Modelling the hydraulics of the Carlisle 2005 flood event

The performance of a 2D numerical model of flood hydraulics is tested for a major event in Carlisle, UK, in 2005. This event is associated with a unique data set, with GPS surveyed wrack lines and flood extent surveyed 3 weeks after the flood. The Simple Finite Volume (SFV) model is used to solve the 2D Saint-Venant equations over an unstructured mesh of 30000 elements representing channel and floodplain, and allowing detailed hydraulics of flow around bridge piers and other influential features to be represented. The SFV model is also used to corroborate flows recorded for the event at two gauging stations. Calibration of Manning's n is performed with a two stage strategy, with channel values determined by calibration of the gauging station models, and floodplain values determined by optimising the fit between model results and observed water levels and flood extent for the 2005 event. RMS error for the calibrated model compared with surveyed water levels is ~±0.4m, the same order of magnitude as the estimated error in the survey data. The study demonstrates the ability of unstructured mesh hydraulic models to represent important hydraulic processes across a range of scales, with potential applications to flood risk management.

Fine sediment delivery and transfer in lowland catchments: modelling suspended sediment concentrations in response to hydrological forcing

Fine sediment delivery to and storage in stream channel reaches can disrupt aquatic habitats, impact river hydromorphology, and transfer adsorbed nutrients and pollutants from catchment slopes to the fluvial system. This paper presents a modelling toot for simulating the time-dependent response of the fine sediment system in catchments, using an integrated approach that incorporates both land phase and in-stream processes of sediment generation, storage and transfer. The performance of the model is demonstrated by applying it to simulate in-stream suspended sediment concentrations in two lowland catchments in southern England, the Enborne and the Lambourn, which exhibit contrasting hydrological and sediment responses due to differences in substrate permeability. The sediment model performs well in the Enborne catchment, where direct runoff events are frequent and peak suspended sediment concentrations can exceed 600 mg l(-1). The general trends in the in-stream concentrations in the Lambourn catchment are also reproduced by the model, although the observed concentrations are low (rarely exceeding 50 mg l(-1)) and the background variability in the concentrations is not fully characterized by the model. Direct runoff events are rare in this highly permeable catchment, resulting in a weak coupling between the sediment delivery system and the catchment hydrology. The generic performance of the model is also assessed using a generalized sensitivity analysis based on the parameter bounds identified in the catchment applications. Results indicate that the hydrological parameters contributing to the sediment response include those controlling (1) the partitioning of runoff between surface and soil zone flows and (2) the fractional loss of direct runoff volume prior to channel delivery. The principal sediment processes controlling model behaviour in the simulations are the transport capacity of direct runoff and the in-stream generation, storage and release of the fine sediment fraction. The in-stream processes appear to be important in maintaining the suspended sediment concentrations during low flows in the River Enborne and throughout much of the year in the River Lambourn. Copyright (c) 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

LiDAR mapping of tidal marshes for ecogeomorphological modelling in the TIDE project

The European research project TIDE (Tidal Inlets Dynamics and Environment) is developing and validating coupled models describing the morphological, biological and ecological evolution of tidal environments. The interactions between the physical and biological processes occurring in these regions requires that the system be studied as a whole rather than as separate parts. Extensive use of remote sensing including LiDAR is being made to provide validation data for the modelling. This paper describes the different uses of LiDAR within the project and their relevance to the TIDE science objectives. LiDAR data have been acquired from three different environments, the Venice Lagoon in Italy, Morecambe Bay in England, and the Eden estuary in Scotland. LiDAR accuracy at each site has been evaluated using ground reference data acquired with differential GPS. A semi-automatic technique has been developed to extract tidal channel networks from LiDAR data either used alone or fused with aerial photography. While the resulting networks may require some correction, the procedure does allow network extraction over large areas using objective criteria and reduces fieldwork requirements. The networks extracted may subsequently be used in geomorphological analyses, for example to describe the drainage patterns induced by networks and to examine the rate of change of networks. Estimation of the heights of the low and sparse vegetation on marshes is being investigated by analysis of the statistical distribution of the measured LiDAR heights. Species having different mean heights may be separated using the first-order moments of the height distribution.

