Is money targeting an option for Bank Indonesia?

In this paper, using the cash-in-advance model, we estimate Indonesia's money demand function for the period 1970–2005. We find the real M1 and real M2 are cointegrated with their determinants, namely real income, real exchange rate and short-term domestic and foreign interest rates. The long-run elasticities, except for the relationship between M2 and domestic interest rate, are plausible. Interestingly, we find a negative relationship between real exchange rate and real money demand, suggesting evidence of currency substitution. We test for causal relationships and find that in the short-run only the real exchange rate Granger causes real M1 and real M2. Finally, we find that Indonesia's money demand functions are unstable. We conclude that money targeting is not an option for Bank Indonesian and that currency substitution should be curbed in order to ensure macroeconomic sustainability.

Environmental factors associated with adults' participation in physical activity- a review

Background: Promoting physical activity is a public health priority, and changes in the environmental contexts of adults’ activity choices are believed to be crucial. However, of the factors associated with physical activity, environmental influences are among the least understood. Method: Using journal scans and computerized literature database searches, we identified 19 quantitative studies that assessed the relationships with physical activity behavior of perceived and objectively determined physical environment attributes. Findings were categorized into those examining five categories: accessibility of facilities, opportunities for activity, weather, safety, and aesthetic attributes. Results: Accessibility, opportunities, and aesthetic attributes had significant associations with physical activity. Weather and safety showed less-strong relationships. Where studies pooled different categories to create composite variables, the associations were less likely to be statistically significant. Conclusions: Physical environment factors have consistent associations with physical activity behavior. Further development of ecologic and environmental models, together with behavior-specific and context-specific measurement strategies, should help in further  understanding of these associations. Prospective studies are required to identify possible causal relationships.

Regional-scale models for relating land cover to basin surface-water quality using remotely sensed data in a GIS

Plant-based management systems implementing deep-rooted, perennial vegetation have been identified as important in mitigating the spread of secondary dryland salinity due to its capacity to influence water table depth. The Glenelg Hopkins catchment is a highly modified watershed in the southwest region of Victoria, where dryland salinity management has been identified as a priority. Empirical relationships between the proportion of native vegetation and in-stream salinity were examined in the Glenelg Hopkins catchment using a linear regression approach. Whilst investigations of these relationships are not unique, this is the first comprehensive attempt to establish a link between land use and in-stream salinity in the study area. The results indicate that higher percentage land cover with native vegetation was negatively correlated with elevated in-stream salinity. This inverse correlation was consistent across the 3 years examined (1980, 1995, and 2002). Recognising the potential for erroneously inferring causal relationships, the methodology outlined here was both a time and cost-effective tool to inform management strategies at a regional scale, particularly in areas where processes may be operating at scales not easily addressed with on-site studies.

Investigation of the effects of microcomputers on the work of professional accountants

