recent GWAS and liver fibrosis (PNPLA3) in recent meta-analysis were analyzed for association with either liver cirrhosis or advanced fibrosis in 148 German HFE C282Y homozygotes. Replication of associations was sought in additional 499 Austrian/Swiss and 112 HFE C282Y homozygotes from Sweden. Only variant rs236918 in the PCSK7 gene (proprotein convertase subtilisin/kexin type 7) was associated with cirrhosis or advanced fibrosis (P = 1.02 × 10(-5)) in the German cohort with genotypic odds ratios of 3.56 (95% CI 1.29-9.77) for CG heterozygotes and 5.38 (95% CI 2.39-12.10) for C allele carriers. Association between rs236918 and cirrhosis was confirmed in Austrian/Swiss HFE C282Y homozygotes (P = 0.014; ORallelic = 1.82 (95% CI 1.12-2.95) but not in Swedish patients. Post hoc combined analyses of German/Swiss/Austrian patients with available liver histology (N = 244, P = 0.00014, ORallelic = 2.84) and of males only (N = 431, P = 2.17 × 10(-5), ORallelic = 2.54) were consistent with the premier finding. Association between rs236918 and cirrhosis was not confirmed in alcoholic cirrhotics, suggesting specificity of this genetic risk factor for HH. PCSK7 variant rs236918 is a risk factor for cirrhosis in HH patients homozygous for the HFE C282Y mutation.

Bacterial infections in cirrhosis: a position statement based on the EASL Special Conference 2013.

Bacterial infections are very common and represent one of the most important reasons of progression of liver failure, development of liver-related complications, and mortality in patients with cirrhosis. In fact, bacterial infections may be a triggering factor for the occurrence of gastrointestinal bleeding, hypervolemic hyponatremia, hepatic encephalopathy, kidney failure, and development of acute-on-chronic liver failure. Moreover, infections are a very common cause of repeated hospitalizations, impaired health-related quality of life, and increased healthcare costs in cirrhosis. Bacterial infections develop as a consequence of immune dysfunction that occurs progressively during the course of cirrhosis. In a significant proportion of patients, infections are caused by gram-negative bacteria from intestinal origin, yet gram-positive bacteria are a frequent cause of infection, particularly in hospitalized patients. In recent years, infections caused by multidrug-resistant bacteria are becoming an important clinical problem in many countries. The reduction of the negative clinical impact of infections in patients with cirrhosis may be achieved by a combination of prophylactic measures, such as administration of antibiotics, to reduce the occurrence of infections in high-risk groups together with early identification and management of infection once it has developed. Investigation on the mechanisms of altered gut microflora, translocation of bacteria, and immune dysfunction may help develop more effective and safe methods of prevention compared to those that are currently available. Moreover, research on biomarkers of early infection may be useful in early diagnosis and treatment of infections. The current manuscript reports an in-depth review and a position statement on bacterial infections in cirrhosis.

A genome-wide association study confirms PNPLA3 and identifies TM6SF2 and MBOAT7 as risk loci for alcohol-related cirrhosis

Alcohol misuse is the leading cause of cirrhosis and the second most common indication for liver transplantation in the Western world. We performed a genome-wide association study for alcohol-related cirrhosis in individuals of European descent (712 cases and 1,426 controls) with subsequent validation in two independent European cohorts (1,148 cases and 922 controls). We identified variants in the MBOAT7 (P = 1.03 × 10(-9)) and TM6SF2 (P = 7.89 × 10(-10)) genes as new risk loci and confirmed rs738409 in PNPLA3 as an important risk locus for alcohol-related cirrhosis (P = 1.54 × 10(-48)) at a genome-wide level of significance. These three loci have a role in lipid processing, suggesting that lipid turnover is important in the pathogenesis of alcohol-related cirrhosis.

Serum tests, liver stiffness and artificial neural networks for diagnosing cirrhosis and portal hypertension

BACKGROUND The diagnostic performance of biochemical scores and artificial neural network models for portal hypertension and cirrhosis is not well established. AIMS To assess diagnostic accuracy of six serum scores, artificial neural networks and liver stiffness measured by transient elastography, for diagnosing cirrhosis, clinically significant portal hypertension and oesophageal varices. METHODS 202 consecutive compensated patients requiring liver biopsy and hepatic venous pressure gradient measurement were included. Several serum tests (alone and combined into scores) and liver stiffness were measured. Artificial neural networks containing or not liver stiffness as input variable were also created. RESULTS The best non-invasive method for diagnosing cirrhosis, portal hypertension and oesophageal varices was liver stiffness (C-statistics=0.93, 0.94, and 0.90, respectively). Among serum tests/scores the best for diagnosing cirrhosis and portal hypertension and oesophageal varices were, respectively, Fibrosis-4, and Lok score. Artificial neural networks including liver stiffness had high diagnostic performance for cirrhosis, portal hypertension and oesophageal varices (accuracy>80%), but were not statistically superior to liver stiffness alone. CONCLUSIONS Liver stiffness was the best non-invasive method to assess the presence of cirrhosis, portal hypertension and oesophageal varices. The use of artificial neural networks integrating different non-invasive tests did not increase the diagnostic accuracy of liver stiffness alone.