Uses of airborne scanning laser altimetry for river flood modelling and coastal geomorphology

Two ongoing projects at ESSC that involve the development of new techniques for extracting information from airborne LiDAR data and combining this information with environmental models will be discussed. The first project in conjunction with Bristol University is aiming to improve 2-D river flood flow models by using remote sensing to provide distributed data for model calibration and validation. Airborne LiDAR can provide such models with a dense and accurate floodplain topography together with vegetation heights for parameterisation of model friction. The vegetation height data can be used to specify a friction factor at each node of a model’s finite element mesh. A LiDAR range image segmenter has been developed which converts a LiDAR image into separate raster maps of surface topography and vegetation height for use in the model. Satellite and airborne SAR data have been used to measure flood extent remotely in order to validate the modelled flood extent. Methods have also been developed for improving the models by decomposing the model’s finite element mesh to reflect floodplain features such as hedges and trees having different frictional properties to their surroundings. Originally developed for rural floodplains, the segmenter is currently being extended to provide DEMs and friction parameter maps for urban floods, by fusing the LiDAR data with digital map data. The second project is concerned with the extraction of tidal channel networks from LiDAR. These networks are important features of the inter-tidal zone, and play a key role in tidal propagation and in the evolution of salt-marshes and tidal flats. The study of their morphology is currently an active area of research, and a number of theories related to networks have been developed which require validation using dense and extensive observations of network forms and cross-sections. The conventional method of measuring networks is cumbersome and subjective, involving manual digitisation of aerial photographs in conjunction with field measurement of channel depths and widths for selected parts of the network. A semi-automatic technique has been developed to extract networks from LiDAR data of the inter-tidal zone. A multi-level knowledge-based approach has been implemented, whereby low level algorithms first extract channel fragments based mainly on image properties then a high level processing stage improves the network using domain knowledge. The approach adopted at low level uses multi-scale edge detection to detect channel edges, then associates adjacent anti-parallel edges together to form channels. The higher level processing includes a channel repair mechanism.

Numerical modelling of two-way propagation of non-linear dispersive waves

We describe and implement a fully discrete spectral method for the numerical solution of a class of non-linear, dispersive systems of Boussinesq type, modelling two-way propagation of long water waves of small amplitude in a channel. For three particular systems, we investigate properties of the numerically computed solutions; in particular we study the generation and interaction of approximate solitary waves.

Integration of remote sensing and GIS for modelling flash floods in Wadi Hudain catchment, Egypt

This paper presents a new approach to modelling flash floods in dryland catchments by integrating remote sensing and digital elevation model (DEM) data in a geographical information system (GIS). The spectral reflectance of channels affected by recent flash floods exhibit a marked increase, due to the deposition of fine sediments in these channels as the flood recedes. This allows the parts of a catchment that have been affected by a recent flood event to be discriminated from unaffected parts, using a time series of Landsat images. Using images of the Wadi Hudain catchment in southern Egypt, the hillslope areas contributing flow were inferred for different flood events. The SRTM3 DEM was used to derive flow direction, flow length, active channel cross-sectional areas and slope. The Manning Equation was used to estimate the channel flow velocities, and hence the time-area zones of the catchment. A channel reach that was active during a 1985 runoff event, that does not receive any tributary flow, was used to estimate a transmission loss rate of 7·5 mm h−1, given the maximum peak discharge estimate. Runoff patterns resulting from different flood events are quite variable; however the southern part of the catchment appears to have experienced more floods during the period of study (1984–2000), perhaps because the bedrock hillslopes in this area are more effective at runoff production than other parts of the catchment which are underlain by unconsolidated Quaternary sands and gravels. Due to high transmission loss, runoff generated within the upper reaches is rarely delivered to the alluvial fan and Shalateen city situated at the catchment outlet. The synthetic GIS-based time area zones, on their own, cannot be relied on to model the hydrographs reliably; physical parameters, such as rainfall intensity, distribution, and transmission loss, must also be considered.