Information technology research over the past two decades suggests that the installation and use of computers fundamentally affects the structure and function of organisations and, m particular, the workers in these organizations. Following the release of the IBM Personal Computer in 1982, microcomputers have become an integral part of most work environments. The accounting services industry, in particular, has felt the impact of this ‘microcomputer revolution’. In Big Six accounting firms, there is almost one microcomputer for each professional accountant employed, Notwithstanding this, little research has been done on the effect of microcomputers on the work outcomes of professional accountants working in these firms. This study addresses this issue. It assesses, in an organisational setting, how accountant’ perceptions of ease of use and usefulness of microcomputers act on their computer anxieties, microcomputer attitudes and use to affect their job satisfaction and job performance. The research also examines how different types of human-computer interfaces affect the relationships between accountants' beliefs about microcomputer utility and ease of use, computer anxiety, microcomputer attitudes and microcomputer use. To attain this research objective, a conceptual model was first developed, The model indicates that work outcomes (job satisfaction and job performance) of professional accountants using microcomputers are influenced by users' perceptions of ease of use and usefulness of microcomputers via paths through (a) the level of computer anxiety experienced by users, (b) the general attitude of users toward using microcomputers, and (c) the extent to which microcomputers are used by individuals. Empirically testable propositions were derived from the model to test the postulated relationships between these constructs. The study also tested whether or not users of different human-computer interfaces reacted differently to the perceptions and anxieties they hold about microcomputers and their use in the workplace. It was argued that users of graphical interfaces, because of the characteristics of those interfaces, react differently to their perceptions and anxieties about microcomputers compared with users of command-line (or textual-based) interfaces. A passive-observational study in a field setting was used to test the model and the research propositions. Data was collected from 164 professional accountants working in a Big Six accounting firm in a metropolitan city in Australia. Structural equation modelling techniques were used to test the, hypothesised causal relationships between the components comprising the general research model. Path analysis and ordinary least squares regression was used to estimate the parameters of the model and analyse the data obtained. Multisample analysis (or stacked model analysis) using EQS was used to test the fit of the model to the data of the different human-computer interface groups and to estimate the parameters for the paths in those different groups. The results show that the research model is a good description of the data. The job satisfaction of professional accountants is directly affected by their attitude toward using microcomputers and by microcomputer use itself. However, job performance appears to be only directly affected by microcomputer attitudes. Microcomputer use does not directly affect job performance. Along with perceived ease of use and perceived usefulness, computer anxiety is shown to be an important determinant of attitudes toward using microcomputers - higher levels of computer anxiety negatively affect attitudes toward using microcomputers. Conversely, higher levels of perceived ease of use and perceived usefulness heighten individuals' positive attitudes toward using microcomputers. Perceived ease of use and perceived usefulness also indirectly affect microcomputer attitudes through their effect on computer anxiety. The results show that higher levels of perceived ease of use and perceived usefulness result in lower levels of computer anxiety. A surprising result from the study is that while perceived ease of use is shown to directly affect the level of microcomputer usage, perceived usefulness and attitude toward using microcomputers does not. The results of the multisample analysis confirm that the research model fits the stacked model and that the stacked model is a significantly better fit if specific parameters are allowed to vary between the two human-computer interface user groups. In general, these results confirm that an interaction exists between the type of human-computer interface (the variable providing the grouping) and the other variables in the model The results show a clear difference between the two groups in the way in which perceived ease of use and perceived usefulness affect microcomputer attitude. In the case of users of command-line interfaces, these variables appear to affect microcomputer attitude via an intervening variable, computer anxiety, whereas in the graphical interface user group the effect occurs directly. Related to this, the results show that perceived ease of use and perceived usefulness have a significant direct effect on computer anxiety in command-line interface users, but no effect at all for graphical interface users. Of the two exogenous variables only perceived ease of use, and that in the case of the command-line interface users, has a direct significant effect on extent of use of microcomputers. In summary, the research has contributed to the development of a theory of individual adjustment to information technology in the workplace. It identifies certain perceptions, anxieties and attitudes about microcomputers and shows how they may affect work outcomes such as job satisfaction and job performance. It also shows that microcomputer-interface types have a differential effect on some of the hypothesised relationships represented in the general model. Future replication studies could sample a broader cross-section of the microcomputer user community. Finally, the results should help Big Six accounting firms to maximise the benefits of microcomputer use by making them aware of how working with microcomputers affects job satisfaction and job performance.

Modelling the public health consequences of cannabis use in Australia

Aims: To detail and validate a simulation model that describes the dynamics of cannabis use, including its probable causal relationships with schizophrenia, road traffic accidents (RTA) and heroin/poly-drug use (HPU).

Methods: A Markov model with 17 health-states was constructed. Annual cycles were used to simulate the initiation of cannabis use, progression in use, reduction and complete remission. The probabilities of transition between health-states were derived from observational data. Following 10-year-old Australian children for 90 years, the model estimated age-specific prevalence for cannabis use. By applying the relative risks according to the extent of cannabis use, the age-specific prevalence of schizophrenia and HPU, and the annual RTA incidence and fatality rate were also estimated. Predictive validity of the model was tested by comparing modelled outputs with data from other credible sources. Sensitivity and scenario analyses were conducted to evaluate technical validity and face validity.

