Non-AIDS defining cancers in the D:A:D Study - time trends and predictors of survival: a cohort study

Background Non-AIDS defining cancers (NADC) are an important cause of morbidity and mortality in HIV-positive individuals. Using data from a large international cohort of HIV-positive individuals, we described the incidence of NADC from 2004–2010, and described subsequent mortality and predictors of these. Methods Individuals were followed from 1st January 2004/enrolment in study, until the earliest of a new NADC, 1st February 2010, death or six months after the patient’s last visit. Incidence rates were estimated for each year of follow-up, overall and stratified by gender, age and mode of HIV acquisition. Cumulative risk of mortality following NADC diagnosis was summarised using Kaplan-Meier methods, with follow-up for these analyses from the date of NADC diagnosis until the patient’s death, 1st February 2010 or 6 months after the patient’s last visit. Factors associated with mortality following NADC diagnosis were identified using multivariable Cox proportional hazards regression. Results Over 176,775 person-years (PY), 880 (2.1%) patients developed a new NADC (incidence: 4.98/1000PY [95% confidence interval 4.65, 5.31]). Over a third of these patients (327, 37.2%) had died by 1st February 2010. Time trends for lung cancer, anal cancer and Hodgkin’s lymphoma were broadly consistent. Kaplan-Meier cumulative mortality estimates at 1, 3 and 5 years after NADC diagnosis were 28.2% [95% CI 25.1-31.2], 42.0% [38.2-45.8] and 47.3% [42.4-52.2], respectively. Significant predictors of poorer survival after diagnosis of NADC were lung cancer (compared to other cancer types), male gender, non-white ethnicity, and smoking status. Later year of diagnosis and higher CD4 count at NADC diagnosis were associated with improved survival. The incidence of NADC remained stable over the period 2004–2010 in this large observational cohort. Conclusions The prognosis after diagnosis of NADC, in particular lung cancer and disseminated cancer, is poor but has improved somewhat over time. Modifiable risk factors, such as smoking and low CD4 counts, were associated with mortality following a diagnosis of NADC.

Immunodeficiency at the start of combination antiretroviral therapy in low-, middle-, and high-income countries

OBJECTIVE To describe the CD4 cell count at the start of combination antiretroviral therapy (cART) in low-income (LIC), lower middle-income (LMIC), upper middle-income (UMIC), and high-income (HIC) countries. METHODS Patients aged 16 years or older starting cART in a clinic participating in a multicohort collaboration spanning 6 continents (International epidemiological Databases to Evaluate AIDS and ART Cohort Collaboration) were eligible. Multilevel linear regression models were adjusted for age, gender, and calendar year; missing CD4 counts were imputed. RESULTS In total, 379,865 patients from 9 LIC, 4 LMIC, 4 UMIC, and 6 HIC were included. In LIC, the median CD4 cell count at cART initiation increased by 83% from 80 to 145 cells/μL between 2002 and 2009. Corresponding increases in LMIC, UMIC, and HIC were from 87 to 155 cells/μL (76% increase), 88 to 135 cells/μL (53%), and 209 to 274 cells/μL (31%). In 2009, compared with LIC, median counts were 13 cells/μL [95% confidence interval (CI): -56 to +30] lower in LMIC, 22 cells/μL (-62 to +18) lower in UMIC, and 112 cells/μL (+75 to +149) higher in HIC. They were 23 cells/μL (95% CI: +18 to +28 cells/μL) higher in women than men. Median counts were 88 cells/μL (95% CI: +35 to +141 cells/μL) higher in countries with an estimated national cART coverage >80%, compared with countries with <40% coverage. CONCLUSIONS Median CD4 cell counts at the start of cART increased 2000-2009 but remained below 200 cells/μL in LIC and MIC and below 300 cells/μL in HIC. Earlier start of cART will require substantial efforts and resources globally.

Incidence Rate of Kaposi Sarcoma in HIV-Infected Patients on Antiretroviral Therapy in Southern Africa: A Prospective Multicohort Study.

