Should system dynamics be described as a 'hard' or 'deterministic' systems approach?

This paper explores the criticism that system dynamics is a ‘hard’ or ‘deterministic’ systems approach. This criticism is seen to have four interpretations and each is addressed from the perspectives of social theory and systems science. Firstly, system dynamics is shown to offer not prophecies but Popperian predictions. Secondly, it is shown to involve the view that system structure only partially, not fully, determines human behaviour. Thirdly, the field's assumptions are shown not to constitute a grand content theory—though its structural theory and its attachment to the notion of causality in social systems are acknowledged. Finally, system dynamics is shown to be significantly different from systems engineering. The paper concludes that such confusions have arisen partially because of limited communication at the theoretical level from within the system dynamics community but also because of imperfect command of the available literature on the part of external commentators. Improved communication on theoretical issues is encouraged, though it is observed that system dynamics will continue to justify its assumptions primarily from the point of view of practical problem solving. The answer to the question in the paper's title is therefore: on balance, no.

Paradigma constitucional brasileiro da livre concorrência e da defesa do consumidor face às estruturas de poder no mercado

The Federal Constitution of 1988, when taking care of the economical order, denotes special concern in the abuses of the economical power and the disloyal competition. The mark to mediate of all this is, in fact, the defense and the consumer's protection, once this is final addressee of whatever if it puts at the consumption market. The coming of the Law 8.078/90, Code of Protection and Defense of the Consumer, inaugurates a time of effective concern with the homogeneous individual interests originating from of the consumption relationships. In this point, the focus of main to face of the present work lives, in other words, the protection of the right to the individual property, especially manifests in the exercise of the trade freedom that keeps direct relationship with the respective social function the one that is destined. The code of the consumer's defense doesn't just take care of this, but also of the other star of the relationships of the consumption. When affirming in the interruption VI of the art. 4th that the national politics of those relationships, finds ballast in the prohibition and repression efficient of all of the abuses committed in the consumption relationships, keeping inherent relationship-causality in the economical order, sculpted for the article 170 in the Constitution of 1988. In the generic plan, the mark of the present work is to question concerning the limits of the trade freedom and previsible collisions with protection norms and the consumer's defense, as well as factual convergences of those small systems, especially in what he/she refers to the innate interests to the suppliers. In the specific plan, we aspirated to identify the protection device-commands to the actors of the trade relationship, capable to guarantee the free competition in a global economy of market, seeking especially the Well-being, for soon afterwards, in an analytical perspective, to discover the possible applications that it holds the Federal Constitution, in headquarters of economical freedoms. It was observed that the consumer today doesn't need only of laws that their needs, fruit of the vulnerability that it is him/her meditate innate. He/she lacks, yes, of effective mechanisms that prevent lesions that can be them impinged by the suppliers at the time in that you/they are useful to repair the damages when happened, punishing the author of the damage

O uso da estatística de qui-quadrado no controle de processos

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Consistency between light-front quantization and covariantization for zero modes

In the light-cone gauge choice for Abelian and non-Abelian gauge fields, the vector boson propagator carries in it an additional spurious or unphysical pole intrinsic to the choice requiring a careful mathematical treatment. Research in this field over the years has shown us that mathematical consistency only is not enough to guarantee physically meaningful results. Whatever the prescription invoked to handle such an object, it has to preserve causality in the process. On the other hand, the covariantization technique is a well-suited one to tackle gauge-dependent poles in the Feynman integrals, dispensing the use of ad hoc prescriptions. In this work we show that the covariantization technique in the light-cone gauge is a direct consequence of the canonical quantization of the theory. © World Scientific Publishing Company.

Emergência de plantas daninhas em função da posição da semente e quantidade de palha de cana-de- açúcar

This work was carried out to evaluate the effects of sugarcane straw density and positions of seeds of Euphorbia heterophylla, Mucuna cinereum, Digitaria nuda and Eleusine indica on emergence and initial development of plants. The experiment were arranged in a completely randomized design, with 15 treatments and four replications, in a factorial arrangement 3 x 5 with a additional control; the first factor was constituted by position of seeds related to the straw (under, between and on) and the second by five quantities of straw (1, 2, 4, 8 e 16 t ha -1) with a control without straw. At 15 days after sowing (DAS) it was realized evaluations of height, dry mass and emergence percentage for E. heterophylla and M. cinereum, and at 28 DAS it was analyzed dry mass and emergence percentage for D nuda e E. indica. Data obtained were submitted to F in variance analysis test and means were compared with Tukey at 5% probability. Emergence and initial development of E. heterophylla e M. cinereum were reduced with increasing of straw and were affected by seed position, but it was not inhibited in none of conditions, indicating aggressiveness of these weeds in sugarcane mechanized harvest conditions. D. nuda and E. indica emergence was not affected by seed position and coverage soil with 8 e 16 t ha -1 of sugarcane straw inhibited its emergence.