Results: The estimated cannabis use prevalence in individuals aged 10-65 years was 12.2% which comprised 27.4% weekly and 18.0% daily users. The modelled prevalence and age profile were comparable to the reported cross-sectional data. The model also provided good approximations to the prevalence of schizophrenia (Modelled: 4.75/1,000 persons vs Observed: 4.6/1,000 persons), HPU (3.2/1,000 vs 3.1/1,000) and the RTA fatality rate (8.1 per 100,000 vs 8.2 per 100,000). Sensitivity analyses and scenario analysis provided expected and explainable trends.

Conclusions: The validated model provides a valuable tool to assess the likely effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of interventions designed to affect patterns of cannabis use. It can be updated as new data becomes available and/or applied to other countries.

A prospective study of diet quality and mental health in adolescents

Objectives: A number of cross-sectional and prospective studies have now been published demonstrating inverse relationships between diet quality and the common mental disorders in adults. However, there are no existing prospective studies of this association in adolescents, the onset period of most disorders, limiting inferences regarding possible causal relationships.
Methods: In this study, 3040 Australian adolescents, aged 11–18 years at baseline, were measured in 2005–6 and 2007–8. Information on diet and mental health was collected by self-report and anthropometric data by trained researchers.
Results: There were cross-sectional, dose response relationships identified between measures of both healthy (positive) and unhealthy (inverse) diets and scores on the emotional subscale of the Pediatric Quality of Life Inventory (PedsQL), where higher scores mean better mental health, before and after adjustments for age, gender, socio-economic status, dieting behaviours, body mass index and physical activity. Higher healthy diet scores at baseline also predicted higher PedsQL scores at follow-up, while higher unhealthy diet scores at baseline predicted lower PedsQL scores at follow-up. Improvements in diet quality were mirrored by improvements in mental health over the follow-up period, while deteriorating diet quality was associated with poorer psychological functioning. Finally, results did not support the reverse causality hypothesis.
Conclusion: This study highlights the importance of diet in adolescence and its potential role in modifying mental health over the life course. Given that the majority of common mental health problems first manifest in adolescence, intervention studies are now required to test the effectiveness of preventing the common mental disorders through dietary modification.

Physical activity, leisure-time screen use and depression among children and young adolescents

Objectives:
Adolescent mental disorders remain a relatively neglected area of research, despite evidence that these conditions affect youth disproportionately. We examined associations between physical activity, leisure-time screen use and depressive symptoms among Australian children and adolescents.

Design:
Large cross-sectional observational study.

Methods:
Self-reported physical activity and leisure-time screen behaviours, and depressive symptoms using the Short Mood and Feeling Questionnaire were assessed in 8256 students aged 10–16 years (mean age = 11.5 years, SD = 0.8).

Results:
Thirty three percent of the sample reported moderate to high depressive symptoms, with rates higher among females (OR = 1.18; 95% CI: 1.02, 1.36; p = 0.001). Increased opportunities to be active at school outside class (OR = 0.70; 0.58, 0.85; p < 0.001), being active in physical education classes (OR = 0.77; 0.69, 0.86; p < 0.001), greater involvement in sports teams at school (OR = 0.77; 0.67, 0.88; p < 0.001) and outside of school (OR = 0.84; 0.73, 0.96; p = 0.01) were all independently associated with lower odds for depressive symptoms. Meeting recommended guidelines for physical activity (OR = 0.62; 0.44, 0.88; p = 0.007) and, for 12–14 year olds, leisure-time screen use (OR = 0.77; 0.59, 0.99; p = 0.04) were also independently associated with lower odds for depressive symptoms.

Conclusions:
Higher levels of physical activity among children and young adolescents, and lower levels of leisure-time screen use among young adolescents, are associated with lower depressive symptoms. Longitudinal studies are needed to understand the causal relationships between these variables.