BACKGROUND The risk of Kaposi sarcoma (KS) among HIV-infected persons on antiretroviral therapy (ART) is not well defined in resource-limited settings. We studied KS incidence rates and associated risk factors in children and adults on ART in Southern Africa. METHODS We included patient data of 6 ART programs in Botswana, South Africa, Zambia, and Zimbabwe. We estimated KS incidence rates in patients on ART measuring time from 30 days after ART initiation to KS diagnosis, last follow-up visit, or death. We assessed risk factors (age, sex, calendar year, WHO stage, tuberculosis, and CD4 counts) using Cox models. FINDINGS We analyzed data from 173,245 patients (61% female, 8% children aged <16 years) who started ART between 2004 and 2010. Five hundred and sixty-four incident cases were diagnosed during 343,927 person-years (pys). The overall KS incidence rate was 164/100,000 pys [95% confidence interval (CI): 151 to 178]. The incidence rate was highest 30-90 days after ART initiation (413/100,000 pys; 95% CI: 342 to 497) and declined thereafter [86/100,000 pys (95% CI: 71 to 105), >2 years after ART initiation]. Male sex [adjusted hazard ratio (HR): 1.34; 95% CI: 1.12 to 1.61], low current CD4 counts (≥500 versus <50 cells/μL, adjusted HR: 0.36; 95% CI: 0.23 to 0.55), and age (5-9 years versus 30-39 years, adjusted HR: 0.20; 95% CI: 0.05 to 0.79) were relevant risk factors for developing KS. INTERPRETATION Despite ART, KS risk in HIV-infected persons in Southern Africa remains high. Early HIV testing and maintaining high CD4 counts is needed to further reduce KS-related morbidity and mortality.

Monitoring and Switching of First-line Antiretroviral Therapy in sub-Saharan Africa: Collaborative Analysis of Adult Treatment Cohorts.

BACKGROUND HIV-1 viral load (VL) testing is recommended to monitor antiretroviral therapy (ART) but not universally available. We examined monitoring of first-line and switching to second-line ART in sub-Saharan Africa, 2004-2013. METHODS Adult HIV-1 infected patients starting combination ART in 16 countries were included. Switching was defined as a change from a non-nucleoside reverse-transcriptase inhibitor (NNRTI)-based regimen to a protease inhibitor (PI)-based regimen, with a change of ≥1 NRTI. Virological and immunological failures were defined per World Health Organization criteria. We calculated cumulative probabilities of switching and hazard ratios with 95% confidence intervals (CI) comparing routine VL monitoring, targeted VL monitoring, CD4 cell monitoring and clinical monitoring, adjusted for programme and individual characteristics. FINDINGS Of 297,825 eligible patients, 10,352 patients (3·5%) switched during 782,412 person-years of follow-up. Compared to CD4 monitoring hazard ratios for switching were 3·15 (95% CI 2·92-3·40) for routine VL, 1·21 (1·13-1·30) for targeted VL and 0·49 (0·43-0·56) for clinical monitoring. Overall 58.0% of patients with confirmed virological and 19·3% of patients with confirmed immunological failure switched within 2 years. Among patients who switched the percentage with evidence of treatment failure based on a single CD4 or VL measurement ranged from 32·1% with clinical to 84.3% with targeted VL monitoring. Median CD4 counts at switching were 215 cells/µl under routine VL monitoring but lower with other monitoring (114-133 cells/µl). INTERPRETATION Overall few patients switched to second-line ART and switching occurred late in the absence of routine viral load monitoring. Switching was more common and occurred earlier with targeted or routine viral load testing.

Risk charts to guide targeted HIV-1 viral load monitoring of ART: development and validation in patients from resource-limited settings.

BACKGROUND HIV-1 RNA viral load (VL) testing is recommended to monitor antiretroviral therapy (ART) but not available in many resource-limited settings. We developed and validated CD4-based risk charts to guide targeted VL testing. METHODS We modeled the probability of virologic failure up to 5 years of ART based on current and baseline CD4 counts, developed decision rules for targeted VL testing of 10%, 20% or 40% of patients in seven cohorts of patients starting ART in South Africa, and plotted cut-offs for VL testing on colour-coded risk charts. We assessed the accuracy of risk chart-guided VL testing to detect virologic failure in validation cohorts from South Africa, Zambia and the Asia-Pacific. FINDINGS 31,450 adult patients were included in the derivation and 25,294 patients in the validation cohorts. Positive predictive values increased with the percentage of patients tested: from 79% (10% tested) to 98% (40% tested) in the South African, from 64% to 93% in the Zambian and from 73% to 96% in the Asia-Pacific cohorts. Corresponding increases in sensitivity were from 35% to 68% in South Africa, from 55% to 82% in Zambia and from 37% to 71% in Asia-Pacific. The area under the receiver-operating curve increased from 0.75 to 0.91 in South Africa, from 0.76 to 0.91 in Zambia and from 0.77 to 0.92 in Asia Pacific. INTERPRETATION CD4-based risk charts with optimal cut-offs for targeted VL testing may be useful to monitor ART in settings where VL capacity is limited.