A mesoscopic modelling approach to anaesthetic action on brain electrical activity

Relating the measurable, large scale, effects of anaesthetic agents to their molecular and cellular targets of action is necessary to better understand the principles by which they affect behavior, as well as enabling the design and evaluation of more effective agents and the better clinical monitoring of existing and future drugs. Volatile and intravenous general anaesthetic agents (GAs) are now known to exert their effects on a variety of protein targets, the most important of which seem to be the neuronal ion channels. It is hence unlikely that anaesthetic effect is the result of a unitary mechanism at the single cell level. However, by altering the behavior of ion channels GAs are believed to change the overall dynamics of distributed networks of neurons. This disruption of regular network activity can be hypothesized to cause the hypnotic and analgesic effects of GAs and may well present more stereotypical characteristics than its underlying microscopic causes. Nevertheless, there have been surprisingly few theories that have attempted to integrate, in a quantitative manner, the empirically well documented alterations in neuronal ion channel behavior with the corresponding macroscopic effects. Here we outline one such approach, and show that a range of well documented effects of anaesthetics on the electroencephalogram (EEG) may be putatively accounted for. In particular we parameterize, on the basis of detailed empirical data, the effects of halogenated volatile ethers (a clinically widely used class of general anaesthetic agent). The resulting model is able to provisionally account for a range of anaesthetically induced EEG phenomena that include EEG slowing, biphasic changes in EEG power, and the dose dependent appearance of anomalous ictal activity, as well as providing a basis for novel approaches to monitoring brain function in both health and disease.

Calibration of structure in a distributed forecasting model for a semiarid flash flood: dynamic surface storage and channel roughness

Flash floods pose a significant danger for life and property. Unfortunately, in arid and semiarid environment the runoff generation shows a complex non-linear behavior with a strong spatial and temporal non-uniformity. As a result, the predictions made by physically-based simulations in semiarid areas are subject to great uncertainty, and a failure in the predictive behavior of existing models is common. Thus better descriptions of physical processes at the watershed scale need to be incorporated into the hydrological model structures. For example, terrain relief has been systematically considered static in flood modelling at the watershed scale. Here, we show that the integrated effect of small distributed relief variations originated through concurrent hydrological processes within a storm event was significant on the watershed scale hydrograph. We model these observations by introducing dynamic formulations of two relief-related parameters at diverse scales: maximum depression storage, and roughness coefficient in channels. In the final (a posteriori) model structure these parameters are allowed to be both time-constant or time-varying. The case under study is a convective storm in a semiarid Mediterranean watershed with ephemeral channels and high agricultural pressures (the Rambla del Albujón watershed; 556 km 2 ), which showed a complex multi-peak response. First, to obtain quasi-sensible simulations in the (a priori) model with time-constant relief-related parameters, a spatially distributed parameterization was strictly required. Second, a generalized likelihood uncertainty estimation (GLUE) inference applied to the improved model structure, and conditioned to observed nested hydrographs, showed that accounting for dynamic relief-related parameters led to improved simulations. The discussion is finally broadened by considering the use of the calibrated model both to analyze the sensitivity of the watershed to storm motion and to attempt the flood forecasting of a stratiform event with highly different behavior.

Sensitivity of a hydraulic model to changes in channel erosion during extreme flooding