Relação informacional: uma alternativa ao paradigma causal na explicação da ação

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

Ciência cognitiva, sistêmica e filosofia Bergsoniana: uma reflexão acerca da vida em sua capacidade organizativa

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

Da geografia medieval às origens da geografia moderna: contrastes entre diferentes noções de natureza, espaço e tempo

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

Intersubjetividade e interlocução nas relações de causalidade: a funcionalidade dos juntivos causais na língua portuguesa

This study approaches the expression of causality in the clause combining in Portuguese, considering, as fundamental, the thread that exists between the performance, in the socio-interaction, and cognitive trigger, based on intersubjectivity. Given that grammar is responsible for the functional organization of those relationships, the study examines the conjunctions traditionally considered as “causal”, especially those constructs invested with effects that go beyond the strict direction cause-consequence. After evaluating the proposal of formation of “causal” conjunction blocks with similar behavior, in contrast with others, we arrive at the discussion of the functional uniqueness of the conjunction porque (because).

A revisão das antinomias na psicologia: do racionalismo cientificista ao estruturalismo

In this essay, we sustain the idea that structuralist thinking is part of spontaneous criticism against the reductionisms that surround psychology. We depart from the radical split-up between the scientific viewpoint and that of metaphysics, expressed in the end-19th century scientific psychology projects. Next, we highlight the importance of the structuralist perspective in the review of the antinomic relations between the subjective and objective, operated at the heart of psychology throughout the 20th century. We show that the rejection of unilineal causality in favor of network causality curbed the advancement of unilateral or reductionist theories in psychology. Moreover, we consider the idea of structure as a point of convergence between psychology and philosophy. More than its explanatory nature, the notion of structure reveals an epistemological register capable of re-approximating psychology to the relativization of the ideal of scientific neutrality. The importance of structuralist thinking in psychology makes us consider the history of psychological knowledge as a type of research that belongs to cultural history.

Development of record-breaking statistics for climatological time-series analysis

The number of record-breaking events expected to occur in a strictly stationary time-series depends only on the number of values in the time-series, regardless of distribution. This holds whether the events are record-breaking highs or lows and whether we count from past to present or present to past. However, these symmetries are broken in distinct ways by trends in the mean and variance. We define indices that capture this information and use them to detect weak trends from multiple time-series. Here, we use these methods to answer the following questions: (1) Is there a variability trend among globally distributed surface temperature time-series? We find a significant decreasing variability over the past century for the Global Historical Climatology Network (GHCN). This corresponds to about a 10% change in the standard deviation of inter-annual monthly mean temperature distributions. (2) How are record-breaking high and low surface temperatures in the United States affected by time period? We investigate the United States Historical Climatology Network (USHCN) and find that the ratio of record-breaking highs to lows in 2006 increases as the time-series extend further into the past. When we consider the ratio as it evolves with respect to a fixed start year, we find it is strongly correlated with the ensemble mean. We also compare the ratios for USHCN and GHCN (minus USHCN stations). We find the ratios grow monotonically in the GHCN data set, but not in the USHCN data set. (3) Do we detect either mean or variance trends in annual precipitation within the United States? We find that the total annual and monthly precipitation in the United States (USHCN) has increased over the past century. Evidence for a trend in variance is inconclusive.

Biodiversity Effects on Plant Stoichiometry

In the course of the biodiversity-ecosystem functioning debate, the issue of multifunctionality of species communities has recently become a major focus. Elemental stoichiometry is related to a variety of processes reflecting multiple plant responses to the biotic and abiotic environment. It can thus be expected that the diversity of a plant assemblage alters community level plant tissue chemistry. We explored elemental stoichiometry in aboveground plant tissue (ratios of carbon, nitrogen, phosphorus, and potassium) and its relationship to plant diversity in a 5-year study in a large grassland biodiversity experiment (Jena Experiment). Species richness and functional group richness affected community stoichiometry, especially by increasing C:P and N:P ratios. The primacy of either species or functional group richness effects depended on the sequence of testing these terms, indicating that both aspects of richness were congruent and complementary to expected strong effects of legume presence and grass presence on plant chemical composition. Legumes and grasses had antagonistic effects on C:N (−27.7% in the presence of legumes, +32.7% in the presence of grasses). In addition to diversity effects on mean ratios, higher species richness consistently decreased the variance of chemical composition for all elemental ratios. The diversity effects on plant stoichiometry has several non-exclusive explanations: The reduction in variance can reflect a statistical averaging effect of species with different chemical composition or a optimization of nutrient uptake at high diversity, leading to converging ratios at high diversity. The shifts in mean ratios potentially reflect higher allocation to stem tissue as plants grew taller at higher richness. By showing a first link between plant diversity and stoichiometry in a multiyear experiment, our results indicate that losing plant species from grassland ecosystems will lead to less reliable chemical composition of forage for herbivorous consumers and belowground litter input.