Age in antiretroviral therapy programmes in South Africa: a retrospective, multicentre, observational cohort study.

BACKGROUND As access to antiretroviral therapy (ART) expands, increasing numbers of older patients will start treatment and need specialised long-term care. However, the effect of age in ART programmes in resource-constrained settings is poorly understood. The HIV epidemic is ageing rapidly and South Africa has one of the highest HIV population prevalences worldwide. We explored the effect of age on mortality of patients on ART in South Africa and whether this effect is mediated by baseline immunological status. METHODS In this retrospective cohort analysis, we studied HIV-positive patients aged 16-80 years who started ART for the first time in six large South African cohorts of the International Epidemiologic Databases to Evaluate AIDS-Southern Africa collaboration, in KwaZulu-Natal, Gauteng, and Western Cape (two primary care clinics, three hospitals, and a large rural cohort). The primary outcome was mortality. We ascertained patients' vital status through linkage to the National Population Register. We used inverse probability weighting to correct mortality for loss to follow-up. We estimated mortality using Cox's proportional hazards and competing risks regression. We tested the interaction between baseline CD4 cell count and age. FINDINGS Between Jan 1, 2004, and Dec 31, 2013, 84,078 eligible adults started ART. Of these, we followed up 83,566 patients for 174,640 patient-years. 8% (1817 of 23,258) of patients aged 16-29 years died compared with 19% (93 of 492) of patients aged 65 years or older. The age adjusted mortality hazard ratio was 2·52 (95% CI 2·01-3·17) for people aged 65 years or older compared with those 16-29 years of age. In patients starting ART with a CD4 count of less than 50 cells per μL, the adjusted mortality hazard ratio was 2·52 (2·04-3·11) for people aged 50 years or older compared with those 16-39 years old. Mortality was highest in patients with CD4 counts of less than 50 cells per μL, and 15% (1103 of 7295) of all patients aged 50 years or older starting ART were in this group. The proportion of patients aged 50 years or older enrolling in ART increased with successive years, from 6% (290 of 4999) in 2004 to 10% (961 of 9657) in 2012-13, comprising 9% of total enrolment (7295 of 83 566). At the end of the study, 6304 (14%) of 44,909 patients still alive and in care were aged 50 years or older. INTERPRETATION Health services need reorientation towards HIV diagnosis and starting of ART in older individuals. Policies are needed for long-term care of older people with HIV. FUNDING National Institutes of Health (National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases), US Agency for International Development, and South African Centre for Epidemiological Modelling and Analysis.

Implementation and Operational Research: Risk Charts to Guide Targeted HIV-1 Viral Load Monitoring of ART: Development and Validation in Patients From Resource-Limited Settings.

BACKGROUND HIV-1 RNA viral load (VL) testing is recommended to monitor antiretroviral therapy (ART) but not available in many resource-limited settings. We developed and validated CD4-based risk charts to guide targeted VL testing. METHODS We modeled the probability of virologic failure up to 5 years of ART based on current and baseline CD4 counts, developed decision rules for targeted VL testing of 10%, 20%, or 40% of patients in 7 cohorts of patients starting ART in South Africa, and plotted cutoffs for VL testing on colour-coded risk charts. We assessed the accuracy of risk chart-guided VL testing to detect virologic failure in validation cohorts from South Africa, Zambia, and the Asia-Pacific. RESULTS In total, 31,450 adult patients were included in the derivation and 25,294 patients in the validation cohorts. Positive predictive values increased with the percentage of patients tested: from 79% (10% tested) to 98% (40% tested) in the South African cohort, from 64% to 93% in the Zambian cohort, and from 73% to 96% in the Asia-Pacific cohort. Corresponding increases in sensitivity were from 35% to 68% in South Africa, from 55% to 82% in Zambia, and from 37% to 71% in Asia-Pacific. The area under the receiver operating curve increased from 0.75 to 0.91 in South Africa, from 0.76 to 0.91 in Zambia, and from 0.77 to 0.92 in Asia-Pacific. CONCLUSIONS CD4-based risk charts with optimal cutoffs for targeted VL testing maybe useful to monitor ART in settings where VL capacity is limited.