Recent research into flood modelling has primarily concentrated on the simulation of inundation flow without considering the influences of channel morphology. River channels are often represented by a simplified geometry that is implicitly assumed to remain unchanged during flood simulations. However, field evidence demonstrates that significant morphological changes can occur during floods to mobilise the boundary sediments. Despite this, the effect of channel morphology on model results has been largely unexplored. To address this issue, the impact of channel cross-section geometry and channel long-profile variability on flood dynamics is examined using an ensemble of a 1D-2D hydraulic model (LISFLOOD-FP) of the 1:2102 year recurrence interval floods in Cockermouth, UK, within an uncertainty framework. A series of hypothetical scenarios of channel morphology were constructed based on a simple velocity based model of critical entrainment. A Monte-Carlo simulation framework was used to quantify the effects of channel morphology together with variations in the channel and floodplain roughness coefficients, grain size characteristics, and critical shear stress on measures of flood inundation. The results showed that the bed elevation modifications generated by the simplistic equations reflected a good approximation of the observed patterns of spatial erosion despite its overestimation of erosion depths. The effect of uncertainty on channel long-profile variability only affected the local flood dynamics and did not significantly affect the friction sensitivity and flood inundation mapping. The results imply that hydraulic models generally do not need to account for within event morphodynamic changes of the type and magnitude modelled, as these have a negligible impact that is smaller than other uncertainties, e.g. boundary conditions. Instead morphodynamic change needs to happen over a series of events to become large enough to change the hydrodynamics of floods in supply limited gravel-bed rivers like the one used in this research.

Modelling blackwater: predicting water quality during flooding of lowland river forests

The blackwater model was developed to predict adverse water quality associated with flooding of the Barmah-Millewa Forests on the River Murray. Specifically, the model examines the likelihood and severity of blackwater events—high dissolved organic carbon associated with low dissolved oxygen. The Barmah-Millewa Forests are dominated by an overstorey of River Red Gum (Eucalyptus camaldulensis) and the litter from these trees contributes a substantial proportion of the pulse of dissolved organic matter released from the floodplain during flooding. This model examines rates of litter accumulation and decay on the floodplain (prior to and during flooding), rates of carbon leaching, microbial degradation, oxygen consumption, reaeration processes and the effects of flow on the concentrations of dissolved organic carbon and dissolved oxygen in the water column (both on the floodplain and in the river channel downstream). The model has been calibrated with data from two blackwater events that have taken place in these forests within the last 5 years. Scenario testing with the model highlights the particularly important roles of flow and temperature in the development of anoxia. Pooled floods and those in the warmest months of the year are substantially more likely to result in blackwater events than floods in cooler times of the year and involving more water exchange between the river channel and the floodplain.

Deep drawing behaviour of ultrafine grained copper : modelling and experiment

Ultrafine grained materials produced by severe plastic deformation methods possess attractive mechanical properties such as high strength compared with traditional coarse grained counterparts and reasonable ductility. Between existing severe plastic deformation methods the Equal Channel Angular Pressing is the most promising for future industrial applications and can produce a variety of ultrafine grained microstructures in materials depending on route, temperature and number of passes during processing. Driven by a rising trend of miniaturisation of parts these materials are promising candidates for microforming processes. Considering that bi-axial deformation of sheet (foil) is the major operation in microforming, the investigation of the influence of the number of ECAP passes on the bi-axial ductility in micro deep drawing test has been examined by experiments and FE simulation in this study. The experiments have showed that high force was required for drawing of the samples processed by ECAP compare to coarse grained materials. The limit drawing ratio of ultrafine grained samples was in the range of 1.9–2.0 with ECAP pass number changing from 1 to 16, while a higher value of 2.2 was obtained for coarse grained copper. However, the notable decrease in tensile ductility with increase in strength was not as pronounced for bi-axial ductility. The FE simulation using standard isotropic hardening model and von Mises yielding criterion confirmed these findings.

Improving the cost-effectiveness of cardiovascular disease prevention in Australia : a modelling study

Background : Cardiovascular disease is the leading cause of death worldwide. Like many countries, Australia is currently changing its guidelines for cardiovascular disease prevention from drug treatment for everyone with 'high blood pressure' or 'high cholesterol', to prevention based on a patient's absolute risk. In this research, we model cost-effectiveness of cardiovascular disease prevention with blood pressure and lipid drugs in Australia under three different scenarios: (1) the true current practice in Australia; (2) prevention as intended under the current guidelines; and (3) prevention according to proposed absolute risk levels. We consider the implications of changing to absolute risk-based cardiovascular disease prevention, for the health of the Australian people and for Government health sector expenditure over the long term.