Reduced serum chemerin in patients with more severe liver cirrhosis

Chemerin is a well-established modulator of immune cell function and its serum levels are induced in inflammatory diseases. Liver cirrhosis is associated with inflammation which is aggravated by portal hypertension. The objective of this study was to evaluate whether chemerin is induced in patients with more severe liver cirrhosis and portal hypertension. Chemerin has been measured by ELISA in the portal venous serum (PVS), systemic venous serum (SVS) and hepatic venous serum (HVS) of 45 patients with liver cirrhosis. Chemerin is higher in HVS compared to PVS in accordance with our recently published finding. SVS, HVS and PVS chemerin decline in patients with more advanced liver injury defined by the CHILD-PUGH score. Hepatic chemerin has been determined in a small cohort and is similarly expressed in normal and cirrhotic liver. MELD score and serum markers of liver and kidney function do not correlate with chemerin. There is a positive correlation of chemerin in all compartments with Quick prothrombin time and of SVS chemerin with systolic blood pressure. PVS chemerin is induced in patients with modest/massive ascites but this does not translate into higher HVS and SVS levels. Chemerin is not associated with variceal size. Reduction of portal pressure by transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt does not affect chemerin levels. These data show that low chemerin in patients with more severe liver cirrhosis is associated with reduced Quick prothrombin time.

Prevention of Rebleeding From Esophageal Varices in Patients With Cirrhosis Receiving Small-Diameter Stents Versus Hemodynamically Controlled Medical Therapy

BACKGROUND & AIMS Patients with cirrhosis and variceal hemorrhage have a high risk of rebleeding. We performed a prospective randomized trial to compare the prevention of rebleeding in patients given a small-diameter covered stent vs those given hepatic venous pressure gradient (HVPG)-based medical therapy prophylaxis. METHODS We performed an open-label study of patients with cirrhosis (92% Child class A or B, 70% alcoholic) treated at 10 medical centers in Germany. Patients were assigned randomly more than 5 days after variceal hemorrhage to groups given a small covered transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic stent-shunt (TIPS) (8 mm; n = 90), or medical reduction of portal pressure (propranolol and isosorbide-5-mononitrate; n = 95). HVPG was determined at the time patients were assigned to groups (baseline) and 2 weeks later. In the medical group, patients with an adequate reduction in HVPG (responders) remained on the drugs whereas nonresponders underwent only variceal band ligation. The study was closed 10 months after the last patient was assigned to a group. The primary end point was variceal rebleeding. Survival, safety (adverse events), and quality of life (based on the Short Form-36 health survey) were secondary outcome measures. RESULTS A significantly smaller proportion of patients in the TIPS group had rebleeding within 2 years (7%) than in the medical group (26%) (P = .002). A slightly higher proportion of patients in the TIPS group experienced adverse events, including encephalopathy (18% vs 8% for medical treatment; P = .05). Rebleeding occurred in 6 of 23 patients (26%) receiving medical treatment before hemodynamic control was possible. Per-protocol analysis showed that rebleeding occurred in a smaller proportion of the 32 responders (18%) than in nonresponders who received variceal band ligation (31%) (P = .06). Fifteen patients from the medical group (16%) underwent TIPS placement during follow-up evaluation, mainly for refractory ascites. Survival time and quality of life did not differ between both randomized groups. CONCLUSIONS Placement of a small-diameter, covered TIPS was straightforward and prevented variceal rebleeding in patients with Child A or B cirrhosis more effectively than drugs, which often required step-by-step therapy. However, TIPS did not increase survival time or quality of life and produced slightly more adverse events. Clinical Trial no: ISRCTN 16334693.

Alcoholic Cirrhosis Increases Risk for Autoimmune Diseases: A Nationwide Registry-Based Cohort Study

BACKGROUND & AIMS Alcoholic cirrhosis is associated with hyperactivation and dysregulation of the immune system. In addition to its ability to increase risk for infections, it also may increase the risk for autoimmune diseases. We studied the incidence of autoimmune diseases among patients with alcoholic cirrhosis vs controls in Denmark. METHODS We collected data from nationwide health care registries to identify and follow up all citizens of Denmark diagnosed with alcoholic cirrhosis from 1977 through 2010. Each patient was matched with 5 random individuals from the population (controls) of the same sex and age. The incidence rates of various autoimmune diseases were compared between patients with cirrhosis and controls and adjusted for the number of hospitalizations in the previous year (a marker for the frequency of clinical examination). RESULTS Of the 24,679 patients diagnosed with alcoholic cirrhosis, 532 developed an autoimmune disease, yielding an overall increased adjusted incidence rate ratio (aIRR) of 1.36 (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.24-1.50). The strongest associations were with Addison's disease (aIRR, 2.47; 95% CI, 1.04-5.85), inflammatory bowel disease (aIRR, 1.56; 95% CI, 1.26-1.92), celiac disease (aIRR, 5.12; 95% CI, 2.58-10.16), pernicious anemia (aIRR, 2.35; 95% CI, 1.50-3.68), and psoriasis (aIRR, 4.06; 95% CI, 3.32-4.97). There was no increase in the incidence rate for rheumatoid arthritis (aIRR, 0.89; 95% CI, 0.69-1.15); the incidence rate for polymyalgia rheumatica decreased in patients with alcoholic cirrhosis compared with controls (aIRR, 0.47; 95% CI, 0.33-0.67). CONCLUSIONS Based on a nationwide cohort study of patients in Denmark, alcoholic cirrhosis is a risk factor for several autoimmune diseases.