Incidence of AIDS-Defining and Other Cancers in HIV-Positive Children in South Africa: Record Linkage Study.

BACKGROUND Little is known on the risk of cancer in HIV-positive children in sub-Saharan Africa. We examined incidence and risk factors of AIDS-defining and other cancers in pediatric antiretroviral therapy (ART) programs in South Africa. METHODS We linked the records of five ART programs in Johannesburg and Cape Town to those of pediatric oncology units, based on name and surname, date of birth, folder and civil identification numbers. We calculated incidence rates and obtained hazard ratios (HR) with 95% confidence intervals (CI) from Cox regression models including ART, sex, age, and degree of immunodeficiency. Missing CD4 counts and CD4% were multiply imputed. Immunodeficiency was defined according to World Health Organization 2005 criteria. RESULTS Data of 11,707 HIV-positive children were included in the analysis. During 29,348 person-years of follow-up 24 cancers were diagnosed, for an incidence rate of 82 per 100,000 person-years (95% CI 55-122). The most frequent cancers were Kaposi Sarcoma (34 per 100,000 person-years) and Non Hodgkin Lymphoma (31 per 100,000 person-years). The incidence of non AIDS-defining malignancies was 17 per 100,000. The risk of developing cancer was lower on ART (HR 0.29, 95%CI 0.09-0.86), and increased with age at enrolment (>10 versus <3 years: HR 7.3, 95% CI 2.2-24.6) and immunodeficiency at enrolment (advanced/severe versus no/mild: HR 3.5, 95%CI 1.1-12.0). The HR for the effect of ART from complete case analysis was similar but ceased to be statistically significant (p=0.078). CONCLUSIONS Early HIV diagnosis and linkage to care, with start of ART before advanced immunodeficiency develops, may substantially reduce the burden of cancer in HIV-positive children in South Africa and elsewhere.

Retention in care during the first 3 years of antiretroviral therapy for women in Malawi's option B+ programme: an observational cohort study

Background Studies of Malawi's option B+ programme for HIV-positive pregnant and breastfeeding women have reported high loss to follow-up during pregnancy and at the start of antiretroviral therapy (ART), but few data exist about retention during breastfeeding and after weaning. We examined loss to follow-up and retention in care in patients in the option B+ programme during their first 3 years on ART. Methods We analysed two data sources: aggregated facility-level data about patients in option B+ who started ART between Oct 1, 2011, and June 30, 2012, at 546 health facilities; and patient-level data from 20 large facilities with electronic medical record system for HIV-positive women who started ART between Sept 1, 2011, and Dec 31, 2013, under option B+ or because they had WHO clinical stages 3 or 4 disease or had CD4 counts of less than 350 cells per μL. We used facility-level data to calculate representative estimates of retention and loss to follow-up. We used patient-level data to study temporal trends in retention, timing of loss to follow-up, and predictors of no follow-up and loss to follow-up. We defined patients who were more than 60 days late for their first follow-up visit as having no follow-up and patients who were more than 60 days late for a subsequent visit as being lost to follow-up. We calculated proportions and cumulative probabilities of patients who had died, stopped ART, had no follow-up, were lost to follow-up, or were retained alive on ART for 36 months. We calculated odds ratios and hazard ratios to examine predictors of no follow-up and loss to follow-up. Findings Analysis of facility-level data about patients in option B+ who had not transferred to a different facility showed retention in care to be 76·8% (20 475 of 26 658 patients) after 12 months, 70·8% (18 306 of 25 849 patients) after 24 months, and 69·7% (17 787 of 25 535 patients) after 36 months. Patient-level data included 29 145 patients. 14 630 (50·2%) began treatment under option B+. Patients in option B+ had a higher risk of having no follow-up and, for the first 2 years of ART, higher risk of loss to follow-up than did patients who started ART because they had CD4 counts less than 350 cells per μL or WHO clinical stage 3 or 4 disease. Risk of loss to follow-up during the third year was low and similar for patients retained for 2 years. Retention rates did not change as the option B+ programme matured. Interpretation Our data suggest that pregnant and breastfeeding women who start ART immediately after they are diagnosed with HIV can be retained on ART through the option B+ programme, even after many have stopped breastfeeding. Interventions might be needed to improve retention in the first year on ART in option B+. Funding Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, Partnerships for Enhanced Engagement in Research Health, and National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases.