Methods : We evaluate cost-effectiveness of statins, diuretics, ACE inhibitors, calcium channel blockers and beta-blockers, for Australian men and women, aged 35 to 84 years, who have never experienced a heart disease or stroke event. Epidemiological changes and health care costs are simulated by age and sex in a discrete time Markov model, to determine total impacts on population health and health sector costs over the lifetime, from which we derive cost-effectiveness ratios in 2008 Australian dollars per quality-adjusted life year.

Results : Cardiovascular disease prevention based on absolute risk is more cost-effective than prevention under the current guidelines based on single risk factor thresholds, and is more cost-effective than the current practice, which does not follow current clinical guidelines. Recommending blood pressure-lowering drugs to everyone with at least 5% absolute risk and statin drugs to everyone with at least 10% absolute risk, can achieve current levels of population health, while saving $5.4 billion for the Australian Government over the lifetime of the population. But savings could be as high as $7.1 billion if Australia could match the cheaper price of statin drugs in New Zealand.

Conclusions : Changing to absolute risk-based cardiovascular disease prevention is highly recommended for reducing health sector spending, but the Australian Government must also consider measures to reduce the cost of statin drugs, over and above the legislated price cuts of November 2010.

Antenna selection and channel estimation for hybrid relay systems

The research addressed performance issues for wireless signal transmission and has shown that performance improves with the help of relays due to increased diversity. Further, the areas of antenna selection and channel estimation and modelling has been investigated for improved cost and complexity and has shown to further enhance the performance of the wireless relay systems.

Combined Vertical And Lateral Channel Evolution Numerical Modeling

Vertical stream bed erosion has been studied routinely and its modeling is getting widespread acceptance. The same cannot be said with lateral stream bank erosion since its measurement or numerical modeling is very challenging. Bank erosion, however, can be important to channel morphology. It may contribute significantly to the overall sediment budget of a stream, is a leading cause of channel migration, and is the cause of major channel maintenance. However, combined vertical and lateral channel evolution is seldom addressed. In this study, a new geofluival numerical model is developed to simulate combined vertical and lateral channel evolution. Vertical erosion is predicted with a 2D depth-averaged model SRH-2D, while lateral erosion is simulated with a linear retreat bank erosion model developed in this study. SRH-2D and the bank erosion model are coupled together both spatially and temporally through a common mesh and the same time advancement. The new geofluvial model is first tested and verified using laboratory meander channels; good agreement are obtained between predicted bank retreat and measured data. The model is then applied to a 16-kilometer reach of Chosui River, Taiwan. Vertical and lateral channel evolution during a three-year period (2004 to 2007) is simulated and results are compared with the field data. It is shown that the geofluvial model correctly captures all major erosion and deposition patterns. The new model is shown to be useful for identifying potential erosion sites and providing information for river maintenance planning.

A Study On The Flow Characteristics Influenced By Hydraulic Structure At A Channel Junction

Natural riversare consisting of various networks as junction andstreams. And sediment and erosion are occurred by specific stream condition. When flood season,large discharge flew in the river and river bed changed by high flow velocity. Especially junction area’s flow characteristics are very complex. The purpose of this study is to analyze the flow characteristics in channel junction, which are most influenced by large discharge like flooding and input water from tributary. We investigate the flow characteristics by using hydrodynamics and transport module in MIKE 3 FM. MIKE 3 FM model was helpful tool to analysis 3D hydrodynamics, erosion and sediment effect from channel bed. We analyze flow characteristics at channel junction. Also we consider hydraulic structures like a bridge pier which is influencing flow characteristics like a flow velocity, water level, erosion and scour depth in channel bed. In the model, we controlled discharge condition according to Froude Number and reflect various grain diameter size and flow ratio change in main stream and tributary. In the result, flow velocity, water level, erosion and sediment depth are analyzed. Additionally, we suggest a these result relationship with equations. This study will help the understand flow characteristics and influence of hydraulic structure in channel junction. Acknowledgments This research was supported by a grant (12-TI-C01) from Advanced Water Management Research Program funded by Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport of Korean government.