Intersection Pairing and intersection motive of surfaces

We construct the Chow motive modelling intersection co-homology of a proper surface. We then study its functoriality properties. Using Murre's decompositions of the motive of a desingularization into KÄunneth components [Mr1], we show that such decompositions exist also for the intersection motive.

Limit Cycles for a class of three dimensional polynomial differential systems

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On the upper bound of the number of limit cycles obtained by the second order averaging method I

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On the upper bound of the number of limit cycles obtained by the second order averaging method II

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Geometric tools to determine the hyperbolicity of limit cycles

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Periodic orbits in complex Abel equation

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Quadratic perturbations of a quadratic reversible Lotka-Volterra System

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Hopf bifurcation for degenerate singular points of multiplicity 2n-1 in dimension 3

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Multiplicity of limit cycles and analytic m-solutions for planar differential systems

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On the existence and uniqueness of limit cycles in Liénard differential equations allowing discontinuities

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Understanding sources of the change in international business cycles

Macroeconomic activity has become less volatile over the past three decades in most G7 economies. Current literature focuses on the characterization of the volatility reduction and explanations for this so called "moderation" in each G7 economy separately. In opposed to individual country analysis and individual variable analysis, this paper focuses on common characteristics of the reduction and common explanations for the moderation in G7 countries. In particular, we study three explanations: structural changes in the economy, changes in common international shocks and changes in domestic shocks. We study these explanations in a unified model structure. To this end, we propose a Bayesian factor structural vector autoregressive model. Using the proposed model, we investigate whether we can find common explanations for all G7 economies when information is pooled from multiple domestic and international sources. Our empirical analysis suggests that volatility reductions can largely be attributed to the decline in the magnitudes of the shocks in most G7 countries while only for the U.K., the U.S. and Italy they can partially be attributed to structural changes in the economy. Analyzing the components of the volatility, we also find that domestic shocks rather than common international shocks can account for a large part of the volatility reduction in most of the G7 countries. Finally, we find that after mid-1980s the structure of the economy changes substantially in five of the G7 countries: Germany, Italy, Japan, the U.K. and the U.S..

Business Cycle Regimes in CEECs Production: A Threshold SURE Approach

We use a threshold seemingly unrelated regressions specification to assess whether the Central and East European countries (CEECs) are synchronized in their business cycles to the Euro-area. This specification is useful in two ways: First, it takes into account the common institutional factors and the similarities across CEECs in their process of economic transition. Second, it captures business cycle asymmetries by allowing for the presence of two distinct regimes for the CEECs. As the CEECs are strongly affected by the Euro-area these regimes may be associated with Euro-area expansions and contractions. We discuss representation, estimation by maximum likelihood and inference. The methodology is illustrated by using monthly industrial production in 8 CEECs. The results show that apart from Lithuania the rest of the CEECs experience “normal” growth when the Euro-area contracts and “high” growth when the Euro-area expands. Given that the CEECs are “catching up” with the Euro-area this result shows that most CEECs seem synchronized to the Euro-area cycle. Keywords: Threshold SURE; asymmetry; business cycles; CEECs. JEL classification: C33; C50; E32.

Hopf bifurcation in higher dimensional differential systems via the averaging method

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Estudi de la reductibilitat de catalitzadors basats en cobalt i el seu comportament en la reacció de desplaçament de gas d'aigua de CO

Projecte de recerca elaborat a partir d’una estada a la universitat d'Udine, Itàlia, entre setembre i desembre del 2006.S'han caracteritzat mitjançant la reducció a temperatura programada i tests catalítics catalitzadors en pols basats en cobalt i supostats en òxid de zinc i monòlits ceràmics funcionaliltzats també amb cobalt i òxid de zinc. L'addició de promotors (manganès, crom i ferro ) als catalitzadors en pols, preparats per impregnació i precipitació, no afecta significativament ni la temperatura a la qual té lloc la reducció ni al percentatge global de reducció. En els cicles de reducció-oxidació sí que s'observen diferències entre el primer perfil de reducció i els següents, especialment en el cas de la mostra que té ferro com a promotor, on les diferències s'accentuen en cicles successius (fins al quart). S'ha evaluat l'activitat d'aquests catalitzadors en la reacció de desplaçament de gas d'aigua, obtenint uns resultats satisfactoris. Finalment s'han realitzat reduccions a temperatura programada i tests catalítics en la reacció de desplaçament de gas d'aigua amb monòlits funcionalitzats amb cobalt i òxid de zinc (en cap d'ells s'ha introduït promotors). El nivell de conversió assolit és menor que en el cas de catalitzadors en pols, fet que s'associa a la geometria d'aquests sistemes catalítics, però la relació CH4/CO2 és més favorable que en els catalitzadors en pols, el que els converteix en sistemes molt selectius.

Leading indicator properties of US high-yield credit spreads

In this paper we examine the out-of-sample forecast performance of high-yield credit spreads regarding real-time and revised data on employment and industrial production in the US. We evaluate models using both a point forecast and a probability forecast exercise. Our main findings suggest the use of few factors obtained by pooling information from a number of sector-specific high-yield credit spreads. This can be justified by observing that, especially for employment, there is a gain from using a principal components model fitted to high-yield credit spreads compared to the prediction produced by benchmarks, such as an AR, and ARDL models that use either the term spread or the aggregate high-yield spread as exogenous regressor. Moreover, forecasts based on real-time data are generally comparable to forecasts based on revised data. JEL Classification: C22; C53; E32 Keywords: Credit spreads; Principal components; Forecasting; Real-time data.