Influence of trust on HIV diagnosis and care practices

Many factors have been studied as potential correlates in delayed HIV diagnosis and delayed linkage to HIV healthcare. Few studies have analyzed the association of trust as a correlate in HIV diagnosis and HIV medical treatment delays. This study sought to assess the effect of patient trust in physicians and trust in the healthcare system, and whether diminished levels of trust affect delays in HIV diagnosis and/or linking to HIV healthcare, among a cohort of newly diagnosed HIV-infected persons, in Harris County, Texas.^ This study is a secondary data analysis from the Attitude and Beliefs and the Steps of HIV Care Study, also known as the Steps Study, a prospective observational cohort study. From January 2006 to October 2007 patients newly diagnosed with HIV infection and not yet in HIV primary care were recruited from publically funded HIV testing sites in Houston, Texas.^ Two outcomes were assessed in this study. The first outcome sought to determine the influence of trust and whether decreased levels of trust predicted delays in HIV diagnosis. Trust in physicians and trust in the healthcare system were measured via 2 validated trust scales. Trust scores of those with late diagnosis (CD4 counts <200 cells/mm3) were compared statistically with those with early diagnosis (CD4 counts ≥ 200 cells/mm3) in a cross sectional study design. Trust was not found to be predictive of delays in HIV diagnosis. ^ The second outcome utilized the same trust scales and a prospective cohort study design to assess whether there were differences in trust scores between those who successfully linked to HIV healthcare, compared to those who failed to link to HIV healthcare, within 6 months of diagnosis. Patients with higher trust in physicians and trust in the healthcare system were significantly more likely to be linked to HIV healthcare than those with lower trust.^ Overall, this study showed that among low-income persons with undiagnosed HIV infection, low trust is not a barrier to timely diagnosis of HIV infection. Trust may be a factor in promoting a prompt linkage to HIV healthcare among those who are newly diagnosed.^

Cytotoxic T lymphocytes and viral turnover in HIV type 1 infection

To understand the role of the immune system in limiting HIV type 1 replication, it is critical to know to what extent the rapid turnover of productively infected cells is caused by viral cytopathicity or by immune-mediated lysis. We show that uncultured peripheral blood mononuclear cells of many patients contain cytotoxic T lymphocytes (CTL) that lyse target cells—at plausible peripheral blood mononuclear cell-to-target ratios—with half-lives of less than 1 day. In 23 patients with CD4 counts ranging from 10 to 900 per μl, the average rate of CTL-mediated lysis corresponds to a target cell half-life of 0.7 day. We develop mathematical models to calculate the turnover rate of infected cells subjected to immune-mediated lysis and viral cytopathicity and to estimate the fraction of cells that are killed by CTL as opposed to virus. The models provide new interpretations of drug treatment dynamics and explain why the observed rate of virus decline is roughly constant for different patients. We conclude that in HIV type 1 infection, CTL-mediated lysis can reduce virus load by limiting virus production, with small effects on the half-life of infected cells.

Immune recovery in HIV-infected patients after candida esophagitis is impaired despite long-term antiretroviral therapy.