Bone Volume Fraction and Fabric Anisotropy Are Better Determinants of Trabecular Bone Stiffness than Other Morphological Variables

As our population ages, more individuals suffer from osteoporosis. This disease leads to impaired trabecular architecture and increased fracture risk. It is essential to understand how morphological and mechanical properties of the cancellous bone are related. Morphologyelasticity relationships based on bone volume fraction (BV/TV) and fabric anisotropy explain up to 98% of the variation in elastic properties. Yet, other morphological variables such as individual trabeculae segmentation (ITS) and trabecular bone score (TBS) could improve the stiffness predictions. A total of 743 micro-computed tomography reconstructions of cubic trabecular bone samples extracted from femur, radius, vertebrae and iliac crest were analysed. Their morphology was assessed via 25 variables and their stiffness tensor (inline image) was computed from six independent load cases using micro finite element analyses. Variance inflation factors were calculated to evaluate collinearity between morphological variables and decide upon their inclusion in morphology-elasticity relationships. The statistically admissible morphological variables were included in a multi-linear regression modelling the dependent variable inline image. The contribution of each independent variable was evaluated (ANOVA). Our results show that BV/TV is the best determinant of inline image (inline image=0.889), especially in combination with fabric (inline image=0.968). Including the other independent predictors hardly affected the amount of variance explained by the model (inline image=0.975). Across all anatomical sites, BV/TV explained 87% of the variance of the bone elastic properties. Fabric further described 10% of the bone stiffness, but the improvement in variance explanation by adding other independent factors was marginal (<1%). These findings confirm that BV/TV and fabric are the best determinants of trabecular bone stiffness and show, against common belief, that other morphological variables do not bring any further contribution. These overall conclusions remain to be confirmed for specific bone diseases and post-elastic properties.

The Great Moderation and the Relationship between Output Growth and Its Volatility

This study examines the effect of the Great Moderation on the relationship between U.S. output growth and its volatility over the period 1947 to 2006. First, we consider the possible effects of structural change in the volatility process. In so doing, we employ GARCH-M and ARCH-M specifications of the process describing output growth rate and its volatility with and without a one-time structural break in volatility. Second, our data analyses and empirical results suggest no significant relationship between the output growth rate and its volatility, favoring the traditional wisdom of dichotomy in macroeconomics. Moreover, the evidence shows that the time-varying variance falls sharply or even disappears once we incorporate a one-time structural break in the unconditional variance of output starting 1982 or 1984. That is, the integrated GARCH effect proves spurious. Finally, a joint test of a trend change and a one-time shift in the volatility process finds that the one-time shift dominates.

Morphology of Orbulina universa and Globorotalia scitula across local extinctions during Sapropel S5 (Eastern Mediterranean Sea, c.126-121 ka)

Extinction is a remarkably difficult phenomenon to study under natural conditions. This is because the outcome of stress exposure and associated fitness reduction is not known until the extinction occurs and it remains unclear whether there is any phenotypic reaction of the exposed population that can be used to predict its fate. Here we take advantage of the fossil record, where the ecological outcome of stress exposure is known. Specifically, we analyze shell morphology of planktonic Foraminifera in sediment samples from the Mediterranean, during an interval preceding local extinctions. In two species representing different plankton habitats, we observe shifts in trait state and decrease in variance in association with non-terminal stress, indicating stabilizing selection. At terminal stress levels, immediately before extinction, we observe increased growth asymmetry and trait variance, indicating disruptive selection and bet-hedging. The pre-extinction populations of both species show a combination of trait states and trait variance distinct from all populations exposed to non-terminal levels of stress. This finding indicates that the phenotypic history of a population may allow the detection of threshold levels of stress, likely to lead to extinction. It is thus an alternative to population dynamics in studying and monitoring natural population ecology.