Market effects on forecasting construction prices using vector error correction models

Construction price forecasting is an essential component to facilitate decision-making for construction contractors, investors and related financial institutions. Construction economists are increasingly interested in seeking a more analytical method to forecast construction prices. Although many studies have focused on construction price modelling and forecasting, few have considered the impacts of large-scale economic events and seasonality. In this study, an advanced multivariate modelling technique, namely the vector correction (VEC) model with dummy variables, was employed. The impacts of global economic events and seasonality are factored into the model to forecast the construction price in the Australian construction market. Research findings suggest that both long-run and dynamic short-term causal relationships exist among the price and levels of supply and demand in the construction market. These relationships drive the construction price and supply and demand, which interact with one another as a loop system. The reliability of forecasting models was examined by the mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) and the Theil's inequality coefficient U tests. The test results suggest that the conventional VEC model and the VEC model with dummy variable are both acceptable for forecasting the construction price, while the VEC model considering external impacts achieves higher prediction accuracy than the conventional VEC model. © 2014 © 2014 Taylor & Francis.

Environmental invitingness for transport-related cycling in middle-aged adults: a proof of concept study using photographs

Introduction: Current evidence on associations between modifiable environmental characteristics and transport-related cycling remains inconsistent. Most studies on these associations used questionnaires to determine environmental perceptions, but such tools may be subject to bias due to unreliable recall. Moreover, questionnaires only measure separate environmental characteristics, while real environments are a combination of different characteristics. To overcome these limitations, the present proof of concept study used panoramic photographs of cycling environments to capture direct responses to the physical environment. We examined which depicted environmental characteristics were associated to environments' invitingness for transportation cycling. Furthermore, interactions with gender and participants' cycling behavior were examined. Methods: Fifty-nine middle-aged adults were recruited through purposeful convenience sampling. During a home visit, participants took part in a structured interview assessing demographics and PA during the preceding seven days, followed by an intuitive choice task and a (cognitive) rating task, which both measured 40 photographed environments' invitingness to cycle along. Multi-level cross-classified analyses were conducted using MLwiN 2.26. Results: Both tasks' multivariate results showed that presence of vegetation was identified as the most important environmental characteristic to invite people for engaging in transportation cycling, even when the amount of vegetation was relatively small. In the bivariate analyzes, some differences between results of the cognitive rating task and the intuitive choice task were found, showing that invitingness measured by the rating task was associated with environmental maintenance and cycling infrastructure, whereas invitingness determined by the choice task was associated with more traffic-oriented characteristics. Moreover, only for the choice task's results, moderating effects of gender and participants' cycling behavior in the preceding week were observed. Conclusion: The present study provides proof of concept that capturing people's less cognitive, more intuitive responses to an environment's invitingness for transport-related cycling may be important for revealing environment-behavior associations. If replicated in future studies using larger samples, results of our innovative measurements with photographs, especially those on vegetation, can complete the existing knowledge on which environmental characteristics are important for transportation cycling in adults and could form a basis to inform health promoters and local policy makers. However, future studies replicating our study method in larger samples and other population subgroups are highly encouraged. Moreover, causal relationships should be explored.

Offending: drug-related expertise and decision making

Drug use is endemic within offender populations and, as a result, considerable heterogeneity can be found in drug-related crime. Expertise in drug-related offending covers an equally broad base from internal mental processes through skill acquisition to social interactions. This review considers decision making and expertise for crimes in the domains of direct causal effects (e.g., burglary) and non-causal relationships (e.g., apprehension avoidance, detection). Also considered is the notion of expertise as it applies to addiction, in particular the conscious and unconscious goal-directed behaviors articulated in the Selfish Goal model (Huang & Bargh, 2014) and a cool cognition/hot affect dual processing model of criminal decision making (Van Gelder, 2013). The review findings would suggest (a) the need for more focused research into whether expertise differs as a function of drug use and (b) a paradigm shift in terms of treatment for drug-using offenders.