OBJECTIVE Candida esophagitis belongs to the most common AIDS-defining diseases, however, a comprehensive immune pathogenic concept is lacking. DESIGN We investigated the immune status of 37 HIV-1-infected patients from the Swiss HIV cohort study at diagnosis of Candida esophagitis, 1 year before, 1 year later and after 2 years of suppressed HIV RNA. We compared these patients to 3 groups: 37 HIV-1-infected patients without Candida esophagitis but similar CD4 counts as the patients at diagnosis (advanced HIV group), 15 HIV-1-infected patients with CD4 counts >500 cells/μl, CD4 nadir >350 cells/μl and suppressed HIV RNA under combination antiretroviral therapy (cART) (early cART group), and 20 healthy individuals. METHODS We investigated phenotype, cytokine production and proliferative capacity of different immune cells by flow cytometry and ELISpot. RESULTS We found that patients with Candida esophagitis had nearly abolished CD4 proliferation in response to C. albicans, significantly increased percentages of dysfunctional CD4 cells, significantly decreased cytotoxic NK-cell counts and peripheral innate lymphoid cells and significantly reduced IFN-γ and IL-17 production compared to the early cART group and healthy individuals. Most of these defects remained for more than 2 years despite viral suppression. The advanced HIV group without opportunistic infection showed partly improved immune recovery. CONCLUSIONS Our data indicate that Candida esophagitis in HIV-1-infected patients is caused by an accumulation of multiple, partly Candida-specific immunological defects. Long-term immune recovery is impaired, illustrating that specific immunological gaps persist despite cART. These data also support the rationale for early cART initiation to prevent irreversible immune defects.

HIV Status and Risk Factors for Hypertension in South African Adults

Thesis (Master's)--University of Washington, 2016-06

HIV infection and drugs of abuse: role of acute phase proteins

Background HIV infection and drugs of abuse such as methamphetamine (METH), cocaine, and alcohol use have been identified as risk factors for triggering inflammation. Acute phase proteins such as C-reactive protein (CRP) and serum amyloid A (SAA) are the biomarkers of inflammation. Hence, the interactive effect of drugs of abuse with acute phase proteins in HIV-positive subjects was investigated. Methods Plasma samples were utilized from 75 subjects with METH use, cocaine use, alcohol use, and HIV-positive alone and HIV-positive METH, cocaine, and alcohol users, and age-matched control subjects. The plasma CRP and SAA levels were measured by ELISA and western blot respectively and the CD4 counts were also measured. Results Observed results indicated that the CRP and SAA levels in HIV-positive subjects who are METH, cocaine and alcohol users were significantly higher when compared with either drugs of abuse or HIV-positive alone. The CD4 counts were also dramatically reduced in HIV-positive with drugs of abuse subjects compared with only HIV-positive subjects. Conclusions These results suggest that, in HIV-positive subjects, drugs of abuse increase the levels of CRP and SAA, which may impact on the HIV infection and disease progression.

CURB-65 and Other Markers of Illness Severity in Community-Acquired Pneumonia Among HIV-Positive Patients

As the relative burden of community-acquired bacterial pneumonia among HIV-positive patients increases, adequate prediction of case severity on presentation is crucial. We sought to determine what characteristics measurable on presentation are predictive of worse outcomes. We studied all admissions for community-acquired bacterial pneumonia over one year at a tertiary centre. Patient demographics, comorbidities, HIV-specific markers and CURB-65 scores on Emergency Department presentation were reviewed. Outcomes of interest included mortality, bacteraemia, intensive care unit admission and orotracheal intubation. A total of 396 patients were included: 49 HIV-positive and 347 HIV-negative. Mean CURB-65 score was 1.3 for HIV-positive and 2.2 for HIV-negative patients (p < 0.0001), its predictive value for mortality being maintained in both groups (p = 0.03 and p < 0.001, respectively). Adjusting for CURB-65 scores, HIV infection by itself was only associated with bacteraemia (adjusted odds ratio [AOR] 7.1, 95% CI [2.6-19.5]). Patients with < 200 CD4 cells/µL presented similar CURB-65 adjusted mortality (aOR 1.7, 95% CI [0.2-15.2]), but higher risk of intensive care unit admission (aOR 5.7, 95% CI [1.5-22.0]) and orotracheal intubation (aOR 9.1, 95% CI [2.2-37.1]), compared to HIV-negative patients. These two associations were not observed in the > 200 CD4 cells/µL subgroup (aOR 2.2, 95% CI [0.7-7.6] and aOR 0.8, 95% CI [0.1-6.5], respectively). Antiretroviral therapy and viral load suppression were not associated with different outcomes (p > 0.05). High CURB-65 scores and CD4 counts < 200 cells/µL were both associated with worse outcomes. Severity assessment scales and CD4 counts may both be helpful in predicting severity in HIV-positive patients presenting with community-acquired bacterial pneumonia.