Noninvasive stimulation of the temporoparietal junction: a systematic review

Imaging and lesion studies have suggested numerous roles for the temporoparietal junction (TPJ), for example in attention and neglect, social cognition, and self/other processing. These studies cannot establish causal relationships, and the importance and relevance of (and interrelationships between) proposed roles remain controversial. This review examined studies that use noninvasive transcranial stimulation (NTS) to explore TPJ function. Of 459 studies identified, 40 met selection criteria. The strengths and weaknesses of NTS-relevant parameters used are discussed, and methodological improvements suggested. These include the need for careful selection of stimulation sites and experimental tasks, and use of neuronavigation and concurrent functional activity measures. Without such improvements, overlapping and discrete functions of the TPJ will be difficult to disentangle. Nevertheless, the contributions of these studies to theoretical models of TPJ function are discussed, and the clinical relevance of TPJ stimulation explored. Some evidence exists for TPJ stimulation in the treatment of auditory hallucinations, tinnitus, and depersonalisation disorder. Further examination of the TPJ in conditions such as autism spectrum disorder is also warranted.

The role of technology on the dynamics of coal consumption-economic growth: new evidence from China

Coal comprises 70% of primary energy sources and 80% of electricity generation in China. This paper investigates the coal consumption-economic growth nexus in an integrated demand-supply framework over the period from 1978 to 2010. We incorporate the role of coal technology to explain the growth process. Using the Autoregressive Distributed Lag bounds testing approach, we find improvement in the coal-to-electricity efficiency indicator, a proxy for coal technology, causing almost a 35% increase in real GDP in the long run. The Toda-Yamamoto causality test indicates unidirectional causality from coal consumption to economic growth, feedback effects both for coal-to-electricity efficiency indicator to economic growth and coal demand and openness to coal consumption. For a robustness check, we forecast the validity of the causal relationships beyond the sample horizon using the generalised forecast error variance decomposition method. Our analysis suggests that improving overall efficiency in coal sector will continue to play a significant role in maintaining sustainable growth in China in the long run.

Coal - the black gold of economic growth in China: empirical evidence and the role of cleaner coal technologies in recent time

Coal comprises 70 per cent of China’s primary energy source and 80 per cent of China's electricity generation. This study investigates the long-run relationship between coal consumption-economic growth nexus considering both supply and demand side models in a multivariate framework over the period of 1978 and 2010. Our innovation in this paper is to include a coal-to-electricity efficiency indicator into the economic growth model ; and trade exposure in coal demand. Using Autoregressive Distributed Lag bounds testing approach, we find improvement in coal-to-efficiency indicator causes almost 35 per cent increase in real GDP in the long-run. The Toda-Yamamoto approach of causality test indicates unidirectional causality from coal consumption to economic growth; feedback effect both for coal-to-electricity efficiency indicator to economic growth and openness to coal consumption. For robustness check, using the generalised forecast error variance decomposition method we forecast the validity of causal relationships beyond the sample horizon. The paper suggests the role of advanced coal technologies will play a significant role along with other environmental and energy policies in maintaining sustainable economic growth in China .

Equity market price interactions between China and the other markets within the Chinese states equity markets

This study examines the cointegrating and long-term causal relationships of equity market prices in equity markets of Chinese states namely, Shanghai, Shenzhen, Hong Kong, Taiwan and Singapore. I cover the period between October 5, 1992 and March 20, 2006, taking into account both the Asian financial crisis and the opening-up of China’s equity markets in recent years. First, I analysis the cointegration by utilizing Johansen’s (1988) cointegration tests. I find that a long-term equilibrium relationship measured by cointegration has been established among Shanghai, Shenzhen, Hong Kong and Taiwanese markets and, to a lesser degree, between these markets and the Singapore market since 1998. Secondly, this study examines causality by exploring the bootstrapped Toda-Yamamoto non-causality tests. I find that there is strong evidence of a bi-directional causality between Shanghai and Shenzhen markets after 1998. Furthermore, I also find that there are more causal linkages between the Chinese states equity markets: two mainland Chinese markets, Hong Kong, Taiwan, and Singapore became more dependent on each other. The robustness of the above findings is confirmed by the use of a bootstrap test employed to test the validity of my results.